China Trade Surplus Soared to $11.2 Billion in March

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• Former U.S. central bank chief Alan Greenspan said Wednesday that global economic imbalances might improve if some high-growth economies allowed their currencies to strengthen
  

• Japan's current account surplus grew 6.2 percent in February on year to 2.209 trillion yen before seasonal adjustment, the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday.
  The Bank of Japan decided to keep its interest rate near zero.
  

• YoY Retail sales in the U.K. were down 1.4% in March.
  

• The National Association of Realtors said that they expect new home sales to total 1.14 million units, down 10.9% YoY.
  

• Europe's cocoa grind totaled 308,775 tons in the first quarter of 2006, up 9.2% YoY.
  
  

• The International Coffee Organization reduced its estimate of world coffee production from 121 to 120 million bags for 2006-2007.
  

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• Federal Reserve governors said on Monday it was still unclear how much further interest rates need to rise to achieve correct levels of balance between growth and inflation.
  
  

• The International Monetary Fund expects the U.S. economy to grow by more than 3 percent this year, with the world economy growing at more than 4 percent, according to European newspaper reports on Monday.
  

• Japanese machinery orders, a key gauge of capital spending, rose 3.4% in February, a sign that strong investment by companies is likely to keep underpinning a steady recovery.
  

• YoY Singapore's GDP was up 9.1% in the first quarter.
  
  

• The first ETF (USO) allowing U.S. investors to engage directly (long and short) in the price of crude oil began trading on the American Stock Exchange.
  
  

• New ultralow-sulfur diesel fuel, which is due out later this year, should be ready on time, but it may be a tough, irritating and expensive, engineers from the federal government and two oil companies told a trucking industry conference.
  
  
  

• The USDA 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 2.351 to 2.301 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were unchanged at 565 million bushels.
  Wheat was reduced from 542 to 532 million bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 1.51 to 1.50 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 6.60 to 6.50 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 130 to 129 million tons.
  Soybeans were reduced from 54.4 to 53.8 million tons.
  Wheat was increased from 142.6 to 143.1 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 53.3 to 52.9 million bales.
  

• The USDA's estimate of Brazil and Argentina's soybean crop was reduced from 3.64 to 3.58 billion bushels, this is still 6% more than last year.
  
  
  

• The USDA lowered its estimate of Florida's 2005-2006 orange crop from 154 to 153 million boxes, but raised the anticipated juice yield from 1.58 to 1.61 gallons a box at 42 degrees Brix.
  
  

• The Brazilian government lowered its estimate of the forthcoming coffee crop from 42.0 to 40.6 million bags.
  

IMF warns high prices risk global crisis

High energy prices are “exacerbating” global economic imbalances, increasing the risks of a crisis, the International Monetary Fund will warn next week.

Regulators To Issue Mortgage Warning

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• It would be harder for the Federal Reserve to deal with a spike in inflation than a softening of growth, a Fed policy-maker said on Friday, suggesting the central bank may want to err on the side of higher interest rates.
  
  

• U.S. Payrolls rose 211,000 in March and the fell to 4.7% from 4.8% the previous month, the lowest in four years. YoY average hourly earnings were up 3.4%.
  

• U.S. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in February, the Commerce Department said Friday.
  

• Rail intermodal traffic on U.S. railroads rose 11%, while carload traffic inched up 0.6% last week compared with the same week a year ago, the Association of American Railroads said.
  

• Canada's unemployment rate improved from 6.4% to 6.3% in March, the lowest in 32 years.
  
  
  

• Germany's cocoa grind totaled 78,322 tons in the first quarter of 2006, up 35% YoY. For 2005, Germany's cocoa grind was up 10%.
  

• U.S. Consumers may face gasoline shortages or price hikes at the pump this summer because of fuel additive changes at refineries and a likely strong hurricane season, the U.S. Energy Secretary said on Friday.
  
  
  

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• The number of workers filing initial unemployment claims fell 5,000 last week to a five-year low, the Labor Department reported Thursday
  

• Australia's unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 5.0% in March, the lowest in 29 years.
  

• Japan's Cabinet Office said that its leading index dropped from 81.8% to 80.0% in February, still a sign of growth.
  

• Mexico Sugar Growers Union sees 05-06 sugar crop down 8.8% YoY at 5.288M MT
  
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 10 billion cubic feet to 1.695 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 36%.
  
  

• A swan in Scotland was confirmed with H5N1.
  
  

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• U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Wednesday said he expects U.S. payroll data on Friday to reflect a strong economy that will increase federal tax revenues and help to shrink budget shortfalls.
  
  

• Kansas City Federal Reserve President Hoenig was quoted saying the federal funds rate is "close" to where it needs to be.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of services increased from 60.1 to 60.5 in March, stronger than expected.
  

• An index of services in Europe stayed at 58.2 in March, the highest in five years.
  

• U.K.’s Factory production was down 0.2% in February, weaker than expected.
  
  
  

• The German government confirmed the deadly strain of Asian bird flu was found on a poultry farm near Leipzig. 10,000 animals will be slaughtered as a first step in trying to stop the spread of the virus.
  
  

• London Copper inventory is at 113,925 tons.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 2.1 million barrels to 342.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 4.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 1.7 million barrels.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumers' faith in the national economy flagged in the latest week after a short burst of confidence the previous week, ABC News and the Washington Post said on Tuesday.

Growth in federal spending unchecked
The federal government is currently spending 20.8 cents of every $1 the economy generates, up from 18.5 cents in 2001, ..

Some homeowners struggle to keep up with adjustable rates
Of the 7.7 million households who took out ARMs over the past two years to buy or refinance, up to 1 million could lose their homes through foreclosure over the next five years because they won't be able to afford their mortgage payments, and their homes will be worth less than they owe, according to Cagan's research.

The losses to the banking industry, he estimates, will exceed $100 billion. That's less than the damage from the savings-and-loan crisis in the 1990s, which cost the country $150 billion. "It will sting the economy, but it won't break it," he says.

Quick Overview

• Construction spending rose 0.8% in February to a record high level, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
  
  

• The Institute for Supply Management said Monday its index of U.S. manufacturing fell from 56.7 to 55.2 in March, following an increase in February.
  
  

• Reuters estimates that S&P 500 earnings increased 11% in the first quarter of 2006.
  
  

• Japan's Tankan survey of manufacturer sentiment fell from 21 to 20.
  

• Japan's unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.1% in February.
  

• An index of manufacturing activity in the U.K. fell from 51.5 to 50.8 in March.
  

• Europe's manufacturing index rose from 54.5 to 56.1 in March, the best in over five.
  

• The tiny biodiesel industry received a boost from Big Oil on Monday when a major petroleum refiner, Motiva Enterprises LLC, began blending the soy-based alternative with traditional motor fuel at a Dallas terminal
  

Fed kills a key inflation gauge

The U.S. Federal Reserve made big news at the end of March. And almost nobody noticed.

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• U.S. factory orders rose 0.2% in February following a decline the previous month, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
  

• U.S. personal incomes were up 0.3% in February
  

• Consumer spending rose 0.1% in February, the smallest increase in six months.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 86.7 to 88.9 in March.
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Manager's index rose from 54.9 to 60.4 in March, the highest reading this year.
  

• Australian Retail sales were up 0.7% in February, more than expected.
  

• YoY Canada's GDP was up 0.2% in January and up 3.3%
  

• YoY Japans consumer prices were up 0.4% in February.
  
  
  

• The USDA's 2006-2007 planting estimate for:
  Corn is 78.0 million acres, down 5% YoY -- less than expected.
  Soybeans is 76.9 million acres, up 7% YoY and the most on record.
  Wheat is 57.1 million acres, down slightly YoY and the lowest since 1972.
  Cotton is 14.6 million acres, up 3% YoY.
  

• As of March 1st, U.S. grain stocks of:
  Corn totaled 6.99 billion bushels, up 3% YoY.
  Soybeans totaled 1.67 billion bushels, up 21% YoY.
  Wheat totaled 972 million bushels, down 1% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that there were 60.104 million hogs and pigs in the U.S. as of March 1, up 0.7% YoY.
  

Updates will resume March 31st.

Silver ETF moves closer to approval
The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved a rule change for a silver exchange-traded fund in registration from Barclays Global Investor that would allow the product to list on the American Stock Exchange.
The ETF, however, has not yet been cleared to launch by regulators.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. producer price index fell 1.4% in February, the largest decline since April 2003, as food and fuel prices fell, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Excluding food and energy producer prices were up 0.3%.
  
  

• The Associated Press said that Cyclone Larry ruined A$200 million of Australia's sugarcane crop or roughly 10% of the country's total production.
  

• Canada's composite index of leading indicators was up 0.2% in February. Retail sales were up 1.4% in January.
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 2.0% in February.
  

Quick Overview

• The Conference Board's index of U.S. leading indicators was down 0.2% in February, to 139.0.
  

• With the steady trend of rising core inflation in Japan "here to stay," it's not too early for Japan to change its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, a Bank of Japan official said on Monday.
  

• German producer-price inflation speeded up 5.9% in February -- the fastest pace in almost 24 years.
  

• The U.K. posted a budget shortfall of 2.27 billion pounds
  

• Statistics Canada said that foreign buys of Canadian securities totaled C$3.0 billion in January while Canadians bought C$3.7 billion in foreign securities.
  

The Torture Judge
In a startling, ominous decision—ignored by most of the press around the country—Federal District Judge David Trager, in the Eastern District of New York, has dismissed a lawsuit by a Canadian citizen, Maher Arar, who, during a stopover at Kennedy Airport on the way home to Canada after vacation, was kidnapped by CIA agents.

A Peculiar Politician
a naïf who voted against the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act. On principle!

The Boston Legal fan website
The James Spader monologue video "Stick It"can still be seen here.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was weaker than expected at 86.7.
  

• U.S. Industrial production was up 0.7% in February.
  

• Canada’s wholesale sales were up 1.8% in January.
  
  

• North American-based semiconductor equipment sellers posted a book-to-bill ratio of 1.01 in February, up from 0.97 in January, according to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group. This is the first time above parity since August of 2004.
  
  

• General Motors Corp.'s disclosures that it lost $2 billion more last year than previously reported and needs more time to sort out accounting errors.

GOP Senators Submit Bill Legalizing Warrentless Spying

Debt on top of debt
Congress raised the limit on the federal government's borrowing by $781 billion yesterday, and then lawmakers voted to spend well over $100 billion on the war in Iraq, hurricane relief, education, health care, transportation and heating assistance for the poor without making offsetting budget cuts.

(DEBT, n. An ingenious substitute for the chain and whip of the slave- driver. The Devil's Dictionary)

Commodity Strategists: Rally to Resume, Lehman Says
Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices,'' Malvey, Lehman's New York-based chief global fixed- income strategist, said today in an interview. ``It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.''

Commodity Strategists: Rally to Resume, Lehman Says
``Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices,'' Malvey, Lehman's New York-based chief global fixed- income strategist, said today in an interview. ``It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.''

Commodity Strategists: Rally to Resume, Lehman Says
``Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices,'' Malvey, Lehman's New York-based chief global fixed- income strategist, said today in an interview. ``It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.''

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices were up 0.1% in February and up 3.6% YoY
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional business index fell from 15.4 to 12.3 in March
  

• U.S. Housing starts were at an annual rate of 2.120 million units in February, down 7.9% from January's pace.
  

• Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui sought on Thursday to calm market expectations of an early rate hike, saying the central bank will keep rates near zero for a while despite ending its ultra easy policy last week.
  

• Retail sales in the U.K. were up 0.5% in February and up 2.1% YoY,
  
  

• YoY Canada’s consumer prices were up 2.2% in February.
  
  

• YoY consumer prices in the Euro zone were up 2.3% in February .
  
  

• The Swiss National Bank raised rates from 1.00% to 1.25%
  

• Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds rose by $2.45 billion in the latest week to $856.43 billion, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.
  

• The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were at 5.193 million bags. Up 243,980 bags in February.
  

• The US DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 55 billion cubic feet to 1.832 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 32%.
  

Every Man Needs a Theory
While we shared many of their views, we saw the war as a historical necessity. Every empire needs to find a way to look ridiculous; it has to lose its pants, in other words, when the theory holding it up finally disintegrates. Nature loathes a monopoly. A successful empire has a monopoly on the use of organized force. Nature conspires against it, tries to undermine it and eventually ruins it. Every great empire also needs to take Baghdad at one time or another. The English took it. The Mongols took it. The Romans took it several times. Why shouldn't we?

Wouldn't that be a good way to weaken the empire, too? It would cost a fortune, stir up enemies, and tie up the imperial army in a futile campaign against nobody of importance. If you wanted to destroy the U.S. Empire, it would seem to be the perfect project. All nature needed to accomplish her dirty plans was an American administration foolish enough to undertake it. In Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld, she found her stooges.

US backs first-strike attack plan
The US will not shy away from attacking regimes it considers hostile, or groups it believes have nuclear or chemical weapons, the White House has confirmed.