Some homeowners struggle to keep up with adjustable rates
Of the 7.7 million households who took out ARMs over the past two years to buy or refinance, up to 1 million could lose their homes through foreclosure over the next five years because they won't be able to afford their mortgage payments, and their homes will be worth less than they owe, according to Cagan's research.

The losses to the banking industry, he estimates, will exceed $100 billion. That's less than the damage from the savings-and-loan crisis in the 1990s, which cost the country $150 billion. "It will sting the economy, but it won't break it," he says.

Quick Overview

• Construction spending rose 0.8% in February to a record high level, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
  
  

• The Institute for Supply Management said Monday its index of U.S. manufacturing fell from 56.7 to 55.2 in March, following an increase in February.
  
  

• Reuters estimates that S&P 500 earnings increased 11% in the first quarter of 2006.
  
  

• Japan's Tankan survey of manufacturer sentiment fell from 21 to 20.
  

• Japan's unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.1% in February.
  

• An index of manufacturing activity in the U.K. fell from 51.5 to 50.8 in March.
  

• Europe's manufacturing index rose from 54.5 to 56.1 in March, the best in over five.
  

• The tiny biodiesel industry received a boost from Big Oil on Monday when a major petroleum refiner, Motiva Enterprises LLC, began blending the soy-based alternative with traditional motor fuel at a Dallas terminal
  

Fed kills a key inflation gauge

The U.S. Federal Reserve made big news at the end of March. And almost nobody noticed.

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders rose 0.2% in February following a decline the previous month, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
  

• U.S. personal incomes were up 0.3% in February
  

• Consumer spending rose 0.1% in February, the smallest increase in six months.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 86.7 to 88.9 in March.
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Manager's index rose from 54.9 to 60.4 in March, the highest reading this year.
  

• Australian Retail sales were up 0.7% in February, more than expected.
  

• YoY Canada's GDP was up 0.2% in January and up 3.3%
  

• YoY Japans consumer prices were up 0.4% in February.
  
  
  

• The USDA's 2006-2007 planting estimate for:
  Corn is 78.0 million acres, down 5% YoY -- less than expected.
  Soybeans is 76.9 million acres, up 7% YoY and the most on record.
  Wheat is 57.1 million acres, down slightly YoY and the lowest since 1972.
  Cotton is 14.6 million acres, up 3% YoY.
  

• As of March 1st, U.S. grain stocks of:
  Corn totaled 6.99 billion bushels, up 3% YoY.
  Soybeans totaled 1.67 billion bushels, up 21% YoY.
  Wheat totaled 972 million bushels, down 1% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that there were 60.104 million hogs and pigs in the U.S. as of March 1, up 0.7% YoY.
  

Updates will resume March 31st.

Silver ETF moves closer to approval
The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved a rule change for a silver exchange-traded fund in registration from Barclays Global Investor that would allow the product to list on the American Stock Exchange.
The ETF, however, has not yet been cleared to launch by regulators.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. producer price index fell 1.4% in February, the largest decline since April 2003, as food and fuel prices fell, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Excluding food and energy producer prices were up 0.3%.
  
  

• The Associated Press said that Cyclone Larry ruined A$200 million of Australia's sugarcane crop or roughly 10% of the country's total production.
  

• Canada's composite index of leading indicators was up 0.2% in February. Retail sales were up 1.4% in January.
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 2.0% in February.
  

Quick Overview

• The Conference Board's index of U.S. leading indicators was down 0.2% in February, to 139.0.
  

• With the steady trend of rising core inflation in Japan "here to stay," it's not too early for Japan to change its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, a Bank of Japan official said on Monday.
  

• German producer-price inflation speeded up 5.9% in February -- the fastest pace in almost 24 years.
  

• The U.K. posted a budget shortfall of 2.27 billion pounds
  

• Statistics Canada said that foreign buys of Canadian securities totaled C$3.0 billion in January while Canadians bought C$3.7 billion in foreign securities.
  

The Torture Judge
In a startling, ominous decision—ignored by most of the press around the country—Federal District Judge David Trager, in the Eastern District of New York, has dismissed a lawsuit by a Canadian citizen, Maher Arar, who, during a stopover at Kennedy Airport on the way home to Canada after vacation, was kidnapped by CIA agents.

A Peculiar Politician
a naïf who voted against the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act. On principle!

The Boston Legal fan website
The James Spader monologue video "Stick It"can still be seen here.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was weaker than expected at 86.7.
  

• U.S. Industrial production was up 0.7% in February.
  

• Canada’s wholesale sales were up 1.8% in January.
  
  

• North American-based semiconductor equipment sellers posted a book-to-bill ratio of 1.01 in February, up from 0.97 in January, according to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group. This is the first time above parity since August of 2004.
  
  

• General Motors Corp.'s disclosures that it lost $2 billion more last year than previously reported and needs more time to sort out accounting errors.

GOP Senators Submit Bill Legalizing Warrentless Spying

Debt on top of debt
Congress raised the limit on the federal government's borrowing by $781 billion yesterday, and then lawmakers voted to spend well over $100 billion on the war in Iraq, hurricane relief, education, health care, transportation and heating assistance for the poor without making offsetting budget cuts.

(DEBT, n. An ingenious substitute for the chain and whip of the slave- driver. The Devil's Dictionary)

Commodity Strategists: Rally to Resume, Lehman Says
Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices,'' Malvey, Lehman's New York-based chief global fixed- income strategist, said today in an interview. ``It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.''

Commodity Strategists: Rally to Resume, Lehman Says
``Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices,'' Malvey, Lehman's New York-based chief global fixed- income strategist, said today in an interview. ``It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.''

Commodity Strategists: Rally to Resume, Lehman Says
``Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices,'' Malvey, Lehman's New York-based chief global fixed- income strategist, said today in an interview. ``It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.''

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices were up 0.1% in February and up 3.6% YoY
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional business index fell from 15.4 to 12.3 in March
  

• U.S. Housing starts were at an annual rate of 2.120 million units in February, down 7.9% from January's pace.
  

• Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui sought on Thursday to calm market expectations of an early rate hike, saying the central bank will keep rates near zero for a while despite ending its ultra easy policy last week.
  

• Retail sales in the U.K. were up 0.5% in February and up 2.1% YoY,
  
  

• YoY Canada’s consumer prices were up 2.2% in February.
  
  

• YoY consumer prices in the Euro zone were up 2.3% in February .
  
  

• The Swiss National Bank raised rates from 1.00% to 1.25%
  

• Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds rose by $2.45 billion in the latest week to $856.43 billion, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.
  

• The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were at 5.193 million bags. Up 243,980 bags in February.
  

• The US DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 55 billion cubic feet to 1.832 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 32%.
  

Every Man Needs a Theory
While we shared many of their views, we saw the war as a historical necessity. Every empire needs to find a way to look ridiculous; it has to lose its pants, in other words, when the theory holding it up finally disintegrates. Nature loathes a monopoly. A successful empire has a monopoly on the use of organized force. Nature conspires against it, tries to undermine it and eventually ruins it. Every great empire also needs to take Baghdad at one time or another. The English took it. The Mongols took it. The Romans took it several times. Why shouldn't we?

Wouldn't that be a good way to weaken the empire, too? It would cost a fortune, stir up enemies, and tie up the imperial army in a futile campaign against nobody of importance. If you wanted to destroy the U.S. Empire, it would seem to be the perfect project. All nature needed to accomplish her dirty plans was an American administration foolish enough to undertake it. In Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld, she found her stooges.

US backs first-strike attack plan
The US will not shy away from attacking regimes it considers hostile, or groups it believes have nuclear or chemical weapons, the White House has confirmed.