Thursday, September 22, 2005

EPA Proposes Easing Reporting Requirements on Toxic Pollution

The looser reporting requirements are intended to let off the hook as many as a third of the 23,000 companies that now report their pollution to the government, according to the EPA.

Build a "BETTER" Bush
Oil Rigs in the Gulf & Rita

Quick Overview

  • The index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.2 % in August to 137.6 for a second straight month as rising gasoline prices lowered consumer confidence even before Hurricane Katrina made landfall, the Conference Board reported Thursday.

  • The number of U.S. workers filing initial unemployment benefits jumped by 8,000 last week to 432,000, the highest level in more than two years, following dislocations and job losses in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. (103,000 of those claims were said to be related to Hurricane Katrina).

  • Saudi Arabia's foreign minister on Thursday rejected suggestions of an oil shortage and said prices should drop to $40 to $45 a barrel from well over $60.

  • Reuters is reporting that 21% of U.S. refinery capacity is closed - ten refineries in Texas and one in Louisiana.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground natural gas supplies were up 74 billion cubic feet last week to 2.932 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down 3% from a year ago

  • Archer Daniels Midland said that they plan to increase their ethanol production by 500 million gallons by the year 2008.

  • November lumber closed up $10 it’s max daily limit due to the hurricanes.

  • Brazil's jobless rate held steady at a three-year-low in August and inflation slowed, official data showed on Thursday.

  • Japan's trade surplus shrank 80 percent in August from a year earlier, much more than economists had expected as high oil prices boosted import costs, but firm exports suggested that an economic recovery remained on track.

  • Canada's consumer price index was up 2.6% in August from a year ago, the biggest gain in two years. Excluding energy, consumer prices were up 1.6% in August from a year ago.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005


Fed May Sacrifice Growth to Prevent Inflation
``When push comes to shove, the Fed will opt in an unmistakable fashion to preserve the inflation achievements they have,'' said Anthony Karydakis, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. ``They will be very willing to sacrifice some growth for a while to keep inflation under control.''

Quick Overview

  • The DOE said that:
    Crude oil supplies were down 300,000 barrels at 308.1 million barrels.
    Unleaded gasoline supplies were up 3.4 million barrels
    Heating oil supplies were up 1.7 million barrels.
    Gasoline demand over the past four weeks was down 2.1% from a year ago.
    The DOE also said that last week refineries were operating at 90.8% of capacity

  • The USDA said that there were 22.1 million pounds of frozen pork bellies in storage on August 31st, up 45% YoY, but down substantially from last month's 50.3 million pounds.

  • The USDA said that Frozen pork totaled 417.7 million pounds, up 9% YoY.

  • The USDA said there were 1.40 billion pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage as of August 31st, down 23% YoY.

  • The world economy is set to grow a swift 4.3 percent this year and next -- above the 3.9 percent average of the past decade -- despite higher oil prices and a battering from Hurricane Katrina, the IMF said on Wednesday.

  • Canada's retail sales hit a new high of C$31.3 billion in July, up 1.5% on the month and up 7.9% from a year ago.

  • Consumer spending in France was up 1.9% in August.

Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Quick Overview

  • The Federal Reserve on Tuesday boosted the fed funds rate for the 11th straight time and signaled that more rate hikes were probable even as the country recovers from the destructive effects of Hurricane Katrina.

  • Australia, Brazil and Thailand have accused the European Union
    of failing to comply with a World Trade Organization decision that its
    subsidies to sugar producers were illegal.

  • A group of commercial fishermen has filed a suit over alleged damage to fisheries caused by oil that spilled following Hurricane Katrina.

  • Land prices in central Tokyo rose for the first time since 1990 in the 12 months ended July 1.

  • OPEC on Tuesday offered up every last barrel of its spare production. OPEC agreed to keep their production at 28.0 million barrels a day, but will make another 2.0 million barrels of crude oil a day available for three months beginning on October 1st.

  • New construction on US housing units slipped 1.3 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.009 million units. The decline was slightly larger than expected. Economists were calling for a decline to 2.025 million, from 2.042 million in July.

  • Texas refineries are still in Rita's anticipated path for later this week.

  • Canada's composite index of leading indicators increased 0.3% in August to 206.3. Wholesale sales were down 0.5% in July to C$39.7 billion, the first decline in six months.

  • Chile and China could sign a free trade agreement as early as November, linking the world's biggest producer and consumer of copper, Chilean President Ricardo Lagos told Reuters on Tuesday.

  • Italy's unemployment rate dropped from 7.8% to 7.7% in the second quarter, the lowest in over a decade.
US fiscal fix needed for global adjustment--study
A balanced U.S. budget, a 20 percent decline in the dollar and a sharp rise in Asian currencies are needed to cut the U.S. current account gap to a sustainable level, a study released on Monday said.

Monday, September 19, 2005

Rising cost of debt much more dangerous
In the 1970s, the Fed tried to accommodate both higher energy costs and war by creating more, not less, availability of credit. The result was inflation. Even with Alan Greenspan gone, they're not likely to make that mistake again
Greenspan, Fed face new 'conundrum' on rate hike
"All the bets are on a Fed rate hike," said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. "Futures are priced 86 percent of the way for a Fed rate hike this Tuesday."

Quick Overview

  • With fallout from the Hurricane Katrina disaster expected to slow economic growth over the rest of the year, the Federal Reserve could postpone its campaign of raising interest rates, the Associated Press reported Monday. .. And Rita may be on the way

  • Some federal lawmakers are considering delaying spending projects, including within the $286 billion federal highway act signed into law in August, in the wake of massive bills facing the country because of Hurricane Katrina, the Associated Press reported.

  • The USDA's good to excellent crop ratings for:
    Corn was 52%, up from 51% last week.
    Soybeans were 53%, down from 54% last week.
    Cotton was 62%, down from 65% last week.

Saturday, September 17, 2005

Clues to a Hedge Fund's Collapse
All three men knew the situation was dire at Bayou - the funds' losses had vastly overwhelmed their gains for more than two years. Something had to be done, and fast.
Chart of the day
Gold Point & Figure


Solvency: Gone With the Wind
There are a lot of maps out there. Too many of them are treasure maps.

You don’t need a treasure map. You need an escape route.

You can’t read all the maps. You have to decide which maps make sense and which maps you can understand. Then you have to decide to take action in terms of what the maps seem to indicate.

Some maps are clear. The map governing the fiscal reality of Social Security/Medicare is crystal clear. The financial well will start running dry in 2011, when the post-World War II baby boomers start retiring by the millions. That is six years away. Social Security will still produce a surplus until 2017, but Medicare won’t. The two programs are linked at the hip politically.

The Federal government’s red ink is already flowing. It will get steadily worse six years from now. Then it will become a flood.

Friday, September 16, 2005

E-mail suggests government seeking to blame groups

The Clarion-Ledger has obtained a copy of an internal e-mail the U.S. Department of Justice sent out this week to various U.S. attorneys' offices: "Has your district defended any cases on behalf of the (U.S.) Army Corps of Engineers against claims brought by environmental groups seeking to block or otherwise impede the Corps work on the levees protecting New Orleans? If so, please describe the case and the outcome of the litigation."
Chinese less keen to hold US dollars

Fewer people deposited dollars in the three months to the end of August and more people withdrew them, the survey found.

No Bankruptcy Relief for Katrina Victims
Rep. Sensenbrenner, Who Voted Against Hurricane Relief, Refuses to Hold Hearings

"These new requirements, coupled with strict deadlines for production upon the penalty of an automatic dismissal are difficult for the most organized person to meet, never mind someone who has had his or her home destroyed by Katrina," said the statement.

Sensenbrenner was one of 11 Republicans who voted against a massive relief package for Katrina victims.
Current account gap shrinks

The current account, the broadest measure of U.S. trade with the rest of the world as it includes investment flows, ran at 6.3 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter compared with 6.5 percent in the previous three months, a Commerce Department official said.

Quick Overview

  • Crude oil prices fell for the fifth day in six on signs that higher prices are slowing global demand. OPEC may decide to increase oil production by another 500,000 barrels a day when they meet in Vienna on Monday

  • The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September fell to 76.9 from 89.1 in August, the biggest one-month drop since 1980.

  • Argentina's central bank may increase gold reserves as a hedge against inflation and protection against a financial crisis, Juan Ignacio Basco, bank head of market operations, said yesterday in London

  • U.S. Benchmark gold futures closed at a 17-year high on Friday because of a robust demand for bullion. "Fiat currencies at 17-year low."

Thursday, September 15, 2005

Quick Overview

  • The global financial system has strengthened over the past year, giving it a substantial cushion against potential financial shocks, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

  • OPEC, whose members pump more than a third of the world's oil, lowered its forecast for growth in world oil demand for a fifth consecutive month, citing lower predicted demand in the United States and China, Bloomberg reported.

  • Prices paid by consumers rose 0.5% in August, while the so-called "core" consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1%, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

  • Manufacturing growth in New York state declined this month as costs rose, according to a monthly survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Thursday.

  • The number of U.S. workers filing initial unemployment benefits jumped by 71,000 last week in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the biggest jump in more than nine years.

  • Business inventories fell 0.5% in July, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

  • The Canadian Press said today the agricultural losses from Hurricane Katrina total $3 billion with the largest part coming from the timber industry. $2 billion losses are in Mississippi and $1 billion are in Louisiana. Damage also occurred to cotton fields, pecan trees, poultry, cattle, and dairy operations.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 89 billion cubic feet last week to 2.758 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are now down 4%. The U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) said that 34% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico is still closed.

  • Chinese fixed-asset investment in August grew a stronger-than-expected 28.5 percent from a year earlier, as heavy spending on energy and transportation offset a cooling property sector.

  • Retail sales in the U.K. were flat in August, weaker than expected.

  • The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks totaled 4.33 million bags at the end of August, down 121,189 bags for the month.

Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Home Prices Jump 17% in Southland

The median home price in the six-county region rose 17% to $476,000 last month compared with the year-earlier period, after year-over-year increases of 16.7% in July and 15% in June, according to DataQuick Information

Quick Overview

  • Retail sales fell 2.1% in August from the previous month, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday--the biggest drop in four years.

  • Production at U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose a less-than-expected 0.1% in August, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of total mortgage applications for home purchase and refinancing loans fell 1.4 percent to 760.6 in the week ended September 9. The index rose 6.8 percent in the previous week

  • The U.S. DoE said that:
    Crude Oil supplies were down 6.6 million barrels last week to 308.4 million barrels.
    Unleaded gasoline supplies were up 1.9 million barrels
    Heating oil supplies were up 400,000 barrels.
    The DOE also said that the nation's refineries were operating at 87.3% of capacity, up from 86.8% the week before.

  • Repairing roads and bridges damaged by Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf Coast states could cost as much as $5 billion, Department of Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta said Tuesday after touring the region, Bloomberg reported.

  • Reuters news reported that the Port of New Orleans is gradually returning to business after being closed for two weeks. They said that two of the port's 27 terminals were in service and operations are expected to slowly resume.

  • Argentine stocks closed at a record high on Wednesday, led by a rise in banking shares on speculation of a possible share buyback for BBVA Banco Frances by its Spanish parent, traders said

  • The Bank of Japan is "very close" to ending its ultra-loose monetary policy, its deputy governor said yesterday, although he stressed that current policy would be maintained until deflationary expectations were eradicated.

  • Unemployment in the U.K remained at 4.7%.

  • Canada's manufacturing shipments were down 1.4% in July to C$50.1 billion.

  • YoY China's industrial production was up 16%.
Economic lunacy

According to a couple of poorly trained economists, there's a bright side to Hurricane Katrina's destruction...
There Are No Commies in China
Fred just finished the last bag-drag back from China...

Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Quick Overview

  • U.S. consumer confidence in the economy fell to its lowest level since June 2004, driven down by the concerns over high gasoline prices and Hurricane Katrina's destruction along the Gulf Coast, ABC News and the Washington Post said on Tuesday.

  • U.S. producer prices were up 0.6% in August and up 5.1% YoY. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were unchanged for the month.

  • U.S. exports increased somewhat in July to $106.2 billion while imports fell a little to $164.2 billion.

  • Hurricane Katrina's aftermath will have an isolated effect on the hiring prospects of U.S. employers, with nearly a third expecting to add to their payrolls in the fourth quarter, according to a survey by Manpower Inc., the Associated Press reported Tuesday.

  • The federal government is beginning what some planners are calling one of the biggest bursts of federal housing development in U.S. history, the New York Times reported Tuesday.

  • The U.S. government is considering temporarily reducing the tariff on Canadian lumber to make more building supplies available after Hurricane Katrina.


  • The USDA's good to excellent crop rating for:
    Corn was 51%, unchanged from a week ago.
    Soybeans were 54%, unchanged from a week ago.
    Cotton was 65%, up from 64% a week ago.

  • YoY Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 2.4% in August -- the most in eight years.

  • Canadian exports totaled C$38.0 billion in July, up 2.1% on the month. Imports totaled C$32.2 billion, down 0.5% in July.

  • YoY Retail sales in China were up 12.5% in August.

  • The cost of shipping commodities such as iron ore, coal and crude oil is poised to rise through the rest of this year as Chinese steel mills and refineries increase imports, according to shipbroker Lorentzen & Stemoco said, Bloomberg reports .

Monday, September 12, 2005


A Monopoly on Life
Gandhi: “The individual has a soul, but the State is a soulless machine, it can never be weaned from the violence to which it owes its very existence.”
China tops world with 80% foreign trade dependence:
China's foreign trade dependence has reached 80 percent, which is considerably higher than that of other developed and developing countries. China has become the country with the highest foreign trade dependence in the world.
Container throughput at Shanghai Port sets new high
The container throughput of the Shanghai Port increased by 27 percent year-on-year
Inflation fears send gold price to record levels

Recent figures have also revealed gold demand rose 14 per cent worldwide in the second quarter..

Pentagon Revises Nuclear Strike Plan
The Pentagon has drafted a revised doctrine for the use of nuclear weapons that envisions commanders requesting presidential approval to use them to preempt an attack by a nation or a terrorist group using weapons of mass destruction. The draft also includes the option of using nuclear arms to destroy known enemy stockpiles of nuclear, biological or chemical weapons.