Gold prices to rise on China growth
Mine production fell 4.4 percent last year, according to GFMS.
Citigroup said on May 19 the gold price this year will surpass the 16-year high reached in December. Fat Prophets, a privately owned financial-advisory company in Sydney, said yesterday gold may rise to $850 an ounce in as little as three years. By contrast, Barclays Capital forecast on June 16 the metal will drop to $400 or lower by year-end, the first annual decline since 2000.

Quick Overview

• Prices of imported goods rose 1% in June, following a drop in May that was the year’s only decline, the Labor Department said Wednesday.
  
  

• Trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to $55.3 billion in May on record exports and a decline in oil prices.
  

• The Federal Reserve is likely to continue tightening monetary policy at a measured pace, but it depends on how the economy fares, the president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.
  

• There is talk of more hot and dry weather ahead in the Midwest.
  

• The DoE said that crude oil supplies were down 3.9 million barrels last week to 324.9 million barrels. Unleaded gasoline supplies were down 2.7 million barrels and heating oil supplies were up 1.6 million barrels.
  

• The International Energy Agency said that China's oil consumption will grow 7% next year to 7.3 million barrels per day.
  

• The International Monetary Fund's board on Wednesday gave the go-ahead to start talks with Argentina on a new economic program, an IMF source said.
  

• Canada's exports were down 0.5% in May while imports were up 2.3%.
  

• Bovine tuberculosis has been discovered in a cattle herd on the border with Canada -- the first finding in Minnesota since 1971 -- and will lead to the destruction of about 900 animals, state officials said Wednesday.
  

The No-Think Nation Each month in the 21st century the government's own statistics tell the tale of the US winding down as a superpower and devolving into a third world country. Not a single net new high tech or manufacturing job has been created for native-born Americans in the 21st century..

..As my free market friends are found of saying, "the market works." It certainly does. The market is working to close down the great American middle class and to dismantle the ladders of upward mobility..

Quick Overview

• Economists raised their U.S. economic growth forecasts for this year's second half and said they expect the Federal Reserve to lift its interest rate target more as a result, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
  

• The US Budget deficit is declining. Economic growth and increasing corporate and individual tax revenues are expected to erase as much as 25% of the deficit the government had projected this year.
  

• Hurricane Dennis is a disappointment for farmers in central and northern Illinois who were hoping for some rain from the storm. The latest 6 to 10 day forecast from the National Weather Service is calling for above average temperatures and below average precipitation for most of the Midwestern U.S.
  

• European regulators raided Intel Corp. offices in Britain, Germany, Spain and Italy on Tuesday, two weeks after rival U.S. chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices filed lawsuits in Japan and the United States claiming Intel violated antitrust rules.
  

• BP Plc.'s Thunder Horse platform -- the brightest short-term prospect for raising U.S. oil production -- is tilting 20 to 30 degrees after Hurricane Dennis hit the Gulf of Mexico, but the company said it's too early to tell whether initial output will be delayed.
  

• The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 2.54 to 2.24 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were reduced from 255 to 210 million bushels.
  Wheat was increased from 619 to 700 million bushels.
  Sugar was increased from 759,000 to 904,000 tons.
  Cotton was increased from 6.20 to 6.70 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 121 to 114 million tons.
  Soybeans were reduced from 52 to 51 million tons.
  Wheat was reduced from 144 to 143 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 44 to 49 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA reduced the 2004-2005 estimate of the Florida orange crop from 151 to 150 million boxes and reduced the estimated juice yield from 1.60 to 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.
  

• The International Coffee Organization's June Coffee Report lowered its estimate of world coffee production in 2005-2006 from 106 to 105 million (60-kg) bags. They also lowered the 2004-2005 estimation of the world coffee crop from 114 to 110.5 million bags. World consumption for 2004 was projected at 114.4 million bags.
  

• The International Coffee Organization lowered its estimate of Vietnam's 2005-2006 coffee production from 13.0 to 11.0 million (60-kg) bags.
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 2.0% , the highest in seven years.

• Japan's government maintained its view on the economy on Tuesday, saying it saw signs that weakness was receding but that higher oil prices and lingering high-tech inventories were a worry.

• SA gold output falls 8,1% in May

• Spider mites thriving in dry Missouri soybean fieldsIF they are there during the early reproductive stages through about pod fill, we can count on an up to 40 to 60% yield decrease if that population is not addressed."
  
  

China’s trade surplus grows fivefold in June
China’s trade surplus for June swelled five-fold from a year earlier as exports grew much faster than imports, offering more ammunition for foreign critics who argue that Beijing should let the yuan rise in value.

• Overall trucking freight volumes rose 0.8% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the first increase in four months, American Trucking Associations said late Friday.
  
  

• U.S. railroads moved 8.69 million carloads and 5.67 million intermodal loads, up 1.7 percent and 6.2 percent from a year ago.
  
  

• Canada's housing starts were up 7.2% from a month ago -- the highest rate this year.
  
  

• Mexico recovered 47,360 formal jobs in June, returning its employment to the levels of December 2000, when President Vicente Fox took office and before several years of economic stagnation set in.
  
  

• Starting on Oct 9, the Chicago Board of Trade futures exchange will offer trading on the electronic trading platform from 6 p.m. CDT (1900 EDT/2300 GMT) to 4 p.m. CDT the following day. The trading day currently starts at 7 p.m. CDT.

Quick Overview

• Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose 0.1% in May, the Commerce Department said Friday, the 16th straight rise in stockpiles.
  

• The number of unemployed in the United States fell in June as employers hired 146,000 workers, the Labor Department said Friday, pushing the overall unemployment rate down to 5%, its lowest in nearly four years.
  

• Farmers in the eastern half of the Midwestern U.S. are hoping to get some rain out of Hurricane Dennis. According to the current forecast, Dennis is taking the same track as Hurricane Ivan did last fall.
  

• G8 members said that they decided to end export subsidies for farm products. Conveniently, no date was set.
  

• London copper inventories now stand at 29,150 tons . Down from 49,375 tons at the beginning of the year.
  

• Canada's unemployment rate improved from 6.8% to 6.7% in June,
  

• The Conference Board said that the leading economic index for Japan was down 0.2% in May to 98.0.
  

• The amount of freight hauled by intermodal rail cars rose 4% in June, according to a report by the Association of American Railroads.

The only category of severity which remains is “exceptional”—and the region may be headed in that direction unless much needed rains arrive soon.

Quick Overview

• Oil Falls From Record as London Blasts Threaten Economic Growth

• First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 7,000 to 319,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. The gain was in line with expectations.
  
  

• In The Latest AAII Poll Bullish sentiment fell to 43.01% from 45.89%, the bearish sentiment fell to 20.43% from 29.45% during the previous week. The percentage of investors who described themselves as neutral on the stock market rose to 36.56% from 24.66%.
  
  

• Drought affecting the agriculturally important state of Illinois deepened to extreme levels last week, according to a national summary issued Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Weather Service and National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Neb.
  
  

• Intermodal trailer and container volumes were up 6.9%, and carload freight was up 0.7% for the week ended July 2, in comparison with the corresponding week last year, the Association of American Railroads reported Thursday.
  
  

• There is confusion over the potential path of Hurricane Dennis, and if it would bring beneficial rains to parched eastern Midwest growing areas, analysts said. The U.S. corn crop is in its yield-determining pollination stage, and rains are critically needed in key producer Illinois.
  
  

• Australia's unemployment rate dropped from 5.1% to 5.0% in June, the lowest in 29 years.
  

• The DOE said that crude oil supplies were down 3.6 million barrels last week to 324.9 million barrels. Unleaded gasoline supplies were down 900,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were up 2.7 million barrels. The DOE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 63 billion cubic feet last week at 2.186 trillion cubic feet.

FACTBOX-Leading indicators of world economic activity

-- India and China topped a global survey of consumer confidence conducted between April and May across 38 countries. The ACNielsen twice-yearly survey of some 21,000 people showed 88 pct of Indians and 80 pct of Chinese were optimistic about the economic outlook over the next year. This contrasted with 35 pct of North Americans and 29 pct of Europeans.

Prospects for an extended round of heat begin this weekend, suggesting the current dry pattern has legs and is likely to get worse as the mercury rises.

US citizens back action to curb greenhouse emissions

94 per cent of respondents said the US should make efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions, in line with other developed nations.

Quick Overview

• The price of crude oil topped $60 in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as Tropical Storm Cindy struck the Louisiana coast, heightening supply fears, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday
  

• The ISM index of U.S. service activity increased from 58.5 to 62.2 in June, stronger than expected
  

• Brazil's Coffee Roasters Association said that coffee consumption in Brazil was up 12% in 2004-2005 to 15.5 million (60-kg.) bags.
  

• Factory production in the U.K. was unchanged in May and down 1.7% YoY.
  

• An index of retail sales in the Euro zone dropped from 50.1 to 49.2 in June.
  

• An index of leading indicators for Japan improved from 31.8 to 40.0 in May.

Past 47 days: Rainfall under 1"; 17% normal
Never in 135 years of weather observations has the period from May 20 through July 6 seen less rain in Chicago. The past 47 days—a period over which 5.72” has fallen (on average) since 1871—hasn’t even managed an inch of rain. The 0.97” on the books is just 17% of the long term average and the least rain to fall in that period since records began.

Quick Overview

• New auto sales in Australia rose 21.7% to 101,907
  vehicles in June from May, industry data published Tuesday by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries show.
  

• U.S. factory orders were up 2.9% in May, after gaining 0.7% in April.
  

• Good week for U.S. railroads as Carriers boost carloads 0.6 percent, intermodal loads 4.4 percent.

• The Palmer drought map for the U.S. shows moderate to extreme drought conditions from east Texas up through Illinois and into Michigan. There are also concerns that Tropical Storm Cindy could push Asian soy rust farther north into soybean country.
  

• Today’s USDA's good to excellent crop rating for:
  Corn was 62%, down from 65% a week ago.
  Soybeans were 58%, down from 59% a week ago.
  Spring wheat was 81%, up from 77% a week ago.
  Cotton was 57%, down from 62% a week ago.
  

• Retail sales in the Euro zone were up 1.1% in May and up 2.0% from a year ago.

• Mexican consumer confidence rose 1.0 percent in June from May, breaking a run of three straight months of declines, the government said on Monday.

Harry Browne comments on the Fourth of July

It was truly unique — the first nation in all of history in which the individual was considered more important than the government, and the government was tied down by a written Constitution.

Quick Overview

• The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index rose to 53.8% in June from 51.4% in May. Prices paid fell to 50.5% from 58.0% in May, the lowest since February 2002.
  
  

• U.S. stock mutual funds saw weekly net outflows of $74 million in the week ended June 29, as many managers reported the heaviest redemptions in more than two years, according to AMG Data Services.
  
  

• Spending on construction projects fell in May for a third straight month, reflecting declines in the building of homes, offices and shopping malls. YoY, U.S. construction spending is up 9.7%.
  
  
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey increased from 86.9 to 96.0 in June, stronger than expected.
  
  

• Business confidence among Japanese companies grew in the three months to June, a Bank of Japan survey showed on Friday, a sign that healthy domestic demand and reduced inventories were helping them ride out flagging exports
  

• Manufacturing activity in the U.K. improved from 47 to 49.6 in June.
  
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro-zone and in the EU-25 b improved from 8.9% to 8.8% in May.
  
  

• As of May, the Shanghai Port handled $131.9 billion in foreign trade, up 25 percent YoY.

• Australia’s Retail sales were up 0.9% in May, stronger than expected.
  

Book closes on one of the hottest, driest Junes here
Brown lawns and shriveling leaves don’t lie. Weeks of hot, dry weather have taken their toll.

No Bounce President Bush’s televised address to the nation produced no noticeable bounce in his approval numbers, with his job approval rating slipping a point from a week ago, to 43%, in the latest Zogby International poll. And, in a sign of continuing polarization, more than two-in-five voters (42%) say they would favor impeachment proceedings if it is found the President misled the nation about his reasons for going to war with Iraq.

Quick Overview

• As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee boosted its target for short-term interest rates Thursday by a quarter percentage point to 3.25% and signaled further rate hikes are coming.
  
  

• The number of U.S. workers filing for initial unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to 310,000 for the week ended June 25, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
  
  

• Manufacturing activity in the Chicago area decreased in June, the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said Thursday.
  
  

• Personal spending remained steady in May, after rising in each of the previous three months, the Commerce Department said Thursday
  
  

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 0.2% in May while consumer spending was unchanged.
  

• The USDA said that the 2005 planted area for:
  Corn is 81.6 million acres, up from its earlier June estimate of 81.4 million acres.
  Soybeans are 73.3 million acres, down from its June estimate of 73.9 million acres.
  Wheat is 58.1 million acres, down from its June estimate of 58.6 million acres.
  Cotton is 14.0 million acres, up from its June estimate of 13.8 million acres.
  

• The USDA said that June 1st U.S. grain stocks for:
  Corn were 4.32 billion bushels, up 45% YoY
  Soybeans were 700 million bushels, up 70% YoY.
  Wheat was 540 million bushels, down 1% YoY.
  

• India's GDP increased 7% YoY

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 92 billion cubic feet to 2.123 trillion cubic feet.
  
  

• Canada's GDP was up 0.4% in April and up 2.7% YoY.
  
  
  

Soybean imports doubled in MayChina, the world's biggest soybean-buyer, bought 2 million metric tons of the oilseed last month, 143 percent more than in May 2004, according to figures released by the Customs General Administration of Customs on Friday. Imports jumped 55 percent in April from a year earlier.

Insurers sound the alarm on climate change
The cost worldwide of storms, expected to become more frequent owing to climate change, is likely to rise by two-thirds to £15bn ($27bn, €22bn) a year in the next seven decades, the Association of British Insurers will warn on Wednesday.

China to quench growing petrol thirst
They are slightly more stringent than current fuel economy standards in the US,”

Quick Overview

• Crude oil and distillate inventories both rose more than expected in the Department of Energy’s weekly inventory report issued Wednesday. Crude oil supplies were up 1.1 million barrels last week to 328.5 million barrels. Unleaded gasoline supplies were up 300,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were up 1.6 million barrels.

• The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.8% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday
  

• The United Nations said that they expect the global economy to grow 3% in 2005 and 2006.
  

• The Confederation of British Industry's monthly survey of retail sales registered its most negative score in 22 years.
  
  

• The International Monetary Fund reduced its estimate of German GDP growth in 2006 from 1.8% to 1.3%.
  

• Japan's industrial production was down 2.3% in May, weaker than expected.
  
  

• The Senate Tuesday approved an energy bill that encourages more efficient uses of energy and the development of renewable fuels such as ethanol, though it would do little to immediately ease gasoline, diesel and crude oil prices that are at or close to record highs, Bloomberg reported.
  

Investment Outlook Fire!

The following is important, but if your eyes glaze over, skip to the summary.

The Saudi oil bombshell
Simmons is not a militant environmentalist or anti-oil partisan; he is chairman and chief executive officer of one of the nation's leading oil-industry investment banks, Simmons & Company International. For decades, Simmons has been pouring billions of dollars into the energy business,

Quick Overview

• U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Tuesday the responsibility for helping correct big U.S. trade imbalances lay with Europe and Japan because the Bush administration was doing what it needed to do.
  
  
• The Conference Board's U.S. consumer confidence index increased from 103.1 to 105.8 in June, the highest in three years.
  

• London Copper inventories now stand at 30,250 tons down from 49,375 at the beginning of the year.
  
  

• An index of business confidence in France increased from 97 to 99 in June.
  
  

• Japan's retail sales were down 1.5% in May.
  
  

• The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that they expect Japan's unemployment rate to drop from 4.4% in 2005 to 4.1% in 2006.
  

• Overall trucking freight volumes rose 0.7% in May as the economy grew modestly, American Trucking Associations said Monday.
  
  

• Rising asphalt prices have caused at least five states to delay or cancel road resurfacing projects, which could have an adverse effect on commercial vehicles, transportation officials said

• The Journal of Commerce reports that as demand continues to run ahead of available capacity, motor carriers once again are calling the shots when it comes to pricing.
  
  

• Diesel Gains 2.3 Cents to Hit New Record of $2.336
  
  

Historic Gold Oil Ratio

Spot gold predicted to double in coming months
"Based on historic ratios between gold and oil, gold should now be over $500 an ounce.

For your contemplation we have included the chart below -- it shows the price of Gold divided by Crude Oil.

Quick Overview

• World economy risks abound,higher rates needed-BIS The world economy, awash in cheap cash, risks a nasty market disruption if central banks do not act soon to raise interest rates, and governments to cut spending, the world's central banker warned on Monday.
  

• Austria confirmed its second incident of mad cow disease last Friday.
  

• Bird flu was detected at chicken farms in northeastern Japan.
  

• The 6 to 10 day forecast from the U.S. Weather Service showed average temperatures and above average rainfall for most of the Midwestern US – November soybeans dropped their 50-cent limit.
  

• The USDA's good to excellent crop rating for:
  Corn was 65%, down from 68% a week ago.
  Soybeans were 59%, down from 63% a week ago.
  Spring wheat was 77%, down from 79% a week ago.
  Winter wheat was 49%, down from 50% a week ago.
  Cotton was 62%, down from 63% a week ago.
  

• The Brazilian government estimated 2005-2006 sugar production at 27.2 million tons, up 2% YoY.
  

• Economic activity in Mexico grew 4.8 percent in April from the same month last year amid a manufacturing export-led recovery, the government said on Monday.
  
  

• The USDA estimated Brazil's 2005-2006 orange crop at 407 million boxes, down from 467 million boxes in 2004-2005. They expect orange juice exports of 1.25 million tons, down 8% YoY

• The Ifo Institute's index of business confidence in Germany increased from 92.9 to 93.3 in June.
  
  
  

Gold in Euros

For your contemplation we have included the chart below -- it shows the price of Gold in Euros.

Dark chocolate seen healthy for arteries
Eating dark chocolate may have a protective effect on the cardiovascular system in healthy people, the results of a new study suggest.

Housing bubble trouble - Mass. home sales plunge 11.1 percent
The bubble hasn't burst, but the air may be leaking out.

Watchdog

Quick Overview

• U.S. orders for durable goods rose 5.5% in May, the most in more than a year, the Commerce Department said Friday
  

• U.S. new home sales rise the highest level in seven months, rising 2.1%, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
  

• YoY Canada's consumer price index was up 1.6% in May.
  

• YoY the GDP in New Zealand was up 2.5% in the first quarter, weaker than expected.
  

• Hot and dry weather is expected to continue over much of the Midwestern U.S.

• The USDA confirmed that a suspected cow did test positive for mad cow disease and emphasized that the animal did not enter the food supply.

• Rail freight traffic increased for the week ended June 18 compared with the same week last year, and intermodal volume also rose, the Association of American Railroads said.
  

The heat intensifies Friday, and the record high of 97° in 1988 may be on the line. That reading is a far cry from the cool 70° recorded a year ago.

Crude Oil in Real Dollars

For your contemplation we have included the chart below -- it shows the price of crude oil adjusted by the CPI (Consumer Price Index).

Supreme Court Rules Cities May Seize Homes Cities may bulldoze people's homes to make way for shopping malls or other private development, a divided Supreme Court ruled Thursday, giving local governments broad power to seize private property to generate tax revenue.

LIFE -- LIBERTY -- AND THE PURSUIT OF TAX REVENUE

Feds Target Calif. Marijuana Dispensaries
..the Supreme Court ruling "lays to rest any question whether federal authorities have jurisdiction."

Brain Sees Violent Video Games as Real Life – Study A small study of brain activity in video-game veterans suggests that their brains react as if they are treating the violence as real.