Past 47 days: Rainfall under 1"; 17% normal
Never in 135 years of weather observations has the period from May 20 through July 6 seen less rain in Chicago. The past 47 days—a period over which 5.72” has fallen (on average) since 1871—hasn’t even managed an inch of rain. The 0.97” on the books is just 17% of the long term average and the least rain to fall in that period since records began.

Quick Overview

• New auto sales in Australia rose 21.7% to 101,907
  vehicles in June from May, industry data published Tuesday by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries show.
  

• U.S. factory orders were up 2.9% in May, after gaining 0.7% in April.
  

• Good week for U.S. railroads as Carriers boost carloads 0.6 percent, intermodal loads 4.4 percent.

• The Palmer drought map for the U.S. shows moderate to extreme drought conditions from east Texas up through Illinois and into Michigan. There are also concerns that Tropical Storm Cindy could push Asian soy rust farther north into soybean country.
  

• Today’s USDA's good to excellent crop rating for:
  Corn was 62%, down from 65% a week ago.
  Soybeans were 58%, down from 59% a week ago.
  Spring wheat was 81%, up from 77% a week ago.
  Cotton was 57%, down from 62% a week ago.
  

• Retail sales in the Euro zone were up 1.1% in May and up 2.0% from a year ago.

• Mexican consumer confidence rose 1.0 percent in June from May, breaking a run of three straight months of declines, the government said on Monday.

Harry Browne comments on the Fourth of July

It was truly unique — the first nation in all of history in which the individual was considered more important than the government, and the government was tied down by a written Constitution.

Quick Overview

• The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index rose to 53.8% in June from 51.4% in May. Prices paid fell to 50.5% from 58.0% in May, the lowest since February 2002.
  
  

• U.S. stock mutual funds saw weekly net outflows of $74 million in the week ended June 29, as many managers reported the heaviest redemptions in more than two years, according to AMG Data Services.
  
  

• Spending on construction projects fell in May for a third straight month, reflecting declines in the building of homes, offices and shopping malls. YoY, U.S. construction spending is up 9.7%.
  
  
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey increased from 86.9 to 96.0 in June, stronger than expected.
  
  

• Business confidence among Japanese companies grew in the three months to June, a Bank of Japan survey showed on Friday, a sign that healthy domestic demand and reduced inventories were helping them ride out flagging exports
  

• Manufacturing activity in the U.K. improved from 47 to 49.6 in June.
  
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro-zone and in the EU-25 b improved from 8.9% to 8.8% in May.
  
  

• As of May, the Shanghai Port handled $131.9 billion in foreign trade, up 25 percent YoY.

• Australia’s Retail sales were up 0.9% in May, stronger than expected.
  

Book closes on one of the hottest, driest Junes here
Brown lawns and shriveling leaves don’t lie. Weeks of hot, dry weather have taken their toll.

No Bounce President Bush’s televised address to the nation produced no noticeable bounce in his approval numbers, with his job approval rating slipping a point from a week ago, to 43%, in the latest Zogby International poll. And, in a sign of continuing polarization, more than two-in-five voters (42%) say they would favor impeachment proceedings if it is found the President misled the nation about his reasons for going to war with Iraq.

Quick Overview

• As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee boosted its target for short-term interest rates Thursday by a quarter percentage point to 3.25% and signaled further rate hikes are coming.
  
  

• The number of U.S. workers filing for initial unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to 310,000 for the week ended June 25, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
  
  

• Manufacturing activity in the Chicago area decreased in June, the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said Thursday.
  
  

• Personal spending remained steady in May, after rising in each of the previous three months, the Commerce Department said Thursday
  
  

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 0.2% in May while consumer spending was unchanged.
  

• The USDA said that the 2005 planted area for:
  Corn is 81.6 million acres, up from its earlier June estimate of 81.4 million acres.
  Soybeans are 73.3 million acres, down from its June estimate of 73.9 million acres.
  Wheat is 58.1 million acres, down from its June estimate of 58.6 million acres.
  Cotton is 14.0 million acres, up from its June estimate of 13.8 million acres.
  

• The USDA said that June 1st U.S. grain stocks for:
  Corn were 4.32 billion bushels, up 45% YoY
  Soybeans were 700 million bushels, up 70% YoY.
  Wheat was 540 million bushels, down 1% YoY.
  

• India's GDP increased 7% YoY

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 92 billion cubic feet to 2.123 trillion cubic feet.
  
  

• Canada's GDP was up 0.4% in April and up 2.7% YoY.
  
  
  

Soybean imports doubled in MayChina, the world's biggest soybean-buyer, bought 2 million metric tons of the oilseed last month, 143 percent more than in May 2004, according to figures released by the Customs General Administration of Customs on Friday. Imports jumped 55 percent in April from a year earlier.

Insurers sound the alarm on climate change
The cost worldwide of storms, expected to become more frequent owing to climate change, is likely to rise by two-thirds to £15bn ($27bn, €22bn) a year in the next seven decades, the Association of British Insurers will warn on Wednesday.

China to quench growing petrol thirst
They are slightly more stringent than current fuel economy standards in the US,”

Quick Overview

• Crude oil and distillate inventories both rose more than expected in the Department of Energy’s weekly inventory report issued Wednesday. Crude oil supplies were up 1.1 million barrels last week to 328.5 million barrels. Unleaded gasoline supplies were up 300,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were up 1.6 million barrels.

• The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.8% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday
  

• The United Nations said that they expect the global economy to grow 3% in 2005 and 2006.
  

• The Confederation of British Industry's monthly survey of retail sales registered its most negative score in 22 years.
  
  

• The International Monetary Fund reduced its estimate of German GDP growth in 2006 from 1.8% to 1.3%.
  

• Japan's industrial production was down 2.3% in May, weaker than expected.
  
  

• The Senate Tuesday approved an energy bill that encourages more efficient uses of energy and the development of renewable fuels such as ethanol, though it would do little to immediately ease gasoline, diesel and crude oil prices that are at or close to record highs, Bloomberg reported.
  

Investment Outlook Fire!

The following is important, but if your eyes glaze over, skip to the summary.

The Saudi oil bombshell
Simmons is not a militant environmentalist or anti-oil partisan; he is chairman and chief executive officer of one of the nation's leading oil-industry investment banks, Simmons & Company International. For decades, Simmons has been pouring billions of dollars into the energy business,

Quick Overview

• U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Tuesday the responsibility for helping correct big U.S. trade imbalances lay with Europe and Japan because the Bush administration was doing what it needed to do.
  
  
• The Conference Board's U.S. consumer confidence index increased from 103.1 to 105.8 in June, the highest in three years.
  

• London Copper inventories now stand at 30,250 tons down from 49,375 at the beginning of the year.
  
  

• An index of business confidence in France increased from 97 to 99 in June.
  
  

• Japan's retail sales were down 1.5% in May.
  
  

• The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that they expect Japan's unemployment rate to drop from 4.4% in 2005 to 4.1% in 2006.
  

• Overall trucking freight volumes rose 0.7% in May as the economy grew modestly, American Trucking Associations said Monday.
  
  

• Rising asphalt prices have caused at least five states to delay or cancel road resurfacing projects, which could have an adverse effect on commercial vehicles, transportation officials said

• The Journal of Commerce reports that as demand continues to run ahead of available capacity, motor carriers once again are calling the shots when it comes to pricing.
  
  

• Diesel Gains 2.3 Cents to Hit New Record of $2.336
  
  

Historic Gold Oil Ratio

Spot gold predicted to double in coming months
"Based on historic ratios between gold and oil, gold should now be over $500 an ounce.

For your contemplation we have included the chart below -- it shows the price of Gold divided by Crude Oil.

Quick Overview

• World economy risks abound,higher rates needed-BIS The world economy, awash in cheap cash, risks a nasty market disruption if central banks do not act soon to raise interest rates, and governments to cut spending, the world's central banker warned on Monday.
  

• Austria confirmed its second incident of mad cow disease last Friday.
  

• Bird flu was detected at chicken farms in northeastern Japan.
  

• The 6 to 10 day forecast from the U.S. Weather Service showed average temperatures and above average rainfall for most of the Midwestern US – November soybeans dropped their 50-cent limit.
  

• The USDA's good to excellent crop rating for:
  Corn was 65%, down from 68% a week ago.
  Soybeans were 59%, down from 63% a week ago.
  Spring wheat was 77%, down from 79% a week ago.
  Winter wheat was 49%, down from 50% a week ago.
  Cotton was 62%, down from 63% a week ago.
  

• The Brazilian government estimated 2005-2006 sugar production at 27.2 million tons, up 2% YoY.
  

• Economic activity in Mexico grew 4.8 percent in April from the same month last year amid a manufacturing export-led recovery, the government said on Monday.
  
  

• The USDA estimated Brazil's 2005-2006 orange crop at 407 million boxes, down from 467 million boxes in 2004-2005. They expect orange juice exports of 1.25 million tons, down 8% YoY

• The Ifo Institute's index of business confidence in Germany increased from 92.9 to 93.3 in June.
  
  
  

Gold in Euros

For your contemplation we have included the chart below -- it shows the price of Gold in Euros.

Dark chocolate seen healthy for arteries
Eating dark chocolate may have a protective effect on the cardiovascular system in healthy people, the results of a new study suggest.

Housing bubble trouble - Mass. home sales plunge 11.1 percent
The bubble hasn't burst, but the air may be leaking out.