Book closes on one of the hottest, driest Junes here
Brown lawns and shriveling leaves don’t lie. Weeks of hot, dry weather have taken their toll.

No Bounce President Bush’s televised address to the nation produced no noticeable bounce in his approval numbers, with his job approval rating slipping a point from a week ago, to 43%, in the latest Zogby International poll. And, in a sign of continuing polarization, more than two-in-five voters (42%) say they would favor impeachment proceedings if it is found the President misled the nation about his reasons for going to war with Iraq.

Quick Overview

• As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee boosted its target for short-term interest rates Thursday by a quarter percentage point to 3.25% and signaled further rate hikes are coming.
  
  

• The number of U.S. workers filing for initial unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to 310,000 for the week ended June 25, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
  
  

• Manufacturing activity in the Chicago area decreased in June, the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said Thursday.
  
  

• Personal spending remained steady in May, after rising in each of the previous three months, the Commerce Department said Thursday
  
  

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 0.2% in May while consumer spending was unchanged.
  

• The USDA said that the 2005 planted area for:
  Corn is 81.6 million acres, up from its earlier June estimate of 81.4 million acres.
  Soybeans are 73.3 million acres, down from its June estimate of 73.9 million acres.
  Wheat is 58.1 million acres, down from its June estimate of 58.6 million acres.
  Cotton is 14.0 million acres, up from its June estimate of 13.8 million acres.
  

• The USDA said that June 1st U.S. grain stocks for:
  Corn were 4.32 billion bushels, up 45% YoY
  Soybeans were 700 million bushels, up 70% YoY.
  Wheat was 540 million bushels, down 1% YoY.
  

• India's GDP increased 7% YoY

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 92 billion cubic feet to 2.123 trillion cubic feet.
  
  

• Canada's GDP was up 0.4% in April and up 2.7% YoY.
  
  
  

Soybean imports doubled in MayChina, the world's biggest soybean-buyer, bought 2 million metric tons of the oilseed last month, 143 percent more than in May 2004, according to figures released by the Customs General Administration of Customs on Friday. Imports jumped 55 percent in April from a year earlier.

Insurers sound the alarm on climate change
The cost worldwide of storms, expected to become more frequent owing to climate change, is likely to rise by two-thirds to £15bn ($27bn, €22bn) a year in the next seven decades, the Association of British Insurers will warn on Wednesday.

China to quench growing petrol thirst
They are slightly more stringent than current fuel economy standards in the US,”

Quick Overview

• Crude oil and distillate inventories both rose more than expected in the Department of Energy’s weekly inventory report issued Wednesday. Crude oil supplies were up 1.1 million barrels last week to 328.5 million barrels. Unleaded gasoline supplies were up 300,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were up 1.6 million barrels.

• The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.8% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday
  

• The United Nations said that they expect the global economy to grow 3% in 2005 and 2006.
  

• The Confederation of British Industry's monthly survey of retail sales registered its most negative score in 22 years.
  
  

• The International Monetary Fund reduced its estimate of German GDP growth in 2006 from 1.8% to 1.3%.
  

• Japan's industrial production was down 2.3% in May, weaker than expected.
  
  

• The Senate Tuesday approved an energy bill that encourages more efficient uses of energy and the development of renewable fuels such as ethanol, though it would do little to immediately ease gasoline, diesel and crude oil prices that are at or close to record highs, Bloomberg reported.
  

Investment Outlook Fire!

The following is important, but if your eyes glaze over, skip to the summary.

The Saudi oil bombshell
Simmons is not a militant environmentalist or anti-oil partisan; he is chairman and chief executive officer of one of the nation's leading oil-industry investment banks, Simmons & Company International. For decades, Simmons has been pouring billions of dollars into the energy business,

Quick Overview

• U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Tuesday the responsibility for helping correct big U.S. trade imbalances lay with Europe and Japan because the Bush administration was doing what it needed to do.
  
  
• The Conference Board's U.S. consumer confidence index increased from 103.1 to 105.8 in June, the highest in three years.
  

• London Copper inventories now stand at 30,250 tons down from 49,375 at the beginning of the year.
  
  

• An index of business confidence in France increased from 97 to 99 in June.
  
  

• Japan's retail sales were down 1.5% in May.
  
  

• The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that they expect Japan's unemployment rate to drop from 4.4% in 2005 to 4.1% in 2006.
  

• Overall trucking freight volumes rose 0.7% in May as the economy grew modestly, American Trucking Associations said Monday.
  
  

• Rising asphalt prices have caused at least five states to delay or cancel road resurfacing projects, which could have an adverse effect on commercial vehicles, transportation officials said

• The Journal of Commerce reports that as demand continues to run ahead of available capacity, motor carriers once again are calling the shots when it comes to pricing.
  
  

• Diesel Gains 2.3 Cents to Hit New Record of $2.336
  
  

Historic Gold Oil Ratio

Spot gold predicted to double in coming months
"Based on historic ratios between gold and oil, gold should now be over $500 an ounce.

For your contemplation we have included the chart below -- it shows the price of Gold divided by Crude Oil.

Quick Overview

• World economy risks abound,higher rates needed-BIS The world economy, awash in cheap cash, risks a nasty market disruption if central banks do not act soon to raise interest rates, and governments to cut spending, the world's central banker warned on Monday.
  

• Austria confirmed its second incident of mad cow disease last Friday.
  

• Bird flu was detected at chicken farms in northeastern Japan.
  

• The 6 to 10 day forecast from the U.S. Weather Service showed average temperatures and above average rainfall for most of the Midwestern US – November soybeans dropped their 50-cent limit.
  

• The USDA's good to excellent crop rating for:
  Corn was 65%, down from 68% a week ago.
  Soybeans were 59%, down from 63% a week ago.
  Spring wheat was 77%, down from 79% a week ago.
  Winter wheat was 49%, down from 50% a week ago.
  Cotton was 62%, down from 63% a week ago.
  

• The Brazilian government estimated 2005-2006 sugar production at 27.2 million tons, up 2% YoY.
  

• Economic activity in Mexico grew 4.8 percent in April from the same month last year amid a manufacturing export-led recovery, the government said on Monday.
  
  

• The USDA estimated Brazil's 2005-2006 orange crop at 407 million boxes, down from 467 million boxes in 2004-2005. They expect orange juice exports of 1.25 million tons, down 8% YoY

• The Ifo Institute's index of business confidence in Germany increased from 92.9 to 93.3 in June.
  
  
  

Gold in Euros

For your contemplation we have included the chart below -- it shows the price of Gold in Euros.

Dark chocolate seen healthy for arteries
Eating dark chocolate may have a protective effect on the cardiovascular system in healthy people, the results of a new study suggest.

Housing bubble trouble - Mass. home sales plunge 11.1 percent
The bubble hasn't burst, but the air may be leaking out.

Watchdog

Quick Overview

• U.S. orders for durable goods rose 5.5% in May, the most in more than a year, the Commerce Department said Friday
  

• U.S. new home sales rise the highest level in seven months, rising 2.1%, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
  

• YoY Canada's consumer price index was up 1.6% in May.
  

• YoY the GDP in New Zealand was up 2.5% in the first quarter, weaker than expected.
  

• Hot and dry weather is expected to continue over much of the Midwestern U.S.

• The USDA confirmed that a suspected cow did test positive for mad cow disease and emphasized that the animal did not enter the food supply.

• Rail freight traffic increased for the week ended June 18 compared with the same week last year, and intermodal volume also rose, the Association of American Railroads said.
  

The heat intensifies Friday, and the record high of 97° in 1988 may be on the line. That reading is a far cry from the cool 70° recorded a year ago.

Crude Oil in Real Dollars

For your contemplation we have included the chart below -- it shows the price of crude oil adjusted by the CPI (Consumer Price Index).

Supreme Court Rules Cities May Seize Homes Cities may bulldoze people's homes to make way for shopping malls or other private development, a divided Supreme Court ruled Thursday, giving local governments broad power to seize private property to generate tax revenue.

LIFE -- LIBERTY -- AND THE PURSUIT OF TAX REVENUE

Feds Target Calif. Marijuana Dispensaries
..the Supreme Court ruling "lays to rest any question whether federal authorities have jurisdiction."

Brain Sees Violent Video Games as Real Life – Study A small study of brain activity in video-game veterans suggests that their brains react as if they are treating the violence as real.

Quick Overview

• The number of U.S. workers filing for initial unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to 314,000 for the week ended June 18, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
  

• Sales of existing homes fell 0.7% in May from April’s record high to an annual rate of 7.13 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
  

• Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway told CNBC on Thursday that he thinks there's probably a real-estate bubble in the U.S. (This must be the most advertised bubble ever!)
  
  

• FedEx Corp. reported Thursday that net income for its fourth quarter ended May 31 rose to $448 million or $1.46 a share, from $412 million or $1.32 a year ago.
  
  

• The Shenzhen's port complex, one of the largest trading gateways for the US, expects to almost double its overall container capacity to 25 million TEUs by 2010.
  
  
  
• Reports said Beijing plans to stockpile up to 100 million barrels of petroleum, or the equivalent of almost a month's national consumption.

• Asia's fourth-largest container line reports the Hanjin freight rate index
  increased due to agrowing demand in the US and Europe for products made in China and other Asian countries.

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 75 billion cubic feet last week to 2.031 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now up 11% YoY.
  

• The U.S. Census Bureau said that 142.8 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in May, more than expected
  

• Canada's farmers planted 25.2 million acres of wheat this year, down 1.4% from 2004. The Canadian Wheat Board said that western Canada will produce 22 million tons of wheat this year, down 8% YoY .
  

• U.S. cotton mill use in May declined from an annual rate of 6.20 to 6.09 million bales.
  

• An index of services in Japan, was up 1.8% in April, stronger than expected.
  

• Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Congress on Thursday not to rush to impose punitive tariffs on imports from China, saying they would harm U.S. consumers and protect "few if any American jobs."

BREAKS IN DROUGHTS INFREQUENT THIS TIME OF YEAR -- Dry spells like this one difficult to reverse.

China demand boosts commodities Industrial output in China, the world’s biggest user of copper, coal and steel, surged 16.6 percent in May to a record, the statistics bureau said June 15. The gains follow two years of 9.5 percent economic growth in China, which has overtaken Japan as the world’s biggest oil consumer after the US. China, India and Brazil comprise a market of 2.5 billion consumers, with $1.3 trillion a year to spend,..

Quick Overview

• COSCO, China's biggest shipping conglomerate has found hesitant interest by retail investors in its $1.65 billion IPO on worries that the global shipping boom has peaked.
  
  

• The European Union announced that it will be cutting its subsidized sugar price by 39%.

• The DoE said that crude oil supplies were down 1.6 million barrels last week to 327.4 million barrels. Unleaded supplies were up 200,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were up 1.8 million barrels.
  

• The USDA said that there were 513 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, up 24% from a year ago.
  

• The USDA said there were 81.7 million pounds of frozen pork bellies in storage, up 97% from a year ago.
  

• The USDA announced that there were 1.67 billion pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage on May 31st, down 22% from a year ago.
  

• The long-haul, heavy-duty truck transportation industry in the United States is experiencing a national shortage of 20,000 truck drivers, the American Trucking Associations reported .
  

• Canada's index of composite leading indicators was up 0.3% in May to 203.7.
  

• Exports in Japan were up 1.4% in May while imports jumped up 18.6%.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• Traders expect the soy market to remain firmly underpinned on breaks as near-term weather issues, rust and aphid worries, lost acres in the northwest Midwest and potential dryness problems in China and India provide an underlying backdrop to support the market.
  
  
  

• CNOOC, China's third largest oil company, may bid $20 billion for the US's Unocal, trumping Chevron's $16 billion bid. (I'm off to take chinese lessons!)

• The price of retail diesel fuel rose 3.7 cents to $2.313 a gallon, just 0.3 cents below the record high reached April 11, the Department of Energy said Monday.
  
  
  

• Canada's retail sales totaled C$30.9 billion in April, up 1.5% on the month and up 8.2% YoY..
  
  

• Consumer spending in France was down 0.9% in May, weaker than expected
  
  
  

After the fall

Not only are new buyers taking out bigger mortgages, but existing owners have increased their mortgages to turn capital gains into cash which they can spend. As a result of such borrowing, housing booms tend to be more dangerous than stockmarket bubbles, and are often followed by periods of prolonged economic weakness.

Quick Overview

• The index of leading U.S. economic indicators fell 0.5% in May to 114.1, the Conference Board said Monday.
  
  

• London inventories of copper are now at 34,500 tons.
  
  

• Today's 6 to 10 day forecast from the U.S. National Weather Service expects above average temperatures and below normal precipitation for most of the Midwest.
  
  

• Citrus canker is becoming a growing concern in Florida.
  
  

• Members of the European Union failed to agree on a new seven-year budget over the weekend.
  
  

• Despite ongoing demand running ahead of capacity faltering Charter rates and new ship prices could be a sign that the three-year rally in box shipping is leveling off.
  
  

• US rail carloads totaling 332,491 units decreased 2.2 percent the week of June compared to the same week in 2004.

• The Singapore Exchange has confirmed plans to develop a clearing house for freight and energy derivatives as the country looks to capture more of the growing Asian market.