Wednesday, June 08, 2005

Longevity crisis? Kill Grandma A welfare state designed in the era of bacon, eggs and Lucky Strikes cannot expect to survive in an age of "active seniors" who wash down their Viagra with soy milk and think a six-pack is something you get at the gym.

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. Commerce Department said that wholesale sales increased 1.5% in April, the biggest jump in over a year. Meanwhile, inventories increased 0.8%. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.18 from 1.19. The record low was 1.14 in April

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that crude oil supplies were down 3.0 million barrels to 330.8 million barrels. Unleaded supplies were down 100,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were unchanged.

  • There is some concern about the spread of Asian citrus canker in Florida.

  • Engine and heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar Inc. said Wednesday it would split its stock 2-for-1 and boost its quarterly dividend by 9 cents, following record sales last year.

  • Canada's housing starts were at an annual rate of 218,800 units in May, down 5.0 %

  • The Netherlands central bank cut its 2005 growth forecast from 1.7% to 0.4%.

  • Average retail diesel prices are expected to remain above regular gasoline prices through 2006, the Department of Energy said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday

  • Peru's government on Wednesday lauded two new oil discoveries, saying the finds should boost optimism about finding more hydrocarbons to replace the Andean nation's dwindling oil supplies. Petro-Tech, the Peruvian unit of Houston-based Petro-Tech International, said its new well is producing 1,200 barrels of oil a day and its potential reserves could vary between 10 million and 50 million barrels of oil.


Tuesday, June 07, 2005

John Conyers, Jr. -- Letter to Pres Bush Concerning the "Downing Street Minutes"
The peace and welfare of this and coming generations of Americans will be secure only as we cling to the watchword of true patriotism: "Our country -- when right to be kept right; when wrong to be put right."
Carl Schurz

Quick Overview

  • Germany's industrial production was up 1.1% in April.

  • Household spending in Japan was down 3% in April from a year ago.

  • Crop outlook sours Australia is the world's second-largest exporter of wheat, but it has already been suggested that the country might have to import wheat from its international competitors to meet demand this year.

  • Total air cargo shipments rose 0.3% in April compared with a year earlier, following a 3.1% year-over-year drop in March, the Air Transport Association reported.

  • GM announced today that it's cutting 25,000 US jobs, 17% of the work force, and closing an unspecified number of plants over the next 3 1/2 years.

Monday, June 06, 2005

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Corn and soybeans are entering a critical part of the growing season, when the crops must become established. Most of Illinois received less than 40% of normal precipitation during the March-to-May period, causing moisture supplies to slowly vanish

  • Factory orders in Germany were down 2.9% in April, weaker than expected.

  • Year over Year Capital spending in Japan increased an impressive 7.4% in the first quarter.

  • A Holstein cow in northern Japan has been confirmed as Japan's 20th case of mad cow disease.

  • The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee approved its portion of energy legislation that would increase the use of biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol.

  • Australia, the world's second-biggest wheat exporter, cut its production forecast for the grain by 29 percent because of a drought in the country's southeast.

  • Thailand’s economy shrank for the first time in four years in the first quarter of this year, as a drought parched crops and tourists stayed away after the Boxing Day tsunami.

Sunday, June 05, 2005

Australian farmers battle drought, no end in sight
Eastern Australia is into the third month of the worst drought farmers can remember -- more severe than the 2002 drought which the weather bureau classes the worst in a century.
Investor confidence shattered as China stock market goes from bad to worse
"The market has been falling for years and investors are numb," said Zhang Qi, analyst from Haitong Securities.

Friday, June 03, 2005

Quick Overview

  • Hiring in the United States slowed in May to the weakest in nearly two years, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 78,000 and the unemployment rate declined to 5.1% from 5.2%.

  • The ISM's index of U.S. services fell from 61.7 to 58.5 in May, lower than expected, but still a sign of growth.


  • An index of service activity in the U.K. dropped from 56.5 to 55.1 in May, still a sign of growth.

  • Retail sales in the Euro zone were down 1.2% in April and down 0.9 YoY.

  • ED&F Man expects the 2004-2005 world cocoa crop to fall short of consumption by 175,000 tons. The International Cocoa Organization recently estimated a 44,000 ton production deficit.
Forecast of deficient Indian monsoon? Lower Soybean, Sugar and Cotton Ccrops? In June, rainfall is likely to be 11 per cent below normal in north India, 22 per cent below normal in west India, 6 per cent below normal in south India, 60 per cent below normal in central India and 40 per cent below normal in south-central India.
History Matters Butler Shaffer on the decline of centralized power structures and the French and Dutch "NO" votes.

Thursday, June 02, 2005

Quick Overview

  • Orders placed with factories rose 0.9% in April, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

  • The Department of Labor said that U.S. productivity increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of 2005. Labor costs increased at an annual rate of 3.3%.

  • The DoE said that crude oil supplies were up 1.4 million barrels last week to 333.8 million barrels. Unleaded supplies were up 1.3 million barrels and distillates were up 700,000 barrels. Refinery utilization jumped from 94.6% to 96.2% of capacity last week.
    The DOE also said that natural gas supplies were up 86 billion cubic feet last week to 1.778 trillion cubic feet. Current supplies are up 15% from a year ago.

  • The World Gold Council said that world gold demand totaled 977 tons in the first quarter of 2005, up 26% YoY. YoY, Jewelry demand was up 19%.

  • Playmate of the Month,
    Jamie Westenhiser, says she is abandoning a promising career as a model in order to "take up real estate investing." ( bells ringing?)
Destroying Companies and Countries

The American public was so whipped up in a frenzy over Enron that it didn’t care whose blood was spilled. Just as someone had to pay for September 11 – even if it is our own troops and tens of thousands of innocent Iraqis who had no more to do with September 11 than the US troops who are losing their lives and limbs – someone had to pay for Enron.

Wednesday, June 01, 2005

Quick Overview

  • The ISM index of U.S. manufacturing activity dropped from 53.3 to 51.4 in May.

  • U.S. construction spending was at a record high annual rate of $1.07 trillion in April, up 0.5% on the month and up 8.2% YoY.

  • The purchasing managers index for the eurozone, fell from 49.2 in April to a 22-month low of 48.7 in May. A figure below 50 represents contraction.

  • Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher implied that the fed may be close to the end of raising the federal funds rate. On the news the DowJones Industrial Average jumped 82.39 points, or 0.79%, to 10549.87. it's highest finish in 2 1/2 months. The same news pushed Treasury-bond prices higher and yields lower, leaving the yield of the 10-year Treasury note at 3.894%, its lowest level in14 months.

  • Growth in the world’s tanker fleets is outstripping demand, forcing charter rates down to new lows and putting pressure on shipping company share prices – Lloyd's List reports.

  • Copper inventories fell 900 tons to 44,325 tons.

  • Australia's GDP increased 0.7% in the first quarter of 2005, less than expected.


Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Quick Overview

  • An index of Chicago-area business declined 65.6 to 54.1 in May for a second straight month, the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago reported Tuesday.

  • The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence increased from 97.5 to 102.2 in May.

  • Germany's unemployment rate dropped from 12% to 11.6% in May.

  • The International Cocoa Organization said that the net world cocoa crop will total 3.18 million tons in 2004-2005, down from 3.46 million tons in the previous year. Ending stocks are expected to drop from 1.44 to 1.40 million tons.

  • Japan's unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.4% in April, the lowest in over six years. Industrial production in Japan was up 2.2% in April, roughly as expected.

  • Canada's GDP was up 0.6% in the first quarter of 2005 and up 1.6% from a year ago, slightly less than expected.



Friday, May 27, 2005

Quick Overview

  • U.S. personal income was up 0 .7% in April.

  • The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for May fell to 86.9, the fourth straight drop and the lowest level since September 2003, though it rose from a preliminary reading two weeks ago.

  • Personal spending rose for a third consecutive month in April, rising 0.6%, the Commerce Department said Friday.

  • YoY Hong Kong's GDP increased 6% in the first quarter.

Thursday, May 26, 2005

LME bets on future in plastics
The London Metal Exchange, a bastion of tradition in the financial world, is breaking from its roots in the base metals industry on Friday by launching two plastics futures contracts, the first non-metallic futures contract launched by the 128-year-old exchange.
The Short View: Has China hit the brakes? But imports are another matter. Morgan Stanley points out that growth has slowed to 13.5 per cent in the first four months of the year, down from 36 per cent in 2004. This slackening of pace may explain the developments in the commodity markets. The Baltic Dry Freight index, a measure of shipping activity, has plunged from a high of 6,208 in December to 3,366.

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the first quarter, faster than a previous 3.1% estimate in late April, the Commerce Department said Thursday. YoY, GDP was up 3.7%.


  • U.S. jobless claims were up 1,000 to 323,000 in the week ended May 21, the Labor Department said Thursday

  • The core rate of personal consumption expenditures, was up an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter.

  • The Commerce Department said that early, YoY estimate of corporate profits from current production were up 14% in the first quarter.

  • London inventories of Copper declined 2,825 tons to 46,400 tons.

  • The U.S. Census Bureau said that 139.4 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April,

  • The USDA's drought monitor shows an increasing area of unusually dry conditions from Michigan down to Louisiana.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that natural gas supplies were at 1.692 trillion cubic feet - up 93 billion cubic feet.

  • U.S. domestic cotton mill usage declined to an annual rate of 6.17 to 6.14 million bales in April.

  • The USDA estimates 2005-2006 world sugar production at 146.3 million tons, up from the previous years 142.1 million tons. The 2005-2006 world ending stocks are expected to decrease from 35.8 to 34.2 million tons - or 23% of usage.

  • YoY New York Customs District saw overall air-cargo tonnage increase 1.67 percent in March.

Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders rose 1.9% in April, stronger than expected and the first gain in 05. Excluding transportation, orders were down 0.2% on the month.

  • median sales price of a new home rose 3.8% YoY to $230,800.
    U.S. new home sales were at an annual rate of 1.316 million units in April, up 0.2% from March's pace and a new record high. So far in 2005, new home sales are up 6% from a year ago. The

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that crude supplies were down 1.6 million barrels last week to 332.4 million barrels. Unleaded supplies were up 600,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were up 1.6 million barrels.

  • China can and should move quickly toward a more flexible currency to help rebalance world trade, Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke said. And a Chinese trade official on Wednesday commented that a move to allow the country's currency to trade more flexibly would eventually involve attaching the yuan to a basket of currencies

  • Goldman Sachs reiterated buy ratings on Internet heavyweights eBay Inc., Yahoo Inc. and Google Inc. on Wednesday, saying the online industry this year will see a jump in advertising as broadband access continues to spread.

  • The U.K.'s National Statistics office reduced the estimate of first quarter growth from 0.6% to 0.5%. YoY GDP was up 2.7%.

  • An index of German business confidence from the Ifo Institute dropped from 93.3 to 92.9 in May, the lowest in two years.

  • YoY Japan's exports were up 7.8% in April, while imports were up 12.7%.

  • Malaysia's GDP was up an annual rate of 5.7% in the first quarter, more than expected.

  • A USDA official estimated Vietnam's 2005-2006 coffee crop at 12.2 million bags, down 1.8 million bags from the previous year.


Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Quick Overview

  • Global investorconfidence slumped for the second month in a row in May to its lowest level since October 1998

  • Sales of existing U.S. homes rose 4.5% in April to a record seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.18 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

  • The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service released its estimates yesterday of Brazil's coffee crop. They anticipate a harvest of 36.5 million bags of coffee in 2005-2006, down from 42.4 million bags the previous year. The 2005-2006 Arabica crop is estimated at 26.0 million bags, down from 33.4 million bags in 2004-2005. Brazil's ending stocks are expected to fall from 10.44 to 4.81 million bags in 2005-2006.

  • Canada's composite index of leading indicators was up 0.4% in April at 203.6.

  • The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reduced its 2005 growth forecast for the Euro zone from 1.9% to 1.2%.

  • The volume of cargo passing through China's ports every year is expected to rise by more than 50 percent in the next five years.

  • An index of services in Japan was down 1% in March, weaker than expected.