Quick Overview

• China's gross domestic product expanded 9.4 percent in the first quarter of 2005 from a year earlier, revised down from an initial estimate of 9.5 percent.
  

• Chinese government statistics released Monday showed the combined profits of China's industrial firms rose 15.6% on year in the first four months of 2005, down 30.1 percentage points from growth in the same period last year.
  
  

• Stock funds pull in $18 billion in April – Lipper .. much of the money continued to stream to international funds as investors found better returns abroad..
  
  
  

• The Chinese government has sent 3 million doses of avian flu vaccine to protect farm birds in the western province of Qinghai.
  
  

Dollar Climbs Versus Euro as France's Voters May Reject EU Constitution

The dollar rose to a seven-month high against the euro after an opinion poll showed French voters will reject the European Union constitution and France's economy barely grew in the first quarter.

Out of the doghouse?
And then Murphy's Law struck again. Almost at the very point that many of the latter-day converts to the strategy threw in the towel, the strategy started working again

'Conundrum' revisited: cheap borrowing persists

Three months after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan described peculiarly low long-term U.S. borrowing costs as a "conundrum," 10-year rates are now even lower and there is little more clarity as to why.

Quick Overview

• America's bloated trade deficits probably wouldn't be helped by China revamping its currency system as the Bush administration has been pressing Beijing to do, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Friday. He also said that it was difficult to know when the economy was balanced and the federal funds rate had reached a neutral level.
  

• South Korea's GDP was up 0.4% in the first quarter.
  
  

• Argentina's President Nestor Kirchner on Friday said the unemployment rate climbed to 12.3 percent in March from 12.1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
  
  

• China said that on June 1st they will be raising export tariffs on 74 categories of textiles.
  
  

• Vietnam reported its 53rd death from the deadly bird flu virus.
  

• The USDA said that there were 10.639 million head of cattle on feed as of May 1st, up 2.5% from a year ago. April placements were up 4% from a year ago and marketing’s were down 5%. The report is called neutral to bearish
  

• The USDA said that there were 89.5 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage on April 30th, up 85% YoY. Frozen pork totaled 563.5 million pounds, up 26% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that, as of April 30th, there were 1.66 billion pounds of frozen orange juice in U.S. cold storage, down 16% YoY.
  

• YoY Consumer prices in Canada were up 2.4% in April, while the core rate was up 1.7%.
  

• France's GDP was up 0.2% in the first quarter.
  

• There is a concern about the weather and the newly-planted corn crop.

Quick Overview

• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 20,000 to 321,000 in the latest week, the Labor Department said Thursday.
  

• The index of leading indicators show a definite loss of forward momentum by falling 0.2% in April after a downwardly revised 0.6% drop in March from 0.4% previously,
  

• Mexico leading economic indicator edged 0.3 percent higher in March.
  
  

• Taiwan's economy grew an unexpectedly weak 2.5 percent YoY.

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that natural gas supplies were up 90 billion cubic feet to 1.599 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now up 16% from a year ago.
  

• This week's USDA Drought Monitor is showing relatively new occurrence of abnormally dry conditions in Michigan, Illinois, Oklahoma, and the Mississippi delta .
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro zone were up 2.1% in April from a year ago, the same as in March. Also, industrial production was down .2% in March.

• The International Monetary Fund's forecast of global economic growth this year is unchanged at 4.3 percent although the U.S. current account deficit is still weighing on the world economy.
  
  
  

• UK Retail sales jumped by 0.5% much better than the 0.0% expected.
  
  

• Japan's economy is recovering at a moderate pace, the government said on Thursday, keeping its assessment unchanged.
  
  

• The Philly Fed index fell to 7.3 from 25.3 in April, the lowest since June 2003. It was the largest one-month decline since January 2001.

• Brazil: Amazon destruction accelerating -
  26,000 sq km of forest were chopped down in the last 12 months .
  
  
  
  
  

• The Bush administration is imposing new limits on the amount of clothing that can be imported from China. Everybody is espousing free trade, but there shouldn't be double standards," Mr. Bo said to a meeting of international business leaders. "When you have an absolute advantage, you advocate free trade and make everyone open the door, but when developing countries begin to challenge you, you immediately set limits and shut the door
  

• Greenspan, told an Atlanta housing conference that Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) had gotten too big for their britches, "We are highly dependent on the risk managers at Fannie and Freddie to do everything right," he said.
  

Multi-Tasking

Almost Unnoticed, Bipartisan Budget Anxiety




"The only thing the United States is able to do a little after 2040 is pay interest on massive and growing federal debt," Walker said. "The model blows up in the mid-2040s. What does that mean? Argentina."

Quick Overview

• The consumer price index increased 0.5% in April, due to a 4.5% increase in energy prices. Food prices jumped 0.7%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was unchanged in April, the lowest rate of underlying inflation since November 2003.
  

• Oil prices fell to a three-month low near $47 a barrel on Wednesday after the DOE repotted inventories of oil in the United States rose 4.3 million barrels last week to 334 million barrels, the 13th increase in the last 14 weeks - and the highest level in six years. Unleaded gasoline supplies were up 1.1 million barrels and heating oil supplies were up 200,000 barrels.

• The unemployment rate in the U.K. remained steady at 4.7% last quarter.
  
  
  
• China rejected U.S. pressure for quick action toward revaluing its currency and criticized U.S. and European curbs on surging textile imports as unfair.
  
  
• U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns has hit a roadblock as he stumps for the Central American Free Trade Agreement. Idaho sugar beet farmers are opposing the pact, known as CAFTA, because of provisions allowing 107,000 metric tons of sugar to be imported into the U.S.
  
  
  

• Wholesale sales in Canada were up 0.5% in March to C$39.1 billion.
  
  

• Retail sales in Australia were up 1.2% in the first quarter, stronger than expected.
  
  
  
• Hong Kong caps value of its currency but government denies that the move signaled China would soon revalue its currency.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. wholesale prices increased 0.6% in April. The YoY gain in the PPI slowed to 4.8% in April from 4.9% in March. Core prices were up 2.6% YoY, unchanged from March.
  

• Industrial production fell 0.2% in April. Capacity utilization eased to 79.2% from 79.4%.
  

• Construction of new U.S. houses rose 11% in April to a seasonally adjusted 2.04 million annualized units.
  
  
• Japan's economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the first quarter of 2005, more than double the rate expected as robust private consumption and corporate investment more than made up for weak export growth.
  
  
• Lease rates are lower due to a large surplus of new containers that has built up in China over the past few weeks as factories over-reacted to last year’s shortages.
  
  
• U.S. manufacturing output growth will slow to a 3.5 percent pace this year from 5.1 percent in 2004 as both business and household investment weaken, the Manufacturing Institute said on Tuesday.

• Researchers at the Carnegie Institution's Geophysical Laboratory have learned to produce 10-carat, half-inch thick single-crystal diamonds at rapid growth rates (100 micrometers per hour) .

• The average price of retail diesel fuel fell for a third straight week, dropping 3.8 cents to $2.189 a gallon, the Department of Energy reported Monday.

• YoY Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 1.9% , under the 2.0% target rate.

Ratio of the spot price of gold to the Philadelphia XAU Index

Per reader request we have added the ratio of the spot price of gold to the Philadelphia XAU Index here, and the Purchasing Managers Index here. An article describing the above can be read here.

Quick Overview

• According to the Investment Company Institute, total assets of exchange-traded funds were $228.7 billion in March, an increase of 2.2% from February.
  
  

• President Bush urged Congress today to encourage the development of ethanol and biodiesel to reduce the U.S.'s dependence on oil.

• The International Coffee Organization kept its estimate of 2005-2006 world production at 106 million (60-kg) bags.
  U.S. Green Coffee stocks were up 88,865 bags from a month ago to 5.78 million bags on April 30th.
  

• Indonesia's GDP was up 6.3% in the first quarter, stronger than expected.

Quick Overview

• Consumer sentiment fell in mid-May, according to a University of Michigan
  index issued Friday that registered a drop to 85.3 from an April level of 87.7.
  
  
• Mexico's central bank held monetary policy steady on Friday after core inflation moved lower in April, easing fears that consumer prices may again be rising too high.
  
  

• Russia struck a landmark deal on Friday to repay up to $15 billion it owes to the West, sealing its rapid transformation from economic basket case to emerging markets powerhouse.
  

• Machinery orders in Japan were up 1.9% in March, stronger than expected. but the government forecast a fall in the following three months, a reminder that the economy's recovery is still shaky.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims were up 4,000 to 340,000 last week.
  

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales were 1.4% higher in April.
  

• The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn is 2.540 billion bushels, up from 2.214 billion bushels in 2004-2005.
  Soybeans is 290 million bushels, down from 355 million bushels in 2004-2005.
  Wheat is 678 million bushels, up from 541 million bushels in 2004-2005.
  Sugar is 759,000 tons, down from 1,343,000 tons in 2004-2005.
  Cotton is 6.30 million bales, down from 7.10 million bales in 2004-2005.
  

• The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn is 122 million tons, down from 129 million tons in 2004-2005.
  Wheat is 147 million tons, down from 150 million tons in 2004-2005.
  Cotton is 45 million bales, down from 49 million bales in 2004-2005.
  

• The USDA kept its estimate of Florida's orange production at 151 million boxes, but increased the estimated juice yield from 1.58 to 1.60 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.
  

• The USDA estimated this year's U.S. winter wheat production at 1.59 billion bushels, up 6% YoY.
  

• Bullish outlook for FedEx ..FedEx reiterated that it expects profit to range between $1.40 per share to $1.50 per share for the fiscal fourth quarter ending May 31.

• Shipbuilder continuing to book new orders... the world's three largest shipyards, have been winning orders at record prices to build more technologically complex vessels.

• YoY Germany's GDP was up 1.0% in the first quarter.
  

• Australia's unemployment rate stayed at 5.1% in April.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground natural gas supplies were up 54 billion cubic feet last week to 1.509 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now up 17% from a year ago.
  

• Italy's GDP contracted 0.5% in the first quarter of 2005, weaker than expected.
  

Seeing vessels half empty?The advance of globalisation and booming world trade have provided bumper profits for the world’s container-ship companies

Investment Tools Shipping Index

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $55.0 billion in March in the largest drop in over three years, as exports hit a record and imports from China declined. March exports were $102.2 billion and imports were $157.2 billion resulting in a goods and services deficit of $55.0 billion, $5.6 billion less than the $60.6 billion in February.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that crude oil supplies were up 2.7 million barrels last week to 329.7 million barrels. Unleaded supplies were up 200,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were up 500,000 barrels. September crude oil closed down $1.28 at $52.75.
  

• The Bank of England lowered its 2005 growth estimate from 2.7% to 2.6%. Imports in the U.K. were down 0.4% in March and exports were up 3.4%.
  

• Canada's exports were up 0.2% to C$35.8 billion in March and imports were stable at C$31.5 billion.
  

• The International Energy Agency said that China's demand for oil increased 4.5% in the first quarter from a year ago.

• YoY consumer prices in Germany were up 1.6% in April .
  

• YoY Household spending in Japan was down 0.2% in March.
  
  
• Canada's trade surplus hit C$4.2 billion ($3.4 billion) in March, up from February's revised figure of C$4.15 billion, Statistics Canada said on Wednesday.
  
  
• China has not changed its currency policy, the central bank said on Wednesday, after financial markets were worked up by a report in the nation's top newspaper that predicted the yuan would be revalued next week. On the other hand, Goldman thinks that the Chinese renminbi could be revalued by 5-10%, so says Hong Liang, Executive Director and China Economist at Goldman Sachs Asia

Real wages in the US are falling at their fastest rate in 14 years, according to data surveyed by the Financial Times.
Inflation rose 3.1 per cent in the year to March but salaries climbed just 2.4 per cent, according to the Employment Cost Index. In the final three months of 2004, real wages fell by 0.9 per cent.

Quick Overview

• The British Retail Consortium said that year-over-year same store sales in the U.K. were down 4.7% in April , the biggest plunge in at least ten years

• Deloitte Research said that US consumer spending slowed in April due to lower wages and higher taxes.

The June S&P 500 is lower due to unconfirmed rumors that a large London hedge fund may be in financial trouble."I think there's a lot of concern out there that where there's smoke there's fire as far as these hedge fund rumors, and what does it mean for the rest of the market and is there another shoe to drop type of thing"

Confidence in US economy at lowest since 2001 Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence said their economic optimism index slipped 0.2 points to 47.2 from April's 47.4. A reading above 50 indicates optimism while a reading below 50 indicates pessimism.