Overview
The Energy Department reported a 600,000-barrel increase in crude inventories. Unleaded supplies were up 1.8 million barrels and heating oil supplies were up 300,000 barrels.
Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister was quoted as saying he sees $40 to $50 oil for the entire year.
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U.S. Jobless claims reversed course and rose in the latest week, the Labor Department reported. The number of initial claims in the week ending February 19 rose 9,000 to 312,000. This is the first increase after three straight weekly declines.
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U.S. durable goods orders were down 0.9% in January, weaker than expected and the first drop in three months. Excluding transportation, orders were up 0.8% on the month. Orders for core capital goods increased 2.9 percent in January after a 3.3
percent gain in December.
"Durable goods manufacturers should be dancing a jig," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.
Shipments of core capital goods - the best monthly measure of business investment - increased 3.7 percent in January.
Inventories of durable goods increased 0.9 percent in January, while unfilled orders fell 0.2 percent.
Orders for aircraft sank 27.1 percent in January after falling 16.8 percent in December.
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The USDA expects 2005 farm exports to total $59 billion and farm imports to total $58 billion.
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The U.S. Census Bureau said 148.5 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in January, less than expected.
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From the Journal of Commerce comes news that there is no let-up for West Coast ports. January began the year the way 2004 ended: with double-digit growth in containerized imports from Asia. >> IT's Shipping Index
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The Consumers Union asked Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns to order new tests on a cow suspected in November 2004 of having mad cow disease. The consumer group said the U.S. Department of Agriculture failed to use an internationally recognized test known as Western blot when it retested the animal and gave it a clean bill of health. "The USDA should operate out of an 'abundance of caution' in its efforts to keep the U.S. food supply safe," the group wrote Johanns.
Japan meanwhile, has yet to lift its ban on U.S. beef imports.
There is also one more cow in northern Japan that has reportedly been found with mad cow disease. If confirmed, it will be Japan's 15th case.
Also, the USDA continues to say that the border will open to young Canadian cattle on March 7th.
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Japanese Deflation Deepened in January as Core Prices Dropped 0.3 Percent
Japanese consumer prices fell in January at the fastest pace since May, extending the nation's period of deflation to almost seven years and making it less likely the central bank will end its zero-rate policy.
Thursday, February 24, 2005
Wednesday, February 23, 2005
Today
Overview
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The Bank of Korea softened yesterday's dollar comments by saying that even though they want to diversify into other currencies, they have no plans to "sell" U.S. dollars "at this time".
As Carl Weinber, chief economist for High Frequency Economics put it in the Wall Street Journal this morning, "People are terrified of central-bank diversification." But their really big fears are about Japan and China. Between them, they have over $1.4 trillion in reserves.
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U.S. consumer prices were up 0.1% in January and up 3.0% from a year ago. The core rate was up .2% in January and up 2.3% from a year ago. The data showing tame inflation provided a modest lift for stock-index futures, after a dramatic decline yesterday.
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Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest FOMC meeting find members supporting the current policy of measured increases in the federal funds rate and expecting inflation to remain low and manageable.
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A cold front that will reach the southern soybean-growing states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana this weekend won't eliminate the current drought in the region, according to the local Somar Meteorologia weather service.
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A World Health Organization official warned that health agencies need to prepare to contain the spread of avian flu, saying that the flu could soon become more deadly than SARS. The spread of bird flu has been a factor leading to higher pork demand.
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Ifo's index of business confidence in Germany dropped from 97.5 to 95.5 in February.
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YoY Japan's exports increased 3.2% in January while imports were up 11.6%.
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Lumber futures are in new contract high. And so is Coffee.
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Bush May Have Smoked Marijuana - Ohhhhhhhhh Nooooooooooo! But perhaps he was just worried about Alzheimer's
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The Bank of Korea softened yesterday's dollar comments by saying that even though they want to diversify into other currencies, they have no plans to "sell" U.S. dollars "at this time".
As Carl Weinber, chief economist for High Frequency Economics put it in the Wall Street Journal this morning, "People are terrified of central-bank diversification." But their really big fears are about Japan and China. Between them, they have over $1.4 trillion in reserves.
-----------
U.S. consumer prices were up 0.1% in January and up 3.0% from a year ago. The core rate was up .2% in January and up 2.3% from a year ago. The data showing tame inflation provided a modest lift for stock-index futures, after a dramatic decline yesterday.
--------------
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest FOMC meeting find members supporting the current policy of measured increases in the federal funds rate and expecting inflation to remain low and manageable.
--------------
A cold front that will reach the southern soybean-growing states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana this weekend won't eliminate the current drought in the region, according to the local Somar Meteorologia weather service.
--------------
A World Health Organization official warned that health agencies need to prepare to contain the spread of avian flu, saying that the flu could soon become more deadly than SARS. The spread of bird flu has been a factor leading to higher pork demand.
-------------
Ifo's index of business confidence in Germany dropped from 97.5 to 95.5 in February.
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YoY Japan's exports increased 3.2% in January while imports were up 11.6%.
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Lumber futures are in new contract high. And so is Coffee.
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Bush May Have Smoked Marijuana - Ohhhhhhhhh Nooooooooooo! But perhaps he was just worried about Alzheimer's
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A back-to-the-future Jeffersonian liberalism ?
The new desktop-empowered generation, turned on by Republican economic choice, but turned off by the social-cultural intolerance of the GOP Taliban wing, could embrace Democrats if we return to our founder's philosophy --
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Extraordinarily Unprecedented
Bank lending for commercial and industrial loans surged 6.6 per cent since May 5, the month before the Fed began tightening. Mergers and acquisitions in this year's first six weeks reached the fastest pace since 2000. Housing starts unexpectedly rose 4.7 per cent in January to a 21-year high after a 14 per cent surge in December. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage two weeks ago dropped to a 10-month low of 5.48 per cent.
India is in a hurry.
How big is the market? Already, the futures market for gold and silver is about four times and 40 times, that of spot markets respectively. With imports of over 700 tonnes of gold every year and around 10,000-15,000 tonnes of gold stocked in the country, the futures market is definitely raring to grow. In other countries like America, futures volumes are as high as 72.9 and 55 (‘01) times the gold and silver spot markets respectively.
Today
The Dollar had a bit of a rough day. The Bank of (South) Korea said yesterday that they plan to "diversify" their reserves into other currencies, and South Korea is the fourth largest holder of $ reserves. (Domino Theory anyone?) Add to that crude oil's rapid rise to above $51 a barrel - and it spooks people. (How smart are Specialists and Members? See previous)
Our trusted Shipping Index was a bit weaker today.
NYSE Advancing Declining Issues & Volume are probably overdone and due to bounce.
NYSE Advance Decline Line is below the 20 day average.
S&P and Dow Point & Figure charts show O's but no sell yet.
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U.S. Consumer Confidence came in at 104 , down from 105.1, but still better than expected.
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YoY, consumer prices in Canada were up 2.0% in January, down from 2.1% in December.
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Canada's index of composite leading indicators was up 0.2% in January to 201.6.
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Consumer spending in France was up 1.5% in January and up 3.8% YoY.
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In regards to soybeans there are continued concerns about hot and dry conditions in Southern Brazil. AgRural, estimated Brazil's soybean crop at 60 million tons, less than the USDA's estimate of 63 million tons (2.3 billion bushels). There is a chance that Southern Brazil may get some scattered showers this week, but high temperatures are expected in the upper-90's and low-100's.
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The USDA said that there were 63.5 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage on January 31st, up 0.7% YoY. Frozen pork inventories totaled 499 million pounds, down 1% YoY.
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The USDA said that as of January 31st, there were 1.49 billion pounds of frozen orange juice in U.S. cold storage, down 8% YoY.
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Our trusted Shipping Index was a bit weaker today.
NYSE Advancing Declining Issues & Volume are probably overdone and due to bounce.
NYSE Advance Decline Line is below the 20 day average.
S&P and Dow Point & Figure charts show O's but no sell yet.
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U.S. Consumer Confidence came in at 104 , down from 105.1, but still better than expected.
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YoY, consumer prices in Canada were up 2.0% in January, down from 2.1% in December.
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Canada's index of composite leading indicators was up 0.2% in January to 201.6.
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Consumer spending in France was up 1.5% in January and up 3.8% YoY.
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In regards to soybeans there are continued concerns about hot and dry conditions in Southern Brazil. AgRural, estimated Brazil's soybean crop at 60 million tons, less than the USDA's estimate of 63 million tons (2.3 billion bushels). There is a chance that Southern Brazil may get some scattered showers this week, but high temperatures are expected in the upper-90's and low-100's.
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The USDA said that there were 63.5 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage on January 31st, up 0.7% YoY. Frozen pork inventories totaled 499 million pounds, down 1% YoY.
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The USDA said that as of January 31st, there were 1.49 billion pounds of frozen orange juice in U.S. cold storage, down 8% YoY.
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People had expected the weather to be better in Brazil
Hotter weather in Brazil's major soybean-growing areas of Rio Grande do Sul, Parana and southern Mato Grosso are damaging plants just as beans are forming in pods, the Meteorlogix weather service said yesterday. In Argentina, more rain is needed to prevent crop losses, it said.
Korea "rebalancing" out of Dollars
The dollar fell against the euro by more than a cent overnight after it became known that the Korean central bank is rebalancing its reserves away from the dollar and in favor of a basket of other currencies. Korea is the 5th largest US creditor, owning $69 billion of our US Treasury debt. That they've acknowledged selling dollars leads to a suspicion that others also have - and more will follow.
Monday, February 21, 2005
Something Positive
Commercial and Industrial loans of weekly reporting large commercial banks have clearly picked up. Finally, it took a while.
Where’s the strongest stock market to be found?
And the answer is ............ Slovakia up 143% year over year.(At least on our list)
Friday, February 18, 2005
Today
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 95.5 to 94.2 in February, weaker than expected.
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The core U.S. PPI was up 0.8% in January, much more than expected and
the largest monthly gain in over six years. The jump in prices was blamed on higher prices for cars and cigarettes. Overall, producer prices were up 0.3% for the month. On the news US Treasury Bonds closed down 27/32. Perhaps afraid of an annualized inflation rate of 9.6 percent?----------
The U.K. posted a budget surplus of 6.6 billion pounds in January, more than expected and the most in three years. Corporate tax receipts in January were 31% higher than a year ago.
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Wholesale sales in Canada were up 1.1% in December to C$38.7 billion, the third monthly gain.
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France's GDP was up .8% in the fourth quarter and up 2.3% for all of 2004, the best performance in four years.
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Consumer prices in Germany were down .4% in January and up 1.6% YoY. The 12-month rate of inflation was therefore substantially slower than the 2.1 percent recorded in December
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The Brazilian firm, Safras e Mercado, estimated the current soybean crop at 61.2 million tons, less than the USDA's estimate of 63 million tons (1.7 billion bushels).
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The USDA said that there were 11.334 million head of cattle on feed as of February 1st, less than expected. January placements were up 7.5% and marketing’s were up slightly from a year ago. Cattle are expected to trade higher on Tuesday.
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World oil prices rose on fears of an Opec production cut amid expectations of colder weather in the United States' northeast, analysts said.
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Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, earned $10.27 billion in 2004, up 13% from the previous year. Revenues were up 11% to $288.2 billion.
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Emerging markets most popular for foreign property. Nick Clark, managing director of the Homebuyer Show, commented that opportunities to purchase property abroad are now within the reach of more people than ever.” Buying a property overseas has been a distant dream for many people for a long time," he said.
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The United States has been Japan's largest trade partner after the WWII. Therefore, it can be said that the development of Japan's economy depends on the US economy to a certain extent. However, the latest statistics of the Japanese government shows that Japan's trade with China surpassed that between Japan and the US in 2004 and China replaced the US as Japan's largest trade partner. Such a news intrigued extreme echoes in various circles of Japan.
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Copper prices at 16-year high amid strong Chinese demand. Copper has risen sharply over the past year as the strongest growth of the global economy for 30 years boosted the prices of commodities across the board..... Global inventory levels of the metal are at record lows but mining companies are beginning to increase the amount of copper they produce.
-----------
The core U.S. PPI was up 0.8% in January, much more than expected and
the largest monthly gain in over six years. The jump in prices was blamed on higher prices for cars and cigarettes. Overall, producer prices were up 0.3% for the month. On the news US Treasury Bonds closed down 27/32. Perhaps afraid of an annualized inflation rate of 9.6 percent?----------
The U.K. posted a budget surplus of 6.6 billion pounds in January, more than expected and the most in three years. Corporate tax receipts in January were 31% higher than a year ago.
----------
Wholesale sales in Canada were up 1.1% in December to C$38.7 billion, the third monthly gain.
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France's GDP was up .8% in the fourth quarter and up 2.3% for all of 2004, the best performance in four years.
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Consumer prices in Germany were down .4% in January and up 1.6% YoY. The 12-month rate of inflation was therefore substantially slower than the 2.1 percent recorded in December
-----------
The Brazilian firm, Safras e Mercado, estimated the current soybean crop at 61.2 million tons, less than the USDA's estimate of 63 million tons (1.7 billion bushels).
------------
The USDA said that there were 11.334 million head of cattle on feed as of February 1st, less than expected. January placements were up 7.5% and marketing’s were up slightly from a year ago. Cattle are expected to trade higher on Tuesday.
------------
World oil prices rose on fears of an Opec production cut amid expectations of colder weather in the United States' northeast, analysts said.
------------
Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, earned $10.27 billion in 2004, up 13% from the previous year. Revenues were up 11% to $288.2 billion.
--------------
Emerging markets most popular for foreign property. Nick Clark, managing director of the Homebuyer Show, commented that opportunities to purchase property abroad are now within the reach of more people than ever.” Buying a property overseas has been a distant dream for many people for a long time," he said.
---------
The United States has been Japan's largest trade partner after the WWII. Therefore, it can be said that the development of Japan's economy depends on the US economy to a certain extent. However, the latest statistics of the Japanese government shows that Japan's trade with China surpassed that between Japan and the US in 2004 and China replaced the US as Japan's largest trade partner. Such a news intrigued extreme echoes in various circles of Japan.
-----------
Copper prices at 16-year high amid strong Chinese demand. Copper has risen sharply over the past year as the strongest growth of the global economy for 30 years boosted the prices of commodities across the board..... Global inventory levels of the metal are at record lows but mining companies are beginning to increase the amount of copper they produce.
Thursday, February 17, 2005
China
The Canadian Press reported that "China has surpassed the United States in consumption of every basic food, energy and industrial commodity except oil."
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