All Charts are up to date.

One more time: U.S. Inflation and Fed Funds.

What’s going to give, Inflation or Fed Funds?

Majority of Covid misinformation came from 12 people, report finds

CCDH finds ‘disinformation dozen’ have combined following of 59 million people across multiple social media platforms.

I remember well when the CPI first hit 5%, and the Fed called it "transitory" and rates went to 13%. I also remember Sugar going from some 2 cents to 66 cents. Funny thing history - much to remember...

Below Fed Funds Rate minus CPI

 And the latest Covid leaders are? Florida "leading" and Texas!

As Covid cases rise in Florida, Governor DeSantis digs at Fauci with merchandise .. But perhaps the merchandise with the best sales potential are the drink koozies and T-shirts that say “Don’t Fauci My Florida”.

• Joe Biden and Facebook (FB the plague on humanity) engaged in a testy spat about misinformation, as America’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention described a surging covid-19 caseload with 99.5% of new patients unvaccinated.

 

It’s all mostly luck!

The results are something of an eye-opener. Their simulations accurately reproduce the wealth distribution in the real world. But the wealthiest individuals are not the most talented (although they must have a certain level of talent). They are the luckiest. 

Quick Overview is up to date

Lumber keeps on crashing. 

Home Depot etc. evidently still not buying. Deflation?

Notes today:

• Reuters: U.S. Retail sales rose 0.6% last month. Data for May was revised down to show sales falling 1.7% instead of declining 1.3% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales dropping 0.4%. 

• (Reuters) -Binance said on Friday it had stopped selling digital tokens linked to shares. 

• Covid is surging, and LA County has reinstated mask mandates for all. Case numbers are climbing across most of the country as the Delta variant spreads among "unvaccinated" people. Arkansas, Missouri, Florida and Nevada are experiencing full-fledged outbreaks.

• (Reuters) - China's long-awaited national carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) opened at 48 yuan ($7.42) per tonne on Friday, according to reports from Chinese media. 

• The Federal Reserve will probably end up requiring banks to conduct tests to judge their vulnerability to the effects of climate change, Chairman Jerome Powell proposed. 

• Bloomberg: Benchmark global hog futures have surged more than 25% in Chicago this year on strong demand and higher feed costs. By contrast, pork prices in China have slumped more than 50% on increased supplies as domestic herds rebound from African swine fever. U.S. pork is now more expensive than domestic meat after tariffs and freight. 

• The WSJ reported Thursday that chip giant Intel Corp. INTC is exploring a $30 billion deal to buy GlobalFoundries.

• Moderna’s (MRNA) next act is using mRNA against flu, Zika, HIV, and cancer. 

 Marine Traffic

 I'll take my chances!

Courtesy of pxmolina

• Inflation hits 13-Year High in the US
• Britain’s inflation rate rose to 2.5% in June, far exceeding expectations ..

• China's gross domestic product was up 7.9% YoY

• World Health Organization (WHO) says that the Lambda variant has now been found in 29 countries, and it classified it as a “global variant of interest,". It may lead to a two-to-threefold reduction in vaccine-triggered antibodies, compared with the original COVID-19 strain. 

• The Tennessee Department of Health will halt all adolescent vaccine outreach – notjust for coronavirus, but all diseases – amid pressure from Republican state lawmakers, according to an internal report and agency emails obtained by the Tennessean. If the health department must issue any information about vaccines, staff are instructed to strip the agency logo off the documents.. Dark Ages!
• People who are not vaccinated are bearing the vast majority of disease burden, making up over 99% of hospitalizations and deaths.

• Bloomberg: Global vaccinations of seafarers are going too slowly to prevent outbreaks on ships from causing more trade disruptions, endangering maritime workers, and potentially slowing economies trying to pull out of pandemic slowdowns.

• A key crop waterway in Argentina, the biggest exporter of soy meal, is the driest since 1944, driving buyers to its neighbor and rival Brazil.

• Here is a 52-week money challenge, where you put away $1 to start and continue to increase your savings each week by $1; at the end of the year, you’ve set aside $1,378 with minimal pain. (From Erin Lowry @ Bloomberg)

Oats: American farmers are now expected to harvest their smallest oats crop in records that go back to 1866.

HGX: regression to the mean ?

Latest Dow Theory Prediction:

Should the DJI close below 33,165 "and" the DJT close below 14,413  our Dow Theory interpretation will be bearish.

 

Quick Overview is up to date.

 

Notes today:

• Finance ministers of the Group of 20 major economies meeting in Italy have failed to agree on a climate pledge to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Meanwhile: Temperatures in Death Valley, California, reached a beyond belief 130 degrees Fahrenheit (54.4 Celsius) on Friday.

• China cut is reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% releasing 1 Trillion Yuan in liquidity to boost its economy. This is the first time since the height of the pandemic in 2020.

• A British regulator said on Friday that banks clearing gold trades in London could apply for an exemption from tighter capital rules due in January 2022, removing what some said was a threat to the functioning of the market.

• Concern is rising about the fast-spreading delta variant of the virus. The Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Gamma variants have already made the VOC list.  Lambda may be next ..

• President Joe Biden on Friday signed an executive order that the White House bills as an effort to target anticompetitive practices in tech, health care and other parts of the economy while boosting workers' wages and consumer protections.

• The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.9 percent on July 9, up from 7.8 percent on July 2. After this week’s releases from the Institute for Supply Management and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.7 percent to 5.1 percent.

• All three major US averages notched record closes on Friday,

Some say the world will end in fire,

Some say in ice.

From what I’ve tasted of desire

I hold with those who favor fire.

But if it had to perish twice,

I think I know enough of hate

To say that for destruction ice

Is also great

And would suffice.

-- Robert Frost 

 Wow, used car prices dropping 😏

 

Quick Overview is up to date

BS looks to be increasing exponentially - in lots of places!

Bloomberg: Crypto Scammers Rip Off Billions as Pump-and-Dump Schemes Go Digital

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 Voting Rights

Bloomberg: Prices paid to suppliers rose to its highest level since 1979.

FT: China is banking that the development of the necessary financial infrastructure, the country’s world-beating mobile payments systems and a successful launch of the digital version of the renminbi will make it easier to use and promote the currency beyond China’s borders.

 Climate disaster! Take a look.

British Columbia as hot as Death Valley!

 

Later

Evidently, we're (me 0) worth $16-per-month to Facebook (AKA the plague on humanity), double 'our' value of 2017.

And the HUI (Gold Bug Index) is struggling..

 Wondering if the FXI (China ETF) is working on a double top?

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Later

 Notes Today:

• Three FDA advisory panel members have quit in protest over the approval of Biogen’s Alzheimer drug, with one saying it was “probably the worst drug approval decision in recent U.S. history.” (Monthly chart)

• Economist: More evidence is emerging of India’s true death toll from covid-19. The official number of covid-19 fatalities is currently just over 355,000 but various analyses of excess mortality from different parts of India suggest a true toll of between 1.8m and 2.4m since the start of the pandemic.

• Drewry’s composite World Container index increased 4.1% or $263 to $6,726.87 per 40ft container.
  
  
  

• China's Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is also moving right along.

• 

• Bloomberg: This week brought some more news that no one thought would be possible during a pandemic, which is that U.S. household net worth ballooned by $25.6 trillion in the 12 months ended March 31, bringing the total to $136.9 trillion. To put the rise in perspective, consider that the average annual increase in the 10 years through 2019 was a measly $5.35 trillion.

• Reuters: Switzerland could become the first European country to ban artificial pesticides in a June 13 referendum which backers of the initiative hope will trigger similar prohibitions elsewhere.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today: 

• Single-family housing in the U.S. has been exuberant, but it’s vulnerable and the bubble is starting to leak. 

• FT: Free movement has now come to an end for those of us from the UK. (Brexit consequences) 

• In May, the CPI rose 0.6 % (seasonally adjusted), rising 5.0 % over the last 12 months (not seasonally adjusted). The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.7 % in May (SA); up 3.8 % over the year (NSA). 

• 
  254 mass shootings in the US so far this year. 

• Biogen’s decision to price its Alzheimer’s treatment (results uncertain) at $56,000-a-year has reignited the debate over the cost of drugs. 

• A new Nevada law will outlaw about 40% of the grass in the Las Vegas area in an effort to conserve water amid a drought that is drying up the region’s primary water source.

 Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today: 

• Amazon last year, for tax year 2019, they paid 1.2% on 13 billion in U.S. profits, ( a 3 year high) while the average American paid 14%.

Robert Reich: Call me a radical lefty, but if Amazon's market capitalization exceeds Australia’s GDP, it's probably time for the company to pay more in taxes. 

• The G7 group have signed a deal to tackle tax abuses by some of the world’s biggest multinationals and establish a minimum (15%) global corporation tax for the first time. 

• Facebook (AKA the plague on humanity) has supposedly banned Trump for 2 years. 

• Putin REFUSES to rule out hijacking passenger flight from London and forcing it to land in Moscow. 

• A San Diego Federal Judge appointed by Bush overturned a California ban on assault weapons and compares AR-15’s to Swiss Army knives.
• Lots of mass killings  by Swiss army knifes – especially in Switzerland. 

• Get a covid shot In West Virginia and you could win hunting rifles or shotguns.

• 
  
  TikTok has changed its privacy policy allowing it to collect biometric data on U.S. users, including "faceprints and voiceprints."

 

 

The Republican governor of Utah has invited residents of his state to join him in a “weekend of prayer” for rain, to combat a drought emergency. 

The drought, now entering its 22nd year, has resulted in the water levels at Lake Mead dropping from an elevation of more than 1,210 feet at the start of 2000 down to about 1,080 feet right now.