Our Dow Theory interpretation is back to bullish

QUICK OVERVIEW

• China: At the end of 2007 private dept to GDP stood at 118% - at the end of 2016 it stood at 211%.

• Trump announced duties on Canadian softwood of 7.7%.

• The IMF lowered its outlook for the US economy from 2.3% growth rate to 2.1%.

• The ISM said its index of national factory activity rose to a reading of 57.8 last month, its best performance since August 2014, from 54.9 in May.

• Germany (Reuters) - Euro zone growth is stronger than expected and this will enable the European Central Bank to slowly normalize its monetary policy and end a "crazy situation" of negative interest rates, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.

• German manufacturing growth rose to 59.6 from 59.5 in May to reach its highest level in 74 months.

• (L.A. Times) The main ingredient of the pesticide Roundup will be added to a list of chemicals that California believes are linked to cancer, and products that contain the compound will have to carry a warning label by next year.

• The city of Ahvaz in southwest Iran posted the country’s hottest temperature ever recorded Thursday afternoon “53.7°C” (128.7 degrees Fahrenheit), and may have tied the world record for the most extreme high temperature.

• "My cost to produce sugar at Sao Martinho is something close to 13.5 cents a pound," and the group was a "very efficient" producer.

• YoY Argentina’s tax revenues rose 29.8% percent in June.

• Brazil posted a trade surplus of $7.195 billion last month, the second largest on record and the biggest ever for the month of June.

• Chinas PMI rose to 50.4 in June,  above the 49.5 level forecast, and up from May's reading of 49.6, the first contraction in 11 months.

(Reuters) - Global debt levels have climbed $500 billion in the past year to a record $217 trillion, a new study shows, just as major central banks prepare to end years of super-cheap credit policies.

Global debt, as a result, now amounts to 327 percent of the world's annual economic output, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in a report late on Tuesday.

QUICK OVERVIEW

• The National Association of Realtors said US existing home sales rose 1.1% to  5.62 million units last month. The number of homes on the market rose 2.1%, but supply was down 8.4% YoY. Housing inventory has dropped for 24 straight months.

• (SD Union) San Diego based Guild Mortgage has launched a 1% down payment mortgage. (back to ZERO soon)

• U.S. current account deficit widens a bit to 2.5 percent of GDP.

• Ford announced that it would be moving the production of its Focus compact car from Michigan to China in 2019. Under pressure from Trump, Ford scrapped its plans to build a $1 billion plant in Mexico that would've produced its Focus.

• Wall Street is fretting that the U.S. auto industry is heading for a downturn..

• Business confidence in Asia rose to a three-year-high in Q2 of the year.

• German PPI -0.2% vs. -0.1% forecast

• Japans YoY 14.9% increase in exports was below the estimate for a 16.1% annual increase but was nonetheless the biggest rise since January 2015.

• Japan's government raised its overall view of the economy for the first time in six months by saying the recovery is intact.

• YoY Mexico's annual inflation rate rose to 6.3% faster than expected and the highest in more than eight years – so  Mexico raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 7.00%.

• The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is at the lowest since Dec. 2008. Sugar, Corn, Coffee etc. all down.