Quick Overview

• There is fresh speculation that China may use the impending Golden Week holidays in the region to ease the renminbi’s peg against the dollar.
  
  
• The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for April dropped to 87.7, the third straight monthly decline and the lowest level since September 2003

• The National Association of Purchasing Management's index of Chicago business activity dropped from 69.2 to 65.6 in April.

• The Labor Department announced that the employment cost index, moderated in the first quarter to a 0.7% increase, down from a 0.8% gain in the last three months of 2004.

• Consumer prices rose 0.5% in March, the largest increase in 15 years. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, however, the core rate of inflation - measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index - increased 0.3%.

• Personal income rose 0.5% in March, versus the 0.4% economists had predicted. Consumer spending, rose 0.6%, versus 0.5% expected.
  

• Canada's GDP increased 0.3% in February and 3.6% YoY.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• During the first quarter the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in two years –renewing fears of stagflation.. The economy expanded at a 3.1 % annual rate as consumers and businesses were pinched by rising energy prices. Economist had expected a growth rate of 3.6%.
  

• The U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday reported U.S. March soybean crush totaled 149.7 million bushels, above the average analyst estimate of 148.7 million bushels.

• U.S. March soy oil stocks totaled 1.790 billion pounds, versus analysts
  estimates of 1.779 billion pounds. Soy meal inventories totaled 251,744 tons versus the average analyst estimate of 316,700 short tons.
  
  
• The number of U.S. workers filing for initial unemployment benefits rose by 21,000 in the week ended April 23, reversing three straight weeks of declines, the Labor Department said Thursday
  

• Industrial production in Japan was down 0.3% in March

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 73 billion cubic feet last week to 1.416 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are up 24% from a year ago.

• The Reserve Bank of India increased its overnight rate from 5.75% to 6.00%, citing rising inflation.

• The World Trade Organization ruled against European sugar subsidies today, saying that the subsidies violate their trade rules. The decision upheld a 2004 ruling that European sugar exporters are getting more in government handouts than allowed.

• The unemployment rate in Germany dropped from 12.5% to 12.0% in April. The number of unemployed fell from 5.18 to 4.97 million.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Commerce Dept. showed a decline in durable goods orders of 2.8% last month - the biggest one-month drop in 2 1/2 years - following a 0.5% gain a month earlier that has been revised to a -0.2%, Excluding transportation, the decline was a less severe 1.0.

• The U.S. DoE said that the U.S. imported 10.9 million barrels of crude oil last week, the third largest amount ever. Crude oil supplies increased 5.5 million barrels to 324.4 million barrels. Unleaded supplies were down 300,000 barrels and heating oil supplies were up 400,000 barrels.

• The USDA report showed that 30% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted, more than was expected.

• Consumer prices in Australia were up 2.4% in the first quarter from a year ago, less of a gain than was expected .

• Overall trucking freight volumes fell 3.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis to 111.6 in March, according to an American Trucking Associations index released Wednesday.

• Asian soybean rust has been found in Georgia, with a positive identification confirmed Wednesday.
  
  
  

Greenspan and Snow are missing good bets

Since only about a quarter of a point separates the yield on the ten-year Treasury from that of the old 30-year bond (now 26 years), it makes sense for the government to issue longer-maturity bonds in order to lengthen the maturity of its debt, as should be the case when debt is growing faster than the economy.
Right now, the Treasury is like the homeowner who takes out an adjustable rate loan at a time when interest rates are rising. It's saving money now -- but it will pay the piper later.

Quick Overview

April consumer confidence was in line with economists' forecasts of 98.0, falling to a reading of 97.7. This is the third consecutive decline and is raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown.

New home sales for March surged 12.2% to a new record of 1.43 mln (consensus 1.19 mln)... reflect ongoing economic strength.

The U.S. Census Bureau is expected to report on Thursday
the U.S. March soybean crush at 148.7 million bushels. If it
does, that would rank as the second highest crush ever for March.


The Renewable Fuels Association said that the U.S. produced 245,000 barrels of ethanol per day in February, a new record high.

China's Ministry of Agriculture said that China will produce 10.0 million tons of sugar in 2004-2005, down slightly from the previous year and less than Chinas consumption.

Six economic institutes in Germany reduced their estimate of 2005 GDP growth for Germany from 1.5% to 0.7%.

The unemployment rate in Japan improved from 4.7% to 4.5% in March.
Japanese Household spending was down 1.1% for the month, and YoY consumer prices were down 0.2% in March.

French President Chirac asks for measures to control the flood of Chinese textile exports to the EU.

RATES for very large crude carriers have peaked and are unlikely to match the euphoric highs seen last year, says Helmut Sohmen, owner of World-Wide Shipping.

CHINA has announced further container terminal expansion by giving the go-ahead for a 2.5m teu facility at Shenzhen, the world’s fourth largest box port city.


If you’re worried about the recent European Union ban on imports of grain from the US you can now breathe a sigh of relief. Tests of Syngenta animal feed and grains imported into the European Union have shown the products to be free of a genetically modified (GMO) strain of maize blocked by the EU, the company said on Tuesday.
U.S. exporters send 3.5 million tonnes of corn gluten feed to Europe each year, a trade worth some 350 million euros ($449 million).

In a dramatic turn of events, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has joined debt campaigners across the globe by stating clearly that it is in fact possible to sell its vast undervalued (and idle) gold reserves to finance further debt relief for some of the world's poorest countries.
The viability of this proposal, after years of opposition, has been formally recognised by the staff of the IMF in a new paper. The IMF paper, prepared by the Fund's Department of Finance at the request of the major creditor nations last year, was discussed by the IMF Board on 30 April.

UN Nominee Bolton to Undergo Anger Management Therapy With Jack Nicholson
However, the Committee specified that the nominee must first undergo thirty days of "anger management therapy" to help him deal with his feelings.

Quick Overview

Sales of existing homes and condominiums rose by 1 percent in March to the third-highest sales pace on record while the nationwide median price jumped by the largest amount in more than 14 years, a real estate trade group reported Monday.

The average retail price of regular gasoline fell 4.46 cents between April 8 and Friday to $2.24 a gallon, according to the latest Lundberg Survey of filling stations nationwide.

The USDA said that 68% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down 1 point from the previous week.

The USDA said that 30% of the corn crop has been planted.

Brazil said that their upcoming coffee crop will total 32.5 million bags, up slightly from the previous estimate.

An index of business confidence in Germany dropped from 94.0 to 93.3 in April, the lowest reading in over a year.

U.S. Prison Population, World's Highest, Up Again
The United States has incarcerated 726 people per 100,000 of its population, seven to 10 times as many as most other democracies. The rate for England is 142 per 100,000, for France 91 and for Japan 58.

It costs around $22,000 to lock up one person for a year. The United States spends about $57 billion annually on its prison and jail system.

Website of the day: The House that Jack Built


A plane trip to London and Scotland in 2000 by beleaguered House Majority Leader Tom Delay was charged to a credit card issued to a Washington lobbyist who is the subject of a federal probe, the Washington Post reported on Sunday.

Quick Overview

Canada's annual inflation rate in March met market expectations, rising to 2.3 percent from 2.1 percent in February, reinforcing beliefs that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates in the second half of 2005.

Brazil's coffee crop will total 32.46 million 60-kilogram bags in 2005-06 (July-June), according to the latest estimate released by the National Commodities Supply Corp, on Friday. This compares to 38.7 million bags last year.

The USDA said that there were 10.87 million head of cattle on feed, up 1% from a year ago, but less than expected. March placements were down 2.8% and marketing’s were roughly the same as a year ago.

The USDA said that there were 81.3 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage, up 62% from a year ago.

The USDA said Frozen pork totaled 543.4 million pounds, up 21% from a year ago.

ED&F Man said that they still expect world demand for sugar to exceed production in the upcoming year.

The USDA said that there were 1.58 billion pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage on March 31st, down 12% from a year ago.

An index of services in Japan contracted 1% in February after posting a big 2.4% gain in January.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi apologized to China for Japan's wartime atrocities and expressed an interest in improving ties between the two countries.

GDP in the U.K. was up 0 .6% in the first quarter and up 2.8 YoY.

During week of April 16th Tonnage Volume for US railroads reached 33.3 billion ton-miles, up 4.7 percent from the same week in 2004.


Less than two hours before the close, The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. had warned China that North Korea could be preparing a nuclear-weapons test.

Earnings for Suezmax tankers in November reached a record of more than US$150,000 a day as global oil consumption grew faster than ship supply.

Quick Overview

The number of U.S. workers filing for initial unemployment benefits fell 36,000 in the week ended April 16, the third consecutive reported decline, the Labor Department said Thursday

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area rose to 25.3, a Federal Reserve report said Thursday. Orders and shipments also accelerated.

The Bank of Japan said on Thursday the economies of most of Japan's regions are in a mild recovery trend.

The Conference Board reported Thursday that its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.4 percent last month to 115.1. The decline was slightly larger than that expected.

Retail sales in the U.K. were down 0.1% in March, weaker than expected.

China's president on Thursday urged Asian and African leaders to pursue free trade agreements and open their markets to each other to overcome economic woes plaguing countries on the two continents.

China imported 2.7 million barrels of oil per day in March, up 23% from a year ago

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned on Thursday that unless lawmakers come to grips with spiraling U.S. deficits, the economy was at risk of stagnation "or worse."

Retail sales in Canada were up 1.7% in February to C$30.4 billion.

The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground natural gas supplies were up 50 billion cubic feet to 1.343 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 25%.

Quick Overview

The U.S. Consumer Price Index was up 0.6 percent last month - stronger than expected as the costs of energy clothing and airline fares all rose.

China's economy expanded 9.5 percent, faster than expected, putting fresh pressure on Beijing to rein in growth.

Argentina's economy grew a faster than expected 8.6 percent rate in February.

India's weather office on Wednesday forecast normal monsoon rains this year.

Among leading world economies, the U.S. ranks only 11th in Internet users connecting at high-speed. Compared to South Korea, Japan, even Canada, the U.S. is falling behind.

The Department of Energy said in its weekly petroleum supply report that the U.S. supply of crude oil fell last week by 1.8 million barrels to 318.9 million barrels, or 8 percent above year ago levels. Gasoline inventories declined by 1.5 million barrels to 211.6 million barrels, or 5 percent above year ago levels.
The supply of distillate fuel, which includes diesel, was flat at 104 million barrels, or roughly 1 percent above year ago levels, the agency said. Heating oil supplies were up 1.4 million barrels Gasoline demand has averaged more than 9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, roughly 1.2 percent above year ago levels.

The Federal Reserve's Beige book said that "all twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that business activity continued to expand from late February through early April." The districts of Kansas City and San Francisco reported the most positive growth while "some deterioration" in retail activity was reported in Cleveland's district.

Quick Overview

The Labor Department said Tuesday its producer price index rose 0.7% in March, and prices excluding food and energy rose just 0.1%.

Housing starts fell 17.6% in March, the biggest drop in 14 years, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. YoY housing starts are up 5.5%.

The average national price of retail diesel fuel dropped 5.7 cents to $2.259 a gallon, the Department of Energy said Monday. Gasoline prices also tumbled from four weeks of records, dropping 4.3 cents to $2.237 a gallon, DOE said. Today however June unleaded gasoline was up 7.07 cents to $1.5807 with reports of refinery problems in Texas, Louisiana, and Kansas.

Chinese soybean futures settled higher on forecasts for smaller soy acreage in that country's largest soy-producing province, Soybean acreage in China's Heilongjiang province was expected to drop 3.1% this year, according to a local media report Monday.

General Motors reported a first quarter loss of $1.1 billion, the worst performance in 13 years and down from its $1.2 billion profit a year ago.

YoY Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 1.9%, the highest in almost seven years.

Canada's wholesale sales were up 1.1% in February and the composite index of leading indicators was up 0.2% in March

Unbelievable Sloppiness
The action is the only possible way of dealing with an unbelievable sloppiness -- the mixing of different genetically modified corn families. The so-called Bt10 corn from the US, with its resistance against the antibiotic Ampicillin is neither permitted in the US nor in Europe. The EU has not banned all US corn imports. It is merely demanding proof that the imported corn products do not include any Bt10.

Quick Overview

OPEC's President said that they will increase production by 500,000 barrels per day, starting on May 1st.

June gold was helped by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow saying he does not favor the IMF plan of selling gold to provide debt relief to less developed countries.

New vehicle sales in Canada jumped up 12.8% in February to 142,658 vehicles.

Germany's central bank said that the economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter of 2005.

The Nikkei 225 fell over 3% to 10,938, the lowest close in four months, hurt by a slowing U.S. economy and dispute with China.

No windfall for Midwest's corn-based fuel
These days, however, ethanol-makers are getting creamed. Even as oil prices hover around $50 a barrel, ethanol has plunged by at least one-fourth since January. For the first time in memory, a gallon of ethanol at wholesale is going for a dollar less than a gallon of gas at the pump.

Honda Motor Co. expects to set an export record this year in the soybeans it returns to Japan in containers that arrived in the U.S. filled with spare parts.

In the shadow of its Marysville auto plant, the company processes 550 bushels of soybeans each hour that end up as tofu and soy sauce. The automaker expects to sell a record 1 million bushels this year and is hunting new markets in Australia. The company says potential customers in Europe and Thailand have expressed interest.

Honda began shipping soybeans in 1986

"as a way to reuse cargo containers that were returning to Japan empty".

The crop was plentiful in Ohio, there was a market for them in Japan, and the shipments were a way for the automaker to invest in a state it has operated in since 1983.

Quick Overview

The New York Federal Reserve's Empire Manufacturing index fell from 20.18 to 3.12 in April, the lowest in two years.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 88.7 in mid-April from 92.6 in March.

U.S. industrial production was up 0.3% in March.

Europe's cocoa bean grind totaled 282,682 tons in the first quarter of 2005, up 0.8% from a year ago. In the U.S. the cocoa grind totaled 101,913 tons, down 0.7% from a year ago.

The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks increased over 305,000 bags in March to end the month at 5.696 million bags, more than expected.

Canada's manufacturing shipments were down 0.5% in February.


San Diego America’s finest city.
Here's how abusive it is: some city officials are getting lump sums under this program of more than $1 million, in addition to $150,000 or more annual retirement benefits. The city spends $16 million a year just paying interest on the $200 million now deposited in this program. But the city spends a mere $800,000 a year repairing potholes.....But the weather is nice!

Scientists say evidence mounting that chemical in plastic is dangerous In the new report, to be published online tomorrow in Environmental Health Perspectives, scientists Frederick vom Saal and Claude Hughes say that, as of December, 115 studies have been published examining low doses of the chemical, and 94 found harmful effects.



US calls for immediate flexibility on renminbi
The US administration is calling for China to move immediately to introduce a flexible currency, a marked shift in tactics after several years of patient diplomacy aimed at nudging China towards allowing the renminbi to float.

The worlds biggest debtor nation telling another nation how to run THEIR economy.

Illegal GM maize fear sparks EU ban on US animal feeds
But Christoph Then, a Greenpeace genetic engineering expert, said lax controls in the US and elsewhere meant that Europe remained exposed to high-risk imports of illegal GMOs in wheat, rice, soya beans and rape seed as well as maize. The US condemned the ban, insisting there were no hazards to health, safety or the environment from Bt10.

Quick Overview

The number of U.S. workers filing for initial unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 in the week ended April 9, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Business inventories rose 0.5% in February, the Commerce Department reported Thursday

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said that old-crop soybean export sales last week hit a marketing-year low of 128,800 metric tons with China absent from the list of buyers. New-crop sales were 143,600 tons, total soybean sales came to 272,400 tons, which was under pre-report estimates ranging from 350,000 to 550,000 tons.

Informa Economics, a private analytical firm, is said to estimate U.S. cornproduction at 10.721 billion bushels. This compares to USDA's April production
estimate of 11.807 billion.
Export sales from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for corn were 915,600
metric tons for 2004-05. This is above trade estimates of 650,000 to 850,000
metric tons.


Wheat Export sales for the week ended April 7 were a net 389,400 metric tons for the 2004-05 crop year, while 29,000 tons of 2005-06 wheat were sold, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Thursday.
The sales generally met pre-report trade expectations for around
300,000-500,000 tons of export sales.

The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground natural gas supplies were up 44 billion cubic feet last week to 1.293 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies up 23%.

Quick Overview

Crude oil prices continued to fall Wednesday, dropping below $51 a barrel following a Department of Energy report showing strong inventories for both oil and gasoline.
The DOE said that:
Crude oil supplies increased 3.6 million barrels last week to 320.7 million barrels. Unleaded supplies improved by 800,000 barrels, and heating oil supplies were up 600,000 barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserves are now at 688.8 million barrels, close to the 700 million barrel target.


March retail sales rose 0.3%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, less than forecasters had predicted.


U.S. economic growth will average 3.6% this year, the fastest among the world's leading industrialized nations, according to a new International Monetary Fund report.
The IMF said that they expect real economic growth in 2005 and 2006 for:
The United States to be 3.6% for both years.
Canada to be 2.8% and 3.0%.
The United Kingdom to be 2.6% for both years.
The Euro area to be 1.6% and 2.3%.
Japan to be .8% and 1.9%.


The U.K.'s unemployment rate for the three months to February was 4.8%, up .1 from the previous three months.


The Japanese government said that their economy is improving at a restrained pace. YoY Producer prices were up 1.4% in March.


Overall trucking freight volumes fell 2.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis to 115.5 in February, according to an updated American Trucking Associations index released Tuesday.

Pandemic-causing 'Asian flu' accidentally releasedThe flu testing kits were sent to some 3700 labs between October 2004 and February 2005 by the College of American Pathologists (CAP), a professional body which helps pathology laboratories improve their accuracy, by sending them unidentified samples of various germs to identify.
The CAP kits - prepared by private contractor Meridian Bioscience in Cincinnati, US -were to contain a particular strain of influenza A - the viral family that causes most flu worldwide. But instead of choosing a strain from the hundreds of recently circulating influenza A viruses, the firm chose the 1957 pandemic strain.

We’ve spent $40 billion on "Homeland Security" in 2004 and will spend some $50 billion in 2005, and now we have a lab mailing out a deadly flu virus to thousands of unsuspecting labs - it boggles the mind.
Meridian Bioscience Backs 2005 Outlook

"While a few H2N2 laboratory acquired infections have been documented in the past, the likelihood of laboratory-acquired influenza infection is considered low when proper biosafety precautions are followed," Meridian said in a statement. "The risk for the general population is also considered low." The WHO also has said the risk of an outbreak is slight.



Ex-AIG Chief Gave Wife $2B in Shares
Greenberg resigned as president and CEO of the New York-based insurer on March 14, three days after he had transferred 41.4 million shares — worth $2.2 billion at Tuesday's closing share price of $53.20 — to his wife, Corinne P. Greenberg.

Quick Overview

Stock-index futures staged a bullish reversal Tuesday, thanks to tamer-than-expected minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policymaking session.

Gold output falls to 73-year low www.Iafrica.com reported today that South Africa's 2004 gold production was the lowest since 1931.


The International Energy Agency reduced its estimate of 2005 world oil demand by 50,000 barrels to 84.3 million barrels per day.


AgRural said it forecasts the Brazilian soybean crop at 51.3 million
metric tons, down from its previous estimate of 52.3 million tons, due to
excessive rain in the main soybean-producing state of Mato Grosso. The U.S.
Department of Agriculture has the crop currently figured at 54 million tons.

The U.S. trade deficit grew more than expected in February to a record $61.0 billion, as the U.S. economy sucked in record imports and exports remained high but showed little new growth, the government said on Tuesday. The trade deficit with China actually narrowed in February to $13.9 billion from $15.3 billion in January.

Canada's exports increased 1.4% in February to C$36.5 billion while imports were down .2% to C$31.7 billion. The result was a trade surplus of C$4.8 billion.

According to International Monetary Fund the world economy will expand 4.3 percent this year as stronger-than-expected growth in the United States, China and elsewhere balances weakness in Europe and Japan.

USDA Secretary Johanns said that he wants the beef trade with Japan to resume by July. That’s nice, but what does Japan think?


Thirty-three U.S. governors are seeking to expand federal mandates for the use of ethanol as a fuel additive, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

Chinese officials are visiting Brazil this week in search of knowledge on how to introduce ethanol as an additive into gasoline fuel.


Retail sales in the U.K. were up 1.8% YoY .

The United States should deploy widespread wired and wireless
gigabit networks as a national priority, according to a white paper
from the IEEE-USA
Committee on Communications and Information
Policy (CCIP). "Providing Ubiquitous Gigabit Networks in the United
States," issued 14 March, says that our nation must act promptly to
ensure that a new...


Hang in there! Time may indeed be on your side. If you can just last another quarter century. By then, people will start lives that could last 1,000 years or more..


The USDA attaché increased the estimate of China's sugar imports from 1.2 million to 1.4 million metric tons. The estimate of sugarcane and beet acreage in China was increased by 6% for the upcoming year.


For 16 years, the FDA resisted pressure to approve aspartame due to safety studies linking the artificial sweetener to numerous adverse reactions, including the development of brain tumors in animal studies. In 1977, FDA investigator Jerome Bressler released a report describing how, in clinical studies submitted to the FDA, Searle removed aspartame-induced brain tumors that developed in lab rats and placed them back into the study. If the rats died, Bressler reported, Searle would resurrect them on paper.

Quick Overview

The average retail price of regular gasoline rose 19 cents in the past three weeks to a record $2.29 a gallon as of April 8, according to the latest Lundberg Survey of filling stations nationwide.

The CEO of AngloGold is predicting a range of $400 to $500 per ounce for gold in the "foreseeable future."

OPEC's President said that they will soon increase oil production by 500,000 barrels per day to prepare for increased world demand in the third quarter.

China's trade surplus rose to $5.73 billion in March up from $4.6 billion in February. YoY exports rose 32.8 percent in March , while imports grew 18.6 percent.

U.S. slips lower in coding contest A number of developments in recent years suggest the world's tech leadership could shift from Silicon Valley and other U.S. locales to Asian nations such as China, Korea and India.

Quick Overview

We're back in operation!!


China should allow the free market to set the value of its yuan currency, and end its peg to the dollar, Treasury Secretary John Snow said during a congressional hearing Thursday. Beijing responded that US pressure on it to revalue the yuan and curb a surge of textile exports was unfair and that the United States should solve its own problems.

U.S. consumer credit rose 3.1%, or $5.5 billion in February, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. The increase in consumer credit in January, meanwhile, was revised up slightly to $11.7 billion, the Fed said. Credit card debt increased 6.1% in February, while nonrevolving credit, such as auto loans, increased 1.3%. The data do not include home mortgages.

The Bank of England kept interest rates at 4.75 percent for the eighth month running.

Shipping industry faces shortages.
The problem now is that ship-owners will have to wait until 2008 to get any delivered with the South Korean shipyards already full with orders,"

The ski trip was a big success except it resulted in a broken shoulder. So all you fans of InvestmentTools are asked to exercise patience. It won't be long before we will be fully operational again.

We're off skiing - back Monday 

Quick Overview

The dollar may get another short-lived respite but it is heading inexorably down. The question is how much it takes with it
So far, the foreigners—mainly Asians plus a few outliers, including Russia and Brazil—have obliged, permitting America to scoop up 75% of the world's surplus savings. Together, Asian central banks have accumulated about $2.5 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, up almost a quarter in little more than a year, most of it in dollars; Japan and China alone have reserves of nearly $1.5 trillion between them.....There are repeated suggestions that regional payments systems should be set up, such as the gold dinar standard proposed for the Islamic world in 2002 by Malaysia’s prime minister.

The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
Crude supplies were up 2.6 million barrels last week to 305.2 million barrels.
Unleaded supplies were down 2.9 million barrels
Heating oil supplies were down 2.4 million barrels.

OPEC agreed to increase the official quota from 27.0 to 27.5 million barrels per day. Another 500,000 barrels of production may be authorized later - if OPEC's president sees the need for it.

General Motors expects to show a loss in the first quarter, hurt by weaker than expected sales in North America.

Canadian cattlemen have taken their complaints to NAFTA, hoping to get the U.S. to open its border.


U.S. Trade Deficit Hits All-Time High of $665.9 Billion in 2004, Commerce Dept. Reports
..private economists are worried that the huge level of resources being transferred into the hands of foreigners will eventually result in lower U.S. living standards.

China's slowdown continues to challenge normal definitions. Fixed asset investment surged 24.5 per cent in the first two months of the year - 8.5 percentage points higher than Beijing's 2005 target - while industrial production hit a nine month high. But Washington's hopes that Beijing will curb growth through currency appreciation, thereby reducing the US trade deficit, look more misplaced than ever.

U.S. industrial production was up 0.3% in February.

U.S. housing starts were at an annual rate of 2.195 million in February, up .5% from January's pace. 2005 housing starts are up 15% from a year ago.

Quick Overview

U.S. economic growth will slow and then likely stop by the end of President George W. Bush's second term in office as interest rate hikes hit hard, according to researchers at the .University of California Los Angeles



U.S. retail sales were up 0.5% in February. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.4%. January's sales were revised from a 0.3% loss to a 0.3% gain.

The U.S. Treasury's international capital flows data showed the United States attracted net capital inflows of $91.5 billion in January, from a revised $60.7 billion in December.


The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were up 229,016 bags in February to 5.39 million bags. YoY this is down 7.5%.

Manufacturing shipments in Canada were up 3.0% in January to C$51.5 billion.

YoY China’s industrial production increased 17% in the first two months of 2005.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan told the Senate Special Committee on Aging that the federal budget deficit is a threat to the economy and that Social Security benefits will need to be cut to accommodate the growing numbers of retirees.

Quick Overview

BBC News reported that Vietnam is suffering its worst drought in 28 years and the coffee crop is being threatened.

Reuters is quoting Cuba's Sugar Minister as saying that the current drought that damaged last year's sugar crop is also ruining the upcoming crop.

Japan's GDP was revised upward from -0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2004, to +0.1%, stronger than expected. For all of 2004, GDP was up 2.7%.

Chart to Ponder 

Quick Overview

The Economic Cycle Research Institute
an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index rose to 135.2 in the week ended March 4 compared with 134.9 in the previous week.

Greenspan Says Worried on Budget
"Our fiscal prospects are, in my judgment, a significant obstacle to long-term stability because the budget deficit is not readily subject to correction by market forces that stabilize other imbalances," he said.

Trade Deficit at 2nd Highest Ever
The Commerce Department reported Friday that the January trade gap was 4.5 percent higher than December's $55.7 billion deficit and was just below the all-time high monthly deficit of $59.4 billion, recorded in November. (But it's not our fault. It's the fault of those foreigners that save.) US's Snow-Blame slow growth abroad for trade gap


Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association said that the Soybean crop is only 53.9 million tons. Southern Brazil is still dry with chances for light showers coming on Sunday.

Dow Jones Newswires reported that Colombia expects to have another 11.5 million (60-kg) bag coffee crop in 2005-2006.

ED&F Man has global sugar stocks falling by 5 million tons in 2004-2005. About the same as the USDA's estimate of a 4.8 million ton drop in ending stocks.



Fiber market set for real growth, says Corning scientist .. every sector of fiber telecom grew in 2004, including metro, premises, and submarine/long-haul. Although long-haul and ultra-long haul suffered three successive years of decline, that market grew 15 percent in 2004, albeit from a sharply-reduced base..."There is no first, second, or third world any more, because everyone is feeling the pressure of joining the fast world."

Canada's exports fell 1.6% in January to C$35.9 billion - imports increased 1.9% to C$31.9 billion. And Canada's unemployment rate in February was unchanged at 7.0% with a net gain of 27,000 new jobs.

The International Energy Agency increased their estimate of world oil demand to 84.3 million barrels per day in 2005. Less than the U.S. Department of Energy's 84.7 million barrel per day estimate.

Moore says nanoelectronics face tough challenges

Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted it won't be easy to
replace silicon. "Any material made of atoms has a fundamental limit,"
Moore said. The solution? Make the chips bigger. Carbon nanotubes, he
added,...

Quick Overview

The amount of new debt taken on by Americans rose 8.6 percent, or $1.92 trillion, in 2004, the fastest growth since 1988, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday.

The U.S. federal government had a $113.94 billion deficit for the month of February.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday the U.S. current account gap was being fueled by factors outside the United States


YoY federal government spending for the month was up $26 billion

Inventories of U.S. wholesalers increased 1.1percent in January, led by stockpiling of farm products, groceries, clothing and cars, the Commerce Department said Thursday

U.S. jobless claims were up 17,000 last week to 327,000

China import growth falls amid cooling measures
China's annual import growth slowed to 8.3 percent in the first two months of 2005

The USDA 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 2.010 to 2.055 billion bushels.
Soybeans were reduced from 440 to 410 million bushels.
Wheat was reduced from 558 to 553 million bushels.
Cotton was reduced from 7.30 to 7.10 million bushels.
Sugar was reduced from 1.548 to 1.473 million tons.

The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 117 to 122 million tons.
Soybeans were reduced from 61 to 56 million tons.
Wheat was increased from 145 to 147 million tons.
Cotton was increased from 47 to 48 million tons.

The USDA's estimate of this spring's soybean crop in Brazil was reduced from 63.0 to 59.0 million tons (2.17 b.bu.), due to dry weather. The soybean estimate for Argentina remained the same, at 39.0 million tons (1.43 b.bu.)

The USDA's estimate of the 2004-2005 Florida orange crop was reduced from 162 to 153 million boxes. The estimated juice yield remains at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas fell 139 billion cubic feet last week to 1.474 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 29%.

Machinery orders in Japan were down 2.2% in January. Orders fell unexpectedly in January as demand for semiconductors and computers weakened.

Australia's unemployment rate in February remained at 5.1%, the lowest in 28 years.

Brazilian industrial output fell 0.5 percent in January from December.
The decline was expected after a strong 2004, when Brazil's economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade

New Zealands central bank increased its interest rate by a quarter-percent to 6.75%.

Why the Dollar is Falling

What about the deals that are being made between Latin American countries and China with the perspective of forming an economic symbiosis between China's need for food and oil, and this region's abundance of natural resources?..
..the fraternization between the leaders of France, Germany and Russia. This entente covers the Euro-Asian continent, the geo-strategic heart of the world. It represents an alliance that is ready and capable of challenging U.S. influence in almost any aspect. What do these constellations imply for the role of the U.S. dollar?

Jeremy Siegel's Latest Book Lays out the Future for Investors

Siegel found that historically the biggest factor in productivity growth has been advances in communication -- writing, the printing press, telegraph and telephone, and the Internet.

From 1925 through the end of 2003, tobacco company Philip Morris, now called Altria Group, delivered a 17% average annual return, assuming all dividends were reinvested in the company's shares.

A $4,000 investment in the top four would have grown to $6.29 million, versus $1.11 million for a similar investment in the stock market as a whole.

Today

S&P reports that :"DIVIDENDS SURGE" Last month's dividend increase total was the highest for a February since 1981. The full year could be the best since 1998.
The Federal reserves Beige Book shows increasing economic activity in all twelve U.S. districts.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said that its preliminary data shows 2004 world copper consumption exceeding production by 706,000 tons, up from 2003's production deficit of 386,000 tons. For all of 2004, world refined production was up 3.6% while consumption was up 5.5%. The biggest gains in demand came from the U.S., Japan, and China..

The DoE said that:
Crude supplies increased 3.2 million barrels last week to 302.6 million barrels.
Unleaded supplies were down 200,000 barrels
Heating oil supplies were down 800,000 barrels.
(The problem appears to be with the refineries not being able to keep up with demand, and not a shortage of crude).

Manufacturing in the U.K. increased 0.2% in January, stronger than expected.

Industrial production in Germany increased 3.1% in January, more than expected.

Japan's index of leading indicators increased from 41.7 to 55.0 in January, the first sign of expansion in five months.

There is renewed talk that the People's Bank of China has been considering pegging their currency to a wider basket of currencies - not just the dollar.


How Much Can Your Mind Keep Track Of?
People cannot process more than four variables at a time,
research shows... The number of individual variables we can mentally handle while trying to solve a problem (like baking a lemon meringue pie) is relatively small: Four variables are difficult; five are nearly impossible.

Researchers from Stanford University have constructed an extremely small transistor from a pair of single-walled carbon nanotubes and organic molecules.
The tiny transistor could eventually be used in ultra-low-power electronics. Transistors made from organic molecules are currently slower than today's transistors made from silicon, but are cheap and easy to work with.

Data Broker Says 32,000 Personal Records of U.S. Citizens Were Possibly Compromised
....The company played down the impact of the security breach on its profits, reaffirming its target of higher earnings and at least 5 percent growth in revenues excluding acquisitions. ...
Reed Elsevier specializes in the education, legal and science sectors, publishing more than 10,000 journals, books and compact discs, as well as almost 3,000 Web sites and portals. It also organizes 430 trade exhibitions.
(See above ”how much can you keep track of” -- But they surely have their priorities straight – EARNINGS are not impacted!!)

Plus Ça Change . . .
So, boys and girls, you see that there's no trouble at all to manufacturing a war in the modern United States. The same blueprint serves for all occasions; the U.S. regime need only employ the raw materials at hand; and the people fall for the same tricks every time – or, at least, by the time they wake up to what has been done, it's too late.

Curbing terror or menacing freedom?
However, harsh anti-terror laws are no guarantee that terrorism will stop. Worse still, they risk doing more harm than good.

(19 terrorists in 6 weeks have been able to command 300 million North Americans to do away with the entirety of their civil liberties that took 700 years to advance from the Magna Carta onward. The terrorists have already won the political and ideological war with one terrorist act. It is mindboggling that we are that weak as a society: Rocco Galati)

Today

U.S. consumers' confidence fell to a nine-month low in March

"What is most worrisome is that the economic outlook component sank below 50 this month. The last time it did that was back in March of 2003, on the eve of the Iraq war,"
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The national average price of on-highway diesel jumped 5.0 cents to $2.168 per gallon, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported.

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Canada's housing starts were at an annual rate of 214,900 in February, up 5.3% from January's pace.
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State Department Report Says China (China?) Still Committing Numerous Rights Abuses and many who openly expressed dissenting political views were harassed, detained or imprisoned, "particularly in a campaign late in the year against writers, religious activists, dissidents, and petitioners to the Central Government."


Commodity Prices Climb to 24-Year High on Global Demand Growth

Commodity prices surged to a 24-year high, led by gains in copper and crude oil, on concern that global economic growth is eroding inventories of raw materials faster than supplies can be replenished.

Laughing helps arteries and boosts blood flow

The results suggest that laughter could help keep the lining of the arteries - the endothelium - healthy and thus reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. "At the very least, laughter offsets the impact of mental stress, which is harmful to the endothelium,"

What Iraq's checkpoints are like

He turned to me, his face twisted with the anguish of making me understand: "But Mrs. Annia," he said, "if you go slow, they notice you!"

We have linked to Sentix sentiment data, you may want to check it out here.

House sales, prices keep up frantic pace

How much longer can this madness continue?
As Herbert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Richard Nixon was fond of saying, “Things that can’t go on forever, don’t.”

China Stock Market Misses Out on Boom

Millions of Chinese have learned hard lessons about the risks of playing the market. China's national stock index sank 15% last year, making it the worst performer of the world's major markets. The index is down more than 40% from its peak in 2001.

Today

Brazil's 2004-05 soybean crop (October-September) will total 57.0 million metric tons, the Agriculture Ministry said Monday. The latest forecast was down from on the 61.4 million tons predicted in December due to a prolonged drought in southern states

Building permits in Canada totaled C$4.5 billion in January, down 11% from December, but up 9% YoY.

Capital spending in Japan was up 3.5% in the fourth quarter, less than expected.

Pending home sales down 2.1% in Jan.
In a new indicator designed to provide faster and more accurate information on emerging trends in the housing market, the pending sales of previously owned homes fell in January, the National Association of Realtors said Monday

OPEC Chief Concerned About Oil Prices

Seeking to cool market sentiment, the head of OPEC on Sunday said the organization is "concerned" about stubbornly high prices that defy what he described as a well-supplied market and adequate crude stocks worldwide.
The statement by Sheik Ahmad Fahad Al Ahmad Al Sabah, OPEC's president and secretary general, was issued as a clear attempt to dampen speculative buying that last weak briefly drove prices above $55 a barrel. Prices settled by week's end to above $53.

Australia's gold output falls to 9-year low

Australia's gold output sank to a nine-year low in 2004 following exceptionally wet weather in Western Australia early in the year and a large number of plant closures.
Gold production for the year was down to 261 tonnes, 6.5 per cent less than 2003, Melbourne consulting group Surbiton Associates said.

Chart of The Week: As an old Conti colleague in the 70th would say "if it goes up any straighter it'll have to fall over backwards".
 

Chinese chase Canadian oil

CHINA’S state oil companies are creating a political furore in the Canadian province of Alberta as they seek to buy their way into the Athabasca oil sands, the world’s largest petroleum resource.
The prospect of Chinese oil companies diverting the bitumen reserves to refineries in the People’s Republic is creating anxiety in Washington and concern in the Alberta government. The high price of crude oil has stimulated billions of dollars of new investment in Alberta’s tar sands which contain more than 1 trillion barrels of oil.

With the Dow Industrials, Transports, Utilities, S&P 500, 600, etc all in new high ground this bull may be appropriate.. 

EAST ASIA RISING

Without question, the re-awakening of China is the biggest economic event of our lifetimes. Chinese growth is draining resources and capital and affecting the economies of every region of the world. Our real competitive battle with China is not over jobs--it is over capital. And lets not overlook India.

China predicts 120 million Net users by year-end

China's Internet user base is expected to grow 28 percent this year to 120 million, according to the official Xinhua news agency, which cited an official with China's Ministry of Information Industry, or MII. The gains would represent an increase over 2004, when the number of Internet users grew 16 percent to 94 million.

Today

Orders placed with factories rose 0.2% in January, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
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The U.S. Treasury market would be able to adjust if foreign investors decided to diversify away from U.S. government debt, the president of a regional Federal Reserve Bank said on Friday. Adjust HOW? Perhaps the adjustment would lower the dollars value by 50%?

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U.S. employers created 262,000 jobs last month, the biggest gain in four months..
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U.S. wholesale prices for heavy motor trucks jumped 1.6% in January, marking their largest monthly increase in more than five years, as equipment makers continued to pass along higher costs for raw materials, including steel, aluminum, wood and rubber.
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The University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence dropped from 95.5 to 94.1 in February.
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Conditions in southern Brazil remain hot and dry. Dow Jones Newswires quoted Brazilian analysts as saying that the soybean crop would only total 53 million tons (1.95 b. bu) The USDA estimated 63 million ton (2.31 b. bu)
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The Florida Citrus Processors said that there were 141.9 million gallons of frozen orange juice concentrate in inventory on February 26th, down 7% from a year ago.
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House prices in the U.K. were down 0.5% in February.
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Manufacturing orders in Germany were down 3.4% in January.
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The unemployment rate in the Euro-zone remained at 8.8% in January.
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The EU-25 unemployment rate dropped from 8.9% to 8.8%.