Notes today

• Bloomberg: A record-sized bullish bet on interest-rate futures that was made hours before Wednesday’s US inflation report blew up in spectacular fashion after a stronger-than-expected reading triggered a market rout. 

• Costco: A Wells Fargo analyst recently estimated that that the company could be selling $200 million of gold and silver each month.
• Costco: 1 once gold bars are selling out within a few hours.

• E-commerce same-store sales once again grew by double-digits, up 28.3% YoY

• Bloomberg:  The average premium for US homeowners’ insurance is expected to hit $2,522 this year — and $11,759 in Florida.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Cartoon of the day:

Southwest Airlines “Boeing” 737-800 flight headed to Houston had to make emergency landing at the Denver International Airport after the engine cover seemingly 'tore away' during takeoff.

Time for a nap.

Scientists are finding that anti-obesity medicines can also help treat dozens of other diseases

Notes today

•  “A class of chemicals commonly used in plastic food containers and cosmetic products may have caused about 10 percent of the United States’ preterm births in 2018.” 

• A global report from air monitoring firm IQAir, published last week, found that a stunning 83 of the 100 worst polluted cities in the world are in India, with Delhi named as the most polluted capital city having averaged a PM2.5 of 102.1 µg/m3 in 2023.

• Copper discoveries 

 “It's a little embarrassing that after 45 years of research & study, the best advice I can give people is to be a little kinder to each other.” - Aldous Huxley 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today

• Japan top currency diplomat Kanda says yen weakness doesn't reflect fundamentals.

• China blocks use of Intel and AMD chips in government computers, FT reports. 

• Finland retains its position as the world's "happiest country" for the seventh year, with the US falling outside the top 20 for the first time. 

• Economist: American antitrust authorities have begun their broadest suit yet against Apple, alleging that the firm has abused its position in the smartphone market to stifle competition and innovation. 

• The richest 1% of India's population now own 40% of the country’s wealth, a study found. 

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Notes today: 

• Federal Reserve policymakers are largely sticking to their path of interest-rate cuts — for now — after hitting a bump on the road to low and steady inflation. 
• All time highs: Dow, S&P, Nasdaq..

• Former UK defence minister Ben Wallace has said British troops in Ukraine cannot be ruled out @BWallaceMP

• 
  
  Chuck Grassley, age 91, is urging the GOP to vote against term limits. 

 

“It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets.” - Voltaire

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

 

Notes today:

• Japan Ends the World’s Last Negative Rates Regime..

• China reported stronger industrial activity than expected, with production up by 7% YoY in January and February - fastest rate in two years. 

• Bloomberg: The car’s most extraordinary feature, though, is its $9,698 price tag. That undercuts the average price of an American EV by more than $50,000 and is only a little more than a high-end Vespa scooter. 

• 20 years from now the only people that will remember that you worked late are your kids. 

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Checking out rocks.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Bearish Yen Bets 

Notes today:

• Fed Chair Powell: "We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. When we do get that confidence — & we’re not far from it — it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction” ..  

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he expects to see some banks fail due to their exposure to the commercial real estate sector.

• German industrial production rose in January for the first time in nine months, though its protracted weakness has probably already dragged the economy into a recession.

• El Niño Scorches Southern Africa With Driest February on Record

• United Airlines Boeing 777 bound for Japan loses a tire as it takes off from San Francisco - crushing cars below.
  

• It’s official – Sweden is now the 32nd member of NATO.

• 
  
  Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom : Who secures the port? Who distributes the aid within Gaza? And if you answer those questions and this works at scale, America winds up absolving Israel of its own responsibility to provide aid to civilians in areas it controls.

• António Guterres @antonioguterres  :  I was deeply moved by the horrifying testimonies I heard of family members of victims of the war in Gaza today. Some lost over a hundred relatives.
• This horror must stop now.   A humanitarian ceasefire cannot wait.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

US Corn Area in Drought

 US Soybean Area in Drought.

Silver production from Mexico and Peru, the world's two largest producers, is at its lowest point in 14 years.

12 Month YoY Performance

NVIDIA	238.47%
Meta Platforms	184.07%
Eli Lilly	139.37%
Builders FirstSource	135.77%
Uber Tech	134.13%
AMD	126.05%
Broadcom	124.38%
Arista Networks	97.49%
PulteGroup	97.31%
Lam Research	94.00%

 

Rich Nation Aging Crunch

Notes today:

Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class A

 $535           in 1982

$610,086     in 2024

 

• $1 in 1982 has the same purchasing power as $3.12 in 2024. Over the 42 years this is a change of $2.12. The average inflation rate of the dollar between 1982 and 2024 was 0.15% per year.
• Berkshire  Shareholder Letters

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

Quick Overview is up to date

Can AI Unlock the Secrets of the Ancient World?

Almost 2,000 years ago, a volcano preserved Herculaneum’s vast library of scrolls but left them unreadable. A volunteer army of nerds has been racing to decipher them.

Notes today:

•  How Worried Should You Be About Commercial Real Estate?

 

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

Notes today: 

 

• Due largely to an unexpected surge in immigration, the U.S. economy will be about $7 trillion larger - & federal revenues about $1T bigger - the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.
• Jeff Stein @JStein_WaPo

• Chinese shares gained after authorities signaled a stronger resolve to stem a $7 trillion rout via a surprise move to replace the head of the country’s securities regulator.

• Morgan Stanley says that India to become world’s 3rd largest economy in 5yrs surpassing Japan & Germany.

• Bank of Japan Deputy Gov. Shinichi Uchida said Thursday that the bank is getting closer to sustainably achieving its 2% inflation goal and reviewing its ultraeasy monetary policy.

• The US government on Thursday outlawed robocalls that use voices generated by artificial intelligence, a decision that sends a clear message that exploiting the technology to scam people and mislead voters won’t be tolerated.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

Elon Musk said the first human patient has received a brain implant from Neuralink

Notes today:

• Shrinking population. Record property downturn. Rising trade tensions. And now a $6 trillion stock market wipeout. The list of problems just keeps growing for Xi Jinping’s China. (Bloomberg)

• China's Evergrande Group, the developer at the center of the country's property crisis, is heading for liquidation after a Hong Kong court ordered it to be wound up.

• US President Joe Biden faces intensifying pressure to confront Iran directly after the country’s proxies killed three American soldiers in a drone strike in Jordan over the weekend, risking precisely the wider regionalconflict that he’s trying to avoid.

• “All war is a symptom of man’s failure as a thinking animal.” John Steinbeck

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

..the U.S. is a pretty lousy place to die. In an analysis of how well countries around the world deliver end-of-life care, the U.S. was ranked 43rd out of the 81 countries assessed, despite being one of the wealthiest nations. The U.K., whose hospices are generally not-for-profit, took first place.

DJ Trend Earnings (Fed Model) is up to date

• No FEAR!

Notes today:

 

• It's all about big tech next week with Meta, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet & Microsoft among those reporting. 

• Over the past 14 months, China’s gold reserves have risen by 287t.

• U.S. Total outstanding credit card balances – 2008 to now

• North Carolina is cutting off coverage of anti-obesity medications for state employees, citing soaring costs and a lack of agreement on pricing from drugmakers.

•  “Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime.” Ernest Hemingway

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

 

Later

 

Quick Overview is up to date

THE WORLD IS FALLING APART. BLAME THE FLUKES. the noise matters: It’s where the black swans come from.

• The Black Swan: The Impact of the HighlyImprobable