Notes Today:

• Rolling Stones to release details of first album of original songs since 2005

• Heavy Rains Threaten China’s Rice Crop in Latest Weather Worry

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

There is no real alternative to the US stock market.

 

S&P 500 stocks at 52 week low (19)

 

S&P 500 stocks at 52 week high (31)

 Quick Overview is up o date

Notes Today: 

• According to a recent study by the European Commission, X—previously Twitter, now owned by Elon Musk—has significantly contributed to the dissemination of Russian disinformation on Ukraine.

• Costco 
• Hotdog: $1.50 including refillable drink. 
• Rotisserie Chicken $5 (117 million sold in 2022, up 10% from 2021)
• 
  
  
  
  
  

• Data from the US labor department showed that the unemployment rate jumped to 3.8% in August and wage gains moderated, suggesting that labor market conditions were weakening. 

• The cost to transport America’s harvest from the Midwest to the rest of the world is soaring as shrinking water levels on the Mississippi River drive up barge freight rates — and the forecast for below-than-average rainfall offers no relief. 

• Bird Flu losses
• 
  
  
  

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

 

 

 

China's Slowing Growth Trend

• Parts of the economy are booming: electric vehicles, solar and wind power, and batteries.

Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Bob Henson

For a swarm of cities across the US South, August will be the hottest month in living memory & more than a century of recordkeeping. These cities look like shoo-ins: Miami, Tampa, Mobile, Montgomery, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Houston, San Antonio, and more.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today: 

• X  Plans to Collect User Biometric Data, Job and School
  History.👎👎 Musk 👎👎
• X, the social network that used to be known as Twitter, updated its privacy policy to include a new kind of user data it plans to collect: biometric.
• X Twitter this week confirmed it’s lifting its ban on paid political ads.

• Berkshire Bet on Mild Florida Hurricanes This Year. It Might Be Paying Off.

• Bad news is good news. GDP was revised down to 2.1% from 2.4%, while the ADP report showed the fewest job gains in five months – market up. 

• The Environmental Protection Agency removed federal protections for a majority of the country's wetlands on Tuesday to comply with a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling.

 Why Europe is a magnet for more Americans

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

 Global Liquidity

• Liquidity matters !

S&P 500 Operating profit margins

Notes Today:

•  Shares in Evergrande, a heavily indebted Chinese property developer, plunged by nearly 90% after they again began trading in Hong Kong.
• The mood is the worst it has been in decades!

• Market value of Chinese property giant, Evergrande.
• 2017: $50 billion
• Now: $0.4 billion

• PFTour: 49.7 Bushels per acre Soybeans. 6 to 10 day hot&dry.

• Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, cautioned that inflation was still too high and said that America’s central bank would be prepared to raise interest rates again if appropriate”. 

• Chinas increasingly worrisome debt dynamics have left it with little choice but to shift away from the current unsustainable growth model. 

• Poll: 78% of Respondents want Congress to impose a code of ethics for the U.S. Supreme Court. 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

 

 Quick Overview is up to date

 Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today: 

• Judge Luttig: every US official is "obligated" under the 14th Amendment "to determine whether Donald Trump qualifies to be put on the ballot." If a state or local official finds he is disqualified, he says, "it will quickly move to the Supreme Court."

• 14th sec 3: No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

• China began military exercises in the seas and skies around Taiwan as a stern warning to separatists and foreign forces”. 

• Confidence in the world’s second-largest economy (China) is slumping as authorities frantically step-up efforts to bolster financial markets. 

• Japan’s overall economy, expanded 5.3% in the past decade, far less than the U.S.’s 23% growth and mainland China’s 83%. 

• At a summit hosted by President Joe Biden at Camp David, America, Japan, and South Korea agreed to step up military co-operation. 

• A state of emergency was declared in British Columbia, Canada, where a wildfire has forced the evacuation of more than 5,000 people. A separate blaze in the neighboring Northwest Territories has displaced some 22,000. 

• Musk seems determined to make X (Twitter) the least safe and least equitable social media platform. He had a few decent ideas, (along with Gov. subsidies) and he thinks that means he now has an endless supply of them. Reality has shown that he does not. 

• US Savings rate:
• 
  
  
  
• Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

 

 

 

Notes Today:

• University of West Virginia trustees are eliminating foreign languages, 20 graduate programs, and much more, going in exactly the wrong direction in our increasingly complex world.

• The crypto dude Sam Bankman-Fried is going to jail for witness tampering.

• The average monthly payment for a new car in the US hit a record $736 last month - up 28% over the last 3 years. 

• New car loan rates went from 4% to 8% while used car loan rates are at 12%+. 
• The average weight of a new vehicle sold in the US last year was a whopping 4,329 pounds.
• That’s over 1,000 pounds higher than the average in 1980

• Chinese-owned Smithfield is PERMANENTLY closing 39 hog farms in Missouri. 

• The world’s largest agriculture producers are pushing back against new EU rules that require proof that crops weren’t grown on deforested land, which producers say will add to the cost of making food. 

• DeSantis’s Florida approves Climate-Denial videos in schools 

• Berkshire Hathaway is posting new all-time high. 
• 
  
• 
  
  
  
• Texas Gov Abbott has installed circular saws between the Rio Grande border buoys to maim or kill anyone who attempts to climb over. Two bodies have already been found trapped in the floating barrier. (@LaikenJordahl )

• Can you run for president while in prison? Yep. 

• By analyzing how people moved while wearing virtual reality headsets, researchers said, a machine learning model accurately predicted their height, weight, age, marital status and more the majority of the time. The work exposes how artificial intelligence could be used to guess personal data, without users having to directly reveal it.

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

 Later

Notes Today:

• Japanese policy makers on Friday may discuss a possible tweak to the Bank of Japan’s so-called yield-curve control policy that would loosen the cap on long-dated government bond yields.

• Yen LT

• 
  
  
  

• Intel: “The magnitude of client computing growth, and how the PC market is recovering faster than anticipated,” ...
• (INTC revenue are more than twice NVDA, while NVDA has 6x its market cap)
• Intel (INTC) one minute chart.

 

Log Chart

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Notes Today:

• Fed raises rates to 22-year high and leaves door open for more. However, they are no longer forecasting a recession.
• Relevant comment revisited: "Central bankers... they often don't know where they are, let alone where they are heading; their maps and compasses are unreliable, and their steering is wonky. Worst of all their recent policy dilemmas are the equivalent of not knowing whether the earth is round or flat."

The Economist September 28th, 2002 

• 30 day fed fund futures

• After Israel’s government passed a law aimed at dramatically weakening the country’s Supreme Court, Morgan Stanley downgraded Israeli sovereign debt. 

• Great news  - Aliens speak English exclusively.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

#Sicily - literally no media outlet is covering this . The streets are on FIRE and they wont spread the news nationally . They wont send help. People call for emergency assistance and no one picks up the phone .    carmen @banditointrench · 9h 

Water temperature in South Florida reached as high as 101°F (38°C), according to preliminary data, which would set a world record if confirmed - WFLA

One of water's most significant properties is that it takes a lot of energy to heat it. Precisely, water has to absorb 4,184 Joules of heat (1 kilocalorie) for the temperature of one kilogram of water to increase 1°C

Notes Today: 

• Twitter X itself out. Killing billions in brand value.
• Twitter’s attempt to rebrand itself as “X” has drawn mockery due to its similarity to the adult video site ‘Xvideos’.  (“X” = new coke) 
• Elon Musk Soooper Genius: Twitter name is coming off the building right now but elonmusk didn’t get permit for the equipment on the street so SFPD is shutting it down. Why would this dude need a permit?
• Elon is now xeeting - I suppose.

• Wheat soars daily limit as Russia attacks Ukrainian ports, Danube warehouses. 

• The global rice market has turned precarious following India’s ban on white rice exports. It has totally become a seller’s market with prices of even cargoes in transit being hiked by $50-100 a tonne, said traders.

• bird logo available?  
  
  
  

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Nearly 400,000 more people moved into than out of the most flood-prone counties in 2021 and 2022—a 103% increase from the prior two years. 

The only stock in the S&P 500 making a 52-week low.

• Long term monthly log chart.

• And Relative Strength

 

Dow Theory,  back to bullish.