Notes Today: 

• U.S. stocks rallied into the close on Thursday amid optimism about negotiations over raising the nation’s debt ceiling. Looking a bit more promising.

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  Some 42% of Americans aged 56-64 have zero retirement account savings, according to the US Census Bureau. 

• 2 poultry workers in England have tested positive for bird flu, officials say however no indication of human-to-human transmission. 

• Death toll mounts in Italy’s worst flooding for 100 years.
• Our planet is having 100 year something or other every other month now...

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Mehdi Hasan

@mehdirhasan

"You can't crown yourself the grand poobah of free speech while also cravenly caving to the demands of foreign autocracies where you also, conveniently, happen to have other business interests." My commentary tonight on Twitter, Turkey, censorship & Musk:

Now this:

Comments regarding Musk’s  Twitter ownership -  from ChatGPT

The ownership structure of a platform like Twitter can have several social implications, whether it is privately owned or publicly owned. Here are some key considerations:

Privately Owned:

1.     Concentration of Power: When a platform like Twitter is privately owned, all decision-making authority rests with the owners or the company's leadership. This concentration of power can lead to concerns about accountability, transparency, and potential biases in content moderation and platform policies.

2.     Profit Motive: Private ownership often means the primary goal of the company is to generate profit for its owners or shareholders. This can impact the platform's priorities and decision-making, as profit considerations may take precedence over other social or public interest concerns.

3.     User Rights and Control: Private ownership gives the company significant control over user data and platform policies. This can raise concerns about privacy, data security, and censorship. The company may have the discretion to enforce certain rules and restrictions on user behavior, potentially affecting freedom of speech and expression.

4.     Innovation and Responsiveness: Privately owned platforms may be more agile and responsive to market demands, allowing them to innovate and adapt quickly. However, their actions may be driven by profit motives rather than broader social or public interests.

Publicly Owned:

1.     Public Accountability: Publicly owned platforms may be subject to greater scrutiny and accountability, as they are answerable to a wider range of stakeholders, including government bodies, regulatory authorities, and the general public. This accountability can help ensure more transparent decision-making and protection of user rights.

2.     Democratic Participation: Public ownership may provide opportunities for more democratic participation in platform governance. Publicly owned platforms could potentially involve users, experts, and public representatives in decision-making processes, fostering diverse perspectives and collective decision-making.

3.     Public Interest Focus: Publicly owned platforms can prioritize public interest goals and societal well-being over short-term profit motives. This could include considerations such as promoting freedom of expression, addressing misinformation, and protecting user privacy, with a greater emphasis on the common good.

4.     Potential for Political Influence: Public ownership can introduce political dynamics and government influence into platform operations. This may raise concerns about political interference, censorship, or biased content moderation decisions. Striking the right balance between independence and government oversight is crucial.

It is important to note that the actual social implications can vary depending on various factors, such as the specific ownership structure, legal frameworks, and the company's approach to governance and decision-making.

 

Fears of a US debt default are rising, but  investors remain untroubled as the low Vix shows.

Cost of insuring US debt  

 Code of Ethics

Policy blunder:

Food Price Inflation

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• Many more Americans now are going hungry than at the peak of the pandemic aid. Some 24.6 million adults didn’t have enough to eat in early April versus 16.7 million the same month two years ago, the Census Bureau estimates.
• And Republicans are seeking new restrictions on food aid and cuts to safety-net programs as a price for raising the debt ceiling. 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today: 

• The world’s largest battery manufacturer CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg which it says will go into mass production this year." Batteries with 400 Wh/kg energy density  could enable competitive commercial airplanes. 

• China raised its gold holdings by about 8.09 tons in April, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Sunday. Total stockpiles now sit at about 2,076 tons, after the nation increased reserves by about 120 tons in the five months through March.

• The U.S. self-reported rate of mental health distress is similar to Canada’s (27%) and Sweden’s (24%). And yet… Annual gun homicides: Canada: 300 Sweden: 60 United States: 15,500 It’s the guns.

• Meanwhile:  Texas has banned more books than *any* state in America.

US debt to US GDP ratio = Problematic Zone..

• Only possible Solution: grow GDP (working harder/smarter and or more people working) "and" raise taxes - see below. Top "marginal" rate in 2022 = 37%
• Take a moment and compare the two charts, and you’ll quickly see when the ratio started to go in the wrong direction -(correlation)

Now this from ChatGPT  (Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer): 

There are several ways that a country can lower its debt to GDP ratio: Increase economic growth: When a country's economy grows, its GDP increases, which can help to reduce the debt to GDP ratio. This can be achieved through measures such as increasing productivity, investing in infrastructure, and promoting trade.

Reduce government spending: By reducing government spending, a country can reduce the amount of debt it accumulates and improve its debt to GDP ratio. This can be achieved through measures such as cutting back on unnecessary programs, reducing waste, and streamlining government operations.

Increase tax revenue: By increasing tax revenue, a country can reduce its reliance on borrowing and improve its debt to GDP ratio. This can be achieved through measures such as increasing tax rates, broadening the tax base, and cracking down on tax evasion.

Sell assets: Another way to reduce debt is to sell government assets such as land, buildings, and state-owned companies. This can generate revenue that can be used to pay down debt and improve the debt to GDP ratio.

It is important to note that reducing the debt to GDP ratio often requires a combination of these measures, as well as other structural reforms aimed at promoting long-term economic growth and stability. Additionally, the specific strategies used to address debt and fiscal policy will depend on a country's unique circumstances and political context.

 Circle of AI life:

YoY, US Money supply  diminishing  at fastest pace since the 1930s

Notes Today: 

• Tension is building over the US debt ceiling, spurring investors as far away as Asia to prepare for the worst

• Global sea surfaces hit record temperatures this April...strong El Niño event appearing in the next few months looms over us...

• Currently, our planet contains eight billion humans. It also contains 33 billion chickens. 

• @VodafoneGroup: Our partner @AST_Spacemobile (ASTS) has completed the first two-way voice call using the Bluewalker 3 (#BW3) satellite 🛰️ 🌠It’s the first time anyone has achieved a direct voice connection from space to everyday cellular devices. A next major step in mobile communications.
• With @AST_SpaceMobile, we've been testing the first-of-its-kind space-based cellular broadband network, with mobile phones. See what AT&T engineer, Suja John, says about our future. #ConnectingChangesEverything

 

 

Ongoing solar storm  hits G4-levels

Some weather frogs are predicting a 62% chance of an El Nino event developing during the May-July timeframe. 

• If it does develop it implies a drier/warmer than normal US corn/soybean belt. 
• While Brazil and Argentina could be wetter than normal.
• Drier and hotter in southeast Asia
• Should Soybean production come in some 3% below current estimates the stock / usage ratio would drop to about 3.4% 

•  Now this from Chat GPT: I'm sorry, as an AI language model, I don't have the ability to predict future events with certainty. However, I can tell you that El Niño events are difficult to predict with a high degree of accuracy. El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs irregularly and can vary in strength and duration. It involves changes in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and can have significant impacts on global weather patterns. While there are some indicators that suggest the possibility of an El Niño event this year, it is impossible to say for certain whether one will occur. It's important to note that even if an El Niño event does occur, its impacts can vary depending on its strength and other atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
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FT: Deaths in China outstripping births for first time since 1960s

Is the headline curse about to diminish Apple?

Notes Today:

• Floridians will be able to carry concealed guns without a permit under a bill DeSantis signed Monday. This will allow anyone who can legally own a gun in Florida to carry one without a permit or training, nor will a background check be required.
• An estimated 26% of Americans ages 18 and older -- about 1 in 4 adults -- suffers from a diagnosable mentaldisorder in a given year. Many people suffer from more than one mental disorder at a given time. In particular, depressive illnesses tend to co-occur with substance use and anxiety disorders.

It is dangerous, “Spock says, “to be ill-informed about facts.”

 

Later

 

S&P 500 Stocks making new 52 week highs (6)

Activision Blizzard Ord Shs	84.39	ATVI.O
Copart Ord Shs	71.43	CPRT.O
Darden Restaurants Ord Shs	152.58	DRI
Hershey Foods Ord Shs	247.86	HSY
Mondelez International Ord Shs Class A	69.04	MDLZ.O
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Ord Shs	820	REGN.O

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes Today: 

• In America, a gun is stolen from a car every 15 minutes. Thanks to lax gun laws like permitless carry, firearm thefts from cars are up 225% in the past decade, and are now the largest source of stolen guns, which then become ....  

• American consumers are one step closer to being able to buy chicken grown in bioreactors.

• After the government intervened at SVB, some are wondering if accounts at all banks are implicitly guaranteed. If so, what function does private banking serve? 

• Permit less carry bill passes Florida House, firearm training requirement removed.

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Why is money moving out of bank deposits? – explanatory chart..

 

Notes Today:

• Moody’s sees risk that US banking turmoil can’t be contained. Well, that does not sound very good. 

• WSJ: Elon Musk’s Twitter is now a gigantic $13 billion in debt due to advertisers fleeing to “protect their brands” from Twitter’s toxicity. 

• Yet another crypto dude, Do Kwon, is charged with fraud by US Prosecutors in New York. Could Munger be right and crypto is just an open sewer, full of malicious organisms?