Latest US Inflation and Fed Funds comp.

Notes today: 

• “Despite our citizens’ penchant – almost enthusiasm – for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America,” - calling near-term economic and market forecasts “worse than useless.” 
• Do yourself a great big favor and read it! Warren Buffett 2/25/2023  
• We are understanding about business mistakes; our tolerance for personal misconduct is zero.

• China's single population to reach 400 million, youths staring at being single for life...

• Rise in Auto Delinquencies
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   Car  Loan Payments Soar to $1,000

 

Dow Trend Earnings (aka Fed Model) is up to date.

• Perhaps, you may want to note that the equity risk premium (FEAR) is at its lowest since the run-up to 2008.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today: 

• Across the 4 states that are top #XBB15 dominant epicenters in Northeast US, hospitalizations are increasing. The reason is that #XBB15 is one of the most evasive variants against immunity (high escape) and fusion with human cells (high ACE2 binding)—a worst of both worlds.    Eric Feigl-Ding  @DrEricDing

• FT: Families will get $7,600 per child if they swap Japan's overcrowded capital, but they'll have to embrace the provincial life for 5 years minimum if they don't want to lose the money.

• 2022 was the worst year in more than a decade for global equities and bonds.
• The S&P ended the year down almost 20%.

•  Exxon Sues EU Over Windfall Profit Levy
• Energy giant says Europe’s effort to take a bite from surging income discourages investment and its adoption violated rules (WSJ)
• Exxon to record more than $56bn in profits in 2022 and Chevron is set to top $37bn, record highs for both companies, according to Wall Street estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ. 
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• After trillions of dollars in losses, and waves of corporate bankruptcies and fraud, crypto is looking like an increasingly toxic asset class.
• Fidelity Investments is however betting that crypto has a bright future and wants to be in the thick of it.  (Barrons)  aka FOMO
• During 2022 Bitcoin consumed 161 TWh of electricity in total -exceeding a country such as Sweden. Related CO2 emissions were ~90 Mt - again negating the entire global net savings from EVs.

• Krugman: Do American conservatives know that Hungary — Hungary! — has been trying to hold down inflation with price controls?

• Israel will resume direct contacts with the Russian Federation at the highest level, said the new Israeli Foreign Minister .. (WTF)

• A new weight loss drug could become the best-selling drug of all time. 
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Quick Overview is up to date

Wishing You and Yours a Very Happy Holidays 

Notes today: 

• reuters: widespread covid in china could result in up to 2m deaths.
• Crematoriums across China are straining to deal with an influx of bodies as the country battles a wave of COVID-19 cases that authorities have said is impossible to track. Cases are soaring across China, with hospitals struggling and pharmacy shelves stripped bare.

• As anticipate, the Bank of Japan, the developed world’s last holdout for rock-bottom interest rates inches toward policy normalization. 
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• Petulant Elon’s Twitter BS is leaking into tesla. Tesla stock tanking today, down 3%, 63% YTD. New low on the move. 
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• Not sure that the crypto disaster / scheme will not bleed into the rest of the markets – and be supportive to traditional (Gold/Silver) hard assets.
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Covid is spreading faster than ever in China. Hospitals appear completely overwhelmed ever since restrictions dropped. Some Epidemiologist estimate >60% of China & 10% of Earth’s population will most likely be infected over next 90 days. Deaths could be in the millions—Some experts think that doubling time may now be hours.

• But hell, let’s not get BioNTech or Moderna – Vaccines that work!

A fundraiser that will make history

JOIN TIMOTHY SNYDER'S FUNDRAISER FOR THE «SHAHED HUNTER»!

Give, Donate, Contribute!  NOW!

 Musk/ Twitter suspends ....

Anyone critical of his disastrously failing operations and connections.

Keith Olbermann

Aaron Rupar

Donie O' Sullivan

Drew Harwell,  and others - links to competitors such as Mastodon no longer appear to be allowed!

• This dude is acting as if he is in financial trouble and it is affecting his judgment..
• Twitter Bankruptcy looks likely  .

• Twitter will probably be history in the EU in the near future.

• What a self-destructive jerk! Laurence Tribe

• Eric Garland         @ericgarland

Washington Post expected more democratic values from the South African dude who just hired a member of the Chinese Communist Party to run his car company in Texas.

 

• Elon Musk starts banning critical journalists from Twitter

   / 

  The reporters have tweeted about his private jet recently.

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CPI ex shelter and used vehicles

 

Hail to the New Troll-in-Chief 

“He’s studied Trump and knows how to say the most outrageous shit and drive the news cycle,” Bannon confirmed. And his wealth has been cut in half from its $340 billion peak partly due to his Twitter purchase.

• Tesla investors voice concern over Elon Musk’s focus on Twitter ..

• Musk/Twitter has stopped paying rent on offices and is considering not paying severance packages to former employees, among other measures. 

Nestle to launch new Ukraine facility in rare war-time investment

US Companies continue to buy back  stock.

The Bird is beyond saving. 

Check out Mastodon

For the record: Dr. Fauci has done nothing wrong, except serve our nation. In the meantime, Mr. Musk should know that 200,000 Americans needlessly lost their lives from Covid due to this kind of antiscience rhetoric and disinformation. Elon, I’m asking you to take down this Tweet.

Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD  @PeterHotez

Central Banks stockpiling Gold

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 Renting versus Buying - historically high..

 Yield Curve:

Birds are departing twitter.. 

New mastodon users

 

S&P 500 Stocks at 52 week highs

Notes today: 

• Highlights from the lates Crypto disaster: 

• Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt crypto empire owes its 50 biggest unsecured creditors a total of $3.1 billion, new court papers show, with a pair of customers owed more than $200 million each. This dude bragged that he never reads a book – a clue perhaps?

• FTX Bankruptcy, (third-largest, was valued at $32bn) - is worse than anyone imagined. 
• Software was allegedly used to conceal the misuse of customer funds. 
• A single, unsecured group email was used to access private keys and sensitive data around the world. 
• Corporate funds of FTX Group were used to buy homes and other personal items for employees. 
• Employees of the FTX Group submitted payment requests through an on-line ‘chat’ platform. we do Big Business based onemojis in the chat.

•  But hey, these dudes where decentralizes and disruptors, not boring financiers.

• My Crypto definition = pure speculative rubbish,  fundamentally worth ZERO.

• (The Tulip mania 1634-1637 had more intrinsic value. Tulips are beautiful and some smell very nice)

• Nassin Nicholas Taleb on Crypto / Bitcoin 

Notes today: 

• Mortgage Rates Could Tank Home Prices by 20%, Fed Study Finds

• BREAKING: A senior U.S. official states that Russian missiles have crossed into Poland (killing two) - Eagerly awaiting Kremlin explanation-  on purpose or accident?

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Charlie Munger, a longtime critic of crypto, called digital currencies a combination of delusion and fraud in the wake of the blowup of exchange FTX. "Partly fraud and partly delusion. That’s a bad combination."

“This is a very, very bad thing," Munger said. "The country did not need a currency that was good for kidnappers.

 

 

 

 

• JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset-management arm entered into a deal to acquire more than $1 billion of single-family rentals, a sign that choppy markets haven’t scared investors away from suburban housing.
• Invitation Homes - a company with a portfolio of some 80,000 homes.

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• Rent Inflation CPI & Zillow

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Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:  

• Iranian parliament voted to impose the death penalty on all protesters in custody as a "hard lesson" for all rebels ...14,000-15,000 have been arrested

• The UN says that as of November 15th the planet will have 8 billion humans.

• Seven days ago, he had $16 billion. Today, he has $0. Do we think he’s … crying? I would cry:

• Cash held by Americans
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• Regarding the above chart it is perhaps worth noting that a 1950 $ is worth $12.73 today - making  the 5 trillion  looking a bit - needy? 

• Stocks rose  in a buy-the whole thing relief rally after slower-than-projected inflation  growth spurred bets that the Federal Reserve can downshift its aggressive rate-hike path. The S&P 500 climbed 5.5%... 

• BREAKING: FTX had a “backdoor” built into its accounting software by SBF, which he used to move billions without triggering alerts to other staff, auditors etc - Reuters 
• (Digital assets were "supposed" to revolutionize finance - well, reality is setting in)..

• Meanwhile: It looks that the founder of #FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried just landed his private jet in Argentina. 

• Elon Musk, in his first address to Twitter employees since purchasing the company for $44 billion, said bankruptcy was a possibility. Elon the "brilliant" business man..

• Something’s up in the silver market. Silver imports into India for the first 10 months of 2022 are now at a record 9100 tons. This, versus some 1030 tons annual world supply. Exchange stocks are dropping.  Perhaps - with all the Crypto BS, could people be realizing that some “hard” assets (a bit more difficult to steal) may not be so bad...
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• The Yen is performing as advertised - so far...
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Notes today: 

• Some good news, it seems France and Macron will support a full ban of Deep-Sea Mining. 

• Inflation in Turkey nearing 100% 

• Elon Musk in April: "For Twitter to deserve public trust, it must be politically neutral."
• Elon Musk on Monday: "I recommend voting for a Republican Congress."
• Tesla stock has dropped more than 15% since Must took over Twitter, while NASDQ is down about 1% - brand damage!

• Bank of Japan’s Suzuki; “ we must seek an exit from massive fiscal stimulus”..

"Let that sink in" 

@adamzyglis