Notes today:

• Author of BlackSwan (read it) regarding Twitter/Musk:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb  @nntaleb

Musk paid $44bn for something now worth perhaps ~15 & w/ rates no longer 0, he needs that thing only a few of us still remember called "profits". Not "valuation", but "profits" & "cash flow" (see finance 101). He badly needs the system (still) driven by the minority rule. Sorry.

(AKA - betting on the come - loaded with debt; interest alone will be billions of dollars each year.)

Btw- the second largest  investor in Musk's Twitter appears to be .. Saudi Arabia 👎 Meanwhile, an American citizen has been sentenced to 16 years in prison in Saudi Arabia for "tweeting" critically about the Saudi regime.

• Poland chose Westinghouse, an American (private) company, to build its first nuclear power plant as the country seeks to burn less coal, cutting air pollution and emissions, and to strengthen its energy security. (Economist)

• Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have fled the country in the past month to avoid being drafted. (Economist)

• A report from the International Energy Agency found that war in Ukraine has hastened the world’s transition to renewable energy.👍

• Todays quote: Star Trek’s Spock says, “It is dangerous to be ill-informed about facts”

Notes today:

• And in March of this year, the average real wealth of the American middle class—including home equity and other physical assets as well as retirement and other savings—peaked at $393,300, the highest it’s ever been, according to data assembled by economists at the University of California, Berkeley.
• Xi vows to dominate the world by 2049 - Surrounding yourself with yes men is however not a very good start – historically.

• META (nee’ Facebook) is down -13% afterhours after missing on EPS ($1.64 vs $1.88). 

• Brazil FT: Bolsonaro’s colorful personal life, with three marriages and two divorces, has not stopped him from winning support from evangelicals. He has also gained ground among the poor, thanks to a programme of cash handouts for lower-income families

• Brazil Bovespa Index (weekly)

California Poised to Overtake Germany as World’s No. 4 Economy 

The truth is that California outperforms the US and the rest of world across many industries. 

U.S, China, Japan and California 👍👍

Notes today: 

• Justice Thomas agrees to halt Graham testimony in Georgia election probe..confidence in  SCOTUS heading BELOW recent 25%..

• Two-Cent Venezuela Bonds Lure Traders Hunting Lottery-Like Score

It’s one of the most outlandish bets in global creditmarkets: Buying up defaulted bonds sold by a country under sanctions that leave US investors locked out of the market. 

• LLY at all time high..

• Reuters: Uganda has reported nine more Ebola cases in the capital Kampala, bringing the total number of known infections to 14 in the last two days. The outbreak began in September in a rural part of central Uganda. It spread earlier this month to Kampala, a city of more than 1.6 million people.

Chinese Yuan -  15-year Low

and SSEC Shanghai struggling

Let’s not forget  the Britishpound – on its way to 100? 

China - less transparent..

Chinese Markets Tumble as Xi’s Tightening Grip Alarms Investors

Market Vane Sentiment

 Investor Intelligence Sentiment

 Libor & Fed Funds Spread

Economist: House-price horror show.

Worldwide, homes are worth $90trn (for comparison, stock markets are worth $90trn), and account for half of all wealth.

 The relentless Yen - will it end?

• Outside day

• The yen appreciated on Friday, as the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government conducted a dollar-selling intervention.

Fed Funds and Inflation -  ways to go..

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

• Just in case you haven’t noticed - the pandemic is not over. Continue to wear your fing mask indoors. 

• Yang Zhang: What we just saw was the making of an All Xi's Men team, the breaking of decade-long rules, and the birth of an unlimited supreme leader. These are not entirely surprising, but Xi's grab of power is still beyond our expectation. He is now a truly modern emperor. (And no women anywhere)

• At the moment only Democrats appear to be upset at the Saudis. Republicans are upset at Joe Biden

• Russia can end this war today by withdrawing all its forces. Simple!

• Stocks rallied in a good way to close out last week in positive fashion. 

• Upcoming quarterly earnings next week for Apple, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft etc.

• Plus, there are several economic reports due out this week, including housing numbers and the latest updated GDP figure. 

• Bloomberg: The largest US banks are warning of trouble ahead in auto loans with prices for used cars falling leaving borrowers at risk of owing more than their cars are worth. 

• Looking at the water levels in the major rivers of the world this year, Mississippi, Rhine, Yangtze and not conclude that there is something serious happening to the climate? (Today: according to the NWS observed water levels, the Miss at Memphis broke its recent new record low and hit -10.80 feet at 3AM. Then at 5AM, it broke its new record, hitting -10.81 feet.) (wheat,corn,beans etc ??)

• Trump was ordered to testify under oath and provide documents to the House of Representatives.

•  US life expectancy falls to lowest since 1996..

• Change in rates

• A survey taken in June has the public confidence in the Supreme Court  at 25%, its lowest level in Gallup’s 50 years of polling.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

HUI - Gold bugs suffering..

NYSE advance decline line 

& volume advance decline line

& NASDQ advance decline line

Euro Dollar Rates

• This was probably the lowest risk trade "ever" – anyone take advantage?

Quick Overview is up to date.

• You may want to note - new lows for the move:

DBC Commodity Index

Gold

S&P (almost)

Lumber

Crude

Yield spread

Bonds

Euro dollars

Dow Industrials

Dow Transports

 

• You may want to note - new highs for the move:

Dollar Index

Notes today:

• The Capesize Index, tracking iron ore and coal shipping, doesn’t look to bad.

 

Recession Signal

.. levels not seen since 2000

 Quick Overview is up to date

 

Mapping America’s Underwater Real Estate .. is a virtually unprecedented disclosure of how much damage climate change can be expected to inflict at the level of individual homes.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

• According to statistics, the US now does 38% of the world’s Bitcoin mining, compared with 3.5% in 2020 -  using more energy than many countries, including Argentina and Australia, according to the report.

• What really surprises us,” Lieutenant General Yevhen Moisiuk, the deputy commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, told me in Kyiv yesterday morning, “is that the Russian troops are not fighting back.” 

Yoni Appelbaum  @YAppelbaum

• Three days after NARA asked Trump for documents, he flew boxes of documents from Florida to New Jersey.

• Recent Capesize

• Quite interesting article: Why is China so Obsessed With Food Security?

Latest Dow Trend Earnings (aka Fed Model)

Small change in Dow Theory Prediction:

Returning to bullish view if

DJIA closes above 34116 "and"

DJTA closes above 15248

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today:

• Russia halts gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions lifted. 

• New York’s waters are being reborn

   From whale to oyster to human, animals are coming back

• Recent Panamax:

• Falling US life expectancy:

• Coal new high:

• Pro Farmer estimated the U.S. corn yield at 168.1 bushels per acre on Friday, well below the USDA's forecast of 175.4. 

 US Civilian Unemployment Rate

 Who's dying in the US?