The relentless Yen - will it end?

• Outside day

• The yen appreciated on Friday, as the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government conducted a dollar-selling intervention.

Fed Funds and Inflation -  ways to go..

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

• Just in case you haven’t noticed - the pandemic is not over. Continue to wear your fing mask indoors. 

• Yang Zhang: What we just saw was the making of an All Xi's Men team, the breaking of decade-long rules, and the birth of an unlimited supreme leader. These are not entirely surprising, but Xi's grab of power is still beyond our expectation. He is now a truly modern emperor. (And no women anywhere)

• At the moment only Democrats appear to be upset at the Saudis. Republicans are upset at Joe Biden

• Russia can end this war today by withdrawing all its forces. Simple!

• Stocks rallied in a good way to close out last week in positive fashion. 

• Upcoming quarterly earnings next week for Apple, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft etc.

• Plus, there are several economic reports due out this week, including housing numbers and the latest updated GDP figure. 

• Bloomberg: The largest US banks are warning of trouble ahead in auto loans with prices for used cars falling leaving borrowers at risk of owing more than their cars are worth. 

• Looking at the water levels in the major rivers of the world this year, Mississippi, Rhine, Yangtze and not conclude that there is something serious happening to the climate? (Today: according to the NWS observed water levels, the Miss at Memphis broke its recent new record low and hit -10.80 feet at 3AM. Then at 5AM, it broke its new record, hitting -10.81 feet.) (wheat,corn,beans etc ??)

• Trump was ordered to testify under oath and provide documents to the House of Representatives.

•  US life expectancy falls to lowest since 1996..

• Change in rates

• A survey taken in June has the public confidence in the Supreme Court  at 25%, its lowest level in Gallup’s 50 years of polling.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

HUI - Gold bugs suffering..

NYSE advance decline line 

& volume advance decline line

& NASDQ advance decline line

Euro Dollar Rates

• This was probably the lowest risk trade "ever" – anyone take advantage?

Quick Overview is up to date.

• You may want to note - new lows for the move:

DBC Commodity Index

Gold

S&P (almost)

Lumber

Crude

Yield spread

Bonds

Euro dollars

Dow Industrials

Dow Transports

 

• You may want to note - new highs for the move:

Dollar Index

Notes today:

• The Capesize Index, tracking iron ore and coal shipping, doesn’t look to bad.

 

Recession Signal

.. levels not seen since 2000

 Quick Overview is up to date

 

Mapping America’s Underwater Real Estate .. is a virtually unprecedented disclosure of how much damage climate change can be expected to inflict at the level of individual homes.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

• According to statistics, the US now does 38% of the world’s Bitcoin mining, compared with 3.5% in 2020 -  using more energy than many countries, including Argentina and Australia, according to the report.

• What really surprises us,” Lieutenant General Yevhen Moisiuk, the deputy commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, told me in Kyiv yesterday morning, “is that the Russian troops are not fighting back.” 

Yoni Appelbaum  @YAppelbaum

• Three days after NARA asked Trump for documents, he flew boxes of documents from Florida to New Jersey.

• Recent Capesize

• Quite interesting article: Why is China so Obsessed With Food Security?

Latest Dow Trend Earnings (aka Fed Model)

Small change in Dow Theory Prediction:

Returning to bullish view if

DJIA closes above 34116 "and"

DJTA closes above 15248

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today:

• Russia halts gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions lifted. 

• New York’s waters are being reborn

   From whale to oyster to human, animals are coming back

• Recent Panamax:

• Falling US life expectancy:

• Coal new high:

• Pro Farmer estimated the U.S. corn yield at 168.1 bushels per acre on Friday, well below the USDA's forecast of 175.4. 

 US Civilian Unemployment Rate

 Who's dying in the US?

 

Quick Overview is up to date

The BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index is making new (recent) lows ..

Notes this week:

• (Reuters) Singapore is planning to roll out new regulations that will make it more difficult for retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies at a time when they seem to be "irrationally oblivious" about the risks, its central bank chief said.

• German chemical giants' herbicides infuse Argentina's soy. All over the world, glyphosate is being banned, but here they just keep spraying," 

• Japan is set to approve what could be its biggest increase in defense outlays since the end of the war, putting it on a path to become one of the world’s top military spenders. 
• “In terms of national security, food should come before weapons,” he said. “If you don’t have food, you can’t fight.” 

• China calls on Putin to end Russian roulette at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine after disaster near-miss. When China is speaking up, you know it’s serious. They barely have peeped a word about Ukraine until now. (Bill Browder) 

• Elon Musk  @elonmusk Population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming.....   ... ..  I am speechless!

• South Korean shipbuilder bets on methanol-powered vessels in decarbonization push.

• Pro farmer US corn yield.

• Three insiders have bought Casava (SAVA) stock since August 15.. 

Later

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes this week: 

• IRIMO (Iran Meteorological Organization) just verified and officialized the 53.6C recorded at Shush on 9 August. This would be the highest temperature ever recorded in Asia in August and one of the highest worldwide in history.
• THIS IS 128.48 Fahrenheit
• 
  
• With interest rates now hovering around 5%, existing-home sales are down more than 14% from last year. (Booomberg)

• The Inflation Reduction Act has PASSED! Every Democrat voted for the bill. Every Republican voted against it. 

• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed that inflation expectations for the year-ahead cooled in July and morale among US consumers rose to a 3-month high. 

 

• Trump, first president to take the Fifth.
• Trump, first president to have his home searched by the FBI.
• Trump, first president to be investigated for violating the Espionage Act.  
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• Turkey’s bonds are downgraded by Moody’s to B3 from B2. (Junk)

• Putin is offering $1,900 per month for any Russian willing to fight in Ukraine.

• US Crop production:
• Soybeans & corn ended higher. Wheat ended mixed today.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today: 

• The US jobless rate is at 3.5%. The last time unemployment was this low, the Apollo moon landings was in progress. 

• The Senate parliamentarian determined that the lion's share of the healthcare provisions in the $430 billion bill could be passed with only a simple majority.. 
• Democrats added in an excise tax on stock buybacks that will bring in $74 billion.
• For years, Democrats and  Republicans  have called for closing the so-called carried interest loophole that allows wealthy hedge fund managers and private equity executives to pay lower tax rates than entry-level employees. OUT because of Sinema.

• Eli Lilly and Co.—among Indiana’s largest employers—on the state’s new near-total abortion ban: “Given this new law, we will be forced to plan for more employment growth outside our home state.”
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• UK enacts ownership register for property held by foreign companies and to identify their true owners. It will seek to ensure criminals cannot hide behind secretive chains of shell companies. May help corner the US into doing likewise. 

• China continued its most provocative military drills in decades. Distraction is needed - see below.
• Consumer Confidence in China 

• Millions of households across the south of England could be hit with hosepipe bans within days.
• The French government has activated a crisis task force to coordinate efforts to alleviate the effects of an “historic” drought exacerbated by an extreme summer heatwave.
• 
  
  The drying up of the Great Salt Lake, which is not only affecting local ecosystems but exposing millions of people to the toxic metals from mining that have accumulated in the lake bed over decades & now blow across the city
• Wildfires in the  Amazon increased by 8% in July 2022 compared to the same month last year, according to official data.

• 
  @MichaelEMann while it stops short of 50 percent emissions drop we need, the climate deal now poised to pass Senate will be “the most progress we will have made in addressing the climate crisis — ever — from the standpoint of Congressional action.”