Notes today:

• The Capesize Index, tracking iron ore and coal shipping, doesn’t look to bad.

 

Recession Signal

.. levels not seen since 2000

 Quick Overview is up to date

 

Mapping America’s Underwater Real Estate .. is a virtually unprecedented disclosure of how much damage climate change can be expected to inflict at the level of individual homes.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

• According to statistics, the US now does 38% of the world’s Bitcoin mining, compared with 3.5% in 2020 -  using more energy than many countries, including Argentina and Australia, according to the report.

• What really surprises us,” Lieutenant General Yevhen Moisiuk, the deputy commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, told me in Kyiv yesterday morning, “is that the Russian troops are not fighting back.” 

Yoni Appelbaum  @YAppelbaum

• Three days after NARA asked Trump for documents, he flew boxes of documents from Florida to New Jersey.

• Recent Capesize

• Quite interesting article: Why is China so Obsessed With Food Security?

Latest Dow Trend Earnings (aka Fed Model)

Small change in Dow Theory Prediction:

Returning to bullish view if

DJIA closes above 34116 "and"

DJTA closes above 15248

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today:

• Russia halts gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions lifted. 

• New York’s waters are being reborn

   From whale to oyster to human, animals are coming back

• Recent Panamax:

• Falling US life expectancy:

• Coal new high:

• Pro Farmer estimated the U.S. corn yield at 168.1 bushels per acre on Friday, well below the USDA's forecast of 175.4. 

 US Civilian Unemployment Rate

 Who's dying in the US?

 

Quick Overview is up to date

The BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index is making new (recent) lows ..

Notes this week:

• (Reuters) Singapore is planning to roll out new regulations that will make it more difficult for retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies at a time when they seem to be "irrationally oblivious" about the risks, its central bank chief said.

• German chemical giants' herbicides infuse Argentina's soy. All over the world, glyphosate is being banned, but here they just keep spraying," 

• Japan is set to approve what could be its biggest increase in defense outlays since the end of the war, putting it on a path to become one of the world’s top military spenders. 
• “In terms of national security, food should come before weapons,” he said. “If you don’t have food, you can’t fight.” 

• China calls on Putin to end Russian roulette at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine after disaster near-miss. When China is speaking up, you know it’s serious. They barely have peeped a word about Ukraine until now. (Bill Browder) 

• Elon Musk  @elonmusk Population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming.....   ... ..  I am speechless!

• South Korean shipbuilder bets on methanol-powered vessels in decarbonization push.

• Pro farmer US corn yield.

• Three insiders have bought Casava (SAVA) stock since August 15.. 

Later

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes this week: 

• IRIMO (Iran Meteorological Organization) just verified and officialized the 53.6C recorded at Shush on 9 August. This would be the highest temperature ever recorded in Asia in August and one of the highest worldwide in history.
• THIS IS 128.48 Fahrenheit
• 
  
• With interest rates now hovering around 5%, existing-home sales are down more than 14% from last year. (Booomberg)

• The Inflation Reduction Act has PASSED! Every Democrat voted for the bill. Every Republican voted against it. 

• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed that inflation expectations for the year-ahead cooled in July and morale among US consumers rose to a 3-month high. 

 

• Trump, first president to take the Fifth.
• Trump, first president to have his home searched by the FBI.
• Trump, first president to be investigated for violating the Espionage Act.  
• 
  
  
  

• Turkey’s bonds are downgraded by Moody’s to B3 from B2. (Junk)

• Putin is offering $1,900 per month for any Russian willing to fight in Ukraine.

• US Crop production:
• Soybeans & corn ended higher. Wheat ended mixed today.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today: 

• The US jobless rate is at 3.5%. The last time unemployment was this low, the Apollo moon landings was in progress. 

• The Senate parliamentarian determined that the lion's share of the healthcare provisions in the $430 billion bill could be passed with only a simple majority.. 
• Democrats added in an excise tax on stock buybacks that will bring in $74 billion.
• For years, Democrats and  Republicans  have called for closing the so-called carried interest loophole that allows wealthy hedge fund managers and private equity executives to pay lower tax rates than entry-level employees. OUT because of Sinema.

• Eli Lilly and Co.—among Indiana’s largest employers—on the state’s new near-total abortion ban: “Given this new law, we will be forced to plan for more employment growth outside our home state.”
• 
  
  
  

• UK enacts ownership register for property held by foreign companies and to identify their true owners. It will seek to ensure criminals cannot hide behind secretive chains of shell companies. May help corner the US into doing likewise. 

• China continued its most provocative military drills in decades. Distraction is needed - see below.
• Consumer Confidence in China 

• Millions of households across the south of England could be hit with hosepipe bans within days.
• The French government has activated a crisis task force to coordinate efforts to alleviate the effects of an “historic” drought exacerbated by an extreme summer heatwave.
• 
  
  The drying up of the Great Salt Lake, which is not only affecting local ecosystems but exposing millions of people to the toxic metals from mining that have accumulated in the lake bed over decades & now blow across the city
• Wildfires in the  Amazon increased by 8% in July 2022 compared to the same month last year, according to official data.

• 
  @MichaelEMann while it stops short of 50 percent emissions drop we need, the climate deal now poised to pass Senate will be “the most progress we will have made in addressing the climate crisis — ever — from the standpoint of Congressional action.”

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Solar stocks rose last week after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Sen. Joe Manchin, said they’ve reached a deal on climate spending. The package earmarks a record $369 billion for climate and clean energy provisions.

Invesco Solar ETF added 9.6%

 Soybeans weather problems..

Silver increased to a 4-week high of 20.247 

 Yen - interesting..

A reshuffle in the Board of the Bank of Japan resulted in two new policymakers, former private economist Takata and former banker Tamura, they spared little time before voicing the need to think of an exit strategy from the BoJ’s ultra-easy monetary policy stance.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

30 year low China Consumer Confidence

With consumer confidence this low, may it be necessary to direct attention somewhere else?

 Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

 

• A day after Ukraine and Russia had signed a deal to resume grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, Russian missiles hit Odessa, the biggest of those ports. 

• (Economist) Xinjiang, a region in the far west of China, was warned that it faced flash floods, mudslides, and risks to agriculture amid forecasts of more unusually high temperatures in the coming days. Some 20% of the world’s cotton is produced in the area. Since mid-June much of China has baked under brutal heatwaves, which are attributed to climate change. 

• Australia now gets an amazing 35.8% of its electricity from renewables, up from 8% in 2009. 1 in 4 Australian homes have solar. 

• Mario Draghi’s, the man credited with saving the euro, departs. Italy has had 69 govts since the end of WWII – on average one every 13mths. 

• (FT) China’s Belt and Road spending in Russia drops to zero... 

• (FT) Palestinian villagers lose 20-year legal fight to hang on to homes... 

• Recently BMW announced plans to charge a subscription for heated seats – Hackers are having a field day. 

• Amazon stock has gotten crushed. There’s a case It could double, or even triple, from here. So says Barron's. 

• Stocks in Argentina hit all-time High. 

• “No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot” Mark Twain

 

 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Sock indices looking a bit better

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Copper and Gold - decline continues..