Notes today: 

• Abortion Bans Are Playing a Role in Where Companies Locate. Jobs Could Be Lost.

• Italy’s public debt currently stands at €2.8tn in May, near record. The debt-to-GDP ratio is over 150% making Italy the “proud” home of almost a quarter of all Eurozone debt. 
• In addition, northern Italy has the worst drought in 70 years.

• Fitch downgraded Turkey’s sovereign debt rating into junk. 

• California Governor Gavin Newsom on Tuesday signed one of two bills passed by the Legislature allowing private rights of action against gun dealers andmanufacturers — strengthening the Golden State’s already strict gun laws while taking a swipe at a similar law in Texas that goes after abortion.

• After drawing foreign capital into China’s markets for years, President Xi Jinping is now facing the risk of a nasty period of financial de-globalization. 

Wall Street Set for New ETF Gold Rush as Single-Stock Era Begins

Cholera Found in Turtles at Wet Market in Covid Epicenter Wuhan

 Later

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today: 

• Pregnant woman says fetus should count as a passenger in the HOV lane. Says Texas can’t have it both ways. 

• Great News: Musk said he’s ending his $44 billion arrangement to acquire Twitter  and take it private. 

• The US economy added 372K jobs last month, well above market expectations of a 268K rise, while the jobless rate held steady as expected. 

• Consumer credit in the US increased by USD 22.35 billion in May - slowing significantly. Market expected 31.9 billion. 

• Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe died after being shot on the campaign trail for Sunday’s upper house elections. 

• Narcissistic, dishonest Brexiteer Boris Johnson is soon-to-be former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

• Claims of the largest cyberattack (1 billion Chinese) in Chinese history have sparked an open debate about the extent to which Beijing hoovers up personal data and uses private firms to “safeguard” that trove. 

• Mexico’s had its debt rating cut by Moody’s to Baa2, putting it two steps above junk and on par with Uruguay and the Philippines. (7/7/2022 U.S. State Department issues new travel advisory impacting Tijuana, Rosarito and Baja California)

Nice drop in mortgage rates:

S&P 500 Average Weekly Performance from 1900

Week 27 (this one ) is generally second best..

Notes today: 

• The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said the EU needs to make emergency plans to prepare for a complete cut-off of Russian Gas.

• Boris Johnson was clinging to power wounded by the resignation of ministers who said he was not fit to govern. 

• US Job openings decreased to 11.3 million on the last business day of May. Hires and total separations changed little at 6.5 million and 6.0 million, respectively. 

• Guardian analysis of water samples taken in nine US locations shows test agency uses is likely missing significant levels of PFAS pollutants.

• Economists at Bloomberg calculate a 38% chance of a US recession in the next year... 

• The alleged theft of some 23 terabytes of personal information on about a billion Chinese citizens from a Shanghai police database would rank as the world’s largest ever known data breach.

• (FT) Martin Wolf: The crypto crash (and preceding bubble) shows that cryptocurrencies are objects of speculation rather than stores of value. That also makes them unusable as units of account. 

• German factory orders unexpectedly rose 0.1% in May.

New report that all (or nearly all) ancient bristlecone pines growing in Panamint Range, Death Valley have died in 2022 

Victims of record drought & invading bark beetles. 

Add these irreplaceable 1000+ year-old trees to the list of losses due to escalating climate change.

Evan Frost @EFrost_Wildwood 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

• Copper new low
• Gold new low
• Dollar new high

 What's moving this week is up to date

ETF's(Exchange traded funds)

Commodity Futures

S&P 500(50 strongest stocks)

NASDAQ composit (50 strongest stocks)

 

Notes today: 

• The Bank of Japan is likely to keep its current monetary easing program “for many quarters to come," according to a former BOJ official.

Is that so ? 

• The number of foreign tourist arrivals in Spain surged by 411.1% YoY 

• Germany’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in May of 2022, the lowest since December 1992. 

• Turkey’s CPI rose an annual 78.62% through last month, up from 73.5% in May. 

• Inflation in Switzerland accelerated to the fastest pace in nearly three decades, hitting 3.4% in June. That’s up from 2.9% in May. 

• General Motors reported that nearly 100,000 vehicles sat uncompleted due to supply chain issues.

• Chinas government has embarked on a campaign to rein in the market for pork, just as higher costs of its staple meat threaten to breach inflation targets and complicate efforts to stimulate growth. Hog futures in Dalian have risen to their strongest in a year, while wholesale meat prices are at a six-month high.

Where have all the Gold Bugs departed to? Crypto? really?

 

Quick Overview is up to date

For the first time in history, the USA supplied more gas to the EU than Russia did.

The personhood moment

(Credit: @Patbagley)

Performance year to date and month to date

Notes today:

• The FedSoc 6 “extreme ” Supremes harshly curtailed the authority of the EPA to regulate greenhouse-gas emissions that cause climate change. In its 6-3 ruling, the "head in sand 6" sided with Republican states and fossil-fuel companies in gutting of the Clean Air Act. And so the right to a livable planet,” goes farther and farther out the window.
• Ah, but her emails.
  
  Meanwhile..
• The highest temperature recorded in Europe north of 70°N in June. The heat is unprecedented in this part of Norway in June.
• Unprecedented heat in Central Asia right now.

• The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Federal Reserve uses for its inflation target, rose 0.6% MoM and was up 6.3% since May 2021. The core PCE price index increased 0.3%, less than expected. It was up 4.7% YoY, the smallest gain since November. 

• Analysts forecast that US auto sales will be down more than 20% in the second quarter from a year ago as car buyers find it harder to stomach the sticker shock

• Wheat / Corn /Beans / ended  lower. Most commodities were lower on concern World Central Bank leaders will continue to fight Inflation. 

• Global business cycle starts to turn down

Intercepted Call: Russian generals duping mothers:

Russian generals enjoy a new business in the army – they’re taking money from parents to transfer soldiers to safer locations, then dumping them. 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

• Finland and Sweden took a major step on their way to NATO membership after Turkey dropped its opposition to their bids, all but ensuring the military alliance’s expansion on Russia’s doorstep. 

• Cassidy Hutchinson gave the most damning January 6 testimony yet in a House committee’s hearings on how the United States of America was attacked by its own president. 

• The Bank of Japan is under growing pressure to stabilize the yen as it sinks to a 24-year low and ought to abandon its 0.25% cap on benchmark bond yields. 

• Investors are on a real estate bargain hunt in Japan, fueled by the historic weakness of the yen. 

• Industrial production in Japan declined by 7.2 percent month-over-month in May. 
• Germany's Consumer price inflation unexpectedly eased to 7.6% in June from 7.9 % in May
• Germany's import prices have eased to 30.6% YoY in May from 31.7% in April  in a sign that inflation may have peaked.

• Brexit is making it harder for UK suppliers to get good caviar 😢

 

Later

Notes today:

• Putin is “scraping the bottom of the barrel”.

After losing top generals and commanders in the war with Ukraine, Putin calls General Pavel out of retirement to lead the Russian invasion. He weighs nearly 300 pounds.

• Intercepted Call: “They just threw us in like f*cking meat.”

• Russia Is Hours Away From Its First Foreign Default in a Century

After months of teetering on the edge of default, Russia is now just hours away from a dramatic moment in the financial battle that the US and others have waged against the Kremlin over its invasion of Ukraine.

Quick Overview is up to date

A ban on new gold imports from Russia

London has been one of the most important destinations for Russian precious metals: the $15 billion in Russian gold that arrived there last year made up 28% of UK gold imports, according to UN Comtrade data.

Confidence in the "extreme supreme" court

I don’t think today’s  decision will help.

In technical terms this is what’s called a "downside" breakout or breakdown. 

Or,  “fell out of bed”.

In addition - Bloomberg: In an extremely important church-and-state decision, the Supreme Court has held that if the state of Maine decides to pay for a child’s private education in lieu of a public one, it must allow its tuition money to be used at religious schools. The 6-3 decision, Carson v. Makin, profoundly undermines existing First Amendment law.

It represents the end of the centuries-old constitutional ban on direct state aid to the teaching of religion. And remarkably, it does all this in the name of religious liberty, giving the free-exercise clause of the First Amendment primacy over the establishment clause found in the exact same amendment.

FT: UK consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since records began almost 50 years ago as inflation soars 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today: 

• JUST IN: American confidence in Supreme Court sinks to lowest level ever recorded by Gallup

• US banks pass latest round of Fed stress tests in sign of financial health (FT)

• And now officially: Ukraine is a candidate for membership of the European Union -  and so is Moldova.

• Brazil's 13.25% benchmark rate has boosted the appeal of its corporate bonds.

• Mexico’s central bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%. 

• Copper miners not doing so well  - 6% today

• FDA bans Juul products from US market in big blow to e-cigarette maker, citing a youth vaping epidemic and concerns over potentially harmful chemicals leaching from its liquid pods. 

• Intel warns Ohio factory could be delayed because Congress is dragging its feet on funding.

Hoping to sell before the price goes down..

U.S. extreme Supreme Court expands gun rights, strikes down New York law. Whatever happened to the well-regulated militia?

A collective rights theory of the Second Amendment asserts that citizens do not have an individual right to possess guns and that local, state, and federal legislative bodies therefore possess the authority to regulate firearms without implicating a constitutional right.

An so - JUST IN: American confidence in Supreme Court sinks to lowest level ever recorded by Gallup

Global average liveability score

Vienna tops the ranking for the third time since 2018

Notes today: 

• Inflationary pressures are rising in Japan after a long hiatus.
• Japan's consumer prices rose by 2.5% YoY in April 2022, the most since October 2014.  Core consumer prices rose 2.1% YoY, and beating the BoJ’s 2% target for the first time in seven years. 

• The possibility of Japan intervening directly in currencymarkets to stem the yen’s slide can’t be ruled out, according to Takehiko Nakao, former head of foreign exchange policy at the finance ministry.
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Quick Overview is up to date

 Latest from Artist: @mluckovichajc)

Looks like what was saved in 2020 is now rapidly going out the door..

Notes today:

 

• The Japanese yen depreciated to its lowest level against the dollar in over two decades. BoJ's Total assets have swelled to 137% of GDP - and leading the global race to print money
• From the BOJ minutes says from the members that the groups policy is not aimed at controlling FX rates. No kidding.
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• ProShares has publicly launched the first short bitcoin-linked ETF in the US. The ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE Arca: BITI) 

• Goldman Sachs: 'We now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded'. 

• The Supreme Court is bulldozing the Wall of Separation. In a ruling just handed down, the Court’s extremely conservative supermajority ruled that taxpayers can be forced to fund religious education. 

• "We've got lots of theories. We just don't have any evidence." -Rudy Giuliani 

• Argentina’s central bank lifted its benchmark interest rate for the 6th time this year to 52% as the government struggles to cool inflation expectations. 

• Colombia 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to a 13-1/2-year high of 11.919% 

• Microsoft curbs its facial recognition platforms in the name of privacy and security. (lip service)

• The Philippine peso slumps to its lowest level in more than 16 years 

 

 

How much the S&P 500 fell during each recession

The Centuries-Old Financial System Better Than DeFi

Hawala is based on trust, while decentralized crypto lending is doomed by blockchain anonymity.

Of the $252 billion of investor funds tied up in DeFi protocols last December, less than $75 billion remain. 

What a remarkable collapse. And despite some forecasts – never went below zero. (was probably one of the lowest risk trades ever)