Notes today:

• Finland and Sweden took a major step on their way to NATO membership after Turkey dropped its opposition to their bids, all but ensuring the military alliance’s expansion on Russia’s doorstep. 

• Cassidy Hutchinson gave the most damning January 6 testimony yet in a House committee’s hearings on how the United States of America was attacked by its own president. 

• The Bank of Japan is under growing pressure to stabilize the yen as it sinks to a 24-year low and ought to abandon its 0.25% cap on benchmark bond yields. 

• Investors are on a real estate bargain hunt in Japan, fueled by the historic weakness of the yen. 

• Industrial production in Japan declined by 7.2 percent month-over-month in May. 
• Germany's Consumer price inflation unexpectedly eased to 7.6% in June from 7.9 % in May
• Germany's import prices have eased to 30.6% YoY in May from 31.7% in April  in a sign that inflation may have peaked.

• Brexit is making it harder for UK suppliers to get good caviar 😢

 

Later

Notes today:

• Putin is “scraping the bottom of the barrel”.

After losing top generals and commanders in the war with Ukraine, Putin calls General Pavel out of retirement to lead the Russian invasion. He weighs nearly 300 pounds.

• Intercepted Call: “They just threw us in like f*cking meat.”

• Russia Is Hours Away From Its First Foreign Default in a Century

After months of teetering on the edge of default, Russia is now just hours away from a dramatic moment in the financial battle that the US and others have waged against the Kremlin over its invasion of Ukraine.

Quick Overview is up to date

A ban on new gold imports from Russia

London has been one of the most important destinations for Russian precious metals: the $15 billion in Russian gold that arrived there last year made up 28% of UK gold imports, according to UN Comtrade data.

Confidence in the "extreme supreme" court

I don’t think today’s  decision will help.

In technical terms this is what’s called a "downside" breakout or breakdown. 

Or,  “fell out of bed”.

In addition - Bloomberg: In an extremely important church-and-state decision, the Supreme Court has held that if the state of Maine decides to pay for a child’s private education in lieu of a public one, it must allow its tuition money to be used at religious schools. The 6-3 decision, Carson v. Makin, profoundly undermines existing First Amendment law.

It represents the end of the centuries-old constitutional ban on direct state aid to the teaching of religion. And remarkably, it does all this in the name of religious liberty, giving the free-exercise clause of the First Amendment primacy over the establishment clause found in the exact same amendment.

FT: UK consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since records began almost 50 years ago as inflation soars 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today: 

• JUST IN: American confidence in Supreme Court sinks to lowest level ever recorded by Gallup

• US banks pass latest round of Fed stress tests in sign of financial health (FT)

• And now officially: Ukraine is a candidate for membership of the European Union -  and so is Moldova.

• Brazil's 13.25% benchmark rate has boosted the appeal of its corporate bonds.

• Mexico’s central bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%. 

• Copper miners not doing so well  - 6% today

• FDA bans Juul products from US market in big blow to e-cigarette maker, citing a youth vaping epidemic and concerns over potentially harmful chemicals leaching from its liquid pods. 

• Intel warns Ohio factory could be delayed because Congress is dragging its feet on funding.

Hoping to sell before the price goes down..

U.S. extreme Supreme Court expands gun rights, strikes down New York law. Whatever happened to the well-regulated militia?

A collective rights theory of the Second Amendment asserts that citizens do not have an individual right to possess guns and that local, state, and federal legislative bodies therefore possess the authority to regulate firearms without implicating a constitutional right.

An so - JUST IN: American confidence in Supreme Court sinks to lowest level ever recorded by Gallup

Global average liveability score

Vienna tops the ranking for the third time since 2018

Notes today: 

• Inflationary pressures are rising in Japan after a long hiatus.
• Japan's consumer prices rose by 2.5% YoY in April 2022, the most since October 2014.  Core consumer prices rose 2.1% YoY, and beating the BoJ’s 2% target for the first time in seven years. 

• The possibility of Japan intervening directly in currencymarkets to stem the yen’s slide can’t be ruled out, according to Takehiko Nakao, former head of foreign exchange policy at the finance ministry.
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Quick Overview is up to date

 Latest from Artist: @mluckovichajc)

Looks like what was saved in 2020 is now rapidly going out the door..

Notes today:

 

• The Japanese yen depreciated to its lowest level against the dollar in over two decades. BoJ's Total assets have swelled to 137% of GDP - and leading the global race to print money
• From the BOJ minutes says from the members that the groups policy is not aimed at controlling FX rates. No kidding.
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• ProShares has publicly launched the first short bitcoin-linked ETF in the US. The ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE Arca: BITI) 

• Goldman Sachs: 'We now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded'. 

• The Supreme Court is bulldozing the Wall of Separation. In a ruling just handed down, the Court’s extremely conservative supermajority ruled that taxpayers can be forced to fund religious education. 

• "We've got lots of theories. We just don't have any evidence." -Rudy Giuliani 

• Argentina’s central bank lifted its benchmark interest rate for the 6th time this year to 52% as the government struggles to cool inflation expectations. 

• Colombia 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to a 13-1/2-year high of 11.919% 

• Microsoft curbs its facial recognition platforms in the name of privacy and security. (lip service)

• The Philippine peso slumps to its lowest level in more than 16 years 

 

 

How much the S&P 500 fell during each recession

The Centuries-Old Financial System Better Than DeFi

Hawala is based on trust, while decentralized crypto lending is doomed by blockchain anonymity.

Of the $252 billion of investor funds tied up in DeFi protocols last December, less than $75 billion remain. 

What a remarkable collapse. And despite some forecasts – never went below zero. (was probably one of the lowest risk trades ever)

With investors worldwide looking at a $1.5 trillion in recent cryptocurrencylosses, a blizzard of class-action lawsuits are being prepared. 

• Obviously, expensive digital images of monkeys are going to improve the world immensely. So said a smirking Bill Gates..

• Put your money into something hot and hope it goes big. It’s the American way.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

This must be the quickest mortgage rate climb in history.

 

Trump not looking very healthy these days.

Colorado River turning point

The federal Bureau of Reclamation issued an ultimatum at a meeting with Colorado Basin state officials this week: either figure out how to conserve at least 2-million-acre feet of water in the next 60 days or we’ll do it for you.

25 million people downstream. 

Quick Overview is up to date

Mike Lindell the pillow dude announces tonight that Wal Mart has informed him it will join other retailers and no longer sell his products.

Notes today:

 

• The Federal Reserve's statement on the biggest interest rate hike since 1994, in full.. 

• Russian opposition leader and prominent Putin critic Alexey Navalny has been transferred from a penal colony outside Moscow to a high-security prison with a reputation for abuse and torture.

• The impact of a major storm in the golf this year will be more extreme than usual – worldwide. All five operational liquified natural gas export terminals are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast between Corpus Christi in Texas and Lake Charles in Louisiana — potentially putting them in the path of hurricanes. 

• An estimated 25% of home listings cut their asking prices. 

• SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said that the recent crash in prices for crypto has underscored the need to better regulate the digital-asset industry – no kidding, who would have thought.

• Jan. 6th committee has emails from Justice  Thomas' wife Ginni to Trump attorney John Eastman — verifying that her efforts to overturn the election were far more extensive than previously known.

• (Reuters) - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday released new warnings for synthetic pollutants in drinking water known as "forever chemicals" saying the toxins can still be harmful even at levels so low they are not detectable.

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The FED has never been this far behind inflation – never! chart

In inflationary times the green line needs to be mostly ABOVE the red line.

So, according to the chart, Fed Funds need to get into the neighborhood of 9%. Now wouldn’t that be fun..

Rediscovered antique fear / greed chart

Quick Overview is up to date 

Japan's inflation looks (to me) as though it is ready to break out. 

Notes today:

• Russian soldiers forced to eat dogs due to poor provisions supplies

• The FOMC is expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday. 

• Erdogan to talk to Putin, on grain exports next week. And according to Erdogan they want to discuss unblocking grain exports from Ukrainian seaports. Currently, some 25 million tons of grain are being blocked by Russian militaries in Ukraine. 

• Some sort of temporary agreement may have been reached by a bipartisan coalition of US senators on gun safety, mental health, and school safety provisions. (Not much, but every little bit helps the old lady said as she peed in the ocean)

America’s Inequality Problem Just Improved for the First Time in a Generation

Notes today 

• Mariupol mayor: Russia demolished 1,300 high-rise buildings in city without removing dead bodies of residents.

• THOMPSON & CHENEY OPENING STATEMENTS AT SELECT COMMITTEE HEARING  (The radical right seems quite upset that so many (20 Million) Americans watched the primetime January 6th hearings)

• Goldman Sachs says energy prices are not high enough to curb demand. 

• Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have powerful new medicines for weight loss. Wall Street predicts massive sales. 

• US Real Estate: mortgage holders gained $2.8 trillion in tappable equity over the past 12 months - a 34% increase that equates to more than $207,000 in equity available per borrower. 

• Sixty percent of housing experts polled by Zillow don’t believe the housing market is in a bubble, compared to 32% who do. 

• The median monthly asking rent in the U.S. exceeded $2K for the first time in May, rising 15% Y/Y to $2,002, Redfin said. 

• Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63 The heavy weapon crisis in Ukraine has reached a critical juncture. The UK and Poland are going above and beyond. Scholz is delaying and lying. The US still won't make its war goals clear and is sending less than promised and much less than Ukraine needs. 

• Tesla investigation deepens after more than a dozen US ‘Autopilot’ crashes 

• Ginni Thomas (wife of Supreme ClarenceThomas) pressured a staggering 29 Republican lawmakers in Arizona to overturn the 2020 election,

US Consumer confidence falls to the lowest level on record

Inflation (40 year high)12 month % changes selected categories

Quick Overview is up to date

Lumber  month-to-date is down 12.% and year-to-date it's down 38.%

Yen approaching millennium low

OR

Notes today:

 

• The U.S. Dept. of HomelandSecurity warned on Tuesday that people in online forums known for hosting violent extremist content are lauding the mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas—and are pushing others to commit further attacks. 

• Russia Destroys Second Largest Grain Terminal In Ukraine. 

• The World Bank cut its forecast for global economic expansion in 2022 further, warning that several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth lie ahead, with the pain of stagflation potentially lasting for several years. 

• Economist: Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor from 2005 to 2021, defended her record of dealing with Vladimir Putin. Mrs Merkel has been criticised for pressing ahead with the now-mothballed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline meant to link Germany and Russia—but trade with Russia “could not be ignored”, she said. She defended her opposition to a plan from 2008 to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, which, she said, would have been tantamount to a “declaration of war”.
• There are countries we are waiting for delivery from and countries we are tired of waiting for,”Germany belongs to the second group.” - Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba 

• WhatsApp has until July to show that a privacy policy update introduced in January complies with EU consumer law, the European Commission said on Wednesday, in a case prompted by complaints from consumer bodies across Europe.

• Southern has now become the third-largest greenhouse gas polluter in the US due to its fleet of coal and gas-burning power plants, and until relatively recently was still denying the science behind global temperature rise.