Notes Today: 

• Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion. 

• In the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance, Russia appeared to scale back its war ambitions, its defense ministry saying that the first stage of its mission had “generally been accomplished”. 

• The International Monetary Fund approved a $45bn debt restructuring program for Argentina after more than a year of negotiations. 

• Ice Shelf About the Size of Los Angeles Collapses in Antarctica

• JohnAuthers: I’ve learned since Feb. 24that I’m not a military expert, a refreshing change after two years of learning how little I knew about epidemiology. Like the pandemic before it, the war in Ukraine is a great reminder to investors and everyone else of the virtues of humility, and recognizing what you don’t know.

Russian Basic Goods

• reuters.com India is considering restrictions on sugar exports for the first time in six years and may cap exports at around 8 million tonnes in an effort to prevent domestic prices surging #sugar 

Sugar in the lead..

Quick Overview is up to date

Look out Russia!

All wheat US planted acreage:

Chart of interest: Soy  / Corn Ratio

Chart of interest: wheat

 Chart of interest: Soybeans

 Chart of interest: Corn

Chart of interest: Canadian $

 Utopia Street  Art

Quick Overview is up to date 

Notes Today:

 

• From a Telegram channel: "Vladimir Putin's general mental state has recently caused alarm among people who can be attributed to the president's inner circle. Putin is in a depressed state, often breaks down on loved ones and withdraws into himself. 

• The U.S. Treasury sanctions African Gold Refinery, one of the continent’s biggest processors of the metal, for allegedly contributing to conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo. 

• Stocks in Mexico hit all time high

• US existing home sales at 6-month low

• South Carolina prisons gives green light to carry out executions by firing squad. 

• Nestle refuses to withdraw from Russia even after a desperate plea from Ukraine’s prime minister. 

• The coldest location on the planet has experienced an episode of warm weather this week unlike any ever observed, with temperatures over the eastern Antarctic ice sheet soaring 50 to 90 degrees above normal. (WP) 

• Remember when former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said: "Do you think Americans care about fucking Ukraine"? 

• U.S. House of Representatives voted 424-8 to permanently reauthorize the Global Magnitsky Act. The following reps voted against: Andy Biggs, Dan Bishop, Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Glenn Grothman, Thomas Massie and Chip Roy.

A man was seated next to a kid ..

Commodity Traders Make Record Profits — And Now Want a Bailout

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Happy St. Patrick’s Day 

Diageo

Brekshire  Hathaway at $518,438 per share - remarkable!

Notes today: 

• Because of the war in Ukraine, the American biopharmaceutical company AbbVie has suspended the supply of Botox and fillers to Russia - the most popular products in Russian aesthetic medicine. Oligarch’s wife’s AND Mistresses will be seriously upset. 
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• Move over, real estate. Used-car prices are rising so quickly that some consumers are selling their vehicles for a tidy profit (Bloomberg)

• Russia Ally Uzbekistan Rebukes Ukraine Invasion, Won’t Recognize Moscow-Backed Separatist States.

• The U.S. House has voted to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus.

 

Notes today:

 

•  Biden Calls Putin "A War Criminal" and is approving armed drones for Ukraine

• Fed raises rates a quarter point and signals more hikes ahead.

• When Russia sanctioned Canada, it barred leaders from all major federal parties, including conservative leaders. But when Russia sanctioned the U.S., it barred Democratic leaders only. It didn’t name a single GOP leader. The signal couldn’t be clearer. @GeorgeTakei 

• Hong Kong's Hang's Hang Seng index on pace for its best day since the financial crisis - gaining some 9%
• China's state council has just:
• *Pledged to keep capital markets stable
• *Vowed to support overseas stock listings
• *Said dialogue with US re ADRs is 'good'
• *Promised to handle risks for property developers
• *Clarified regulation of Big Tech will end 'soon'

Still supporting Russia ??

• Some of the Russian Yachts confiscated so far..
• Lady M superyacht, owned by Russian billionaire Alexey Mordashov, at the port in Imperia, Italy, on March 7.
• The yacht Lena, belonging to Gennady Timchenko, an oligarch close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, in the port of San Remo on the Italian Riviera on March 5.
• The SY A yacht, owned by Russian billionaire Andrey Melnichenko
• Authorities in Spain seized Sergei Chemezov's Valerie, a 279-foot superyacht that had been moored in Barcelona.
• Amore Vero, a yacht owned by a company linked to Igor Sechin, the CEO of the Russian energy giant Rosneft, in a shipyard in La Ciotat in southern France on March 3.
• For Life party Viktor Medvedchuk’s yacht, Royal Romance, was seized in Croatia on March 16 following sanctions imposed amid Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.

Russian c.bank halts purchases of gold from banks to meet household demand

(Reuters) - The Russian central bank said it will suspend the buying of gold from banks from Tuesday to meet increased demand for the precious metal from households, its latest attempt to weather the storm on Russian markets in the face of Western sanctions.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index posted this month its biggest weekly increase in data going back to 1960, up more than 13%

Notes today:

• US Senate unanimously passes resolution declaring Putin a war criminal

• Blinken: There will be an independent Ukraine "a lot longer than there's going to be a Vladimir Putin."

• Tail risk? Russia may soon default on $150bn of foreign currency debt. 
• Bond payments on Wednesday.  
• Its currency has collapsed, and its debt is junk!

No words.

• Russian prosecutors call for Alexei Navalny to serve 13 years in prison  Bill Browder  @Billbrowder   Phone bill data of Judge who is deciding whether Alexei Navalny should receive 13 years shows she received seven calls from the Kremlin during the trial.

• Nickel trading will resume on the LME on Wednesday morning

• China is scrambling to contain its worst outbreak of Covid-19 since the pandemic began.

  
  

China’s Market Meltdown Has Traders Rushing to Buy Protection 

FT: Investors in Taiwan seek to hedge against risk of conflict with China

Living in states run by a Republican governor is dangerous to your health.

..the 14 states with the highest death rates were all run by Republican governors.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Putin’s State Media News Is Interrupted: ‘They’re Lying to You’

Notes today: 

• Bill Browder: "Putin doesn’t keep any money in his own name, he uses people he trusts" 

• U.S. Sewer Data Warns of a New Bump in Covid Cases After Lull 

• The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has suspended the license of dozens of Russian airlines, including Aeroflot, S7, Ural, Azur, and others. 
• Putin signed a law today that will make it possible for Russia to nationalize the 500+ airplanes that Western leasing companies have demanded to be returned to them. The planes are worth more than USD 10 billion. Doing business with Russia..

• Among the assistance Russia has requested from China is food for troops. Specifically, the non-perishable military food kits known as MREs. The request underscores the basic logistical challenges Russia is facing.
• It appears to be logistic and CORRUPTION: while Russian soldiers are starving and breaking into Ukrainian's homes begging for bread, Prigozhin's "not for sale" military food rations have flooded Russia's ebay-like sites at $3 a can. Corruption is destroying Russia - and as @AricToler says, might just save Ukraine..

Traders are saying no to Russian oil

Nickel, the devil’s metal with a history of bad behaviour (save your nickel's 😉)

It’s a truly shocking outcome but not without precedent.

When German miners first discovered nickel in the fifteenth century, they called it Kupfernickel, or “Old Nick’s Copper”, and it has had a history of devilish behaviour ever since the LME launched the contract in 1979.

The underlying cause of the repeated market disorder has never changed.

Inside the 18 Minutes of Trading Chaos That Broke the Nickel Market

Read the above article and perhaps check out glncy

Notes today:

 

• MW: Russian prosecutors threaten to arrest execs of Western companies, seize assets..

• Gold Dealers Swamped by Demand as War Creates Inflation Scare

• The new Covid lockdowns in Shenzhen are going to have seriously bad consequences..

• MW: Bermuda’s aviation regulator has suspended the airworthiness certificates of all Russia-operated aircraft on its registry, a crucial requirement for their continued flying under international agreements. Bermuda is the largest register of Russian planes, followed by Cyprus and Ireland.

• IMF Head Says Russian Default No Longer an ‘Improbable Event’

• U.S. says Russia asked Beijing for military aid. 

• Argentina:  Exports of soybean oil & soybean meal suspended? 

• French activist broke into the villa of Putin's daughter Catherine Tikhonova in Biarritz France, changed the locks in the house and invited refugees from Ukraine.

Save your Nickel's - Metal Value of one US Nickel

Gone Fishing

Notes Today:

• Toyota has no plans to leave the Russian market and close its plant.

• Owners Fear Planes ‘Are Gone Forever’ After Russia Shields Them From Seizure

• Amazon intends to boost its outstanding shares by a 20-to-1 ratio, under a plan disclosed late Wednesday. (makes selling covered puts more accessible – about time)

• Providers of virtual private networks, or VPNs, are recording a surge in usage from Russia after the Kremlin cracked down on Facebook and other services as part of a broader effort to silence dissent and limit information about its invasion of Ukraine.

• Germany's benchmark index Dax gains more than 1,000 points for 1st time ever in historic move on hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine war.

• Fitch downgrades Russia’s credit rating and says default is ‘imminent’

• WP: Chernobyl nuclear plant disconnected from power grid, creating an ‘extremely dangerous situation’

 

AT&T breaks pledge, directly donates to Republican objectors Almost immediately, AT&T began creating loopholes to this commitment and started funneling money indirectly to Republican objectors. A little more than a year later, according to new FEC filings, the company has dropped all pretenses.

Autocracy Is a Bad Investment

Russia, China highlight the need to consider 'regime risk.'

Investors were quite undeterred by the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi or Chinas treatment of the Uyghurs etc. -  Russia however  is quite the wake-up call.

 And Palm Oil is marching along

 

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