Notes today:

 

•  Biden Calls Putin "A War Criminal" and is approving armed drones for Ukraine

• Fed raises rates a quarter point and signals more hikes ahead.

• When Russia sanctioned Canada, it barred leaders from all major federal parties, including conservative leaders. But when Russia sanctioned the U.S., it barred Democratic leaders only. It didn’t name a single GOP leader. The signal couldn’t be clearer. @GeorgeTakei 

• Hong Kong's Hang's Hang Seng index on pace for its best day since the financial crisis - gaining some 9%
• China's state council has just:
• *Pledged to keep capital markets stable
• *Vowed to support overseas stock listings
• *Said dialogue with US re ADRs is 'good'
• *Promised to handle risks for property developers
• *Clarified regulation of Big Tech will end 'soon'

Still supporting Russia ??

• Some of the Russian Yachts confiscated so far..
• Lady M superyacht, owned by Russian billionaire Alexey Mordashov, at the port in Imperia, Italy, on March 7.
• The yacht Lena, belonging to Gennady Timchenko, an oligarch close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, in the port of San Remo on the Italian Riviera on March 5.
• The SY A yacht, owned by Russian billionaire Andrey Melnichenko
• Authorities in Spain seized Sergei Chemezov's Valerie, a 279-foot superyacht that had been moored in Barcelona.
• Amore Vero, a yacht owned by a company linked to Igor Sechin, the CEO of the Russian energy giant Rosneft, in a shipyard in La Ciotat in southern France on March 3.
• For Life party Viktor Medvedchuk’s yacht, Royal Romance, was seized in Croatia on March 16 following sanctions imposed amid Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.

Russian c.bank halts purchases of gold from banks to meet household demand

(Reuters) - The Russian central bank said it will suspend the buying of gold from banks from Tuesday to meet increased demand for the precious metal from households, its latest attempt to weather the storm on Russian markets in the face of Western sanctions.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index posted this month its biggest weekly increase in data going back to 1960, up more than 13%

Notes today:

• US Senate unanimously passes resolution declaring Putin a war criminal

• Blinken: There will be an independent Ukraine "a lot longer than there's going to be a Vladimir Putin."

• Tail risk? Russia may soon default on $150bn of foreign currency debt. 
• Bond payments on Wednesday.  
• Its currency has collapsed, and its debt is junk!

No words.

• Russian prosecutors call for Alexei Navalny to serve 13 years in prison  Bill Browder  @Billbrowder   Phone bill data of Judge who is deciding whether Alexei Navalny should receive 13 years shows she received seven calls from the Kremlin during the trial.

• Nickel trading will resume on the LME on Wednesday morning

• China is scrambling to contain its worst outbreak of Covid-19 since the pandemic began.

  
  

China’s Market Meltdown Has Traders Rushing to Buy Protection 

FT: Investors in Taiwan seek to hedge against risk of conflict with China

Living in states run by a Republican governor is dangerous to your health.

..the 14 states with the highest death rates were all run by Republican governors.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Putin’s State Media News Is Interrupted: ‘They’re Lying to You’

Notes today: 

• Bill Browder: "Putin doesn’t keep any money in his own name, he uses people he trusts" 

• U.S. Sewer Data Warns of a New Bump in Covid Cases After Lull 

• The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has suspended the license of dozens of Russian airlines, including Aeroflot, S7, Ural, Azur, and others. 
• Putin signed a law today that will make it possible for Russia to nationalize the 500+ airplanes that Western leasing companies have demanded to be returned to them. The planes are worth more than USD 10 billion. Doing business with Russia..

• Among the assistance Russia has requested from China is food for troops. Specifically, the non-perishable military food kits known as MREs. The request underscores the basic logistical challenges Russia is facing.
• It appears to be logistic and CORRUPTION: while Russian soldiers are starving and breaking into Ukrainian's homes begging for bread, Prigozhin's "not for sale" military food rations have flooded Russia's ebay-like sites at $3 a can. Corruption is destroying Russia - and as @AricToler says, might just save Ukraine..

Traders are saying no to Russian oil

Nickel, the devil’s metal with a history of bad behaviour (save your nickel's 😉)

It’s a truly shocking outcome but not without precedent.

When German miners first discovered nickel in the fifteenth century, they called it Kupfernickel, or “Old Nick’s Copper”, and it has had a history of devilish behaviour ever since the LME launched the contract in 1979.

The underlying cause of the repeated market disorder has never changed.

Inside the 18 Minutes of Trading Chaos That Broke the Nickel Market

Read the above article and perhaps check out glncy

Notes today:

 

• MW: Russian prosecutors threaten to arrest execs of Western companies, seize assets..

• Gold Dealers Swamped by Demand as War Creates Inflation Scare

• The new Covid lockdowns in Shenzhen are going to have seriously bad consequences..

• MW: Bermuda’s aviation regulator has suspended the airworthiness certificates of all Russia-operated aircraft on its registry, a crucial requirement for their continued flying under international agreements. Bermuda is the largest register of Russian planes, followed by Cyprus and Ireland.

• IMF Head Says Russian Default No Longer an ‘Improbable Event’

• U.S. says Russia asked Beijing for military aid. 

• Argentina:  Exports of soybean oil & soybean meal suspended? 

• French activist broke into the villa of Putin's daughter Catherine Tikhonova in Biarritz France, changed the locks in the house and invited refugees from Ukraine.

Save your Nickel's - Metal Value of one US Nickel

Gone Fishing

Notes Today:

• Toyota has no plans to leave the Russian market and close its plant.

• Owners Fear Planes ‘Are Gone Forever’ After Russia Shields Them From Seizure

• Amazon intends to boost its outstanding shares by a 20-to-1 ratio, under a plan disclosed late Wednesday. (makes selling covered puts more accessible – about time)

• Providers of virtual private networks, or VPNs, are recording a surge in usage from Russia after the Kremlin cracked down on Facebook and other services as part of a broader effort to silence dissent and limit information about its invasion of Ukraine.

• Germany's benchmark index Dax gains more than 1,000 points for 1st time ever in historic move on hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine war.

• Fitch downgrades Russia’s credit rating and says default is ‘imminent’

• WP: Chernobyl nuclear plant disconnected from power grid, creating an ‘extremely dangerous situation’

 

AT&T breaks pledge, directly donates to Republican objectors Almost immediately, AT&T began creating loopholes to this commitment and started funneling money indirectly to Republican objectors. A little more than a year later, according to new FEC filings, the company has dropped all pretenses.

Autocracy Is a Bad Investment

Russia, China highlight the need to consider 'regime risk.'

Investors were quite undeterred by the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi or Chinas treatment of the Uyghurs etc. -  Russia however  is quite the wake-up call.

 And Palm Oil is marching along

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 Nickel Price

Notes Today:

• Putin’s propaganda master arrested in NY: Dual U.S. / Russian National Charged With Acting Illegally As A Russian Agent In The United States | USAO-SDNY | Department of Justice justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/d…

• Putin banning commodities exports to the US and its allies. The list of commodities & countries is to be published within 2 days. 
• Wheat bouncing all over the place..

• Poland to supply MiG planes to Ukraine

• The president of the European Parliament: "Putin does not equal Russia. For us, Russia is that of Navalny, Nemtsov and Magnitsky."

• 10 degrees F above normal is Siberia this past month.

• Ferrari and Lamborghini suspend production of cars for Russia – now that will really hurt.

• 800 McDonalds closing in Russia

• L'Oreal will temporarily close its offline and online stores in Russia

Russian joke of the day: Every time our Pinocchio lies, his table gets longer

The U.S. considers banning imports of Russian oil.

Given the atrocities being committed against Ukraine it is hard to see such actions not being imposed.

 Price Of Coal

Narcissism in a Nuclear World

Evolution has programmed narcissists to go only so far.

As destructive as narcissism is in almost all cases, there are some upsides to its existence. Indeed, the field of evolutionary psychology dictates that if narcissism had not produced some survival and reproduction advantages to our ancestors, it would have been weeded out by natural selection long ago. While not excusing or diminishing the abomination of bloodshed caused by narcissists, in our nuclear era one comfort we can take is that their traits may at least prevent an all-out world war from erupting.

Notes Today:

 

• 
  

• Wheat is up 7% and Crude is up 6%

• Hacking group Anonymous interrupts Russian state TV programs with footage of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and an anti-war message.
• It claims to have accessed TV channels “Russia 24”, “Channel 1”, “Moscow 24”, & streaming services Wink and Ivi

• Antony Blinken: The U.S. has given the “green light” to NATO countries if they choose to provide fighter jets to #Ukraine️.

• American Express suspends all operations in Russia

• TikTok: In light of Russia's new ‘fake news’ law, we have no choice but to suspend livestreaming and new content to our video service while we review the safety implications of this law. Our in-app messaging service will not be affected. 

• The Danish Prime Minister and a coalition of parties just announced that... The country will make itself independent from Russian gas. Defense spendings will be increased to 2 % of GDP. 

• Rosneft failed to make its $2 billion bond repayment today, while Gazprom is due to make similar payments tomorrow in the amount of $1.3 billion

Definition of Tyranny...(KAL)

Artist: @adamzyglis

Notes Today:

•  When reason prevails in Russia, Putin is lost.

• Visa and Mastercard will both suspend operations in Russia (Guardian) 

• It’s sickening to see how one deranged man can cause so much pain and suffering—and to think how many Americans empowered him with their adoration. @StevenBeschloss

•            The Kyiv Independent  @KyivIndependent⚡️Mariupol Mayor: Russia blockades city, denies humanitarian corridor. According to Mayor Vadym Boychenko, the city has been left without water and electricity, while 400,000 city residents are held hostage by the Russians.

Heating Oil

 NYSE Volume Advance Decline Line

 NYSE Advace  Decline Line

Copper Point & Figure Chart

Wheat in 3 charts: Ukraine War continues to add risk premium to World wheat prices. There remains concern that 12-14 mmt of Russia wheat and 5 mmt of EU wheat may not get shipped. Reuters: 

• Reuters: China's ag minister says winter wheat condition could be worst in history.

Wheat long term 

Wheat CPI adjusted

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today:

 

• Reuters: China's ag minister says winter wheat condition could be worst in history

• Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev says that Russia has resources left for the war until Sunday, after which they will collapse. 

• Microsoft suspends all new sales of Microsoft products and services in Russia. 

• Samsung suspends shipments of phones, chips to Russia. Samsung has more of Russia’s smartphone market than Apple (also suspended) 

• How about Coca Cola, McDonalds, Pepsi, Estee Lauder, Mondelez, Kimberly-Clark   etc., etc.! 

• Russia has banned Facebook / restrictions on Twitter.
• PayPal stops working in Russia

• The Metropolitan Opera, soprano Anna Netrebko will not be performing this year due to her support for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Met made several attempts to convince Netrebko, who has made statements critical of the war, to rebuke Putin but failed to persuade the singer.

And Putin's Ruble crashing right along

The end of the Putin delusion

 "A picture is worth a thousand words" 

"huddling" with officials..

 The Ruble crash continues

Notes Today: 

 

• Bank of Russia raises key rate to 20% from 9.5% in emergency measure.
• Russia bans foreign clients from selling their securities, effective immediately - TASS 
• Moscow  Stock Exchange won't open as scheduled..

• Reuters reports that the Bank of China's Singapore division has 'stopped financing deals involving Russian oil and Russian companies

• Rapid change in Germany! Decades of security policy changed in a day, and now seriously considering extension of nuclear power plants. 

• Swiss President Ignazio Cassis says it's "very probable" that Switzerland will follow the European Union on Monday in sanctioning Russia and freezing Russian assets.  

• EU shuts down airspace to Russia 

• BP to offload 20% stake in Rosneft 

• EU  imposes sanctions on Belarus, bans petroleum imports, sharing technologies. 

• Brazil’s Bolsonaro won’t condemn Putin.

• Russian Forex Reserves (Probably quite useless because of sanctions)

Where is Russia's Money?