Florida in the news again!

• The worse COVID conditions in Florida become, the more Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) balks at policies designed to help address the pandemic. 

• COVID cases are surging so much in Florida now that if Florida was a separate country the US would ban travel from it. (Robert Reich)

• Florida will take a stand against a federal judge's decision to side with the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. lawsuit challenging the state's vaccine passports ban, according to a spokeswoman for the Florida governor's DeSantis office.  

• If COVID could vote DeSantis would be Governor for life - and beyond!

Gold recovering nicely from a flash crash that had dropped the price by some $80 +

Argentina’s Soybean Super-Highway is Drying Up

Snaking its way through thousands of miles of South American rainforest and pampas and past sprawling soybean and corn farms, the Parana River is the main thoroughfare for Argentine commerce. Some 80% of the country’s crop exports flow through its muddy waters en route to the Atlantic Ocean.

(Reuters) - China has switched from driving global demand for major commodities to being a drag on growth, with July's customs data confirming the weakening trend for imports of crude oil, iron ore and copper.

Gold, checking out the recent lows on a slow Sunday afternoon...

I suppose the market is betting on early Fed taper.

Silver  does not seem to have liked  it BELOW the recent low - so far...

 US core inflation exeeding expectations  MoM...

BoA's view of  Emerging Markets vs S&P500

Sugar:

Brazil has been hit with an unusually harsh winter with temperatures dropping to freezing levels for several days, hurting crops from corn to coffee and sugar cane. The frost follows one of the country's worst droughts in decades.

Therefore, StoneX now sees the global 2021/22 sugar supply balance swinging to a deficit of 1 million tonnes, from a surplus of 1.7 million tonnes seen in May.

And Karim Salamon, Wilmar Sugar head of analysis, said that the widespread frosts will result in lower agricultural yields leading to a cane crush of around 490-500 million tons. Brazil's CS crushed 605 million tons last season.

Wheat:

The U.S. spring wheat harvest is expected to drop 41% from a year ago to the lowest production in 33 years, according to the USDA

Canada’s spring wheat crop is expected at between 16 and 20 million tons, well off last year’s 25.8 million

Minneapolis

 

Portland

Chicago

Kansas City

Notes today:

• There are about 31,000 new cases every day in the U.K., but that’s not stopping Boris Johnson from plowing full steam ahead with reopening. 

• China state media criticized video games as “spiritual opium,” ...  It seems that Beijing is worried about where the huge flows of hot money are going and is afraid it will create rival power centers. 

• Joe Biden set a goal for electric vehicles to make up half of all vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030, and Detroit automakers are taking it seriously.

• 
  
  July was the worst month for wildfires on record, as large areas in North America, Siberia, Africa and the Mediterranean continue to burn.

• Governor of State Leading Nation in Kids Hospitalized with Covid Fights to Ban School Mask Mandates

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has decided to sacrifice Florida’s children on the altar of personal freedom..

Swiss central bank owns record $162 billion of U.S. stocks

..the gnomes at work

Relatively minor meltdowns might destroy underwater cables and disrupt vital industries, scientists say, creating a cascade of economic misery.

I just kept thinking, they're all in the same places—all of these systems converge,” says social volcanologist Lara Mani, of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (imagine their water cooler chitchat) at the University of Cambridge, lead author on the new paper. “And that's terrifying. Why has no one mentioned this before?”

 Two-thirds of the job gain was in food services and bars.

U.S. Unemployment Rate 5.4

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today: 

• (Bloomberg) A huge melting event in Greenland and reports that an ocean system critical to global climate may soon stall were just two of the growing number of grim daily stories about accelerating global warming. 
• (Guardian) Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse.
• Facebook  failed to enforce its own rules to curb an oil and gas industry misinformation campaign over the climate crisis during last year’s presidential election, according to a new analysis released on Thursday.

• 
  
  (Bloomberg) But on Wall Street, the future looks bright. Goldman Sachs strategists lifted their outlook for the S&P 500 Index as robust earnings growth and low interest rates fuel optimism that stocks can continue rallying despite record high levels. 

• Cryptocurrencies are not yet a threat to the financial system, but the dangers are growing

• Since the late 1990s, the U.S. hasbeen partying and forgetting about tomorrow, cashing out its inheritance from 20th century investments. 

 

 

Meanwhile a Fact of the day: In 2004 a piece of gum spat out by Britney Spears, a former popstar, was auctioned on eBay for $14,000. Read the full article. (Economist)

 

•  (LAT) In a sign of the region’s worsening drought, state water officials announced Thursday the shutdown of a major hydroelectric power plant at Lake Oroville in Northern California, citing the lowest-ever recorded water level at the reservoir.

• Particularly hawkish Brazil Central Bank raises interest rates by 1% to 5.25%, the most in a session since 2003 on inflation fears. 

• Sea freight rates from Santos Brazil to China nearly tripled YoY, from US$ 28/mt a year ago to US$ 80/mt.

 

 

Later

Covid is remarkably efficient in finding vulnerabilities…

 Presidents and GDP growth:  As expected Trump is bringing up the rear.

Since I have no idea of what I speak this is for entertainment purposes only – as always!

In 1975 Brazil had a severe frost and coffee prices started to rise – reaching $3.399 in April 1977. 

In July of 2021 Brazil had another frost (severity to be determined) and coffee prices started to rise. Using the US CPI Index, the value of $3 in 1977 would be the equivalent of $15 today.

Coffee CPI adjusted

Coffee long term

Coffee recent

Coffee Point & Figure

 Bullish Advisors 

 Market Vane

Notes today:

• Per the SEC: China based companies will have to disclose more about their structure and contacts with the Chinese government before listing in the U.S. 

• Normally a container will go from the factory in Shanghai to Chicago in 35 days. Currently it takes up to 73 days – and then the container will go back usually empty. 

• “We have to protect our mind and body rather than go out there and do what the world wants us to do” Simone Biles 

• “In today’s world, economic access and full citizenship depend crucially on math and science literacy” Bob Moses 

• Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft had quarterly after-tax profits of $56.8bn, almost up 100% 

• Facebook (AKA the plague on humanity) reported 56% rise in 2^nd quarter revenues. 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today: 

•  (AP) — (Florida in the News "again"👎👎) Florida has reported 21,683 new cases of COVID-19, the state’s highest one-day total since the start of the pandemic, according to federal health data released Saturday.

  The state has become the new national epicenter for the virus, accounting for around a fifth of all new cases in the U.S.

• Oklahoma GOP likens vaccine mandates to persecution of Jews

• A nationwide eviction moratorium is set to expire Saturday night ..

• China's Manufacturing PMI 50.3 in July 2021, expected 50.8, previous 50.9

• Interesting (crummy) month end price action in coffee. Nevertheless, Brazil’s upcoming 2022/23 coffee output has noticeably been reduced by dryness and cold weather. 
• 
  
  
  
  
• Michael Beschloss @BeschlossDC “. . .just say that the election was corrupt + leave the rest to me. . .” — Translated from the original German

• California has mandated electrical wiring for EV chargers in its new-home building codes since 2015, the rest of the U.S. has no requirements.

• At the beginning of next year, California will begin enforcing an animal welfare proposition approved overwhelmingly by voters in 2018 that requires more space for breeding pigs, egg-laying chickens and veal calves.👍👍

Notes today:

• Florida in the news: And while the virus is rampaging again - Greenland is melting away. Greenland experienced 'massive' ice melt this week.

• July 30 (Reuters) - With climate change fueling high temperatures across the Arctic, Greenland lost a massive amount of ice on Wednesday with enough melting to cover the U.S. state of Florida in 2 inches (5.1 cm) of water, scientists said.

• Florida’s covid cases jumped 50% “THIS WEEK” with 110,000 new infections reported statewide. 

• So: Florida’s DeSantis held a news conference Friday morning and said “In Florida, there will be no lockdowns, there will be no school closures, there will be no restrictions and no mandates in the state of Florida,” 

• Jabs v jab-nots
  
  
  
  

• Jeff Bezos lost nearly $14 billion today..(Forbes)

Bloomberg: 

The news around the delta variant in the U.S. keeps getting worse, threatening progress toward any return to some semblance of normalcy. New data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest the variant is as infectious as chicken pox and that vaccinated adults can readily spread it. The study of an outbreak earlier this summer in Cape Cod where many of the infected had been vaccinated contributed to the recommendation that people mask up again. Adding to the nation’s woes: new data puts the CDC’s decision to stop comprehensively tracking so-called breakthrough cases—just as delta was emerging—under scrutiny. Here’s the latest on the pandemic. —Margaret Sutherlin

Bloomberg is tracking the progress of coronavirus vaccines while mapping the pandemic worldwide. 

Later

 Is Gold waking up?

Notes today: 

• China tries to ease market fears after Beijing’s education crackdown. Well, their stock indexes are on the brink of a bear market. (weekly chart)
  
  

• The Senate voted 67-32 to move forward on the bipartisan infrastructure package.

• U.S. equities rose and yields rose after the Fed held interest rates near zero and Powell said that despite the economy’s progress, he was still “a ways away” from raising them. 

• Revenue growth at MSFT's Azure cloud unit accelerated past 50% in the three months through June.. 
  
  
  

• (MW) Some three in five U.S. adults support vaccination requirements for employees, residents or customers by employers; businesses; schools; and local, state and federal governments, according to new data from a Morning Consult poll conducted July 22 to July 24. 

• “He’s such a moron,” Pelosi said while getting into her SUV outside the Capitol, when asked about the House minority leader. 

• Ford said, business is picking up, and that it has received more than 120,000 reservations for the vehicle since its debut in May. Of which, about 75%, or 90,000, are new to Ford, according to the company.

Brazilian Arabica coffee (/KC) prices declined a bit amid speculation that a looming cold snap in Brazil might be less damaging to crops than originally expected.