Notes today: 

• (Bloomberg) A huge melting event in Greenland and reports that an ocean system critical to global climate may soon stall were just two of the growing number of grim daily stories about accelerating global warming. 
• (Guardian) Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse.
• Facebook  failed to enforce its own rules to curb an oil and gas industry misinformation campaign over the climate crisis during last year’s presidential election, according to a new analysis released on Thursday.

• 
  
  (Bloomberg) But on Wall Street, the future looks bright. Goldman Sachs strategists lifted their outlook for the S&P 500 Index as robust earnings growth and low interest rates fuel optimism that stocks can continue rallying despite record high levels. 

• Cryptocurrencies are not yet a threat to the financial system, but the dangers are growing

• Since the late 1990s, the U.S. hasbeen partying and forgetting about tomorrow, cashing out its inheritance from 20th century investments. 

 

 

Meanwhile a Fact of the day: In 2004 a piece of gum spat out by Britney Spears, a former popstar, was auctioned on eBay for $14,000. Read the full article. (Economist)

 

•  (LAT) In a sign of the region’s worsening drought, state water officials announced Thursday the shutdown of a major hydroelectric power plant at Lake Oroville in Northern California, citing the lowest-ever recorded water level at the reservoir.

• Particularly hawkish Brazil Central Bank raises interest rates by 1% to 5.25%, the most in a session since 2003 on inflation fears. 

• Sea freight rates from Santos Brazil to China nearly tripled YoY, from US$ 28/mt a year ago to US$ 80/mt.

 

 

Later

Covid is remarkably efficient in finding vulnerabilities…

 Presidents and GDP growth:  As expected Trump is bringing up the rear.

Since I have no idea of what I speak this is for entertainment purposes only – as always!

In 1975 Brazil had a severe frost and coffee prices started to rise – reaching $3.399 in April 1977. 

In July of 2021 Brazil had another frost (severity to be determined) and coffee prices started to rise. Using the US CPI Index, the value of $3 in 1977 would be the equivalent of $15 today.

Coffee CPI adjusted

Coffee long term

Coffee recent

Coffee Point & Figure

 Bullish Advisors 

 Market Vane

Notes today:

• Per the SEC: China based companies will have to disclose more about their structure and contacts with the Chinese government before listing in the U.S. 

• Normally a container will go from the factory in Shanghai to Chicago in 35 days. Currently it takes up to 73 days – and then the container will go back usually empty. 

• “We have to protect our mind and body rather than go out there and do what the world wants us to do” Simone Biles 

• “In today’s world, economic access and full citizenship depend crucially on math and science literacy” Bob Moses 

• Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft had quarterly after-tax profits of $56.8bn, almost up 100% 

• Facebook (AKA the plague on humanity) reported 56% rise in 2^nd quarter revenues. 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today: 

•  (AP) — (Florida in the News "again"👎👎) Florida has reported 21,683 new cases of COVID-19, the state’s highest one-day total since the start of the pandemic, according to federal health data released Saturday.

  The state has become the new national epicenter for the virus, accounting for around a fifth of all new cases in the U.S.

• Oklahoma GOP likens vaccine mandates to persecution of Jews

• A nationwide eviction moratorium is set to expire Saturday night ..

• China's Manufacturing PMI 50.3 in July 2021, expected 50.8, previous 50.9

• Interesting (crummy) month end price action in coffee. Nevertheless, Brazil’s upcoming 2022/23 coffee output has noticeably been reduced by dryness and cold weather. 
• 
  
  
  
  
• Michael Beschloss @BeschlossDC “. . .just say that the election was corrupt + leave the rest to me. . .” — Translated from the original German

• California has mandated electrical wiring for EV chargers in its new-home building codes since 2015, the rest of the U.S. has no requirements.

• At the beginning of next year, California will begin enforcing an animal welfare proposition approved overwhelmingly by voters in 2018 that requires more space for breeding pigs, egg-laying chickens and veal calves.👍👍

Notes today:

• Florida in the news: And while the virus is rampaging again - Greenland is melting away. Greenland experienced 'massive' ice melt this week.

• July 30 (Reuters) - With climate change fueling high temperatures across the Arctic, Greenland lost a massive amount of ice on Wednesday with enough melting to cover the U.S. state of Florida in 2 inches (5.1 cm) of water, scientists said.

• Florida’s covid cases jumped 50% “THIS WEEK” with 110,000 new infections reported statewide. 

• So: Florida’s DeSantis held a news conference Friday morning and said “In Florida, there will be no lockdowns, there will be no school closures, there will be no restrictions and no mandates in the state of Florida,” 

• Jabs v jab-nots
  
  
  
  

• Jeff Bezos lost nearly $14 billion today..(Forbes)

Bloomberg: 

The news around the delta variant in the U.S. keeps getting worse, threatening progress toward any return to some semblance of normalcy. New data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest the variant is as infectious as chicken pox and that vaccinated adults can readily spread it. The study of an outbreak earlier this summer in Cape Cod where many of the infected had been vaccinated contributed to the recommendation that people mask up again. Adding to the nation’s woes: new data puts the CDC’s decision to stop comprehensively tracking so-called breakthrough cases—just as delta was emerging—under scrutiny. Here’s the latest on the pandemic. —Margaret Sutherlin

Bloomberg is tracking the progress of coronavirus vaccines while mapping the pandemic worldwide. 

Later

 Is Gold waking up?

Notes today: 

• China tries to ease market fears after Beijing’s education crackdown. Well, their stock indexes are on the brink of a bear market. (weekly chart)
  
  

• The Senate voted 67-32 to move forward on the bipartisan infrastructure package.

• U.S. equities rose and yields rose after the Fed held interest rates near zero and Powell said that despite the economy’s progress, he was still “a ways away” from raising them. 

• Revenue growth at MSFT's Azure cloud unit accelerated past 50% in the three months through June.. 
  
  
  

• (MW) Some three in five U.S. adults support vaccination requirements for employees, residents or customers by employers; businesses; schools; and local, state and federal governments, according to new data from a Morning Consult poll conducted July 22 to July 24. 

• “He’s such a moron,” Pelosi said while getting into her SUV outside the Capitol, when asked about the House minority leader. 

• Ford said, business is picking up, and that it has received more than 120,000 reservations for the vehicle since its debut in May. Of which, about 75%, or 90,000, are new to Ford, according to the company.

Brazilian Arabica coffee (/KC) prices declined a bit amid speculation that a looming cold snap in Brazil might be less damaging to crops than originally expected.

 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today:  

• CDC to revise mask guidance for vaccinated people as US Covid cases rise..
• Officials reviewed yesterday showing that vaxxed ppl infected with delta have the same viral load as unvaxxed. Vaccinated are still far less likely to get seriously sick, but the data suggests they can transmit delta. (WP)

• S&P’s Case-Shiller index of property values rose 16.6% YoY in May, that was the 12th straight month that prices rose.
• Single-family home leasing company Invitation Homes (INVH) has signed an agreement to purchase 7,500 new homes  built by PulteGroup (PHM) over the next five years.

• U.S. Consumer confidence index rose to 129.1 in July from 128.9 in June.

• Coronavirus latest: Indian deaths could be above 3 million, study says (Bloomberg) 

• Less than 10 %t of Minnesota’s spring wheat acres are considered good to excellent, oat condition declined to 22 % good to excellent, and only 15 % of barley is good to excellent.

 Latest Sugar and Coffee

 FXI China large-cap ETF looking troubled..

Beijing’s  crackdowns of its technology and education sectors has unleashed shockwaves across global markets..

 

Notes today:

• A new polar air mass is set to move over Brazil's agricultural areas this week, on Thursday and Friday, threatening further damage to coffee and sugar cane crops already hurt by previous strong frosts.

• Skeptical inquirer: Once dismissed as just another set of wacky conspiracy theories from the internet, the phenomenon known as QAnon has grown into a malignant force, infecting minds with dangerous fictions and amassing real power.

• New-home sales drop 6.6% in June to 676,000 annual rate.

• Floods in central China, especially in the industrial and transport hub city of Zhengzhou in Henan province, have raised supply concerns and demand for rebuilding damaged infrastructure – so Copper is up.

  
  
  

German Pruducer prices (PPI) up 8.5% 

 

As food prices soar, big agriculture is having a field day

Even as demand for crops has surged, a confluence of factors has conspired to squeeze global supply. Droughts in North and South America have curtailed output. Brazil’s winter-wheat harvest is down by a fifth—and that fifth was meant for export. Besides the container shortage that affects specialty crops such as coffee, the grounding of commercial flights is stranding fresh fruit and vegetables. Rising bulk-shipping rates, up by 150% this year, are adding to the squeeze. 

 Cotton Point & Figure

 Sugar Point & Figure

 Coffee Point & Figure

MAUREEN DOWD 

succinctly summed up

As the planet sizzles, many Americans have gone from not caring to glazing over, from indifference to fatigue.

The U.S. isn’t ready for more variants

There’s such scant funding for mutation surveillance that one lab in Minnesota with equipment, staff and protocols in place since the beginning of the pandemic spent over a year applying for grants. It even went so far as to try crowd-funding to start doing sequencing. The lab sat underused for all of that time, despite a widespread consensus that mutation hunting is critical work necessary to ending this pandemic and preventing future ones.

 OJ, another one in new high ground..

Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction

Under one, termed business as usual, or BAU2, growth would stall and combine with population collapse. The other, termed comprehensive technology (CT), modeled stalled economic growth without social collapse. Both scenarios “show a halt in growth within a decade or so from now,” the study says, adding, that “pursuing continuous growth, is not possible.”

Sustainability is the answer, she says.

Herbert Stein "Trends that can't continue won't." in 1974

# of civilian Planes currently in the air..

 Quick Overview is up to date

Miami is hot—especially if you are selling a home.

Some 2.8m households, containing 7.4m Americans, are behind with the rent. Meanwhile, 1.9m households, in which 6m Americans live, are behind on their mortgages

As moratoriums lift, will America face a wave of foreclosures and evictions?

 Herd Immunity    The Failanx

Notes today: 

• The “must” read obituary of Esther Bejarano in the Economist. 

• Malaysian palm oil futures climbed over 3% on Friday, posting a fifth consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by strong demand from top buyer India. October delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 134 ringgit, or 3.25%, to 4,255 ringgit ($1,007.10) a tonne

• The Republican governor of Alabama has said it is “time to start blaming the unvaccinated folks” for rising cases of Covid.

• A conservative radio host in Tennessee who urged listeners not to get vaccinated against Covid-19 has changed track and called on listeners to get the shot, after contracting the virus and ending up in hospital in “very serious condition”.

• Republican lawmakers across more than a dozen states are working to limit the powers of local health departments in ways experts say is likely to lead to “preventable tragedies” during disease outbreaks, including the Covid-19 pandemic.. an infection control measure used since at least the plague, known as the “Black Death”, hit Italian cities in the 14th century. 

• Ridiculous’: Vaccine Myths Cripple U.S. Uptake as Delta Surges. The excuses range from the merely false to the absurd. The shots don’t work. They impair fertility. They’ll alter your DNA. They’ll magnetize you. They actually spread the virus.

• Will you get a covid vaccine? 

• 

• UFB: A  federal appeals ct reversed its previous ruling and reinstated Florida's law refusing cruise ships ability to require vaccination for passengers.  This when unvaccinated account for 99% of current US fatalities..

Brazil coffee frost sparks default fears, 

crop recovery may take years

An unusual cold snap here, with temperatures dropping to freezing levels in a matter of minutes on the morning of July 20, delivered a blow to the heart of Brazil's coffee belt, damaging trees and harming prospects for next year's crop.