Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction

Under one, termed business as usual, or BAU2, growth would stall and combine with population collapse. The other, termed comprehensive technology (CT), modeled stalled economic growth without social collapse. Both scenarios “show a halt in growth within a decade or so from now,” the study says, adding, that “pursuing continuous growth, is not possible.”

Sustainability is the answer, she says.

Herbert Stein "Trends that can't continue won't." in 1974

# of civilian Planes currently in the air..

 Quick Overview is up to date

Miami is hot—especially if you are selling a home.

Some 2.8m households, containing 7.4m Americans, are behind with the rent. Meanwhile, 1.9m households, in which 6m Americans live, are behind on their mortgages

As moratoriums lift, will America face a wave of foreclosures and evictions?

 Herd Immunity    The Failanx

Notes today: 

• The “must” read obituary of Esther Bejarano in the Economist. 

• Malaysian palm oil futures climbed over 3% on Friday, posting a fifth consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by strong demand from top buyer India. October delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 134 ringgit, or 3.25%, to 4,255 ringgit ($1,007.10) a tonne

• The Republican governor of Alabama has said it is “time to start blaming the unvaccinated folks” for rising cases of Covid.

• A conservative radio host in Tennessee who urged listeners not to get vaccinated against Covid-19 has changed track and called on listeners to get the shot, after contracting the virus and ending up in hospital in “very serious condition”.

• Republican lawmakers across more than a dozen states are working to limit the powers of local health departments in ways experts say is likely to lead to “preventable tragedies” during disease outbreaks, including the Covid-19 pandemic.. an infection control measure used since at least the plague, known as the “Black Death”, hit Italian cities in the 14th century. 

• Ridiculous’: Vaccine Myths Cripple U.S. Uptake as Delta Surges. The excuses range from the merely false to the absurd. The shots don’t work. They impair fertility. They’ll alter your DNA. They’ll magnetize you. They actually spread the virus.

• Will you get a covid vaccine? 

• 

• UFB: A  federal appeals ct reversed its previous ruling and reinstated Florida's law refusing cruise ships ability to require vaccination for passengers.  This when unvaccinated account for 99% of current US fatalities..

Brazil coffee frost sparks default fears, 

crop recovery may take years

An unusual cold snap here, with temperatures dropping to freezing levels in a matter of minutes on the morning of July 20, delivered a blow to the heart of Brazil's coffee belt, damaging trees and harming prospects for next year's crop.

Oats supposedly know. Do they?

 

Notes Today:

• Twitter Inc.  reported that it added 7 million users in three months, helping revenue jump 74%. (Must be all my tweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeting)

• 

• U.S. Jobless Claims Rise to 419,000

• Sen. Amy Klobuchar introduced a bill that would strip online platforms such as Facebook (AKA the Plague on Humanity) and Twitter  of liability protections if their technology spreads misinformation about coronavirus vaccines or other public-health emergencies. What about YouTube?
• In the U.S., where vaccinations, testing and the use of masks are on the decline, delta accounts for roughly 83% of positive Covid cases — and the surge shows no signs of abating.
• True to form, Mike Parson Republican Governor of Missouri, claims George Soros is to blame for news reports of spiking Covid in his state. 

• Facebook (AKA the "creepy" Plague on Humanity) has come under fire on social media for being “creepy” after admitting that its controversial new prayer feature uses data collected from the ‘thoughts and prayers’ of its more religious users to create personalized ads.

Sugar and dry bulk

The Brazilian sugarcane crop has been moving at a slower pace compared with the prior 2020-21 crop cycle, as the current crop has been suffering the effects of severe dry conditions.

As a reference, sugar production from April 1 to July 1 added 12.2 million tons, down 8.16%, or nearly 1.1 million tons, year on year.

Despite the scenario of reduced sugar production and strong concerns about further crop losses, the wide carry strategy has triggered the collapse in the Brazilian cash premium to prompt shipment.

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today:

• The World Health Organization contends that the coronavirus can be beaten by mid-2022—if the world is vaccinated - IF!

• FT: ‘One law of physics still holds: the warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold. The more moisture, the more rain.’ 

• Bloomberg reports the number of rail cars unloading grain at the Port of Vancouver the first week of July fell 77% YoY as wildfires hamper rail movement. Smoke from wildfires in the west caused hazy skies as air quality index surged to 157 in Manhattan, well above threshold of 100..

• The G20 countries have provided more than $3.3tn (£2.4tn) in subsidies for fossil fuels since the Paris climate agreement was sealed in 2015, despite many committing to tackle the crisis. Australia increased its fossil fuel subsidies by 48% over the period, Canada’s support rose by 40% and that from the US by 37%.

• McCarthy, trying to discredit house committee, says that Republicans will now form their own team… “to investigate the insurrection"… that members of their own party incited.
• Liz Cheney (👍Republican) on the Jan. 6 select committee: "This investigation must go forward. The idea that anybody would be playing politics with an attack on the United States Capitol is despicable and disgraceful."👍

• 1000+ coal miners in Alabama have been on strike for over 100 days and neither CNN, Fox News, nor MSNBC has made a single mention of it on air. (Robert Reich)

• Republicans signal major fight coming on debt ceiling. $28.5 trillion debt was added to the national debt during Trump – now they want democrats to figure out how to pay for it.

• The CME now has a micro-Crude contract. Symbol mcl and it is 100 barrels. 1/10 the regular contract.

• British Columbia declared a state of emergency  as the fires snarl transportation and supply chains. Lumber futures rose. However do-it-yourself renovation demand has dropped by a reported 40% at big-box retailers.

Coffee breaking out quite decisively..so far..

Dealers said Brazil's coffee crop, which is still flowering, could have lost 1-2 million bags due to the frosts, (Minas Gerais the coldest since 1994) which hit key coffee growing areas like Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo states.

Notes today: 

• Central Chinese province swamped after heaviest rain in 1,000 years

• Housing starts rose 6.3% 
• Single-family starts rose 6.3%
• Multi-family homebuilding category rose 6.2%
• YoY starts increased 29.1% 
• Permits fell 5.1%  the lowest level since October 2020. Permits are now lagging starts, suggesting that homebuilding will slow in the coming months.
• (Zillow) Reports of multi-month delays in the delivery of windows, heating units, refrigerators and other items have popped up across the country, delaying delivery of homes and forcing builders to cap activity, and many builders continue to point to a shortage of available workers as a separate challenge.

• China responded with outrage after America and its closest allies accused its security agencies of hacking on a grand scale. “A malicious smear”, said China.

• FT: Nasdaq to spin out exchange for private businesses in deal with banks

Spring Wheat conditions (via Stonex)

Quick Overview is up to date 

The delta variant continues to spread and the number of people testing positive for the coronavirus in the past seven days spiked to nearly 317,000, up 43% over the previous week!

 

An exponential increase!!

 

Later

All Charts are up to date.

One more time: U.S. Inflation and Fed Funds.

What’s going to give, Inflation or Fed Funds?

Majority of Covid misinformation came from 12 people, report finds

CCDH finds ‘disinformation dozen’ have combined following of 59 million people across multiple social media platforms.

I remember well when the CPI first hit 5%, and the Fed called it "transitory" and rates went to 13%. I also remember Sugar going from some 2 cents to 66 cents. Funny thing history - much to remember...

Below Fed Funds Rate minus CPI

 And the latest Covid leaders are? Florida "leading" and Texas!

As Covid cases rise in Florida, Governor DeSantis digs at Fauci with merchandise .. But perhaps the merchandise with the best sales potential are the drink koozies and T-shirts that say “Don’t Fauci My Florida”.

• Joe Biden and Facebook (FB the plague on humanity) engaged in a testy spat about misinformation, as America’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention described a surging covid-19 caseload with 99.5% of new patients unvaccinated.

 

It’s all mostly luck!

The results are something of an eye-opener. Their simulations accurately reproduce the wealth distribution in the real world. But the wealthiest individuals are not the most talented (although they must have a certain level of talent). They are the luckiest. 

Quick Overview is up to date

Lumber keeps on crashing. 

Home Depot etc. evidently still not buying. Deflation?

Notes today:

• Reuters: U.S. Retail sales rose 0.6% last month. Data for May was revised down to show sales falling 1.7% instead of declining 1.3% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales dropping 0.4%. 

• (Reuters) -Binance said on Friday it had stopped selling digital tokens linked to shares. 

• Covid is surging, and LA County has reinstated mask mandates for all. Case numbers are climbing across most of the country as the Delta variant spreads among "unvaccinated" people. Arkansas, Missouri, Florida and Nevada are experiencing full-fledged outbreaks.

• (Reuters) - China's long-awaited national carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) opened at 48 yuan ($7.42) per tonne on Friday, according to reports from Chinese media. 

• The Federal Reserve will probably end up requiring banks to conduct tests to judge their vulnerability to the effects of climate change, Chairman Jerome Powell proposed. 

• Bloomberg: Benchmark global hog futures have surged more than 25% in Chicago this year on strong demand and higher feed costs. By contrast, pork prices in China have slumped more than 50% on increased supplies as domestic herds rebound from African swine fever. U.S. pork is now more expensive than domestic meat after tariffs and freight. 

• The WSJ reported Thursday that chip giant Intel Corp. INTC is exploring a $30 billion deal to buy GlobalFoundries.

• Moderna’s (MRNA) next act is using mRNA against flu, Zika, HIV, and cancer. 

 Marine Traffic

 I'll take my chances!

Courtesy of pxmolina

• Inflation hits 13-Year High in the US
• Britain’s inflation rate rose to 2.5% in June, far exceeding expectations ..

• China's gross domestic product was up 7.9% YoY

• World Health Organization (WHO) says that the Lambda variant has now been found in 29 countries, and it classified it as a “global variant of interest,". It may lead to a two-to-threefold reduction in vaccine-triggered antibodies, compared with the original COVID-19 strain. 

• The Tennessee Department of Health will halt all adolescent vaccine outreach – notjust for coronavirus, but all diseases – amid pressure from Republican state lawmakers, according to an internal report and agency emails obtained by the Tennessean. If the health department must issue any information about vaccines, staff are instructed to strip the agency logo off the documents.. Dark Ages!
• People who are not vaccinated are bearing the vast majority of disease burden, making up over 99% of hospitalizations and deaths.

• Bloomberg: Global vaccinations of seafarers are going too slowly to prevent outbreaks on ships from causing more trade disruptions, endangering maritime workers, and potentially slowing economies trying to pull out of pandemic slowdowns.

• A key crop waterway in Argentina, the biggest exporter of soy meal, is the driest since 1944, driving buyers to its neighbor and rival Brazil.

• Here is a 52-week money challenge, where you put away $1 to start and continue to increase your savings each week by $1; at the end of the year, you’ve set aside $1,378 with minimal pain. (From Erin Lowry @ Bloomberg)

Oats: American farmers are now expected to harvest their smallest oats crop in records that go back to 1866.

HGX: regression to the mean ?

Latest Dow Theory Prediction:

Should the DJI close below 33,165 "and" the DJT close below 14,413  our Dow Theory interpretation will be bearish.

 

Quick Overview is up to date.

 

Notes today:

• Finance ministers of the Group of 20 major economies meeting in Italy have failed to agree on a climate pledge to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Meanwhile: Temperatures in Death Valley, California, reached a beyond belief 130 degrees Fahrenheit (54.4 Celsius) on Friday.

• China cut is reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% releasing 1 Trillion Yuan in liquidity to boost its economy. This is the first time since the height of the pandemic in 2020.

• A British regulator said on Friday that banks clearing gold trades in London could apply for an exemption from tighter capital rules due in January 2022, removing what some said was a threat to the functioning of the market.

• Concern is rising about the fast-spreading delta variant of the virus. The Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Gamma variants have already made the VOC list.  Lambda may be next ..

• President Joe Biden on Friday signed an executive order that the White House bills as an effort to target anticompetitive practices in tech, health care and other parts of the economy while boosting workers' wages and consumer protections.

• The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.9 percent on July 9, up from 7.8 percent on July 2. After this week’s releases from the Institute for Supply Management and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.7 percent to 5.1 percent.

• All three major US averages notched record closes on Friday,

Some say the world will end in fire,

Some say in ice.

From what I’ve tasted of desire

I hold with those who favor fire.

But if it had to perish twice,

I think I know enough of hate

To say that for destruction ice

Is also great

And would suffice.

-- Robert Frost 

 Wow, used car prices dropping 😏

 

Quick Overview is up to date

BS looks to be increasing exponentially - in lots of places!

Bloomberg: Crypto Scammers Rip Off Billions as Pump-and-Dump Schemes Go Digital

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 Voting Rights

Bloomberg: Prices paid to suppliers rose to its highest level since 1979.

FT: China is banking that the development of the necessary financial infrastructure, the country’s world-beating mobile payments systems and a successful launch of the digital version of the renminbi will make it easier to use and promote the currency beyond China’s borders.

 Climate disaster! Take a look.

British Columbia as hot as Death Valley!