Oats: American farmers are now expected to harvest their smallest oats crop in records that go back to 1866.

HGX: regression to the mean ?

Latest Dow Theory Prediction:

Should the DJI close below 33,165 "and" the DJT close below 14,413  our Dow Theory interpretation will be bearish.

 

Quick Overview is up to date.

 

Notes today:

• Finance ministers of the Group of 20 major economies meeting in Italy have failed to agree on a climate pledge to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Meanwhile: Temperatures in Death Valley, California, reached a beyond belief 130 degrees Fahrenheit (54.4 Celsius) on Friday.

• China cut is reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% releasing 1 Trillion Yuan in liquidity to boost its economy. This is the first time since the height of the pandemic in 2020.

• A British regulator said on Friday that banks clearing gold trades in London could apply for an exemption from tighter capital rules due in January 2022, removing what some said was a threat to the functioning of the market.

• Concern is rising about the fast-spreading delta variant of the virus. The Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Gamma variants have already made the VOC list.  Lambda may be next ..

• President Joe Biden on Friday signed an executive order that the White House bills as an effort to target anticompetitive practices in tech, health care and other parts of the economy while boosting workers' wages and consumer protections.

• The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.9 percent on July 9, up from 7.8 percent on July 2. After this week’s releases from the Institute for Supply Management and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.7 percent to 5.1 percent.

• All three major US averages notched record closes on Friday,

Some say the world will end in fire,

Some say in ice.

From what I’ve tasted of desire

I hold with those who favor fire.

But if it had to perish twice,

I think I know enough of hate

To say that for destruction ice

Is also great

And would suffice.

-- Robert Frost 

 Wow, used car prices dropping 😏

 

Quick Overview is up to date

BS looks to be increasing exponentially - in lots of places!

Bloomberg: Crypto Scammers Rip Off Billions as Pump-and-Dump Schemes Go Digital

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 Voting Rights

Bloomberg: Prices paid to suppliers rose to its highest level since 1979.

FT: China is banking that the development of the necessary financial infrastructure, the country’s world-beating mobile payments systems and a successful launch of the digital version of the renminbi will make it easier to use and promote the currency beyond China’s borders.

 Climate disaster! Take a look.

British Columbia as hot as Death Valley!

 

Later

Evidently, we're (me 0) worth $16-per-month to Facebook (AKA the plague on humanity), double 'our' value of 2017.

And the HUI (Gold Bug Index) is struggling..

 Wondering if the FXI (China ETF) is working on a double top?

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Later

 Notes Today:

• Three FDA advisory panel members have quit in protest over the approval of Biogen’s Alzheimer drug, with one saying it was “probably the worst drug approval decision in recent U.S. history.” (Monthly chart)

• Economist: More evidence is emerging of India’s true death toll from covid-19. The official number of covid-19 fatalities is currently just over 355,000 but various analyses of excess mortality from different parts of India suggest a true toll of between 1.8m and 2.4m since the start of the pandemic.

• Drewry’s composite World Container index increased 4.1% or $263 to $6,726.87 per 40ft container.
  
  
  

• China's Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is also moving right along.

• 

• Bloomberg: This week brought some more news that no one thought would be possible during a pandemic, which is that U.S. household net worth ballooned by $25.6 trillion in the 12 months ended March 31, bringing the total to $136.9 trillion. To put the rise in perspective, consider that the average annual increase in the 10 years through 2019 was a measly $5.35 trillion.

• Reuters: Switzerland could become the first European country to ban artificial pesticides in a June 13 referendum which backers of the initiative hope will trigger similar prohibitions elsewhere.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today: 

• Single-family housing in the U.S. has been exuberant, but it’s vulnerable and the bubble is starting to leak. 

• FT: Free movement has now come to an end for those of us from the UK. (Brexit consequences) 

• In May, the CPI rose 0.6 % (seasonally adjusted), rising 5.0 % over the last 12 months (not seasonally adjusted). The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.7 % in May (SA); up 3.8 % over the year (NSA). 

• 
  254 mass shootings in the US so far this year. 

• Biogen’s decision to price its Alzheimer’s treatment (results uncertain) at $56,000-a-year has reignited the debate over the cost of drugs. 

• A new Nevada law will outlaw about 40% of the grass in the Las Vegas area in an effort to conserve water amid a drought that is drying up the region’s primary water source.

 Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today: 

• Amazon last year, for tax year 2019, they paid 1.2% on 13 billion in U.S. profits, ( a 3 year high) while the average American paid 14%.

Robert Reich: Call me a radical lefty, but if Amazon's market capitalization exceeds Australia’s GDP, it's probably time for the company to pay more in taxes. 

• The G7 group have signed a deal to tackle tax abuses by some of the world’s biggest multinationals and establish a minimum (15%) global corporation tax for the first time. 

• Facebook (AKA the plague on humanity) has supposedly banned Trump for 2 years. 

• Putin REFUSES to rule out hijacking passenger flight from London and forcing it to land in Moscow. 

• A San Diego Federal Judge appointed by Bush overturned a California ban on assault weapons and compares AR-15’s to Swiss Army knives.
• Lots of mass killings  by Swiss army knifes – especially in Switzerland. 

• Get a covid shot In West Virginia and you could win hunting rifles or shotguns.

• 
  
  TikTok has changed its privacy policy allowing it to collect biometric data on U.S. users, including "faceprints and voiceprints."

 

 

The Republican governor of Utah has invited residents of his state to join him in a “weekend of prayer” for rain, to combat a drought emergency. 

The drought, now entering its 22nd year, has resulted in the water levels at Lake Mead dropping from an elevation of more than 1,210 feet at the start of 2000 down to about 1,080 feet right now.

Meme trading: in case you are curious regarding reddit's wallstreetbets   and the meme frenzy, here are a couple of links that simplify things.

WSB's Hottest Meme Stocks

Hyped / Trending Stocks

The number of births in China last year fell to the lowest in six decades.

The historic Lumber rally appears to be slipping a bit.

 

Notes today: 

• Ford (F) has a p/e of 12.42. 
• Tesla (TSLA) has a p/e of 602.68.
• The above # could perhaps be food for a little thought? 

• The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021.

• U.S. Consumer Spending Rose 0.5% in April.

• US Inflation: in the 12 months through April, the core PCE price index rose 3.1%, the most since July 1992, after rising 1.9% in March.

• A Dutch court has ordered Royal Dutch Shell to cut its carbon emissions by 45% and to do it by 2030.👍

• As of 5/24/2021 53% of Republicans believe Donald Trump is the actual president. 
• One in four Republicans believe core QAnon beliefs,

• The median net worth of a black household in the U.S. is $23,000, compared with $184,000 for the typical white family, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average celebrated its 125th birthday last week.

• Weeks of paid maternity leave by country:
• UK: 39
• Ireland: 26
• Australia: 18
• Denmark: 18
• Finland: 17.5
• Canada: 17
• France: 16
• Switzerland: 14
• Iceland: 13 

• USA: Zero

 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Gone fishing

 

Notes today:

• Bill Kristol: 1 in 6 Republicans voted for a 1/6 Commission.

• The Norwegian Refugee Council confirmed today that 11 of over 60 children killed by Israeli air strikes in Gaza over the last week were participating in its psycho-social programme aimed at helping them deal with trauma.

• Britain's inflation rate doubles, the start of what some say could be a surge in consumer costs..

• Reuters: Bitcoin tumbled below $40,000 after China banned financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions. ( I think governments usually don’t like it when people stop playing with their chips).

Except in passing, I have never had much interest in crypto - belonging in the too difficult to understand bucket.

But I came across this article (reddit) I find fascinating. Ponzi?

The cryptocurrency ecosystem is conceptually simple. Money comes in from new investors buying, and the same money comes out to pay those cashing out. It would be a zero-sum ecosystem, except for the fact that miners have to pay their bills in dollars

This is why "bitcoin investors" feel an immediate urge to tell everyone else to invest in bitcoin -- if no new money comes in, the financial structure eventually collapses under the miner's sell pressure.

New York investigation into Trump Organization now criminal, says attorney general.

The Arms Race for Eye Balls

More on the ATT Discovery deal via the Economist

And here is what Mr. Market thinks of todays ATT announcement:

ATT  wants to get out of the media business  and do some sort of merger with Discovery. T CEO stankey  calls cutting the dividend, most likely some 50%, "right sizing the dividend". Stock now down on the day. Clowns!

Notes today: 

• Spot-month CBOT soybean oil futures on Wednesday hit an all-time high of 72.32 cents per lb. The latest streak tops the prior highs set in early March 2008. 

• (DW) Nearly one in two people in Nepal are testing positive for coronavirus amid a 60-fold increase in cases since April. 60-fold. 

• UK withholds backing for Joe Biden’s minimum global business tax. 

• Tesla’s Musk is apparently running the cryptocurrency market single-handed this week. NUTS! 

• The preliminary estimate of the index of consumer sentiment released Friday by the University of Michigan stood at 82.8 in May, down from 88.3 in April. Consumer confidence fell due to the highest expected year-ahead inflation rates.