The number of births in China last year fell to the lowest in six decades.

The historic Lumber rally appears to be slipping a bit.

 

Notes today: 

• Ford (F) has a p/e of 12.42. 
• Tesla (TSLA) has a p/e of 602.68.
• The above # could perhaps be food for a little thought? 

• The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021.

• U.S. Consumer Spending Rose 0.5% in April.

• US Inflation: in the 12 months through April, the core PCE price index rose 3.1%, the most since July 1992, after rising 1.9% in March.

• A Dutch court has ordered Royal Dutch Shell to cut its carbon emissions by 45% and to do it by 2030.👍

• As of 5/24/2021 53% of Republicans believe Donald Trump is the actual president. 
• One in four Republicans believe core QAnon beliefs,

• The median net worth of a black household in the U.S. is $23,000, compared with $184,000 for the typical white family, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average celebrated its 125th birthday last week.

• Weeks of paid maternity leave by country:
• UK: 39
• Ireland: 26
• Australia: 18
• Denmark: 18
• Finland: 17.5
• Canada: 17
• France: 16
• Switzerland: 14
• Iceland: 13 

• USA: Zero

 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Gone fishing

 

Notes today:

• Bill Kristol: 1 in 6 Republicans voted for a 1/6 Commission.

• The Norwegian Refugee Council confirmed today that 11 of over 60 children killed by Israeli air strikes in Gaza over the last week were participating in its psycho-social programme aimed at helping them deal with trauma.

• Britain's inflation rate doubles, the start of what some say could be a surge in consumer costs..

• Reuters: Bitcoin tumbled below $40,000 after China banned financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions. ( I think governments usually don’t like it when people stop playing with their chips).

Except in passing, I have never had much interest in crypto - belonging in the too difficult to understand bucket.

But I came across this article (reddit) I find fascinating. Ponzi?

The cryptocurrency ecosystem is conceptually simple. Money comes in from new investors buying, and the same money comes out to pay those cashing out. It would be a zero-sum ecosystem, except for the fact that miners have to pay their bills in dollars

This is why "bitcoin investors" feel an immediate urge to tell everyone else to invest in bitcoin -- if no new money comes in, the financial structure eventually collapses under the miner's sell pressure.

New York investigation into Trump Organization now criminal, says attorney general.

The Arms Race for Eye Balls

More on the ATT Discovery deal via the Economist

And here is what Mr. Market thinks of todays ATT announcement:

ATT  wants to get out of the media business  and do some sort of merger with Discovery. T CEO stankey  calls cutting the dividend, most likely some 50%, "right sizing the dividend". Stock now down on the day. Clowns!

Notes today: 

• Spot-month CBOT soybean oil futures on Wednesday hit an all-time high of 72.32 cents per lb. The latest streak tops the prior highs set in early March 2008. 

• (DW) Nearly one in two people in Nepal are testing positive for coronavirus amid a 60-fold increase in cases since April. 60-fold. 

• UK withholds backing for Joe Biden’s minimum global business tax. 

• Tesla’s Musk is apparently running the cryptocurrency market single-handed this week. NUTS! 

• The preliminary estimate of the index of consumer sentiment released Friday by the University of Michigan stood at 82.8 in May, down from 88.3 in April. Consumer confidence fell due to the highest expected year-ahead inflation rates.

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index 

is making new highs

 Quick Overview is up to date

If you haven’t heard of B.1.617 yet, chances are you soon will. The World Health Organization has now raised B.1.617 from a “variant of interest” to a “variant of concern.” 

Notes today: 

• In case you are interested in todays USDA report Steve Freed has a recap here

• Republicans evidently believe  removal of  Liz Cheney and keeping the Big Lie going "endlessly" will somehow make them stronger.

• The never ending conflicts in the middle east continue…

• The (apparently Russian hacked) Colonial Pipeline is back up and running. 

• Eleven Republican governors now say they will cut off a $300-a-week emergency federal subsidy for unemployed people in their states. 

• Absurdity

  
  

In April, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, after rising 0.6% in March. Excluding food and energy, “core” consumer prices were up 0.9%—their largest monthly increase since 1982. 

Gold and Interest Rates don’t seem to be overly impressed – so far.

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today: 

• A federal judge has dismissed the National Rifle Association's petition for bankruptcy, saying it was filed in "bad faith" in order avoid litigation by the New York Attorney General's Office, which has sued to dissolve the NRA for allegedly misusing charitable funds.

• Someone over at Bloomberg seems to think it’s time to start coming up with a contingency plan for what to do if the dreaded inflation monster does awaken from the slumber it’s been in since the 1980s.  Well, I would suggest learning how to trade futures asap!

        Gallup: 71% of Americans, up from 40% in 2020 and a new high in Gallup’s trend,   believe local home prices in their area will increase over the next 12 months. 

• CNN: “Expelling Liz Cheney from leadership won’t gain the GOP one additional voter, but it will cost us quite a few,” tweeted the Utah senator Mitt Romney (and 2012 Republican presidential nominee).

• QuantumScape  (QS) said that it plans to have “commercial relevant” prototypes to auto makers in 2022 

There are 2 ways a nations population can grow. 

1) Having more babies 

2) Immigrants

Corollary: 

There are 2 ways a nations GDP can grow.

1) More people working.

2) Working harder.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 M2 Money Sock YoY % Change  and its effect on Inflation. 

Notes today: 

• 

Texas senate passes bill allowing permitless carry of handguns. And so LaPierre's NRA would like to be in Texas also.

• Trump’s adult children have cost taxpayers a lot of money over the years, but this time, it’s different. CREW got records from the Secret Service that show that in just the thirty days after Donald Trump left the presidency, his childrens’ travel cost taxpayers more than $140,000. That figure, however, does not include charges at Trump properties in Bedminster, Palm Beach and Briarcliff, New York, which would likely bring the actual total much higher.

• FT: Elon Musk’s space triumph has followed a classic Silicon Valley arc. It involved a time-tested strategy: ride on the back of government-funded research, while using government as the anchor customer to fund the development of a new market on.ft.com/3h9BNX7 

• US Unemployment ticked up to 6.1% as businesses added just 266,000 jobs in April—well below expectations of one million. 

• Bloomberg: With homeownership out of reach for many Americans because of high prices and low supply, rents are now also climbing. Record occupancy rates are emboldening single-family landlords to hike rents aggressively, testing the limits of booming demand for suburban rentals.
• AMH, which owns 54,000 houses, raised rents 11%

CBOT December #corn futures have rallied about 33% since March 1. Nothing has ever come close within the same time frame in nearly 50 years. The best Mar 1 - May 6 rally was 13% in both 1973 and 1987.

Karen Braun

@kannbwx ( https://twitter.com/kannbwx) 

Notes today: 

• Facebook (AKA the plague on humanity) announced that its keeping Trump in exile - for now. 

• Shares of Peloton fell Wednesday. The company is recalling 125,000 treadmills after 29 reports of injuries to children, and one death.

• The number of babies born in the US last year was the lowest in more than four decades. 

The Baltic Exchange Dry Index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels shipping dry bulk commodities, rose  104 points, or 3.4%, to a 11-year high of 3,157.

Notes today:

 

• According to the World Gold Council the volume of gold jewelry purchased by global consumers has reportedly increased by 477.4 tons YoY an annual rise of 52%. The council says that the demand can be attributed to a decline in the price of gold following record highs in August 2020. 

• Consumers and a fresh round of stimulus money pushed demand for U.S. imported goods to a record high in March, further expanding the trade deficit. The foreign-trade gap in goods and services expanded 5.6% MoM to a seasonally adjusted $74.4 billion in March.            

• New York Fed Bank President John Williams said on Monday U.S. GDP could increase by around 7% this year after adjusting for inflation, bringing in the fastest growth since the early 1980s. 

• Freudenberg:Xalt Energy’s batteries to power 1st all-electric ferry in New Zealand. In a country known for its natural beauty and focus on sustainability, the ferry is said to represent a milestone in New Zealand’s marine industry.

• Panda Stealer dropped in Excel files, spreads through Discord to steal user cryptocurrency..

 Quick Overview is up to date

The EU carbon price has extended its  rally to rise above €50 a ton for the first time, pushing up the cost of polluting in the bloc to more than double its pre-pandemic level. Quite some change from 2012!

Lumber prices to da moon 

(May Lumber)

 

 U.S. renewable fuels market could face feedstock deficit

• July Soy Bean Oil

Notes today:

Warren Buffett regrets Apple stock sales — "probably a mistake".

Mega-cap tech stock valuations are not "crazy," Buffett said, if Treasury rates are supposed to be this low (and that is one big “if”). (SEE Fed Model)

He described index funds as the best answer for most investors, calling SPAC’s a killer.

Munger let it rip on Bitcoin: ‘Of course, I hate the bitcoin success and I don’t welcome a currency that’s useful to kidnappers and extortionists, and so forth. Nor do I like just shoveling out a few extra billions and billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air. So I think I should say modestly that I think the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization. And I’ll leave the criticism to others.’  👍👍

• And Elon, while attempting to sell a clean electric vehicle is simultaneously encouraging the mining of Bitcoin. 
• The most recent update suggests some mind-boggling statistics – Bitcoin now consumes 121.36 terawatt-hours worth of electricity every single year, a number that is now higher than Argentina’s energy consumption and hot on the heels of Norway. When Bitcoin is classed as a country, it ranks 30th in the world, consuming almost 0.5% of the world’s energy production. 

Corn wheat ratio not been this low since 2013

Corn has about 90-95% of the nutritional value of wheat - hence the usual premium.

 

Saturday Night Music

Interested in Real Estate? Peruse the HGX  Philadelphia Housing Index

 The relentless NYSE Advance Decline Line

 Couple of interesting P&F charts today:

• Soybeans P&F

• Canadian $  P&F

• Coffee P&F

• ED P&F ( above 100  Eurodollar rates would be negative)