Lumber prices to da moon 

(May Lumber)

 

 U.S. renewable fuels market could face feedstock deficit

• July Soy Bean Oil

Notes today:

Warren Buffett regrets Apple stock sales — "probably a mistake".

Mega-cap tech stock valuations are not "crazy," Buffett said, if Treasury rates are supposed to be this low (and that is one big “if”). (SEE Fed Model)

He described index funds as the best answer for most investors, calling SPAC’s a killer.

Munger let it rip on Bitcoin: ‘Of course, I hate the bitcoin success and I don’t welcome a currency that’s useful to kidnappers and extortionists, and so forth. Nor do I like just shoveling out a few extra billions and billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air. So I think I should say modestly that I think the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization. And I’ll leave the criticism to others.’  👍👍

• And Elon, while attempting to sell a clean electric vehicle is simultaneously encouraging the mining of Bitcoin. 
• The most recent update suggests some mind-boggling statistics – Bitcoin now consumes 121.36 terawatt-hours worth of electricity every single year, a number that is now higher than Argentina’s energy consumption and hot on the heels of Norway. When Bitcoin is classed as a country, it ranks 30th in the world, consuming almost 0.5% of the world’s energy production. 

Corn wheat ratio not been this low since 2013

Corn has about 90-95% of the nutritional value of wheat - hence the usual premium.

 

Saturday Night Music

Interested in Real Estate? Peruse the HGX  Philadelphia Housing Index

 The relentless NYSE Advance Decline Line

 Couple of interesting P&F charts today:

• Soybeans P&F

• Canadian $  P&F

• Coffee P&F

• ED P&F ( above 100  Eurodollar rates would be negative)

Quick Overview is up to date

Daily Chart Book is up to date

Shortage of commodities has pushed backwardation to nearly 15-year high

Notes today:

• JUST IN: By a vote of 89 to 2, the Safe Drinking Water Act has passed in the U.S. Senate. The two "no" votes were Senators Ted Cruz and Mike Lee. How much longer is that Cancun Cruz going to be in any office? – asking for a friend.

• May Corn - new high. 

• PPI Sawmills

Notes today: 

• 
  
  At the same time, it’s prohibiting cruise lines from asking passengers for proof of vaccination.(Florida / DeSantis)

• Amazon which benefited from a surge in online shopping during the pandemic, expects the trend to continue.. 

• The US level of personal savings leaped to a 21% annual rate in the first quarter and hit the second highest level on record. 

• A court has vacated a Trump administration policy allowing the extremely dangerous pesticide, chlorpyrifos, to contaminate  food. 

• President Joe Biden told voters in an Atlanta suburb that his proposed tax increases on the wealthy would finance tax cuts for many more Americans.

Canadian $ is making new highs for the move..

Longer term it could "perhaps" have  ways to go..

World Soyoil Stock to Usage Ratio 

 May Soy Bean Oil

Quick Overview is up to date 

It evidently  takes a trip on magic mushrooms to understand bitcoin -  I think I'll pass.

Industrial Metals:

• Iron Ore +110% the past year.
• Tin +87% the past year.
• Aluminum +60% the past year.
• Zinc +55% the past year.
• Copper +50% the past year.
• Nickel +37% the past year.
• Lead +28% the past year.

 World's 20 most valuable companies (FT)

Tristan Harris from the Center for Humane Technology testified at a Senate hearing on algorithms in
social media, saying that the business model of major platforms is designed specifically to keep Americans ‘addicted, outraged, polarized, narcissistic and disinformed’

Notes today: 

• Turkey’s Central Bank Head Says Crypto Regs Coming

• Residents of Baar, Switzerland pay about 7.5% in personal taxes per 100,000 Swiss francs ($109,450) of income.(Bloomberg)

And Money's not circulating...(deflationary)

In case you missed it: The Baltic Dry Index has jumped to the highest level in a decade.

 Interesting Margin Debt  Change from yardeni

This week, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index — which tracks key farm products — surged the most in almost nine years, driven by a rally in crop futures. 

 However if CPI  adjusted things look a bit different.

 Quick Overview is up to date

Gone fishing

Notes today:

• China's exports climbing more than 30% YoY adding to signs that the global economic recovery is progressing well. 

• In March, the CPI for All Urban Consumers rose 0.6 % on a seasonally adjusted basis, rising 2.6 % over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 % in March (SA); up 1.6 % over the year (NSA). 
  
  
  

• Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.8 % over the month in March 

• Amazon supports a hike in the U.S. corporate tax rate as part of an infrastructure overhaul, CEO Jeff Bezos said, after facing withering criticism from the White House, Congress and on social media.

• 6.8m+ doses of the J&J vaccine have been administered in the U.S. CDC & FDA are reviewing data involving 6 reported U.S. blood clot cases. So the  risk from the J&J vaccine is 1 in 1,000,000.

• “If you're wondering why people are still receiving Christmas cards in April, the answer is Louis DeJoy.”

 

Looking at the parabolic rise of lumber I suppose the market thinks that  there are not enough houses for sale. 

Btw, Invitation Homes (INVH a Blackstone offshoot REIT) owns a little over 80,000 single-family rentals. (weekly chart below)

 US trade deficit at record.

 Saturday Night Music

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 Latest Buffett Indicator. Could  GDP catch up?

 Guess which one gets a TRILLION

The CME plans to launch a futures contract for lithium, seeking to capitalize on growing demand for a metal that helps to power electric vehicles.

The contract will be for lithium hydroxide delivered to China, South Korea and Japan, where most batteries globally are produced, CME said Thursday. If the futures contract is approved by regulators, it will begin trading on May 3.