Notes today: 

• Bill Browder  @Billbrowder
• BREAKING: Alexei Navalny moved to prison hospital with severe respiratory infection. This is the next step in Putin’s slow motion assassination of him. Now that Navalny’s in their custody they can continue this  without anyone ever knowing what’s happening.

• 
  The total market value of cryptocurrencies pushed past $2 trillion for the first time, after doubling in about two months. Come get your Tulips! Tulips, fresh beautiful tulips here! -- To the MOON. 
  

• Bloomberg: Because of swaps, people learned that Bill Hwang exists and was worth $20 billion at the exact moment they learned he lost it al. (Very funny - Bloomberg humor - I suppose) 

• FT: The same identity politics that Boris Johnson used so effectively in the 2016 Brexit referendum is now fuelling calls for Scottish independence: a desire for self-determination, a distrust of a distant ruling elite, and a clamour for 'control'. 

• The Texas Rangers are playing in front of a sold-out crowd of 40,000 today for its home opener. If sold-out this will be the largest attended event in the country since the COVID pandemic began. So, I suppose no need to worry about covid in Texas. Fourth wave? what’s that? 

 

Soybean Oil has been above its 50-day exponential moving average for over 150 days. See chart below. The fat  yellow line is the 50 day EAV, the other two are 5 and 20.

On the long term chart below the red line is a 200 day exponential average

Bloomberg: The personal data of more than half a billion Facebook Inc. users reemerged online for free on Saturday, a reminder of the company’s ability to collect mountains of information and its struggles to protect these sensitive assets. (not on facebook, never was, never will be!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

 

Saturday Night Music

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 Notes today:

• Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalnysaid he’s started a hunger strike to pressure prison authorities to provide him with medical care instead of “torturing” him with sleep deprivation.

• Coinbase Global, the outfit that’s closely intertwined with bitcoin, plans to go public on April 14. 
• The CME announced it will expand its suite of crypto derivatives with the introduction of a new Micro Bitcoin futures contract on May 3. The Micro Bitcoin futures will be one-tenth the size of one bitcoin. 

• MLB is taking its ball and heading out of Georgia. 👍

• Apple’s Tim Cook joined the chorus of business leaders who have belatedly come out in support of voting rights – others include: Coca-Cola, Delta, American Air, American Express, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Microsoft, ATT..
• I suppose we’ll find out if they meant what they said. If companies, and they hold the cards, stick to their guns Georgia etc. are likely to back down. Being on the right side of history is good business.

• QuantumScape (QS) said it has successfully met the technical milestone that was a condition to close for the investment of an additional $100 million by Volkswagen. The milestone required Volkswagen to successfully test the latest generation of QuantumScape’s solid-state lithium-metal cells in their labs in Germany. (Long way to go but so far so good)

• The US economy added 916,000 jobs in March, a greater number than forecast and more than the 468,000 positions created in February. The unemployment rate fell to 6% from 6.2% in February.

 

Notes today:

• Microsoft wins US army contract for augmented reality headsets worth up to $21.9bn. 

• Coke and Delta denounce Georgia voting restrictions - Finally!! 

• Richmond Fed. President Thomas Barkin said he is very “bullish” on the U.S. economy this year and expects household savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic to help fuel growth in 2022 and 2023 as well. “People just have a lot of money in their pockets,” 

• Japan factory output shrank 2.1% from the previous month in February, dragged down by falls in production of cars, electrical machinery. 

• Chinas non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surged to 56.3 from 51.4 in February. 

• President Joe Biden announced a $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan over an 8-year period including $621 billion for transportation and $580 billion for manufacturing. To pay for the plan, Biden proposed to raise the corporate income tax to 28% from 21%..

• On a monthly basis, pending home sales shrank 10.6 percent, the second consecutive month of declines.

 

 July Corn (see Freed below)

 July Beans

 

Steve Freed on limit up corn/beans USDA report

The Swiss armed forces is taking a big step to recruit more women – by no longer making female recruits wear men’s underwear.

AT&T said Trump's tax cut would create jobs – now it's laying off thousands of workers

AT&T lobbied aggressively in favor of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, promising to create 7,000 new jobs and invest $1bn in capital expenditures if it passed. AT&T saved an estimated $21bn when the tax cuts passed and the company saved an estimated $3bn annually due to the lower corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.

 (And, so far, the stock’s performance is still dismal anyway).

Viacom CBS (VIAC) I go fishing and this is what happens to one of the biggest media co. in the world. 😲

 Filibuster

 Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

I had 36 “last chance” emails today, another last chance, and another, and another - nothing but last chances.  

• In addition, I also had 6 emails today, “please let us know how we are doing -we value your insights”. Well, how about paying me for my time and insights that are so valuable to you. (Please Note "handy" Donate Button to the right)👉

• Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest Management expects Tesla Inc. stock to hit $3,000 by 2025, up from its current price of $655. At that price, the company would be worth almost $3 trillion, based on the number of shares outstanding. 

• The anti-science, anti-mask, superspreader, it’ll just vanish by Easter, drink bleach, hates masks, etc., etc., now wants credit for the vaccines. 

• Were the Airline Bailouts Really Needed?
• Once again, we have socialized an industry’s losses and privatized its profits. Airline chiefs collected tens of millions per year in compensation before the pandemic, in part by boosting their companies’ share prices by regularly buying back tens of billions in shares. That meant setting aside less money for a rainy day — or, in this case, a pandemic.

• The American Psychological Association reports that in a recent survey they conducted fully 48% of Millennials say they’ve had undesired weight gain during the pandemic, with the average weight gain being a mind blowing 41 pounds. 

• Aflac, Coca-Cola, Delta Airlines, Southern Company, Home Depot, and UPS are huge republican donors in Georgia. And all seem mum regarding voter suppression. So, Boycotts are building. Not particularly good for business, I would think. (“please let us know how we are doing - we value your insights “.See above, and make a donation)😁

Bank of America thinks that the price of real assets relative to financial assets are at lowest since 1925..

 Gone Fishing

Matt Wuerker

 Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

•  Putin again tried to tilt a U.S. presidential election toward Trump, this time by authorizing efforts to attack Joe Biden’s candidacy. 

• The White House says a coming U.S. tax plan will raise rates on corporations and the rich while providing relief for households that bring home around $110,000 per year. 

• The EU is set to unveil plans for a vaccine certificate, aka vaccine passport. This is raising questions about how the EU will manage to link up various health systems, keeping people’s data secure and private, while possibly creating a two-tier society. 

• Prices for U.S. imports rose 1.3%t in February following a 1.4-%t advance in January. Export prices rose 1.6% in February, after increasing 2.5% MoM. YoY import prices rose 3.0%t and export prices rose 5.2%. 

• US Feb. industrial production much weaker than expected at -2.2% vs. +0.3% est. 

• Coca-Cola and Home Depot have made it clear that they oppose voting restriction bills in Georgia.

 

Notes today: 

• Bloomberg: The Nasdaq stock exchange is poised to push businesses to a new level of inclusion with its proposal to require all listed companies to have at least two diverse board members. 

• 49% of republicans have no plans for getting a covid shot.
• 6% of democrats have no plans for getting a covid shot. 

• Boris Johnson – this is the wrong time for a referendum on independence. 

• India will propose a law banning cryptocurrencies, fining anyone trading in the country or even holding such digital assets, a senior government official told Reuters.

• Google (GOOGL) will face a $5b lawsuit that it didn't notify users that their data can still be collected while in "incognito" mode, a judge ruled on Friday👍👍

• According to Robert Reich the names below had a change in net worth from March 2020 to March 2021

  Musk: +$118B

  Bezos: +$58B

  Page: +$33B

  Brin: +$32B

  Zuck: +$29B

  Ellison: +$28B

  Gates: +$24B

  Ballmer: +$23B

  Dell: +$18B 

  So, I suppose the two Google Dudes won’t be much troubled by a 5 billion fine..

Investor Intelligence

 

 AAII Consensus

 Market Vane Bullish Consensus %

 

Saturday Night Music

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

 

• Minnesota utilities have warned that monthly heating bills could spike by $400, after the TEXAS DISASTER that left dozens dead, jacked up natural gas prices across the US. 
• Apparently Texas is "delivering and  sharing"  its policies - Musk is moving in.

• Hundreds of covid cases reported at Tesla plant following Musk’s defiant reopening, county data shows.

• Annual emissions tied to the electricity needed for cryptomining “rigs” (high-powered computers that produce digital tokens by solving math problems) are equal to that spewed by all of Argentina, according to researchers at Cambridge University. 

• Italy announced that it will return to near-national lockdown from Monday, with most schools, restaurants and shops closing. 

• US consumer sentiment reached a one-year high. The index rose to 83.0 in March after dropping to 76.8 in February; economists had expected a smaller increase to 78.5. 

• Germany's domestic intelligence agency hopes to place the entire Alternative for Germany party under surveillance. It views the party as being hostile to democracy. 

• Spiegel: With RT DE, Moscow wants to provide a platform for corona skeptics, right-wing populists and leftist fans of the Kremlin to destabilize democracy in Germany. Internal emails provide insights into the media organization.

• China now has a passport structure by which its people can register their vaccination and testing status. It is however “NOT YET” mandatory.

• Ex Brazilian President Lula da Silva, cleared of corruption charges, may run again in 2022.

• FT: Russia is now a country where retweeting a protest joke gets you 15 days in jail, and where a deaf-mute can be fined $70 for allegedly shouting anti-regime slogans.

     Notes today: 

• US Consumer prices for services other than energy services rose 1.3 percent from February 2020 to February 2021. Not exactly the hyperinflation bs that’s currently emanating from conspiracy bloggers etc. If the US currently has problem with inflation - it is too low. 

• Bloomberg: Piracy will cost TV and movie providers some $52 billion in revenue worldwide in 2022 according to statisa.com. 

• Canadian Dollar Hits 3-year High. The Canadian economy added 259,200 jobs in February, Statistics Canada reported Friday, well ahead of expectations for a 75,000 gain. 

• Philadelphia calls for 'lights out: Scientists estimate between 365 million and 1 billion birds are killed by collisions with buildings or other outdoor structures in the US every year and those crashes are taking a toll on some species.

 

Notes today: 

• Congress passed a landmark $1.9tn coronavirus relief bill with zero support from republicans - ZERO support - nada.

• The lower house of Mexico’s parliament voted to decriminalise the recreational use of cannabis. 

• Since 2018, Cox communications has donated $31,550 to Gowan and 24 other sponsors of voter suppression legislation in Arizona.

• The US CPI rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis; rising 1.7 % YoY.

• The European Union’s statistics office said gross domestic product in the 19 countries sharing the euro fell by 0.7% QoQ, more than the initial 0.6% estimate, for a 4.9% YoY

• Merrick Garland was confirmed by a vote of 70 to 30. Among the Republicans who voted in Garland's favor were Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Republicans who voted against Garland included two likely 2024 presidential candidates, Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Ted Cruz of Texas.

 Cancel Culture

Economist: The world’s consumers are sitting on a pile of cash. Will they spend it?

Households do not usually save on such a scale during recessions. For one thing, their incomes usually fall, as their pay is cut or they lose their jobs. But governments in the rich world have spent 5% of their combined GDP on furlough schemes, unemployment benefits and stimulus cheques during the pandemic. As a result, household incomes have actually risen in the past year.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes today:

• Gold is trying to wake up -  it’s up 2% to $1708 

• Reserve Bank of Australia chief Philip Lowe repeats that interest rates are unlikely to rise until at least 2024 as inflation is a long way from goal.

• Hackers breach thousands of security cameras, exposing tesla, jails, hospitals..

• The Baltic Exchange's rose for the sixth straight session - up 2.6% to 1,901. 
• The Capesize index, rose 6.8% to 1,950.
• The Supramax index rose 36 points to 1,969.
• The Panamax is down a bit to 2,238.
• Asian shipping container shortage - continues.

• Business confidence in India is at at decade high of 74.2  up from 70.2

• The number of China-Europe freight trains hit 1,165 in January, up 66 % YoY. 
• Some 9.97 million pieces of anti-epidemic supplies, weighing 80,000 tonnes, have been sent to European countries including Germany, Poland and Belgium by the trains since the epidemic outbreak.

Bloomberg: Bitcoin Has Zero Intrinsic Value. Some People Are OK With That

Soybeans and sturdy shoes are looking better and better by comparison. 

Tulips anyone?

 

Steve Freed regarding USDA report

Quo Vadis Beans? Reminiscent of the early 70s ..

 

Alan Greenspan's favorite indicator at 5  + year high - despite Covid.

 EU carbon Price on the move. 

The European Union is considering curbs on speculation in the world’s biggest carbon market where record prices have lured hedge funds in search of profits.

 Saturday Night Music:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88LNk-_Tfr8

Quick Overview is up to date 

Zero House and Zero Senate  Republicans voted for Covid relief. Zero, not one! R’s really don’t care about you, your family, or your friends – it’s that simple!

Doing a by the seat of pants (unscientific) survey of ATT (T) comments, on several bulletin boards, the remarks appear to be at least 80% negative. Contrarian anyone? Monthly chart below. BTW the yield is around 7%

Notes today:

• US: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2%. The number of unemployed persons, at 10.0 million, also changed little.
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday that despite the strong job gains last month, Congress still needs to “go big” by passing President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion relief.

• Musk’s electric carmaker is down more than 30% since its January high, hurting anything associated with it -- most notably Cathie Wood’s flagship exchange-traded fund, the Ark Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK). 

  

• Britain’s financial regulators on Friday called a formal halt to nearly all Libor rates from the end of this year, as expected, piling pressure on markets to speed the switch in interest rates used in $260 trillion of contracts around the world. 

• Singapore’s economy has been ranked the freest in the world this year in The Heritage Foundation’s 2021 Index of Economic Freedom, the second year in a row it topped the list. 

• China is aiming for an economic growth rate above 6% in 2021.

• The U.S. trade deficit widened in January as American consumers stepped up purchases of imported products. The deficit in trade of goods and services expanded by 1.9% to $68.2 billion in January - this compares to a  $66.97 billion gap in December. 

VERY Interesting chart from Longview Economics on Commodity cycles relative to S&P.

If you consider down 20% the definition of a bear market - Ark Investment (ARKK) run by high-flier Cathie Wood is now in a bear market. 

Quick Overview is up to date 

Notes today: 

• SCOTUS today: Justice Barrett: What is the interest of the GOP in keeping (laws that suppress minority voters) on the books?

  Republican Lawyer: It puts us at a competitive disadvantage relative to Democrats. Politics is a zero-sum game.

• 
  Abbott opening Texas100% - a repeat of last spring. President Joe Biden said Wednesday that moves by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and others to lift statewide Covid restrictions showed "Neanderthal thinking." Neanderthals: Hey, we are all wearing masks!

• When asked about market expectations for earlier rate hikes, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said that there is still a lot of ground to cover on jobs and inflation. 

• Petaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first in the country to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. 

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 60.8 in February up from 58.7 in January, beating market expectations of 58.8. The strongest expansion in factory activity since February of 2018. 

• MoM Construction spending in the US rose 1.7% 

• In response to Navalny’s continued imprisonment,  the US is catching up with sanctions imposed on Moscow by the EU👍👍 - where  Trump had turned a blind eye. 

• YoY Japans Monetary Base came in at 19.6% below forecasts. 

• The unemployment rate in Japan is 2.9%

• Australia keeps its border shut for another three months.