Bloomberg: It turns out that wild fluctuations in polar airflow that many experts blame on  climate change are bad for the industry most responsible for causing it. U.S. oil production has plunged by more than 2 million barrels a day as the coldest weather in 30 years wreaks havoc on key producing states that rarely have to deal with frigid Arctic blasts. Indeed, the unforgiving weather has pushed natural gas prices at one trading hub up 24,000% from just a week ago, halting fracking and even Amazon. Renewable sources also are in trouble, as are power companies. Don’t understand how a hotter planet can be responsible for bone-chilling cold? This is how the science works. —David E. Rovella

Hey Musk and Ellison, are you two dudes moving out of Texas and back to California where the weather is nice and the lights are on? Perhaps paying a bit in taxes to keep the lights on – not such a bad idea.

 Today's front page of the NY Daily News

 By kaltoons

 Quick Overview  is up to date.

 Trump acquitted  .. Sad! Tragic!

" The President was guilty of everything he was accused of...which is why I voted to acquit" Jon Stewart

 Persistent 50-year decline in wages. Share of GDP.

 Notes Today: 

• It seems that the attempted Silver short squeeze by the Reddit crowd has at least temporarily failed. Yet, rising demand as the economy picks up steam may drive prices higher in the long run.

 

• QuickOverview is up to date. 

• Guardian: The volume of exports going through British ports to the EU fell by a staggering 68% last month compared with January last year, mostly as a result of problems caused by Brexit.

•  Bloomberg: Commodities have been on a tear since March and have surged to the highest level in more than six years, with rallies in everything from iron ore to soybeans, copper, and corn. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Ospraie Management LLC are among institutions that have endorsed raw materials as investment plays and predict they have more room to climb.

Notes Today: 

• Adjusting for the people that have dropped out of the labor force, by choice or obligation, the unemployment rate is around 9.5%,” estimated lead U.S. economist Lydia Boussour of Oxford Economics. 

• Consumer credit in the United States increased by $9.73 billion in December of 2020 after rising by a downwardly revised $13.93 billion in the previous month, 

• Bloomberg: By the end of last year, more than 30% of U.S. homeowners were considered equity-rich -- meaning their property was worth twice as much as the underlying mortgage, a report showed. 

• Exxon Mobil posted its first annual loss in at least 40 years. 

• South Korea returned to first place in the latest Bloomberg Innovation Index, while the U.S. dropped out of a top 10 that features a cluster of European countries
  
  
  

 

 

• Guardian: The Texas Republican party has endorsed legislation that would allow state residents to vote whether to secede from the United States.

• President Biden is supposedly on pace to save the U.S.  $124m this year by just not golfing. 

Fox has canceled “Lou Dobbs Tonight” one day after the host was named in a multibillion dollar defamation lawsuit against the network and its parent company.👍😂

Silver is starting the week higher as the reddit crowd piles in. Dealers said they were unable to process orders until Asian markets open because of unprecedented consumption.

 How much you'll need to earn before you purchase a home.

 US Corn sales (via Thomas Elder Markets)

USDA: Global orange production for 2020/21 is forecast to rise 3.6 million metric tons (tons) from the previous year to 49.4 million as favorable weather leads to larger crops in Brazil and Mexico, offsetting declines in Turkey and the United States. Consequently, consumption, fruit for processing, and fresh exports are also forecast higher.

The ICE and cotton:

Effective with the start of trading for trade date Friday, January 29, 2021, the Daily Price Limit for all Cotton No. 2 futures contract delivery months will revert to 3 cents per pound (300 points) above and below the prior day Settlement Price for the respective delivery month. 

Effective with the start of trading for Monday, February 1, 2021, the Daily Price Limit for all Cotton No. 2 futures contract delivery months per pound (400 points) above and below the prior day Settlement Price for the respective delivery month.

 

Compensation in private industry and state and local government, 3-month percent change:

It's maybe only a matter of time before the WallStreetBets crowd come after the soybean and corn market. The thing is: corn and soybeans may have a bullish story backing things up.  
For solid fundamental analysis listen to Steve Freed of ADM.

 Notes Today: 

• The Fed left interest rate unchanged and stuck with the current pace of bond-buying. 

• Gold is having its worst January performance since 2011. 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

• Fed's Powell: Don't blame us for GameStop frenzy.

  

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• Bloomberg: WallStreetBets, fueling a frenzy of retail trading, briefly turned itself off to new users Wednesday after a deluge of new participants raised concerns about its ability to moderate content, a notice on the website said. 

• Bloomberg: The world’s first exchange-traded fund solely for psychedelic-drug companies will debut this week in Toronto, a reflection of the investment industry’s desire to capitalize on rising interest in prospective mental health treatments using the drugs. The Horizons Psychedelic Stock Index ETF, listed as PSYK, is expected to start trading Wednesday on the NEO Exchange. 

• Australia says “inevitable” that Google will have to pay for news. 

• Oklahoma wants to return its $2 Million Stockpile of Hydroxychloroquine. The state bought over a million pills last year after Trump pushed, with 0 evidence, the use of the drug as a COVID-19 treatment. 

• Remarkably busy with alternate history - Deborah Birx saw the president presenting graphs she never made.

• New Zealand said it would likely keep its borders closed to the world through most of 2021.

• Robert Reich: Spare me the Republican party’s fake outrage about the deficit. The GOP’s tax cut for the rich added $1,900,000,000,000 to the debt. When billionaires and corporations are getting a payout, the GOP couldn’t care less about the national debt.

• Unilever (UL):The uses of this unique technology are almost limitless,” says Unilever’s Vice President for Science & Technology, Unilever Homecare, Dr Jon Hague, including tackling some of the biggest societal and environmental challenges of the 21st century where microbial biofilms are commonplace.

 

 

Quick Overview is up to date 

Notes Today: 

• Market Watch: China overtook the U.S. as the world’s top destination for new foreign direct investment last year, as the COVID-19 pandemic amplifies an eastward shift in the center of gravity of the global economy.
• New investments by overseas businesses into the U.S., which for decades held the No. 1 spot, fell 49% in 2020, according to U.N. figures released Sunday, as the country struggled to curb the spread of the new coronavirus and economic output slumped.
• China, long ranked No. 2, saw direct investments by foreign companies climb 4%, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said. Beijing used strict lockdowns to largely contain COVID-19 after the disease first emerged in a central Chinese city, and China’s gross domestic product grew even as most other major economies contracted last year.

• The notable drop-off in Chinese iron ore demand may be behind AUD’s recent bit of weakness.
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• The IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for the US jumped to 59.1 in January of 2021 from 58.3 in December and well above market forecasts of 56.5.

• Sales of previously owned houses in the US rose 0.7% MoM to 6.76 million units in December of 2020, beating market forecasts of 6.55 million. The median existing-home price was $309,800, up 12.9% YoY

• Bloomberg: “I have received calls from every building with Trump on it in the city trying to get it removed,” Bailey said. “Over time in New York, Donald Trump has not been very popular and New York is about money, so having Trump’s name on the building reduces its value.” 

• Bloomberg: Trump’s campaign paid more than $2.7million over two years to individuals and firms that organized the Jan. 6 rally that led to rioters storming the U.S. Capitol, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. 

• AT&T gains on report of talks to sell minority DirecTV stake to TPG. T is reporting Wednesday morning. (I enjoyed HBO Max the Flight Attendant)
  
  
  

• A hacker hacked sensitive information from Intel’s website, prompting the company to report the numbers earlier than planned. Hopefully Pat Gelsinger can get INTC’s act together – I’m expecting the answer to be yes. 
  
  
  

•  MoM Retail sales in Australia fell 4.2% 

• Japan Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 In December. 

• New Zealand inflation running at 1.4% currently. 

• (MW) Biden’s plan to make community college free and four-year public college tuition-free for students from households earning $125,000 or less would increase Americans’ disposable income by $61 billion, according to an analysis published this week by the Campaign for Free College Tuition and Rise, an advocacy organization focused on college affordability and other youth and student issues. 

The best first-day reaction to an elected president’s inauguration since Jan. 20 became the official start in 1937. (Bloomberg)

 Good Riddance !

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today: 

• You can observe a lot by just watching. Yogi Berra
• Or: Wildebeest investors and the dangers of the herd (FT)  

• Looks like another $1400 may be coming to some 150 million Americans - encouraging additional speculation - for some. 

• Misinformation dropped dramatically the week after Twitter banned Trump. Surprise ,surprise. 

• Bloomberg: Norway expressed increasing concern about the safety of the Pfizer Inc. vaccine on elderly people with serious underlying health conditions after raising an estimate of the number who died after receiving inoculations to 29.

• Bloomberg: The Treasury market’s bears had better take notice: There’s a wall of global cash poised to swoop in and buy, likely limiting the upside in yields. 

• A new ETF ARK Space Exploration ETF (ARXX) is getting ready to launch and creating buzz. ARK's will primarily track companies engaged in space exploration and innovation.

• The Port of Long Beach reported its busiest year in 2020. IT moved a record 8.1 million TEUs in 2020 despite facing headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing trade war with China. 

• FT: The cost of shipping goods from China to Europe has more than tripled in the past eight weeks as a shortage of empty containers stemming from Covid-19 disrupts global trade

• The China Containerized Freight Index continues higher

  
  
  

Dow Trend Earnings (aka Fed model) is up to date, and ready for your perusal.

 

Notes Today: 

• Twitter has suspended 70,000+ accounts linked to QAnon. 

• Google suspends Trump's YouTube account and  disables comments. 

• The U.S. trade deficit jumped to $68.1 billion in November, the highest monthly deficit in 14 years... 

• Soybeans are above $14 per bushel for the first time since June 2014 on shrinking global supplies and strong demand. If Brazil and Argentine stay dry – there is no telling how high.  (See below)

• McConnell, the Senate majority leader, has told associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses. 

• SouthKorea Unemployment Rate at 4.6%, above expectations (3.9%).

Long term look at soybeans & USDA report today;

 

San Diego Zoo Safari gorillas test positive for COVID-19

 Quick Overview is up to date

The American Abyss

 A historian of fascism and political atrocity on Trump, the mob and what comes next. NYT

Twitter says it has "permanently suspended" Trump's account "due to the risk of further incitement of violence. S&P is higher..

I think I'll have a couple more scoops of UL  !

Ben & Jerry's Urge 25th Amendment, Trump Impeachment After Capitol Riots

Notes Today: 

• Facebook declares DC situation an "emergency," MULLS stronger action. “The plague on humanity” is mulling. 

• Twitter is locking trumps account for 12 hours. Wow, a full 12 hours. 

• Trumps senators are beginning to climb down. Soon it’ll be trump who? No, that was premature, the BS continues.

• Congratulations to Senators Warnock & Ossoff. Well done Georgia for showing the world the civilized side of America.

 Revolting!

Absolutely sickening to watch GOP members clapping at this anti- democratic charade!

 Notes Today:

1. The NYT has the probability of Warnock and Ossoff winning in Georgia at over 95%. 👍

• Fed's Evans says 3% inflation wouldn't be bad. Yes it would! 

• China vowed to expand domestic crop production and strengthened its plan to ensuring grain and food security after imports surged to unprecedented levels. 

• Eleon Musk reportedly says that “China is more responsible to its citizens" than the US.

Notes Today: 

• US Construction spending rose 0.9% in November, reflecting a surge in demand from buyers taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates or leave cities for more space during a pandemic. Spending on new homes rose 16.2% YoY.  

• The US cost of buying a home climbed to the highest level in six years. 

• US Manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.1 in December from 56.7 in November.  

• Expected higher inflation ahead along with sovereign/corporate debt that’s out of hand is helping precious metals.

• (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans on Monday had a message for markets: vaccines may bring the coronavirus pandemic under control this year, but the U.S. central bank is nowhere close to ending its super-easy monetarypolicy.

As of tonight, for around $35,000 you can buy: 

1 Bitcoin  

or

1.15 Shares in the DJIA

18 oz of gold

1230 oz of silver

2600 bushels of soybeans

5400 bushels of wheat

7000 bushels of corn

 

All  # rounded up or down a bit.

 

 

Ben Rhodes

@brhodes

·

55m

Pretty remarkable how much more commitment to democracy the Georgia Secretary of State has than almost the entire House and Senate Republican caucus

 And another remarkable chart: The PHLX SOX Semiconductor ETF

 Interesting long term chart of the Nikkei

The "memorable" 11 Republican senators that say they'll "vote on January 6 to reject the electors" from certain states. Ted Cruz Ron Johnson James Lankford Steve Daines John Kennedy Marsha Blackburn Mike Braun Cynthia Lummis Roger Marshall Bill Hagerty Tommy Tuberville

 Quick Overview is up  to date

 40 Years of the S&P

 Soybeans performing as advertised!

Notes Today:  

• Just before New Year’s McConnell's managed to block the $2000 relieve bill. Kentucky, the state that elects this guy, is in the bottom 5 states in every economic quality-of-life measure. Yet he wins. It boggles the mind. 

• Just before New Year’s Louie Gohmert sues Pence in (GOP clown show) bid to overturn election results on Jan. 6 

• Just before Christmas, Johnson managed to bring about the only trade deal in history that puts up barriers to commerce rather than removing them, and in the process Britons lost the right to live and work in 27 countries.  

• CNN: Stanley Johnson, the father of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, has said that he intends to obtain French citizenship -- his comments coming just hours before the UK's final transition out of the European Union. 

• The NYSE is starting the process of delisting securities of three Chinese telecom companies, after Trump last month barred U.S. investments in Chinese firms he says are owned or controlled by the military. They are  China Telecom Corporation Limited , China Mobile Limited  and China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited  

•  African countries began officially trading under a new continent-wide free trade area. 

• Small drones will be allowed to fly over people and at night in the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said. A significant step toward their use for widespread commercial deliveries. Now that will make everyone feel very safe. Especially since none will be hacked – I’m sure.  

• 12/23/2020 New home sales fell 11% in November to 841k, but still +21% y/y Decline in all regions: - Midwest -43% - West -17% - Northeast -2.5% - South -1.9%
• Inventory: 4.1 months
• Median home price: $335,300, +2.2% y/y
• Some moderation in sales in 2021, but still strong activity expected

 

 Happy Holidays  Be well, see you next year.

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today: 

•  Boris Johnson summoned ministers for an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss how to tackle mounting concerns about the new strain of coronavirus identified in parts of south-east England. The variant is thought to be more infectious. 

•  The U.S. current-account deficit, rose 10.6% in Q3

• Senator Ron Johnson blocks $1,200 checks for Americans cites the deficit. No deficit problem when he voted for tax cuts for the top 1%

• Fed allows banks to resume share buybacks

• Do you think the money Rupert Murdoch paid to get first in line in getting a vaccine came from his Fox profits for the ratings they got telling their viewers COVID is a hoax and that the vaccine is bad? @kurteichenwald asks.

• The defense bill Trump is threatening to veto contains cyber security to protect against Russian hacks.

• Germany's  VW falling a bit behind Tesla. Well, perhaps more than a bit.