Quick Overview is up to date

• Odds of a second bailout for the U.S. economy fell due to a split over a lean deal proposed by Republicans, estimated at $500 billion. This is just a fraction of the $2.2 trillion deal supported by Democrats.

 

• The U.S. budget deficit climbed by $200 billion and tops $3 trillion for the first time ever..

 

• The public debt ratio of  industrialized countries is about to set a new record.

 

• Biden proposed a plan that calls for a 10% tax penalty on U.S. companies that move operations overseas and a 10% tax credit for companies that create jobs in America. 

• In August, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis; rising 1.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in August (SA); up 1.7 percent over the year (NSA).
• Notable # in the CPI: The index for used cars and trucks increased 5.4 percent in August, its largest monthly increase since March 1969.

 

 

 

• Americans claiming ongoing unemployment assistance rose 93,000, to 13.4 million in the week ended Aug. 29.    

 

• People are accusing Woodward of valuing book sales over public health. Nearly 200,000 Americans have died because neither Donald Trump nor Bob Woodward wanted to risk anything to keep the country informed,” wrote Esquire’s Charles P. Pierce.   

 

• Microsoft found that groups from Russia, China and Iran have stepped up cyber-attacks to disrupt the U.S. presidential election.   

 

• US GDP to rise 35% in Q3 so says Goldman Sachs

• JPMorgan published a note warning that based on recent surveys, iPhone sales are "moderating substantially" ahead of the iPhone 12 launch,

 

• The number of homeowners in forbearance is falling, but the July 31 expiration of extra unemployment benefits this month will provide a serious  test.

 

• UK PM Johnson accuses EU of using threatening food blockade.. 

• Johnson said on Saturday that a planned bill, which would breach a divorce treaty with the bloc, was needed to protect Britain’s integrity.                                                                                     However a no-deal Brexit would hurt the British economy a lot more than the European Union, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz responded. “Europe would be able to deal with it and there would be no particularly serious consequences after the preparations we have already made,” he added.

 

• South Korea Money Supply Growth came in at 8.5%, above expectations (8.4%) in July  

 

• World corn stocks fall to 306.79 mmt, down from 317.46 mmt last month and below trade at 311.11 MMT
• World soybean stocks fall to 93.59 mmt, down from 95.36 mmt last month, but just above trade at 93.11 MM

 

 

 

 

Keeping an eye on China food inflation (chart below), US grain exports/supply and USDA report tomorrow.

 Bond Default Rate % moving right along

Swiss National Bank has become one of largest tech investors in the world..

Hate Social Media? You’ll Love This Documentary

 The Social Dilemma argues that humanity’s greatest existential threat is not climate change, but Facebook.

AKA The Plague on Humanity

 

(FT)Those boats in Texas paraded at the wrong speed

The Trump boat parade on Saturday in Texas failed to do these things, and ended up fighting an opponent more formidable than any Democrat: physics.

 

• (Reuters) - Britain began a fresh round of Brexit trade talks by warning the European Union that it was ramping up preparations to leave the bloc without an agreement as the two sides bicker over rules that govern nearly $1 trillion in trade. Meanwhile, (FT) the UK government admits it will break international law over Brexit treaty.
• This British regime is blatantly cheapening the concept of a rules-based international order – quite astounding!
  
  
  

 

• Japan, the world’s third-largest economy shrank an annualized 28.1% in April-June.

 

• Bloomberg: About 2.25 million mortgages were at least 90days late in July, a 450% increase from pre-pandemic levels and the biggest number since the global financial crisis, according to industry tracker Black Knight Inc.

 

• General Motors Co. said it would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola Corp. the maker of hydrogen fuel cell electric pickup trucks (the future ?)..… Contributing to Tesla’s plunge of 21.06% its biggest daily percentage drop. The car maker was also spurned from a group of companies being added to the S&P 500.

 

 

Suggested Reading regarding  CLO's:  The Looming Bank Collapse

Unless you work in finance, you probably haven’t heard of CLOs, but according to many estimates, the CLO market is bigger than the subprime-mortgage CDO market was in its heyday. The Bank for International Settlements, which helps central banks pursue financial stability, has estimated the overall size of the CDO market in 2007 at $640 billion; it estimated the overall size of the CLO market in 2018 at $750 billion. More than $130 billion worth of CLOs have been created since then, some even in recent months. Just as easy mortgages fueled economic growth in the 2000s, cheap corporate debt has done so in the past decade, and many companies have binged on it.

Quick Overview is up to date

• Nonfarm payrolls rose by 1.37 million, including the hiring of 238,000 temporary Census workers. The unemployment rate fell more than expected, by almost 2 percentage points, to 8.4%. However, the # was distorted by people misclassifying themselves as being “employed but absent from work.” Without this error, the unemployment rate would have been about 9.1% last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated.

 

• Buffett’s  $6.2 billion expedition into Japan’s five largest trading houses may indicate that  Buffett is  expecting inflation and a weaker U.S. dollar thereby making international equities more attractive.

 

• Reuters: The ISM said its index of national factory activity increased to a reading of 56.0 last month from 54.2 in July. That was the highest level since November 2018 and marked three straight months of growth.

 

• Reuters: The Federal Reserve will need to roll out new efforts "in coming months" to help the economy overcome the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and live up to the U.S. central bank's new promise of stronger job growth and higher inflation, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Tuesday.

 

 

• The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.1 last month from July’s 52.8, marking the sector’s fourth consecutive month of growth and the biggest rate of expansion since January 2011.  …..  LME copper stocks fall to lowest since Dec 2005.

 

• Economist: ..on September 2nd Germany’s government said it had proved “unequivocally” that Mr Navalny had been attacked with a military-grade nerve agent of the Novichok family—the same sort of chemical weapon used against Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, in the British city of Salisbury in 2018. 

 

• (Reuters) - Soaring corn prices are stokingfood security jitters in China, where food inflation has climbed to the highest in over a decade and President Xi Jinping made a recent high-profile plea for an end to wastage.

• According to new research from JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa, GE stock -  once the classic "widows and orphans" investment - might be worth nothing at all.

 

A quite remarkable 60 year high chart is Real Disposable U.S. Income YoY % Change.  (working here) Cushioning the pandemic ...

However it appears not to be spent. (working here)

But saved  (working here) All 60 Year Highs / Lows

Quick Overview is up to date

• President Donald Trump is willing to sign a $1.3 trillion coronavirus relief bill, a top aide said on Friday, but Democratic House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the sum was not enough to meet the needs of the American people.

• Reuters: Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 1.9% last month, after jumping 6.2% in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending would gain 1.5% in July. July’s increase left consumer spending about 4.6% percent below its February level.

• “The Fed said it can allow inflation to run above its 2% target for some time seems like they are going to keep their monetary policy extremely loose”.

• Iowa, the biggest U.S. corn-producing state, is facing its most widespread drought since September 2013, state agriculture secretary Mike Naig said on Friday.

• In a dramatic U-turn, Brazil's Environment Ministry said on Friday it would continue to fight deforestation, reversing its position after saying hours earlier that it could not afford to continue enforcement efforts in the Amazon.

• Reuters: The company that operates the Trump International Hotel in Vancouver said on Friday it has filed for bankruptcy, blaming the coronavirus pandemic for lost revenue and financial hardship.

• Nearly half of Twitter accounts pushing to reopen America may be bots..   The plague on humanity, merrily plaguing away..
  

Study: Black turbine blades reduced bird mortality by 72%

• Some very long-term trends are changing for the better. First, insurance giant Suncorp says it won't insure oil or gas companies and projects. And now Exxon, the world’s biggest company as recently as 2011 is booted from the Dow Industrials.

• Utilization rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) fell to 44% in August, their lowest level this year according to Vortexa data. The sharp drop since the year-to-date high of 52% in May follows stymied global demand recovery for crude and a significant loss of cargoes compared to 2019 levels.

• DJIA changes: Out go Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), and Pfizer (PFE). In come Salesforce. com (CRM), Honeywell International (HON), and Amgen (AMGN).

• Germany’s economy shrank by 9.7% from April to June compared with the first three months of the year.

• The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slumped to 84.8 in August after tumbling to a downwardly revised 91.7 in July.

• U.S. new home sales rose by 13.9 % to an annual rate of 901,000 in July after rising by 15.1 % to a rate of 791,000 in June.

Drewry’s composite World Container index increased 4.2% to $2,176.90 per 40ft container this week. More shipping here and here

 Quick Overview is up to date

• The National Association of Realtors said on Friday sales of existing homes rose 24.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million units last month from 4.7 million in June. 

• Home prices rose to a record $304,100

• The average time on the market fell to 22 days in July, a record low, from 24 in June -- nearly 70% sold in less than a month. 

• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 2.99% for the week ending Aug. 20 is clearly helping and creating a bit of a Real Estate sugar high. However, the surge in home prices is threatening to make buying a home unaffordable once again.

• Meanwhile across the pond, the UK housing market has had its busiest month in more than 10 years in July.

• Americans filing a new claim for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly back above the 1 million mark.

• Putin critic Navalny, Russia’s mainopposition figure is in a coma after drinking a cup of tea allegedly laced with poison.

• Guardian: A temperature of 54.4C – or 129.9F – has been recorded in Death Valley, CA in what some extreme weather watchers believe could be the hottest reading ever reliably recorded on the planet.
• If you are pondering why one of the strongest commodity markets is lumber? Well, millions of Beetles Are Wiping Out Forests All Across the World.

• The Trump administration is taking the final steps to let oil and gas companies drill in the Arctic national wildlife refuge.

• Meanwhile, this BIG DEAL! Aussie insurance giant Suncorp says it won't invest in or insure oil or gas companies and projects.

• Goldman Sachs cut their default forecast for the US Junk sector to 10.5% from 13% for the full year.
• Goldman Sachs is the latest firm to boost its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 3,600 from 3,000.

• China drought, heavy rains spark concern over grain supply as Xi Jinping launches campaign against food waste. Concerns are mounting about China’s grain supply this year, despite government assurances that the summer harvest was at ‘an all-time high ‘Output has been hit by drought and heavy rains and many farmers are hoarding crops in expectation that prices will continue rising because of low supply, traders say.

• The #Ebola outbreak in DRC's Équateur province has now hit 100 cases & 43 deaths. Efforts to stop it are not going well. It is evolving in a concerning way,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa.

• Looks like a new #Solar Cycle 25 is truly underway! Perhaps providing the Fuel for a new “solar powered” Roaring twenties? 

Could someone ask Taiwan what  they are up to, and ask, if perhaps they wouldn’t mind if it gets copied? 

Covid Deaths per 1 Million Population (so far)

Select Countries with believable numbers.

Taiwan 0.3

New Zealand 4

South Korea  6

Japan     9

Hong Kong   10

Australia    19

Greece      23

Norway 49

Austria   81

Israel  88

Denmark 107

Germany  111

Switzerland 231

Canada   240

France 467

USA    541

Sweden  575

UK    609

Spain 617

Belgium 861

Major World Stock Indices are up to date

Quick Overview  is up to date

• No sign of a stimulus deal - Senate is on vacation till next month.  

• Bloomberg: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. added Barrick Gold Corp. to its portfolio in the second quarter, sending shares of the world’s second-largest miner of the metal surging. (weekly chart)

• Big companies are going bankrupt at a record pace, but that’s only part of the carnage. By some accounts, small businesses are disappearing by the thousands amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and the drag on the economy from these failures could be huge… real-time data on small business is notoriously scarce...

• Bloomberg: The U.S. seized four tankers carrying Iranian gasoline bound for Venezuela in an unprecedented move by the Trump administration that carries the potential to destabilize global oil shipments if Iran retaliates.

• Reuters: What is the U.S. threat to trigger 'snapback' of U.N. sanctions on Iran?

• United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count down to 172 from previous 176

• (Reuters) - Hasan Ayhan followed his wife’s instructions last week and took their savings to buy gold at Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar as Turks scooped up bullion worth $7 billion in a just a fortnight...Turks have traditionally used gold as savings and there may be as much as 5,000 tonnes of it “under mattresses”, with more added after the recent buying spree, Mehmet Ali Yildirimturk, deputy head of an Istanbul gold shops association, said.

• Economist: Without relief or reform, the USPS estimates that it could run out of money sometime between April and October 2021.

• MW: Meanwhile protesters gathered at the home of Postmaster General Louis DeJoy on Saturday to demand his resignation — a significant escalation of public pressure amid a pitched battle over mail-in ballots for the 2020 presidential election.

• Money is just not circulating all that well. So, talk of inflation is probably a bit premature.  Velocity of money 

• YoY US Core consumer price inflation is currently at 1.2%

• Great NEWS! (AP) — New Zealand on Sunday marked 100 days since it stamped out the spread of the coronavirus, a rare bright spot in a world that continues to be ravaged by the disease.
• 
  

• US Jobs grew 1.763 million, beating the consensus estimate of 1.6 million.  The unemployment rate at 10.2% is down from 11.1% in May.

• The US  U-6 Unemployment  rate at 16.5% was down 1.5% from last month's 18%.

• According to Bloomberg US renters are having a bit of a problem. Some 27% missed their payment in July and some 34% have no confidence of being able to make the August payment. Loss of housing is similarly disruptive to both renters and owners on many dimensions.

• Gold will top $3,000, says this firm, one of the first to call the gold bull market of the 20th century

• Economist: Nvidia tries to get its hands on Arm

• Smartphones that use a certain Qualcomm Inc. QCOM chip and run Alphabet Inc.'s GOOG Android operating system have hundreds of vulnerabilities that hackers can exploit to spy on users, according to cybersecurity company Check Point Software Technologies on Thursday.

• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 247, Canada +2 to 47 U.S. Rig Count is down 687 rigs from last year's count of 934, with oil rigs down 588, gas rigs down 100, and miscellaneous rigs up 1 to 2.

• Elon Digging? The machinery could suggest that the Boring Company is setting up to dig a tunnel connecting Los Angeles and Las Vegas,

• Economist: Satellite images from Brazil’s National Space Agency revealed that there were 28% more fires in the Amazon this July compared with last year.

• TIK Tok  The thing spreads faster than Covid-19: TikTok now has 800 million monthly active users around the globe. And it’s far more contagious: Just under half of U.S. teenage internet users have used TikTok. If it were a pathogen, it would be the Black Death. 

Quick Overview is up to date

Lumber: looks like an all time high to me, at least since 1972 -  I have no idea if it was ever higher before. Must have a building boom going on - somewhere.

But where? Or perhaps it's all the paper towels that are being used 😏

The Real Estate Page is up to date, after some 3 years of neglect. Except Dow RE index & HGX index - these two should be up by next week - or so. Other neglected pages to follow...

• Quick Overview   is up to date

• Apple (AAPL) is splitting its stock four for one - great for writing puts. Selling one $400 put will, after the split, only commit $10,000 versus $40,000. Bezos, are you paying attention?

 

• Four out of the five members of the so-called FAANG group – Facebook, Amazon, Apple Netflix and Google – posted record-breaking earnings during the worst slump in a century.

 

• Millions of unemployed Americans are about to lose $600 in additional weekly jobless benefits after the White House and Congress failed to reach an agreement to extend the supplement.

• What are the expected economic effects if 30 million workers have their financial lifeline cut off? Any guesses? 
• In addition, lots of people are going to be “very” disappointment if the much anticipated $1200 check is not forthcoming.

 

• Consumer spending rose 5.6% last month after a record 8.5% jump in May as more businesses, that are now reclosing, had reopened. The two month surge in job gain may have stopped in July..

 

• Bloomberg: The dollar's reign as the world's reserve currency is under threat, Goldman warned.

 

• Starbucks: global same-store sales, fell 40% in Q3. However, customers while visiting less, they're placing bigger orders.

 

• McDonald's is selling a stake in its Japan business and is accelerating U.S. restaurant closures it had planned earlier. Sales are also a bit on the weak side.

 

• (Reuters) - With nearly seven months gone, an ambitious $36.5 billion target for Chinese imports of U.S. farm goods this year may not be quite out of reach, but it’s looking like a big, big stretch. 

 

• 
  Cruising during worldwide pandemic: ICYMI: 4 crew members on Norway cruise ship hospitalized with COVID-19 after it arrived at port of Tromsoe on Friday; operator Hurtigruten says all crew members quarantined on ship and the 177 passengers, who had already disembarked, told to self-isolate

 

• Kids under age 5 may carry a much higher coronavirus viral load than older children and adults: study 

 

• Banning TikTok? Trump may not realize how unpopular this move will be with generally politically indifferent teenagers…