QUICK OVERVIEW

• U.S. Real average hourly earnings rose 0.3 % for year ending March 2017

• CPI rose 2.4 % over the 12 months ending March 2017

• Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 last week to 244,000.

• Unemployment rates decline in 274 metropolitan areas over the year ending February 2017

• Camden and Dallas had highest percent increases in employment for year ended February 2017

• U.S Producer Price Index for final demand goods increased 4.0% over the year ending March 2017 

•  One-third of Americans say real estate is best long-term investment.  Residents of the West, men especially confident in real estate Stocks rank second, with strongest support from higher-income adults.

• U.S. Mar housing starts fell -6.8% to 1.215 million, weaker than expected.

• Mar building permits rose +3.6% to 1.26 million, stronger than expectations of +2.8%.

• U.S. Mar manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.4%, weaker than expexted, and the biggest decline in 7 months.

• U.S. Mar industrial production rose +0.5%, as expected.

• Mar capacity utilization rose +0.4 to 76.1%, as expected..

• The IMF raised its 2017 global GDP forecast to 3.5% from a Jan estimate of 3.4%.

• China Retail Sales (Mar) 10.9% YoY vs 9.7% expected, 10.9% prior

• China Industrial Prod (Mar) 7.6% YoY vs 6.3% expected, 6.0% prior

• Since October, about 89,000 workers in general merchandise stores have lost their jobs, which is more than the number of people employed in the entire US coal industry

• Exhaust cleaning scrubbers will be the cheapest way for larger ships to comply with the 2020 International Maritime Organizations (IMO) 0.5pc sulfur cap on marine fuels, according to BP

• 4/21/2017,  is  the first time since the lights came on, the UK has gone 24 hours without coal-fired generation..
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With the close of DJI below 20530 and DJT below 8914 our opinion of Dow Theory is now bearish.

QUICK OVERVIEW

•  (Reuters) North Korea should halt any plans for nuclear and missile activities "for its own security", a Chinese newspaper said on Wednesday, warning that the United States is making clear it doesn't plan to "co-exist" with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang.

• Following repeated missile tests that drew international criticism, China banned all imports of North Korean coal on Feb. 26, cutting off the country's most important export product.

•  Despite rising global tensions and fears of inflation, gold prices have stayed relatively calm. Reminds me of the adage “never sell a quiet market short”.

• The CME announced on that it is in the final stages of testing a venue for trading spot gold that's based on the blockchain, the distributed-ledger technology that powers the bitcoin network.

• Gold demand continues to grow, consumption by Turkey, India, China and Russia alone have exceeded world global mine supply since 2013.

•  Trump says $ is too strong. He’s also considering reappointing Janet Yellen as Fed chair.

•  (Reuters) Global stocks of corn, wheat, rice and soybeans combined will hit a record 671.1 million tonnes going into the next harvest - the third straight year of historically high surplus, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). That's enough to cover demand from China for about a year.

•  54% of Canadians surveyed expect housing prices to rise indefinitely, only 4% expect price drop in 1 year

• (Economist) In America, Chinese investors bought some 29,000 homes in the 12 months to March 2016 with a total value of $27bn, according to the National Association of Realtors.

•   (AP) " Apple is joining the fiercely competitive race to design self-driving cars, raising the possibility that a company that has already re-shaped culture with its iPhone may try to transform transportation too.

• Elon Musk plans an electric semi truck for local, regional, and long-haul routes. Also on tap: a pickup truck, a compact crossover, and a next-generation convertible roadster.

•  U.S. mass shootings in 2017 = 121, so far..

 

Weekly Charts are up-to-date

Daily Charts are up-to-date

QUICK OVERVIEW

• Republicans voted as a bloc to eliminate the ability of the Senate minority to filibuster Supreme Court nominees - consequence unknown… 

 

• In a symbolic act, Trump launched missiles at the Shayrat base in Syria – reaction mysterious - consequence unknown… 

 

• Trump was quoted as saying he is ready to act alone on North Korea if China does not change the current situation … 

 

• Wall Street's top banks see the Federal Reserve laying out by year-end its plan to scale back its reinvestments in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in an effort to begin shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, a Reuters poll showed Friday. A June rate hike probability has risen to 70.6% from last week’s 62.5%. 

 

• The latest U.S Employment Situation report was a disappointment. Only 98,000 non-farm payrolls were added in March - a far cry from estimates of 180,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2%. However the US unemployment rate dropped two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.5%--the lowest level since May 2007

 

•  Inventory-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.28 in February but down from 1.36 in the same period a year ago. 

 

• Total outstanding U.S consumer credit increased by $15.20 billion in February 

 

• (Zillow) U.S. renters would need a raise of about $168 a year in 2017 just to keep up with expected rent increases over the next 12 months as rental affordability concerns persist 
• (Zillow) Nationally, families can expect to spend $447 extra a month moving to a three-bedroom home from one with two bedrooms, according to Zillow. That equates to a 50 % increase in their monthly mortgage payment. 

 

• The UK’s trade balance widened in February to -£12.46 billion from -£11.98 billion in January.

 

•  The global steel market will tighten in coming years and eventually go into a deficit in 2020, says research firm BMI. 

 

•  Fitch Ratings forecasts oil prices to average US$52.50 per barrel in 2017, up from US$45 last year 

 

• Dry Bulk Ship Values rose by 20% in just 30 days, as demand is growing among ship owners, encouraged by the market’s recovery since the start of 2017. 

 

•  Japans unemployment rate at 2.8%. Over 10% of the country’s firms admit that some workers frequently put in more than 100 hours of overtime in a month 

 

• Tim Cook: Without more women, US will lose tech lead…

 

•  Do vegetarians live longer? Probably, but not because they’re vegetarian  Put more simply, when we crunched the data we found vegetarians did not have a lower risk of early death compared with their meat-eating counterparts. 

 

• (Economist) On average, making 1kg of fabric generates 23kg of greenhouse gases.. Global clothing production doubled between 2000 and 201

 

• Astronomers have detected an atmosphere around an Earth-like planet beyond our solar system for the first time: the super-Earth planet GJ 1132b in the Southern constellation Vela, at a distance of 39 light-years from Earth

Dow Theory

Considering the age of this Bull-market and various  caution signals -

we are moving our  Dow Theory reversal points a bit closer.

QUICK OVERVIEW

• (NYT) Robert J. Shiller: Caution Signals Are Blinking for the Trump Bull Market

• Trimmed mean PCE, an alternative measure of U.S. core inflation, rose at an annualized rate of 1.96% in February. 

• Growth in U.S. real gross domestic product for Q4 is revised upward, to 2.1% from 1.9% 

• (Economist) American net farm revenue dropped from $120bn in 2013 to an estimated $62 billion this year 

• (FT) US hotels and airlines slash prices as Trump policies hit tourism.

• Per capita auto and student debt rose in fourth quarter of 2016, but at a slower pace.

•  Delinquencies on auto loans are rising to worrying levels in some southern cities. 

•  (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth slowed less than previously reported in the fourth quarter as robust consumer spending provided a boost that was partially offset by the largest gain in imports in two years. 

• (WP) The Environmental Protection Agency has issued a new, more detailed plan for laying off 25 percent of its employees and scrapping 56 programs including pesticide safety, water runoff control, and environmental cooperation with Mexico and Canada under the North American Free Trade Agreement. 

•  China's Ministry of Defense indicates the launch of the country's first domestically built aircraft carrier could come soon. 

• (Bill McKibben) ‏ 2016 was hottest year recorded on earth. Over those 12 months the 4 networks devoted 50 combined minutes to climate. 

• After Congress reversed internet privacy rules from the Obama admin, Comcast, AT&T, and Verizon have said they will not sell personal web browsing histories. 

• Who says knitting is for geriatrics? Thanks to a new Kickstarter project, it could be the newest hobby for millennials, too. Meet Kniterate, the digital knitting machine that promises to bring fashion fabrication back to your neighborhood. The post Create your own clothing using digital knitting machine Kniterate appeared first on Digital Trends.