QUICK OVERVIEW

• Whatever might be going on in the White House, investors are keeping their faith in Trump -- so far. 

•  Mexican newspapers report Mexican Parliament anticipates to shift corn/soy imports to South America and were ready to source soybeans/corn from Brazil/Argentina.

•  German Consumer Price Index rose 1.9% 
• YoY German GDP came in at a seasonally adjusted plus 0.4% in Q4. 
• YoY the growth rate for 2016 was 1.9%, which was the strongest rate for half a decade. 

• (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump's vow to roll back government regulations at least 75 percent is causing anxiety for some pharmaceutical executives that a less robust Food and Drug Administration would make it harder to secure insurance coverage for pricey new medicines… "People often argue that the FDA is too restrictive," said Roger Perlmutter, head of research and development at Merck & Co Inc (MRK.N). "We have the sense that the balance is pretty right ... you have to have a well-characterized risk/benefit profile." 

• Solar now provides twice as many jobs as the coal industry: The solar industry is adding jobs much faster than the overall economy, but still makes up just over 1% of the country's total power supply. Clearly, there's room for growth.

•  House Repubs voted to eliminate the only federal agency that makes sure voting machines can’t be hacked

• Republicans terminate the EPA https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/861/text

•  (Fortune) In a new interview with Quartz, Microsoft founder Bill Gates makes a rather stunning argument—that robots who replace human workers should incur taxes equivalent to that worker’s income taxes. “Right now, the human worker who does, say, $50,000 worth of work in a factory, that income is taxed . . . If a robot comes in to do the same thing, you’d think that we’d tax the robot at a similar level.”

• Catherine Rampell: National Endowment for the Arts budget, which Trump wants to eliminate: $148m Estimated annual cost (to NYC) to protect Trump Tower: $183m 

• The 10 biggest defense budgets in 2016 added to over $1.1 trillion. The U.S lead the way with $605 billion, followed by China with $145 billion.

•  U.S. annual inflation rate rose to 2.5% in January, from 2.1% in December.
  

Trump’s Most Chilling Economic Lie
 by    Joseph E. Stiglitz

The very Americans who have been among the losers of globalization stand to be among the losers of a reversal of globalization—including a trade war. History cannot be put into reverse. Technology has proceeded in a certain way based on the premise of global supply chains. Disrupting the global supply chains would be costly and would increase the prices of goods that Americans buy—especially the mass-marketed goods that have kept prices so low for the goods purchased by ordinary Americans.


 (IT) Inflation  = more money chasing fewer goods, and therefore prices increase...

Baltic Exchange Dry Index etc is up-to-date

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• (WSJ) The Vanguard Group topped $4 trillion in assets for the first time at the end of January after a year in which it pulled in more money than all of its rivals combined.

 

•  U.S. Home ownership at 63.5% is the lowest since the 1980’s. China’s foreign currency reserves fell below $3 trillion, the lowest level since 2011. 
• China’s imports rose 16.7%, while exports rose 7.9%. 

 

• Brent crude at $56 as Opec sticks to one of the deepest cuts in its history. Mr. Trump is promising a “phenomenal” announcement on taxes in the next few weeks. NYSE short interest ratio is currently at 4.3 days.

•  QUICK OVERVIEW

• (Guardian) A new survey of business leaders found that 58% said the Brexit vote was already having a negative impact on their firm. Just 11% said it had helped business.

• (MarketWatch) -- President Donald Trump on Friday signed executive orders that would start a process of rolling back the fiduciary rule and the Dodd-Frank bank reform law. "Today we are signing core principles for regulating the United States financial system," Trump said.  
• Consequently the  Dow regains 20,000 level as broader market ends firmly higher on bank rally. Goldman Sachs (GS) was the biggest gainer among Dow components, jumping 4.6%, 

•  (Reuters) France's far-right party leader Marine Le Pen on Sunday told thousands of flag-waving supporters chanting "This is our country!" that she alone could protect them against Islamic fundamentalism and globalization if elected president in May. 

• Japan is hosting the 2020 Olympic Games and is looking to derive the medals from recyclable electronics. In all, organizers hope to collect 40 kilograms of gold, 2,920 kilograms of silver and 2,994 kilograms of bronze. 

• The "failing" NYT passes 3 million paying subscribers, most in history, plus 220 million unique visitors in November. 

•  An attack on the Dark Web left a whopping 20 percent of it in shambles. On Friday, a vigilante managed to hack into Dark Web hosting service, Freedom Hosting II, after realizing that it was allowing for child pornography sites.

Baltic Exchange Dry Index etc. is up to date

Overview is up-to-date

The decision by the Trump admin to withdraw from TTP (Trans Pacific Partnership) trade deal, and intentions to renegotiate NAFTA has created a major concern for US ag exporters. A trade war with your best customers (China biggest buyer of Soy / Mexico biggest buyer of corn) is historically not “that good” for business…

(The Hill)  The U.S. and Mexico are denying reports that President Donald Trump told his Mexican counterpart Enrique Peña Nieto that U.S. forces will handle the "bad hombres down there" if the Mexican authorities don't.

 

Corn CPI Adjusted

 Soy CPI Adjusted

Cheaper renewables to halt coal and oil demand growth from 2020: research

The falling cost of electric vehicle and solar technology will halt demand growth for oil and coal from 2020, according to research published on Thursday, posing a threat to fossil fuel companies unprepared for the transition. 

 Coal

 

 

 

 Oil

 

 Oil CPI adj.

Trump puts U.S. food, farm companies on edge over Mexico trade

Mexico is one of the top three markets for U.S. farm production.

Corn

While the Market trend is clearly up, the  Vix and Ratio look a bit scary.

Dow Theory is up-to-date

Ship owners should start planning for the 2020 sulphur cap, as time frame is closing rapidly says DNV GL

One the “hottest” debates in the shipping industry over the past couple of weeks has been the recent decision by the IMO, to enforce clean-fuels burning from all vessels from 2020 onwards. Can you detail us the future course of action towards the abolition of Heavy Fuel Oils?
The global 0.5% sulphur cap will be introduced in 2020, and up to 70,000 ships may be affected by the regulation according to IMO estimates.

Baltic Exchange Dry Index etc. is up to date

 QUICK OVERVIEW

• YoY in 2016 Japan's consumer prices dropped for the first time in four years  by 0.3 percent,  in a sign the country is still grappling with deflationary pressure despite the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s numerous monetary easing measures 

• Trumps cancellation of the TPP means the rules for global commerce will increasingly be set by other nations -- not by the United States. More importantly, with the United States absent from RCEP, considerable trade will be diverted away from the US.

• The British economy grew at the fastest pace against any of its G7 peers in 2016, despite the second half of the year passing under the shadow of Brexit.  

• Spain's unemployment fell to 18.63%t at the end of 2016 as opposed to the 20.9% in 2015. 

• The DJIA on Wednesday closed above the psychological mark of 20,000 for the first time -- the other two major indices also finished at record highs, boosted by a batch of generally positive earnings reports. 

•  China's fiscal revenue grew 4.5 % YoY in 2016, to 15.96 trillion yuan (around 2.33 trillion U.S. dollars), according to preliminary figures released by the Ministry of Finance. 

• Trump has picked longtime Republican FCC Commissioner "and enemy" of net neutrality Ajit Pai to become FCC chairman. 

• The median home value in the U.S. is now $193,800, according to Zillow's December Real Estate Market Reports. Rents grew 1.5 percent annually to a $1,403 median monthly payment. 
•  U.S Existing-home sales ran at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 5.49 million, down 2.8% from Nov. 
• Supply is at 1.65 million homes available, the lowest inventory since 1999. 
• At the current sales pace there is 3.6 months’ worth of Inventory. 

• Trump signs executive order to approve the Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines. 

• Israel approves plans for 2,500 new settlement homes in the West Bank 

• White House press secretary Sean Spicer. “The U.S. is going to make sure we protect our interests” in the South China Sea. 

• Japanese exports grew 5.4% in December. Fastest pace since Jul'15.

Baltic Exchange Dry Index etc. is up to date

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• (MF) Only one-third of American adults have an IRA, and just 18% actively contribute to their account to save for retirement, according to a 2016 survey by financial-services organization TIAA.

• (Fortune) Fewer than 2% of Indians have credit cards. 

•  Société General projects a global sugar stock-to-use ratio of 19.6% in 2016/17 and 18.9% in 2017/18 

•   GMS, the world’s leading cash buyer of ships declared that the worst seem to be over for the ship recycling industry. 

•  The median home value in the U.S. is now $192,500, according to Zillow's November Real Estate Market Report, just 2 percent shy of 2007 peak. 

• Two major cities in central China have further tightened housing purchase restrictions in the latest bid to rein in rising house prices. 

• Trump/Putin agree: Let's revive the nuclear arms race… Trump and Putin fired the starting gun on a new nuclear arms race as they both vowed to launch a major expansion of their countries' arsenals. Dumbfounding nuclear experts with his “tweet” that the U.S. should "expand its nuclear capability," something no president has called for in decades…

•  Cesium-134, the so-called fingerprint of Fukushima, was measured in seawater samples from the west coast of the United States and a salmon sampled from Canada, researchers said. 

• (Reuters) Asia will post its biggest net refining capacity addition in three years in 2017, further boosting demand for crude in the world's biggest and fastest growing oil consuming region. 

•  Just when we think you’ve got it figured out...... by Peter Levine: The End of Cloud Computing..

 
Happy Holidays 

The USDA's projected 2016/17 world sugar stocks-to-use ratio of 17.7% would be the lowest in more than 20 years ...

Baltic Exchange Dry Index etc.

is up-to-date

Donald Trump seems to have brought the techniques of Twitter to the construction of his government. “Trolling” on Twitter is defined as “making a deliberately offensive online posting with the aim of upsetting someone”. In this spirit, Mr Trump has placed a climate-change denier in charge of environmental protection, an opponent of the minimum wage as labour secretary, a conspiracy theorist in charge of the National Security Council and a protectionist at the commerce department. The pièce de résistance could be the appointment of Rex Tillerson, a recipient of the Kremlin’s Order of Friendship, as secretary of state.

 (FT) Gideon Rachman

QUICK OVERVIEW

•  China flies nuclear bomber over South China Sea to 'send a message' to Donald Trump
•  US officials say flight is in response to President-elect’s phone call with Taiwan's leader
• 
  
• Hmm. Is America about to enter a new golden age under (I'm, like a smart person) Trump  ? Another fresh all-time high of the skyrocketing Dow seems to says so.
•  
• Libor Fed Fund spread is looking interesting 

• Russia and others join OPEC in a rare, coordinated push to cut oil output...

• One in six Americans now believes that military rule would be a good idea...

• The CIA concluded that Russia intervened in the 2016 election to help elect (I'm, like a smart person) Trump...

• Trump (I'm, like a smart person) is expected to name the CEO of Exxon Mobil Tillerson as the country's top diplomat.HE RUNS WORLDS LARGEST OIL COMPANY, has extensive business dealings with Putin & Russia, and favors doing away with sanctions. In 2013, Putin awarded Tillerson the Order of Friendship, Russia’s highest honors for foreigners.

• (NYT) Trump (I'm, like a smart person), in Louisiana, says he will end energy regulations…

• China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 2.3% YoY in November, up from October's 2.1% the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced.

• (WP) Trump's (I'm, like a smart person) transition team has issued a list of 74 questions for the Energy Department, asking agency officials to identify which employees and contractors have worked on forging an international climate pact as well as domestic efforts to cut the nation’s carbon output.

• Gold futures fell on Thursday as the European Central Bank' s decision on quantitative easing supported the U.S. dollar

• (Paul Krugman) Another metric: Trump would have to do one Carrier-sized deal a week for 30 years to save as many jobs as Obama's auto bailout

• (Reuters) - Britain's Royal Mint and leading U.S.-based derivatives exchange CME Group have teamed up to create a blockchain-based digital platform for dealing in gold in a drive to cut the costs involved in trading the precious metal.

• Economists at Zillow arepredicting a trend reversal in 2017, due partly to expected policy changes under President-elect Trump and partly to the ongoing housing recovery. Experts there say 2017 will see more millennial home ownership, more driving and rising construction costs.

• (Zillow) Experts Predict Housing Market Will Soon Favor Buyers

• The median home value in the U.S. is now $191,200, up 6.2 percent since last October, according to Zillow's October Real Estate Market Report

• - Home values rose 6.2 percent over the past year to a Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) of $191,200 in October.

• - Rents rose 1.4 percent over the past year to a Zillow Rent Index (ZRI) of $1,402.

• - There are 6 percent fewer homes for sale than a year ago, with Boston and Indianapolis reporting the greatest drop in inventory.

• - Most experts surveyed predict the housing market will shift from the current seller's market to a buyer's market by 2019.

Weekly Charts are up-to-date   

Real Estate is up-to-date

Daily Charts are up-to-date

Baltic Exchange Dry Index etc.




is up-to-date

QUICK OVERVIEW

• (NYT) A quarter of India’s 1.25 billion people are younger than 15. Every month, until 2030, nearly a million Indians will turn 18 European Central Bank 

• (ECB) President Mario Draghi said 2016 marked the first year when gross domestic product (GDP) in the Eurozone recovered to above its pre-crisis level since 2008.

• (Economist) Global wealth distribution: Where you fit in - If you had only $2,220 to your name, you might not think yourself terribly fortunate. But you would be wealthier than half the world’s population. With $71,560 or more, you’d be in the top tenth. If you were lucky enough to own over $744,400, as 18m Americans do, you are a member of the global 1% that voters everywhere are rebelling against. Some of those railing against the global elite probably do not know they belong to it.

• (538) 82% of U.S. middle school students who weren’t able to determine the difference between sponsored content and a real news article, according to a new Stanford University study.

• (Bloomberg/538) $146 million, estimated size of the market for aloe vera products in the U.S. Well, for products that claim to contain aloe vera, anyway. It turns out that store-brand aloe products sold in Target, Walmart and CVS didn’t contain any aloe at all, according to a lab analysis sponsored by Bloomberg News, despite listing it as one of the top two ingredients.

• The Federal Trade Commission struck a blow for reality when it declared that homeopathic products may no longer make claims to treat any condition unless those claims are backed up by hard scientific evidence.

• (Economist) Arctic sea ice: On the rocks Scientists are interested in sea ice as a marker—and amplifier—of climate change. In recent years the melting season in the Arctic has been ending later in the year. As a result, the total sea-ice extent in September 2016 was over 3m sq km smaller than in September 1980—though not quite as small as in 2012, the worst year so far. In the Arctic, it is around 2m sq km below average, the lowest figure on record for November (Economist)

• Donald Trump said this week that on his first day in office, America would quit the TPP, a trade pact nearly a decade in the making. It would have covered almost 40% of the global economy. The deal was meant to be strategic as well as economic; its other signatories consider it pointless without American participation. Observers expect China to fill the void and assume economic leadership in Asia.

• CME Group, announced it set a total open interest record of 116,999,368 on Nov. 23, 2016. The new record surpassed the previous open interest record of 116,427,935 contracts set on June 9, 2016. Interest Rate open interest also hit a record of 69,493,548 contracts, surpassing the previous open interest record of 68,147,202 set on Nov. 22, 2016.