Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer's hope that someone else -- who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive -- will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century.

Quick Overview

• KO profit was 79 cents a share, exceeding the 77-cent average estimate.

• MoM Japan's coincident index posted an increase of 2.9 points in December, the first expansion in two months.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia  left rates unchanged at 4.25%.

• Disney’s net income in the October through December period rose to $1.46 billion, or 80 cents per share, from $1.30 billion, or 68 cents per share, a year earlier. Q1 Profit rose 12%.

• Americans accelerated their borrowing in December for the second straight month, running up more credit card debt and taking out loans to buy cars and attend school. Consumer borrowing rose by $19.3 billion.

• BP hiked its quarterly dividend by 14 %

• China’s gold imports from Hong Kong more than trebled in 2011 from the year before, hitting a record 428 tonnes.

An orderly EMU break-up, à la Française
"Even though our American and Chinese competitors have an interest in the survival of the single currency, the euro is condemned to an uncontrollable explosion sooner or late".

Quick Overview

• As cold temperatures in Eastern Europe stretching all the way into France feed wheat concern about supplies there. "It's just too cold, for too long, with too little snow for nothing to have happened," ABN Amro says.

• (MarketWatch) -- A trustee seeking to distribute customer securities overseen by bankrupt MF Global Inc. said Monday that they have traced a majority of the cash that disappeared from the commodities broker. "The trustee's investigators have now traced a majority of the cash transactions, totaling more than $105 billion, made in and out of MF Global Inc. in the last week before bankruptcy and are completing the process of tracing the remaining transactions," the trustee said.

• (FT) The richest 400 Americans now have assets equal to the poorest 140 million.

• The GDP per capita of Indonesia has grown 17.7% throughout last year to 3,542 U.S. dollars from 3,010 U.S. dollars in the previous year.

• In the 12 months to January, Australia’s inflation gauge rose by 2.2%.

• The value of trade cargo handled by the Shanghai customs for the first time surpassed the US$800 billion mark last year, hitting $812.3 billion, 18.6 per cent more than in 2010, Xinhua reports.

• Customs of south eastern Xiamen opposite Taiwan recorded a 21.3 per cent increase in 2011 trade value year on year to US$103.3 billion last year, which for the first time surpassed US$100 billion, Xinhua reports.

• Yum's net income in Q4 ended December 31 grew 30% to $356 million, or 75 cents per share -- topping analysts' average view. Chinese sales rose 21%. China is Yum's biggest earnings driver, accounting for just over 40 % of overall profits.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• (FT) The Costa Concordia and the less-known Ponta de Madeira incident have prompted disquiet over maritime industry’s pursuit of scale efficiencies.

• Seventy one per cent of all the new power generating capacity in the EU last year came from solar panels, wind turbines or other renewable energy sources.

• The U.S. Labor Department said the advance figure of seasonally adjusted initial claims for jobless benefits was 367,000 in the week ending Jan. 28, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week. That helped to push the unemployment rate down to 8.3 percent and the number of unemployed down to 12.8 million.

• The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization has said global food output must rise 70 percent by 2050 to feed a world population expected to grow to 9 billion from 7 billion now and as increasingly wealthy consumers in developing economies eat more meat. Cargill agrees.

Quick Overview

• The CME said it would create a $100 million fund to protect farmers and ranchers from losing their funds in the event of another collapse like that of MF Global. This fund, which will not be active until March, does not protect those customers affected by MF Global’s demise. It also will not cover hedge funds or other individual traders, who make up a large percentage of futures business. Some $1.2 billion in MF Global customer money are “very mysteriously” still missing. Someone with oversight has suggested “evaporation” as cause.

• China's PMI, a preliminary readout of the country's manufacturing activity, rose to 50.5% in January of 2012, the highest level since October.

• Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell reported profits of 28.6 billion US dollars for 2011, a jump of 54 % YoY.

• Republicans Have More Orgasms, According to Match.com Sex Survey.

• The industrial producer prices index fell by 0.2% in Eurozone nations in December as compared with November.

• How to destroy your brand in 24 hours -- Susan G. Komen

• The German unemployment rate fell to 6.7% from 6.8% in December, a record low since its unification 20 years ago.

• India's economic growth has been revised down to 8.4 %t for 2010-11 fiscal year from the earlier estimate of 8.5%.

Quick Overview

• (EIU) wages are growing at 12% per year in China.

• Globalstar, (GSAT), announced its commercial and recreational customers are experiencing significant improvements in Globalstar's satellite telephone service. The improvements to Globalstar’s service are the result of the company's recently deployed second-generation satellites.

• Qualcomm’s revenues rose 40% YoY and 14% sequentially. Net income rose 20% YoY and 33% sequentially.

• JDSU, excluding onetime items, earned 15 cents a share in Q2. Analysts had forecast JDS Uniphase to earn 10 cents a share.

• Volkswagen said Wednesday that its U.S. sales soared 47.9% last month.

• Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Germany's Bundesbank has entirely exhausted its stock of private assets and run up a quarter of a trillion Euros in liabilities propping up the Eurozone system, testing the political limits of EMU solidarity in Germany.

Quick Overview

• Dutch pigeon sold for record £209,000: http://tgr.ph/xO92Oo

• The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of single-family home prices in 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.7 %, a bigger drop than the 0.5% expected. The decrease added on to the 0.7% decline seen in October from September. Home prices in Atlanta dropped 12% last year -- the most in 20 metro areas. Detroit saw the biggest gains, at 4%.

• The Conference Board said consumer attitudes fell to 61.1 in January from a revised 64.8 the month before, as Americans turned gloomy about the job market and their income prospects.

• (Bloomberg) Imagine an industry on a roll. Its income surpassed the $100 billion mark last year for the first time. On top of these riches, those in the business got an additional $25 billion or so in federal handouts. The 1 percenters of Wall Street? Not even close. The beneficiaries are America’s farmers, or to be more accurate, the wealthy owners of very big farms.

• ARM Holdings (ARMH) reported quarterly sales of $217.41million up 21% YoY.

• Joblessness in the 17 countries that use the euro rose to 10.4%

• Biogen said its Q4 earnings rose 25%

• China Manufacturing PMI 50.5 vs 49.8 expected.

• Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) net income fell to $177 million, or 38 cents a share, from $416 million, or 91 cents, a year earlier.

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- Russia has exported close to 20 million metric tons of wheat in the 2011-2012 marketing year and has “very little grain left,” K.C. Suresh, head of grains at Olam International, told analysts.

• At MF Global, officials hunting for an estimated $1.2 billion in missing customer money increasingly believe that much of it might never be recovered. The findings so far suggest that the money "vaporized" as a result of chaotic trading at MF Global.
• Investors and traders reduced commodity trading by 19% in 2011. The flight was the biggest in at least 12 years, outpacing the departure seen in 2008 during the financial crisis.

• The December U.S consumer savings rate rose to 4% from 3.5% in November

• GDP of the Philippines grew by only 3.75 in 2011 or less than one-half of its 2010 growth of 7.6%.

• Standard and Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of 13 major Italian local governments, including the cities of Rome, Milan, Florence, Bologna and Genoa, from A to BBB+.

• The BDI (Baltic Dry Index), is at 702 points, down by 24 on the day. It’s been the worst start of the year for years. This January is proving to be a very difficult month for ship owners, as a result of newbuilding deliveries, especially in the Capesize sector. Stocks of shipping Companies however are performing quite a bit better.

Quick Overview

• Brazil’s cuts benchmark interest rate to 10.5%
• Brazil's unemployment rate fell to a record-low 4.7% in December from the 5.3% in the same period in 2010

• French consumers' sentiment improved to minus 57 this month from minus 61 in December but "remains notably below their long term average."

• Korea’s business survey index , which gauges local manufacturers' assessment of current business conditions, fell 2 points MoM to 78 in January.

• Netflix, shares rose 21% to $115.14 on the back of strong fourth-quarter results

• Japanese retail sales rose 2.5%
• YoY Japan's consumer price index fell 0.1% in December

• Starbucks Q1 profit rose 10% to $382.1 million, or 50 cents a share, up from $346.6 million, or 45 cents a share, in the same 2011 period. Revenue rose 16% to a record $3.4 billion. Comparable store sales worldwide were up 9%.

• 3M reported net earnings of $954 million, or $1.35 per share, compared with $928 million, or $1.28 per share, a year earlier.

• Nokia sold well over 1 million Windows Phone units in Q4 of 2011. That may have nearly doubled Microsoft's smartphone market share. Nokia said it lost almost $1.4 billion in Q4, compared with a profit of 745 million Euros a year earlier. Sales at Nokia fell 21% to 10 billion Euros from 12.65 billion Euros a year earlier. Operating profit fell by more than half during the period to 478 million Euros, from 1.1 billion Euros a year earlier.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. economy has been "expanding moderately", so the Fed's expects to keep rates low through "late 2014"

• The Department of Energy said: crude oil stocks rose by 3.6 million barrels in the week ending January 20. Gasoline stocks fell by 0.4 million. Distillate stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels.

• Britain's economy grew 0.9% during 2011.

• S. Korea’s GDP expanded 0.4 % in Q4, slower than a revised on-quarter growth rate of 0. 8% in Q3.

• New Zealand's central bank left the interest rate unchanged at 2.5 percent.

• Singapore's CPI eased slightly to 5.5 % in December from 5.7 percent in the previous month.

• "To infinity and beyond!" is the theme of Gingrich's latest campaign pitch: a lunar colony within eight years.

• Africa and Asia are moving ahead of Europe in the development of their digital infrastructure according to the head of France's largest telecommunications equipment supplier.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Corporate profitability is at an all time high. Nearly 60% of S&P listed companies have so far beaten earnings estimates for the last quarter. However P/E ratios are at 1990 lows.
• The US Supreme Court overturned a California law that set strict standards for slaughtering and selling the meat of sick and injured animals.
  
  
• Apple reported record quarterly net profits of $13.06bn, or $13.87 per share, well ahead of analyst expectations of $10.07 per share

• Romney, and his wife Ann paid an effective tax rate of 13.9 % in 2010 on an adjusted gross income of $21.6 million.

• The Richmond Fed said manufacturing activity in its six-state region increased in January, mirroring improvements seen in similar regional indexes. The bank said its current-activity index rose to 12 from 3.

• Verizon (VZ) reported adjusted earnings of 52 cents a share -- a penny below the consensus forecast.

• Sales of homes in the UK fell by 11% last year.

• (Spiegel) The EU has banned oil imports from Iran to try and pressure the regime into making concessions over its controversial nuclear program. But even though the Iranian economy is suffering, Tehran is refusing to give ground. Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guards are profiting from the sanctions.

• Johnson & Johnson Q4 profit was barely a tenth what it made a year ago as a slew of charges for recalls, litigation and an acquisition dragged down income. But the health care giant's revenue jumped last year, ending an unprecedented two-year decline.

• Unemployment dropped in 37 U.S. states in December, indicating the improvement in the job market is broad based as the economy picks up.

• China's crude steel output increased 8.9% YoY

• Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said the country's per capita GDP is expected to reach 1,000 U.S. dollars in 2013 from merely 830 U.S. dollars at the end of 2010.

• Argentina denies rumors of corn and soy export bans.

• U.S.A. Today: Newt Gingrich claims that "more people have been put on food stamps by Barack Obama than any president in American history." He's wrong. More were added under Bush than under Obama, according to the most recent figures.

Quick Overview

• According to Bloomberg, the average prediction by analysts of the number of Nokia Lumia smartphones believed to be sold so far is 1.3 million. (Numbers on Thursday)

• Recently-launched ETFs are struggling to attract investors. Of the 308 ETFs launched last year, 86% of them failed to draw in at least $30 million in assets under management.

• (Bloomberg) U.S. farmers, poised to ship record beef cargoes for a second straight year, may get a further boost as Japan, once their biggest overseas customer, considers easing trade curbs imposed after an outbreak of mad-cow disease.

• Orange juice futures rose to a record due to speculation the United States might ban Brazilian juice imports for using a fungicide that US regulations prohibit.

Some See Two New Gilded Ages, Raising Global Tensions
But there is another force that is reshaping the global economy today, and the Goldman executives who toasted Mr. O’Neill are a reflection of that: the rise, in the developed Western economies, of the “1 percent” and the creation of what many are calling a new gilded age. In the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution and the opening of the American frontier created the Gilded Age and the robber barons who ruled it. Today, as the world economy is being reshaped by the technology revolution and globalization, the resulting economic transformation is creating a new gilded age and a new plutocracy.

Quick Overview

• Microsoft (MSFT) posted Q4 income of $6.62 billion, or 78 cents a share - beating the 76-cent average estimate.

• Citrus-greening disease is threatening OJ crops in Texas.

• The National Association of Realtors said December RE sales rose 5% to 4.61 million. For all of 2011, sales rose 1.7% to 4.26 million - compared to the 2005 peak of 7.08 million. YoY The Median sales prices in December fell 2.5% to $164,500. Inventories fell 9.2% to 2.38 million, which represents 6.2 months of supply.

• Vodafone (VOD) won its long-running battle with India's tax office over a $2.5bn.

• Rains in Argentina this weekend appear a complete flop for prime production areas.
• Reports have Rio Grande do Sul losing 60% of summer crops. Producers who harvested 162 bpa corn, now appear to be getting 76 bpa.

• Britain's economy is in the grip of its first double-dip recession for 35 years, City forecasters believe.

How U.S. Lost Out on iPhone Work
When Barack Obama joined Silicon Valley’s top luminaries for dinner in California last February, each guest was asked to come with a question for the president.
But as Steven P. Jobs of Apple spoke, President Obama interrupted with an inquiry of his own: what would it take to make iPhones in the United States?
Not long ago, Apple boasted that its products were made in America. Today, few are. Almost all of the 70 million iPhones, 30 million iPads and 59 million other products Apple sold last year were manufactured overseas.
Why can’t that work come home? Mr. Obama asked.

Mr. Jobs’s reply was unambiguous. “Those jobs aren’t coming back,” he said, according to another dinner guest.

Quick Overview

• U.S. average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from November to December

• GM is again the world's largest automaker. Boosted by its Chevrolet brand, sales rise 7.6% to 9 million two years after its emergence from bankruptcy.
  
  
  

• (FT) A recent opinion poll conducted by GlobeScan indicated that support for the free enterprise system had fallen to about 60% in the US. Ten years ago it was at 80%.

• SABMiller (SBMRY) said group revenue rose 7% in the quarter, boosted by strong performance in Asia, Africa and Latin America. (See How Beer Saved the World :)

• MacauHub.com reports that Macau gaming and gambling revenues in 2011 were an almost five-fold increase on revenues in 2006.

• Washington Post raised its annual dividend to $9.80 from $9.40

• (T) BP is likely to agree a $25bn (£16bn) settlement with the US government over the Gulf of Mexico disaster, meaning the trial for civil claims against the oil giant will not proceed.

• Revenue at Union Pacific rose 16 % to $5.11 billion in the quarter, compared with the analysts’ average estimate of $5.06 billion

• Intel reported full-year revenue of $54 billion, operating income of $17.5 billion, net income of $12.9 billion and EPS of $2.39 -- all records. The company generated approximately $21 billion in cash from operations, paid dividends of $4.1 billion and used $14.1 billion to repurchase 642 million shares of stock.

• IBM reported a Q4 profit of $5.5 billion, or $4.62 a share, compared with a profit of $5.3 billion, or $4.18 a share, for the year-earlier.

• Google reported a 6% gain in Q4 earnings, missing Wall Street's expectations – stock is down 10%.
• U.S. online advertising spending will surpass print ad spending for the first time in 2012, according to a forecast by media research firm eMarketer

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer price index fell by 0.1% in December.
• U.S. industrial production rose by 0.4% in December
• The National Association of Home Builders reported that its housing confidence index rose 4 points to 25 in December, reaching its highest level in 4-1/2 years.

• The unemployment rate in Greece is 19% and rising. GDP has contracted by 12.5% since 2008 and is expected to fall by another 3% this year.

• PayPal added 1m new accounts per month in 2011, and closed Q4 with 106m registered accounts.

• Goldman Sachs announced higher-than-expected Q4 profit of $978 million, or $1.84 per share, compared with a gain of $2.2 billion last year.

• Australia's unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2% in December

• Brazil cuts key rate to 10.5% as expected.

• Chinas property prices fell 0.3% in December, and unsold inventories have reached the highest level in recent history, raising concerns monetary tightening may have gone too far.

• The IMF attempts to increase bail out resources by 500bn to tackle Eurozone contagion that will see Britain stump up a further £15bn, while German finance minister doubts the US will support the plan.

• Saturday marks the 2nd anniversary of the (U.S.) Citizens United ruling handed down by the Supreme Court. It gave corporations 1st amendment rights to spend unlimited money to support or defeat candidates for office.

• Moody’s raised Indonesia’s rating to Baa3 from Ba1

Quick Overview

• China fourth-quarter GDP grows 8.9%
• China’s Industrial output rose 12.8% YoY -- trade expected 12.2%

• U.K. CPI fell to 4.2% in December from 4.8% in November

• Annual inflation in the Eurozone went down to 2.7% in December

• Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang resigns, stock up 5%

• Moody's confirmed that it decided to maintain top triple-A credit rating for France

US undermined by leaks

Quick Overview

• Yields on German short-term debt fell below zero last week, meaning investors accept a negative return for debt from Deutschland, after S&P confirmed downgrades for France and Austria to double-A-plus. S&P also lowered Italy and Spain two notches, to triple-B-plus and single-A, respectively.
• Could the euro zone’s bailout fund, EFSF, now lose its AAA rating, after France, the fund's second-largest guarantor, lost its top-notch rating.
  
  
  
  

• Fed: The decline in U.S. house prices has wiped out $7 trillion in home equity. 1 in 5 U.S. homeowners is still under water.

• Alan Krueger: "The increase in the share of income going to the top one percent people from 1979 to 2007 exceeds the total amount received by the bottom 44 percent households," he noted, adding that "as the consequence of the shift, the middle class has shrunk".

• Bloomberg: Companies in the S&P 500 will raise dividends by 11.5% on average this year.

• Bloomberg: Earnings for the S&P 500 are forecast to climb 10.7% to 105 in 2012.

• Ernst & Young slashed Britain’s 2012 GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to just 0.2%.

• Spain’s Consumer prices rose by 2.4% YoY in December.

• Mainland China imported almost 102.8 metric tons of Gold in November, valued at about $5.4 billion.
• The opulent, gold-garnished menu concocted for guests at the Golden Globes awards ceremony in Beverly Hills today (NZT) has already prompted some observers to choke.

The Perils of 2012Joseph E. Stiglitz
The good news is that addressing these long-term problems would actually help to solve the short-term problems. Increased investment to retrofit the economy for global warming would help to stimulate economic activity, growth, and job creation. More progressive taxation, in effect redistributing income from the top to the middle and bottom, would simultaneously reduce inequality and increase employment by boosting total demand. Higher taxes at the top could generate revenues to finance needed public investment, and to provide some social protection for those at the bottom, including the unemployed.

Quick Overview

• The USDA put corn ending stocks at 846 million bushels, down 2 million from the month prior and 282 million under a year ago. U.S. corn stocks are very small at 24.4 days' supply. That's historically very, very low. Globally corn stocks are at 53.9-day supply, down 1.5 days from last year and a 38-year low. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio remained unchanged from last month at 6.7% while global stocks-to-use ratio only increased slightly to 14.8%.
• (Bloomberg) Corn crops in Brazil and Argentina, which produce 30 percent of the world’s exports, will lose 11 million metric tons of output after a drought caused “irreversible” damage, forecaster Agroconsult said.

• Obama asked Congress Thursday to raise the debt ceiling to $16.4 trillion.

• California has slipped behind Brazil to become the ninth-largest economy in the world.

• U.S. Retail sales increased a less-than-expected 0.1%, despite continued strength in autos.

• French CPI rose 0.4 % in December

• (Bloomberg) a proposed European Union embargo of Iranian oil imports was said likely to be delayed for six months
• 
  
• The dry bulk market has been in freefall, reminding ship owners just how fragile the market is.

Quick Overview

• La Nina, the weather event, that dried up crops in Argentina and Brazil and flooded plantations in Thailand and Malaysia may be weakening, said Telvent DTN Inc.

• U.S. regulators have halted shipments of imported orange juice from all countries, and plan to destroy or ban products if tests find even low levels from a prohibited fungicide. Initial test results are due this week.

• PG declared another quarterly dividend of $0.525 per share. P&G has been paying a dividend for 121 consecutive years since its incorporation in 1890 and has increased its dividend for 55 consecutive years at an annual compound average rate of approximately 9.5%.

• An Iranian nuclear scientist was killed in a Tehran bomb explosion, in at least the third assassination targeting the nation’s atomic program that the U.S. and Israel have vowed to halt.

• The Nevada November gambling revenue statewide rose 7.1% to $880.1 million. On the Las Vegas Strip, which accounts for more than half the total, the take was up 9% to $495.3 million. Tourist traffic rose 3.2% in November to 3.03 million visitors.

• The DoE said that crude oil stocks rose by 5 million barrels, gasoline stocks increased by 3.6 million barrels, and distillate stocks, which includes diesel, increased by 4 million barrels.

• Japan's current-account surplus shrank in November, falling 85.5% as exports dropped amid slowing global demand and energy imports rose.

• The Fed Beige Book said U.S. economic activity increased "at a modest to moderate pace."

• Texas, leadin U.S States, generated 294 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2010, followed by Pennsylvania, with 129 million metric tons emitted.

• The German economy shrugged off the impact of Eurozone debt crisis and grew by 3% in 2011

Quick Overview

• Orange juice futures went limit up for a second day after a warning by food watchdogs of finding Carbendazimin in imports from Brazil. This is compounded by supply fears provoked by cold weather in Florida.

• (FT)The central banks of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy between them hold 3,200 tonnes of gold

• U.S. Insurance companies spent millions of dollars trying to defeat the U.S. health care overhaul, saying it would raise costs and disrupt coverage. Instead, profit margins at the companies widened to levels not seen since before the recession, a Bloomberg Government study shows.

• The U.S. should declare a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing for natural gas in populated areas until the health effects are better understood, doctors said.

• France's industrial production rose by 1.1 percent in November.

• China's online gaming market raked in $6.79 billion in 2011, up 32.4% YoY.

• (Bloomberg) Rubber plantations from Indonesia to Ivory Coast will tap a global crop this year that will create the biggest glut since at least 2004, cutting costs for Bridgestone Corp., Michelin & Cie. and other tire makers.

• Chinas December copper imports rose 47.7% YoY.

• (Reuters) - Organized crime has tightened its grip on the Italian economy during the economic crisis, making the Mafia the country's biggest "bank" and squeezing the life out of thousands of small firms, according to a report on Tuesday.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. economy created 200,000 non-farm payroll jobs last month -- unemployment fell to 8.5%.

• S. Korea's producer prices rose 0.2% in Dec.

• Central bankers and regulators in the EU, U.S and Japan have agreed to face 'detailed' peer reviews over how well they are implementing new international bank capital rules.

• David Cameron suggested on Sunday that legislation to curb excessive executive pay, including giving shareholders new voting powers, could begin in the spring. The High Pay Commission conducted an inquiry that found that the pay of top executives at FTSE companies had risen by more than 4,000 per cent on average in the last 30 years.

• Brazil's inflation rose to 6.5% in 2011, up from 5.91% in 2010

• The unemployment rate in the Eurozone stayed at 10.3 % in November, unchanged from October.

• Canada's unemployment rate rose to 7.5% in December

• Swiss inflation rate fell to 0.2% in 2011.

• Insurance companies in China collected $226.4 billion of premiums last year, up 10.4% YoY

• David Cameron has said he would veto a European-wide financial transaction tax unless it was imposed globally, deepening a confrontation with France and Germany.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. ISM rose in December to 52.6% from November's 52.0%, a reading that nonetheless was below the 53.3% expected.

• The DOE said in the week ended Dec. 30:
• Oil supplies rose 2.2 million barrels
• Gasoline inventories rose 2.5 million,
• Distillates supplies rose 3.2 million barrels.

• YoY BMW U.S. sales rose 17.9%

• It is hot in Australia and they’re running low on soft-drinks (The decade to 2011 was the hottest on record)

• The number of Americans claiming weekly unemployment benefits fell 15,000 to 372,000 last week, the lowest level since the summer of 2008.

• Spanish banks will need to find an extra €50bn to cover potential losses from property loans, the Financial Times reported

Quick Overview

• According to Dow Trend Earnings (aka Fed model) the Dow should be trading at $45,769

• "Trust me" is not enough of a safeguard, says Amnesty International, as Obama signs the NDAA into law.

• Hot, dry weather in South America continues to raise concerns about potential yield losses.

• US Manufacturing improves to 53.9 in December vs 52.7 in November.

• The Chinese purchasing managers index (PMI), rose to 50.3 in December from 49 in November, indicating a slight expansion in business activity in China's vast factory sector.

• New polling data from Lawrence Hamilton, of the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire, suggests that the “anti-science” epithet really does apply to many U.S. Republicans—at least on environmental issues.

Happy Holidays
(Updates resume Jan. 3)

Happy Birthday, Bill [of Rights]: Obama Breaks Promise To Veto Bill Allowing Indefinite Detention of Americans I am not sure which is worse: the loss of core civil liberties or the almost mocking post hoc rationalization for abandoning principle. The Congress and the President have now completed a law that would have horrified the Framers. Indefinite detention of citizens is something that the Framers were intimately familiar with and expressly sought to bar in the Bill of Rights. While the Framers would have likely expected citizens in the streets defending their freedoms, this measure was greeted with a shrug and a yawn by most citizens and reporters. Instead, we are captivated by whether a $10,000 bet by Romney was real or pretend in the last debate.

Quick Overview

• Having vetoed his way into isolation at last week's European Union summit, Cameron is now looking for allies.
  
• Spain’s ten-year yields fall 25 basis points to 5.43%

• (LAT) American CEOs raked in fat paychecks last year, as head honchos netted a median 27% increase in compensation in fiscal year 2010. Top executives from the S&P 500 scored a median 36.5% bump in realized compensation.

• U.S. current account trade deficit fell to 110.3 billion U.S. dollars in Q3, 11.5 percent lower than the previous quarter.

• Merkel calmly told parliament that a solution would take years and German central bank head Jens Weidmann compared demands for ECB intervention to an alcoholic grabbing for the bottle.

• Amazon said that it has sold more than 1 million units of its Kindle e-reader and Fire tablet each week for the last three weeks.

• In the Ukraine, the government is allowed to sell or use cars that have been stolen in other countries. The law creates the perfect conditions for organized gangs who steal luxury cars to order in Western Europe. “Perhaps this helped” Ukraine's GD which grew 5.3% in the first 11 months of this year.

• The yield on Germany's 30-year debt hit an all-time low of 2.36%.

• Fitch unexpectedly raised Indonesia's sovereign debt status to investment grade.

• U.S. Industrial production declined 0.2% in November

• The number of U.S. people applying for jobless benefits fell last week to 366000, the fewest since May 2008.

• The US seems determined to punish Bradley Manning -- the military proceedings against him, which begin Friday, are likely to end in a guilty verdict.

• (Spiegel) The murders of African street vendors by a right-wing extremist in Florence have shocked Italy. Questions are now emerging about whether the gunman acted alone. But one thing seems certain, he was close to a right-wing radical group that has a pop culture appeal admired even by Germany's neo-Nazis.

• Japans Tankan survey, the large manufacturer index of sentiment fell to minus 4 in December from plus 2 in September, marking the first decline in two quarters and retreating more than consensus market forecasts.

• FedEx (FDX) profits rose to $497 million, or $1.57 per share, from $283 million, or $0.89 per share, over last year’s second quarter.

Quick Overview

• Steve Freed analyst with ADM is expecting a bullish Jan. corn report saying that yield should be cut 1.5 bushels an acre = tight carryout.
• Reuters: The La Nina weather phenomenon is expected to reduce rainfall in Argentina main crop belt until at least mid January.

• Inventories at U.S. businesses rose 0.8% in October
• U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% for November

• German investor confidence showed a surprise rise of 1.4 points.

• The International Coffee Organization raised by 1.2m bags to 128.6m bags its forecast for world coffee production in 2011-12.

• MF Global, Enron, Arthur Anderson, Refco, Lehman, Countrywide, Bear Stearns, Madoff, Health South, Subprime etc. etc. Regulators get paid for what exactly?

Quick Overview

• Say goodbye to Xe. The company formerly known as Blackwater — the world’s most infamous private security corporation — has also jettisoned that name and now wants to be known as “Academi.” Business however will continue unchanged……………..

• Obama: After nearly 9 years our war in Iraq ends this month.

• Fitch Ratings said on Monday that a comprehensive solution to the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone "is not on offer"

• Intel (INTC) cut its Q4 revenue forecast, citing the hard-disk drive shortage.

• U.S. Ethanol exports 2nd highest on record in October

• Reuters is reporting the German govt. is in talks with Commerzbank to prop them up.

• November s the seventh month investors withdrew money from stock funds.

• India's industrial production fell 5.1 % in October

Quick Overview

• Every European nation except for Britain (Cameron is trying to “protect bankers from regulation") agreed to consider forging closer economic ties in hopes of preventing another debt crisis.

• GE hikes quarterly dividend by 2c to 17c a share.

• U.S. consumer sentiment rose to a six month high 0f 67.7 vs 64.1 in November.

• Nevada’s Gambling revenue rose 8.1% in October. The Las Vegas Strip, which accounts for more than half the total, led the growth, with a gain of 13.3%.

• The USDA estimates 848 million bushels of corn on hand at the end of next summer -- up less than 1% from last month's forecast. This is a supply of less than 25 days. A 30 day supply is considered healthy.
• The USDA estimates the soybean surplus to be up 18% from last month. Ending stocks are expected to be 230 million bushel. That's about a 28 day supply.

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 1.6% in October to $43.5 billion

• Waste Management said it would increase its quarterly dividend by 4.4% to 35.5 cents
  
  
• MagnetU is a $24 device that broadcasts your social media profile to other “nodes” (people) around you, Technology Review Mims’s Bits reports. If anyone else with a MagnetU has a profile that matches yours sufficiently, the device will alert both of you via text and/or an app. It also links to Facebook, Linkedin, Twitter…..
• Capesize rates rose to 21-month highs on Chinese iron ore demand that is estimated to grow 20% by 2015.

Quick Overview

• U.S. wholesale inventories roe 1.6% in October.

• U.S. initial jobless claims in the week ending Dec. 3 fell 23,000 to 381,000.

• ECB cut lending rate to 1% from 1.25%.

• Jon Corzine, the former chief of bankrupt MF Global - the eighth largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history -- has no idea where the missing money is.

• JPMorgan’s CEO doesn’t know what tax rate he pays

• The Bank of England held interest rates at 0.5% and decided against more easing for the economy but more quantitative easing is expected in 2012.

• Indonesia’s held interest rates at 6%

• Six members of the Walton family, heirs to the (WMT) Walmart fortune, possess wealth equal to that of the entire bottom 30 % of Americans. This according to a new analysis by Sylvia Allegretto, a labor economist at the University of California at Berkeley.
  

  
  
• YoY Chinese consumer inflation fell  to 4.2%  in November from 5.5% in October and well below the three year peak it reached in July.

Quick Overview

• The DoE increased crude oil stocks by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending December 2, gasoline stocks rose by 5.1 million barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 2.5 million barrels.

• Australia's unemployment rate rose 0.1 % to 5.3% in November.

• Japan machinery orders dropped 6.9% in October.

• U.S. consumers increased their debt by 7.6 billion or at a 3.7% annual rate in October

• Dagong downgraded the credit rating of France from AA- to A+ with a negative outlook

• Dagong downgraded Italy’s debt by one level to BBB from the previous A- with "negative" outlook.

• South Korea's left rates unchanged at 3.25%.

• New Zealand left rates unchanged at 2.5 percent.

• A Chinese government think tank predicted China's economy to grow 9.2 percent this year before gliding to 8.9 t in 2012.

Occupied Washington Americans are not opposed to the rich getting richer—as John Steinbeck is said to have noted, "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires." But this prospect only satisfies so long as people believe that with luck and hard work, their ship, or at least their kids' ship, may some day come in. In a system overrun by piracy—a system in which the pirates also, sorry to stretch the metaphor, run the Navy—the dream becomes hard to sustain.

Quick Overview

• Martell Crop Projections, warned that "intense heat and moisture stress has developed in a swathe of South America of the past month", citing Bolivia and northern Paraguay, but most notably Brazil's top soybean-producing state of Mato Grosso.

• WTF is the definition of “SEGREGATED” Accounts??........The CFTC is aiming to find the missing account money from MF Global "very shortly,"……………….Bill Clinton was allegedly collecting $50,000 per month from Corzine’s MF Global via his Teneo advisory firm in the months before the brokerage careened towards its Halloween filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, reports Human Events…….. Corzine earned some $14 million in total compensation in 2010.

• The selectively attentive Standard & Poor's has warned that it could downgrade the AAA rating of the Eurozone debt rescue fund, a day after nearly all governments of the monetary union were given a similar notice.

• The survival of Commerzbank, Germany's second-largest bank is at stake, and Berlin is considering a full nationalization of the bank if necessary.
  
  
• The Nokia Lumina 800 appears to have surpassed iPhone 4 sales with KPN the Netherlands largest operator. (NOK, MSFT, QCOM) v (AAPL, GOOG etc.)

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders fell by 0.4% in October after falling a downwardly revised 0.1% in September

• Cargill is firing 2,000 people due to “continued weak global economy”.

• The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index slowed from 52.9% in October to a reading of 52.0% in November, its lowest level since Jan. 2010.

• S&P may downgrade the triple-A ratings of six European nations including Germany, according to the Financial Times.
  (Telegraph) If only S&P had been such attentive party poopers at the height of the credit bubble  we wouldn't be in the mess we are  in now.

• (Reuters) - The U.S. Postal Service moved forward with plans to end next-day delivery of letters. Also, in a notice filed with its regulator, it sought approval to close more than half of its 461 processing facilities that have been critical for next-day delivery service. The agency expects to eliminate about 28,000 jobs as part of the processing facilities plan.

• Bloomberg: Carmakers will use a record $7 billion of platinum in catalytic converters next year, diminishing a glut just as mine production declines for the first time since 2008

Quick Overview

• The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in November, the lowest level in more than two and a half years.

• (FT) Globally, wireless capacity must double about every 30 month.

• Goldman Sachs predicted on Friday a recession would hit the Spanish economy in 2012 and last until 2013.

• YoY World manufacturing production increased by 5.5 % in Q3 of 2011, said a report released Thursday by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO).

• Jobless rate in France rose by 2% to 9.3 percent in Q3.

• MoM the industrial producer prices index rose by 0.1 % in the Eurozone in October.

• The Chinese leadership's law-and-order chief is warning that China is ill-prepared for social unrest generated by changes in the economy, in the latest sign that the government is worried about the consequences of flagging growth.

Raise Taxes on Rich to Reward True Job Creators: Nick Hanauer
I’m a very rich person. As an entrepreneur and venture capitalist, I’ve started or helped get off the ground dozens of companies in industries including manufacturing, retail, medical services, the Internet and software. I founded the Internet media company aQuantive Inc., which was acquired by Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) in 2007 for $6.4 billion. I was also the first non-family investor in Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

Even so, I’ve never been a “job creator.” I can start a business based on a great idea, and initially hire dozens or hundreds of people. But if no one can afford to buy what I have to sell, my business will soon fail and all those jobs will evaporate.

That’s why I can say with confidence that rich people don’t create jobs, nor do businesses, large or small. What does lead to more employment is the feedback loop between customers and businesses. And only consumers can set in motion a virtuous cycle that allows companies to survive and thrive and business owners to hire. An ordinary middle-class consumer is far more of a job creator than I ever have been or ever will be.

Quick Overview

• US jobless claims back above 400,000 again.
• U.S. construction spending rose 0.8% in October
• The ISM said its manufacturing index in November rose to 52.7% from 50.8% in October -- the 28th month of expansion
• General Motors reports a 6.9% jump in November U.S. sales, led by bigger trucks and smaller gas sippers.

• China reported its manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.0 on a 100 point scale, below the previous month’s 50.4 reading -- therefore China’s central bank said on Wednesday that it will lower the reserve requirement ratio of banks by 0.5 % points – first lowering in 3 years.

• Central bankers in the United States, Eurozone, Japan, Switzerland and Canada have launched co-ordinated global action to ease the growing credit crisis among Eurozone banks by lowering the price on existing dollar swaps.
• There is no quick fix to Europe's debt woes that threaten to escalate into a more widespread credit crunch, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura warned on Wednesday
• The unemployment rate in the Eurozone hit a record high of 10.3% in October

• Fed's Beige Book: Economy moving forward at snail’s pace.
• The November reading of the Chicago PMI rose to 62.6% from 58.4% in October, which is a seven-month high.
• YoY Canada's GDP grew 3.5% in the third quarter

• U.S. Pending home sales rose 10.4% in Octoer."We hope this indicates more buyers are taking advantage of the excellent affordability conditions," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, in a statement.

• Vienna has the best living standard in the world - and Baghdad the worst, according to an annual survey.

• (FT) US faces pension bill for AMR restructure: State body warns taxpayers could pay higher premiums.

• (Economist) The FTC’s investigation finds that Facebook has been making information public that it had pledged to keep private.

• Walt Disney (DIS) raised its annual dividend by 50% to 60 cents a share.

• Goldman: The combination of a record cotton crop and falling consumption will expand global stockpiles by the most since 2005, driving further declines in the price.

• The DoE said: Crude oil stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week ending November 25. Gasoline stocks rose by 0.2 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 5.5 million barrels. Ethanol stocks fell by 0.5 million to 17.0 million barrels

MUST READ

The Debunking Handbook

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer confidence rose 15 points to 56 in November – the largest gain since 2003.

• Standard & Poor's lower ratings on 37 banks and their subsidiaries. Among U.S. banks, Wells Fargo & Co. had its rating lowered to A+ from AA, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. both had their A+ ratings cut to A, and Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. both had their A ratings cut to A-.
  
  
  
  
  

• According to S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. home prices fell 0.6% in September. YoY the home price slide was 3.6%.

• No recovery in sight for U.S. housing, says Yale's economist Shiller.

• Hungary’s raised its base rate by half of a percentage point to 6.5%.

• All measures of the money supply in the Eurozone contracted in October with drastic falls across parts of southern Europe, raising the risk of severe recession over coming months.

• American Airlines and its parent company are filing for bankruptcy protection.

• Weak growth, continuing Eurozone woes and an absence of safe havens will ensure a tough year for investors in 2012, according to a new report from Merrill Lynch

• YoY Sweden's GDP rose by 4.6% in Q3.

• Japan's unemployment rate stood at a 4.5% in October
• According to the OECD's twice-yearly Economic Outlook report, despite planned tax hikes and spending cuts, Japan will see government debt rise to 230 % of GDP in 2013, meaning the nation's public finances, already the worst in the industrialized world, are set to worsen further.

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are planning more drastic means - including a quick new Stability Pact - to fight the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, Welt am Sonntag reported on Sunday.

• Italian bond yields rose above 8%.

• Hungary’s credit rating is cut to junk status.

• China's domestic rating agency downgraded Portugal's rating from BBB+ to BB+ with a negative outlook.

• A poorly received German 10-year-bond auction forced the Bundesbank to pick up the slack to bring the sale to a planned €6 billion.

• (FT) A number of large institutional investors have threatened to stop buying bonds issued by Santander after Spain’s biggest bank offered to exchange some of its existing debt into new instruments at what they consider punitive terms.

• (MW) U.S. “defense” spending (in 2011 dollars): Vietnam War $526 billion, Pearl Harbor $352 billion...this year $695 billion

• Former US president George Bush and his former counterpart Tony Blair were found guilty of war crimes by The Kuala Lumpur War Crimes Tribunal which held a four day hearing in Malaysia. The five panel tribunal unanimously decided that Bush and Blair committed genocide and crimes against peace and humanity when they invaded Iraq in 2003 in blatant violation of international law.

• HSBC’s preliminary China manufacturing survey dropped to a 32-month low in November -- adding to growth worries in Europe and the U.S.

• Australia proposed a marine reserve in the Coral Sea that covers a total area of around 990,000 square kilometers off the north-east coast of Australia.

• India is opening up its retail market to foreign direct investment

• (FT) The US is refusing to sign off on a flagship global climate fund, as already fraught negotiations intensify ahead of next week’s UN climate summit and carbon prices plummet to an all-time low.

• Germanys Ifo institute said its business confidence index rose to 106.6 points this month from 106.4 points in October.

• Food inflation in India fell to 9.01% for the week ended Nov. 12, compared with 10.63 % the previous week.

 

It is not inevitable that the EU – or democracy – will survive this mess  Pessimism always has the best tunes, and I remain instinctively an optimist. I still cheer when I see democracy's shrivelled hordes assert themselves in the street. My brain may be with technocracy, but my heart is with the majority, hoping that the two can resume consummation. But we should remember Schumpeter's warning, of capitalism's tendency to self-destruction and socialism's to fascism. Both, he said, were history's "jokes of questionable taste".

Quick Overview

• Poll: Fox News Viewers Are Less Informed Than Those Watching No News.

• Why has no one at MF Global nor Corzine been charged by powers that be with any crime? More than $1.2 billion of customers' funds have so far gone missing from “supposedly” segregated accounts.
• And this about the CME’s position transfer: They didn't seem to understand what short/long option value means and how you net them out. We couldn't believe it," said one senior executive with a major futures commission merchant. "Criticism is starting to surface of the CME leaders. It's really hurting the credibility of the exchange."
• Reuters: JP Morgan to buy $MF Global stake in LME (Where is Glass Steagall?)
  
  

• U.S. Q3  GDP growth cut to 2.0% from 2.5%

• In October, U.S.  employers took 1,353 mass layoff actions involving 118,689 workers. Mass layoff events decreased by 142 from September, and associated initial claims decreased by 34,540

• The supercommittee appears ready to throw in the towel on getting debt-deal done.

• Spain’s private Banco de Valencia, bank #3, is taken over by the state because of RE problems.
• Spain’s unemployment rate is 22.6% and 46% for youth.

• The National Association of Realtors on Monday said sales rose 1.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million from 4.9 million in September.

• (NZH) Steven J. Baum P.C., a foreclosure law firm that was criticized for a Halloween party that mocked the homeless and people in danger of losing their homes says it will lay off at least one-third of its employees.

• (Bloomberg) Dismissed as a “nobody” by Japan's nuclear industry, seismologist Katsuhiko Ishibashi spent two decades watching his predictions of disaster come true: First in the 1995 Kobe earthquake and then at Fukushima. He says the government still doesn’t get it.

• Egypt’s death toll reaches 35 on third day of violent protest crackdown.

• Monbiot: The Corporate Welfare State. Despite the crisis, it’s still socialism for the 1%, capitalism for the rest.

Self-serving myths of Europe’s neo-Calvinists

The hallmark of fiscal integration is mutualisation – a greater pooling of budgetary resources, joint debt issuance, a common backstop to the banking system, and so on. Tighter rules are not so much a path to mutualisation, as an attempt to prevent it from happening.

This course of action is more likely to precipitate the euro’s disintegration than its survival.

You may want to examine the Euro Dollar and Libor Fed Funds Spread charts.

Quick Overview

• U.S. leading indicators rose 0.9%, the most since February

• (SBMRY) SabMiller the brewer reported that fiscal first-half net income rose 23% on 12% higher revenue.

• Moody's downgraded the ratings on debt and deposit of 10 German public-sector banks

• Ed Hansberry: Microsoft's license agreements cover 53% of Android's share. Getting somewhere between $5 and $15 for each handset sold, Microsoft is making a ton of money off of Google's platform.

• U.S. crude oil stocks decreased by 1.1 million barrels in the week ending November 11, gasoline stocks declined by 1.0 million and distillate stocks decreased by 2.1 million barrels. Ethanol production rose by 5 million to 916 million barrels. Stocks rose 0.7 million to 17.1 million barrels

• U.S. consumer price index fell by 0.1% in October.

• (BBC) Radioactive cesium found in Japans rice.

• U.S. new housing starts fell 0.3% in October -- YoY Housing starts are up 16.5%

• Women with attractive eyes may be forced to cover them up under Saudi Arabia's latest tyrannical measures.

• YoY Malaysia's GDP rose 5.8% in Q3

• S&P upgrades Brazil's sovereign credit rating from BBB- to triple B

• YoY New Zealand's GDP rose by 4.2 %.

• The new Greek coalition government submitted the 2012 draft budget, forecasting an ambitious budget deficit cut to 5.4 % of GDP next year from this year's 9.0 %

• Central Bank gold buying of 148.4 tonnes is a 40 year high.