Quick Overview

• (Reuters) Fitch says if U.S. debt ceiling not raised by August 2 then will put U.S. on rating watch negative.

• (MarketWatch) -- SABMiller PLC said Tuesday that its proposal to buy Foster's Group Ltd. at 4.90 Australian dollars a share ($5.19) is attractive to Foster's Group shareholders. SABMiller said the price represents a significant premium of 14.5% to the price of Foster's of A$4.28 as of 2 June.

• (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Wal-Mart rose Monday following its court victory in a sex-discrimination case. Wal-Mart added about 1% after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a massive sex-discrimination class-action lawsuit against the retailer cannot move forward in its current form.

• (FT)Three-quarters of the new inflow from China was invested abroad in non-US dollar assets, bank report reveals.

• Tepco rating slashed to Junk by Moody’s

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts rose 3.5% in May. However, starts still remained 5.6% below levels seen in March and well below levels needed to turn the industry around.

• Bank chiefs’ average pay in the US and Europe leapt 36 % last year to $9.7m, according to data compiled for the Financial Times, despite variable performance across the sector.

• Moody’s place the government debt of Italy on alert for a possible downgrade.

• Greece has been downgraded three notches to triple C by Standard & Poor’s, just two notches above default.

• Greenspan (the ex chief default facilitator) said that a Greek default was likely.

• A deal isn't yet in sight for the next Greek rescue package, but Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel sought to express unity during a Friday meeting at the Chancellery in Berlin. Both, however, now agree that bank participation should be voluntary.

• The Senate killed the ethanol tax credit in a vote of 73 to 27. These same clowns voted less than one month ago to preserve billions of dollars in taxpayer handouts to the oil industry. This Senate action won’t result in a bill, since the House has to initiate tax legislation.
  (Current subsidies for the oil industry total up to $280 billion annually, representing up to $2 per gallon of gasoline)

• There is some speculation that commercials have bought July corn futures to take delivery.

• Forgers are buying empty Lafite and Latour bottles on eBay for several hundred Euros.

• During the first four months of 2011, the export value of China's agricultural products hit 18.68 billion US dollars, an increase of 34.4% YoY.
• Torrential rains have left huge areas of Hubei and Zhejiang provinces under water, with more than 1 million acres of farmland inundated, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

• The U.S. has hit the $14.29 trillion $ legal ceiling on borrowings and the U.S. Treasury is taking extraordinary measures to buy some time prior to Aug. 2 for Democrats and Republicans to reach a deal and ward off the default risk.

• The IMF warned that Washington and debt-ridden European countries are "playing with fire" unless they take drastic steps to reduce their budget deficits as it cut US growth forecasts.

• BYD Co. Ltd., the Chinese car maker backed by Buffett, said it had received formal approval from China's top securities regulator for an A-share listing on the Shenzhen market.

• California lost 29,200 jobs in May. Despite the job losses, the state's unemployment rate still dropped to 11.7%, from 11.8% the month before.

• (Bloomberg) -- The United Nations nuclear agency’s decision to hold talks about the Fukushima disaster behind closed doors this week ignores the “blindingly obvious” need for greater transparency..

Updates resume June 18

Quick Overview

• Japan's government is considering evacuating more towns affected by the Fukushima Daiichi disaster.

• The USDA cut U.S. new-crop corn ending stocks to 695 million bushels, down 205 million bushels from the previous month estimate = a 19-day supply.
• The USDA estimates global corn stocks at a 42.8 day supply -- the lowest since 1973-74.

• Marksmen could be paid to slaughter Australia's vast population of methane-belching camels that roam the Outback as part of an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

• Radioactive cesium exceeding the legal limit was detected in tea made in a factory in Shizuoka City, more than 300 kilometers away from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Ancient wheat plague threatens world crops anew Whipping winds can transport spores as many as 100 miles (160 kilometers) per day, raising concerns among scientists about where the epidemic could turn up next.

Nuclear fuel has melted through base of Fukushima plant The findings of the report, which has been given to the International Atomic Energy Agency, were revealed by the Yomiuri newspaper, which described a "melt-through" as being "far worse than a core meltdown" and "the worst possibility in a nuclear accident."

• NJ Gov. Chris Christie wants a new nuclear plant in the state to replace one that will shut down.

• In the wake of Fukushima Germany's bets big on renewable energy and shuts  all its nuclear power plants by 2022.

Quick Overview

• OPEC couldn't agree on an increase in production quotas.

• (FT) BP statistical review of world energy shows China accounted for 20.3%t of consumption, surpassing the US on 19%.

• (MW)The Federal Reserve's latest survey of economic conditions throughout the country found slower growth in many regions. Fed banks in Philadelphia, Atlanta, New York and Chicago all reported a downshift in activity. Only the Dallas Fed reported accelerated growth.

• (FT) Dry weather across northern Europe has raised concerns among commodity traders of a crop failure similar to last year's devastating losses in Russia.

• (Bloomberg) -- Wet weather that delayed corn planting in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter, may send global inventories to their lowest in 37 years.

• With few options at hand and his poll numbers sagging, President Barack Obama expressed concern yesterday about the sudden slowdown in the economy but said he was not worried about a second recession and America should "not panic". He’s contemplating a payroll tax break for employers.

10 physical gestures that have been patented
Apple is trying to claim ownership of everything from an infinity gesture on your phone, to some sort of weird thing where you stick three fingers on the screen and wiggle the middle one in a circle.

Next update June 8

UN proposes commodity deal tax to curb speculation
The United Nations has proposed a tax on commodity transactions, and government intervention in markets, to curb the speculation that the organisation believes is artificially lifting prices, and volatility, of raw materials.

Wheat Rallying 20% as Parched Fields Wilt From China to Kansas

Parts of China, the biggest grower, had the least rain in a century, some European regions are the driest in 50 years and almost half the winter-wheat crop in the U.S., the largest exporter, is rated poor or worse.

Quick Overview

• US unemployment rose from 9% to 9.1%, analysts had expected a fall to 8.9%.

• Chinese ratings agency Dagong Global Credit Rating put France's AA- credit rating on negative watch.

• S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index for Q1, showing that the U.S. home prices declined 4.2% in the period to a new low since mid-2002.

• India Plans $12 Billion Highway Expansion.

• Radiation readings inside the Fukushima No. 1 reactor building rose to the highest level yet, almost three months after the disaster started.

Climate change curbs crops Warming has already lowered yields of wheat and corn.
Farmers have produced less food during the past three decades than they would have done were climate change not happening..

Quick Overview

• The DOE reported an increase of 2.9 million barrels of oil. Analysts expected a decrease around 1.9 million barrels.
• The EIA reported an increase of 2.6 million barrels for gasoline inventories. Analysts had expected gasoline inventories to rise 1.2 million.
• The DOE reported a decrease of 1 million for stockpiles of distillates.

• U.S. Factory orders fell 1.2% in April to $440.4 billion after a upwardly revised 3.8% gain in March.

• The number of US people who filed applications for unemployment compensation fell slightly last week to 422,000 from 428,000

• As the E. coli outbreak continues to ravage Germany and other parts of Europe, the World Health Organization said Thursday that the aggressive intestinal bacterium is a new strain never seen before. Meanwhile fears of the illness prompted Russia to ban imports of vegetables from the EU.

• The Canadian Wheat Board released information regarding a possible 4 to 5 million acres of wheat not being planted

• China will encourage coal imports and urge miners to boost output to increase supplies to power plants.
• China's growth is slowing but still looks set to outstrip expectations in 2011, with rapid urbanization, manufacturing and demand for housing stoking its economy, Rio Tinto said.
• China announced that it will raise electricity prices for nonresidential consumers about 3% to offset lofty coal prices.
• Xinhua said that rainfall along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze was down 40 to 60 percent from the average, with the totals being lower than at any time since 1951. 

• Brazil's environment agency gave final approval this week for the construction of the Belo Monte Dam, an immense hydroelectric station in the Amazon.

Quick Overview

• The ISM index of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 53.5% last month from 60.4 in April.

• Macau says gambling revenue surges 42% in May -- MPEL new high on the move

• The Linn Group on Wednesday lowered its forecast of U.S. 2011 corn plantings to 87.233 million acres, from its May 18 estimate of 89.538 million. (NOT ENOUGH!!)

• US Construction spending improved in April, rising 0.4%.

• The unemployment rate in the euro zone remained high at 9.9 percent in April

• India's January-March GDP rose 7.8% YoY

• Moody's warns of possible downgrade to Japan's debt rating.

• Mark Mobius: Total value of global derivatives exceeds total global GDP by a factor of 10

• Japan’s unemployment rate at 4.7% in April.

• Florida orange trees aged over 14 years has doubled to more than 60% so far this century.

• Oil World estimates the German rapeseed crop down 19%.

• The French government weather agency Meteo France said this spring has been both the warmest and the driest on record, with a higher average temperature and less rain than in 1976, which had the most severe drought since the agency began compiling the data.

• China's manufacturing-activity fell to 52.0 vs. forecast of 52.2.

• The Australian GDP fell  1.2% in the March quarter.

• YoY South Koreas CPI rose 4.1% May
   

No update today

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) Prince Alwaleed bin Talal said an oil price of $70 to $80 a barrel is in the best interests of Saudi Arabia because it diminishes the urgency in the U.S. and Europe to develop alternative energy sources.

• Russia plans to let the grain-export ban expire July 1. (as expected)

• (Bloomberg) Steel demand in China, the world’s biggest consumer, may rise by as much as a quarter by 2015 compared with demand last year, according to a projection from the China Iron & Steel Association, which represents producers.

• Chinese animal feed manufacturers consumed 74.7 million metric tons of corn last year, an increase of 20% from 2009.

Quick Overview

• Morgan Stanley lifted its Brent oil forecast to $120 a barrel this year.

• The market is watching the Icelandic volcano eruption, with a lot of analysts of the view that the 2010 Russian crop failures were due to the huge volcanic eruption in Iceland during March/April last year.

• The US Department of Commerce reported that Q1 GDP rose by 1.8%, below expectations of 2.2%.

• Minneapolis wheat rose to new 35-month highs. (Disclosure: The Advisor is long)

• Barclays Capital said  Shandong, China's second-ranked wheat-producing province, has received just 12mm of rain since September 2010, indicating that around 40% of the province's wheat crop has been lost".

• The USDA reports the sale of 4.6 million bushels of old-crop corn to China. (Disclosure: The Advisor is long)

• South Korea's consumer sentiment index rose to 104 in May, up from 100 the previous month, the Bank of Korea said

• QoQ U.S. house price fell 2.5 % in Q1

• India's  wholesale price index for food articles rose 8.55% YoY

• Malaysian Bulker Carrier (MBC) is anticipating the dry bulk market to recover over the medium-term with an increase in coal imports by Japan.

Next update Thursday

Quick Overview

• S&P 500 profits may reach $104.73 in the next 12 months. Biggs “stocks reasonably priced”

• Ohio may have only 10% corn planted said Ohio State University corn agronomist.

• The USDA on Friday said cattle placed into feedlots in April rose 10% YoY while analysts were looking for a 4.3% increase.
  
  
• (WSJ) 46.5% of Americans say they couldn’t come up with $2,000 in 30 days or would have to rely on extreme measures

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor’s threat that it may cut Italy’s credit rating risks fanning contagion among debt- laden European countries as Greece fends off speculation that it’s headed to a restructuring.

• China’s April sugar imports rose to 160,000 tons, up nearly 10 x YoY

• Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s long-term rating to B-plus from BB-plus and placed all ratings on Rating Watch Negative

• The Spanish Socialist (PSOE) party of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero suffered a crushing defeat in the local and regional elections held in Spain this Sunday

• Statistics Canada said Friday that Canada's annual inflation rate kept at 3.3 % in April, matching  March.

Next update Sunday

Quick Overview

• France’s soft-wheat harvest, the largest in the European Union, will decline 12% as drought slashes yields, Agritel said.

• U.S. Crude supplies fell 15,000 barrels to 370.3 million last week.
• Refineries operated at 83.2 percent of capacity
• Gasoline inventories rose 119,000 to 205.9 million
• Distillate inventories fell 1.16 million barrels to 143.1 million, the lowest level since April 2009.

• U.S. Health-care expenses will rise 8.5% in 2012, according to a study by Pricewaterhouse

Quick Overview

• U.S. Housing starts have dropped 10.6% to an annual rate of 523,000 in April

• Soros said his hedge fund dumped nearly all of its gold holdings.

• Map of the world, resized by each country's relative water resources.

• Ukraine may cancel quotas on the exports of wheat in 2010/2011 marketing year, stated Nikolay Azarov, Prime Minister of Ukraine.

• Iron ore shipments from Australia's Port Hedland, one of the world's largest export terminals, fell to 15.88 million tonnes in April from 17.78 million tonnes in March

• Oil producers need to boost capacity by 45 million barrels a day, or almost half current output, over the next 20 years to meet demand and offset field declines, said the president of Society of Petroleum Engineers.

• The current weather forecasts suggest that 20 million acres of corn or more will have to be seeded in June.
  
  
• Watermelons are exploding in China after farmers overdid it with growth chemicals
  

  
  
• New highs for PG and DPS
• Jim Rogers Commodities: We Have Virtually No New Supply Of Anything

Quick Overview

• YoY India’s wholesale-price index rose 8.66% in April

• Japanese core machinery order rose 2.9% in March.

• Voters in the Swiss region of Zurich, which has become known as a hub for "death tourism", have voted against restrictions being placed on assisted suicides.

• [AP] - Toxic bean sprouts, filthy cooking oil, drug-tainted pork: The relentless headlines in Chinese media have churned up queasy feelings for months about the dangers lurking in the nation's dinner bowls.

• (Bloomberg) -- Sales of gold coins are on track for the best month in a year amid the worst commodities rout since 2008, a sign that bullion’s longest bull market in nine decades has further to run, if history is a guide.

• The  New York FED's general economic index fell to 11.9 from a one-year high of 21.7 in April

• (Bloomberg) -- Farmers in France, the European Union’s largest producer of wheat, barley and sugar beets, faced more restrictions on water use amid a worsening drought, with no sign of relief in the next few weeks.

Fears grow that US unready for larger Panama canal
From 2014 some of the largest ships in the world will again fit through the 80 kilometer (50-mile) Panama Canal. Vessels carrying around 14,000 containers rather than today's 5,000 will be able to cross the isthmus

Quick Overview

• Bank of Korea unexpectedly keept rates unchanged

• The median home-sale price in the Las Vegas area in 2006 was $313,500; in 2010 it fell to $138,100.

• Germany’s GDP grew 1.5% in Q1, compared with the previous quarter, when the growth stood at 0.4 % in rarely harsh winter weather.

• For the first time since the last quarter of 2009, the Greek GDP grew in the first quarter of 2011 by 0.8%.

• Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.4% in April, pushing inflation to its highest level in two and a half years.

• French GDP grew 1% in Q1, the strongest expansion since the second quarter of 2006.

• Eurozone economy would grow by 1.6 % this year, with downside risks to growth prevailing amid increased uncertainties, the European Commission said on Friday.

• The Spanish economy grew by 0.3% in Q1

• YoY Hong Kong's GDP expanded 7.2%

Hindering harvests Using such data researchers have now compiled an estimate of global changes in crop yields which can be put down to recent increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall (the world as a whole is getting wetter, but the rain has stayed away from some agricultural plains). The bad news is that they find that climate change has lowered the amount of maize (or corn, if you prefer) and wheat produced in a given area. The good news is that the effect is so far reasonably small.

Quick Overview

• S & P has again cut Greece’s credit rating, downgrading it by two notches to B.

• Apple’s products are great and its earnings are soaring, so it’s not unreasonable to think the company is worth $2 trillion, writes James Altucher -- Really?

• U.S. households debt rose 0.3% last Q.

• Brazil rapeseed production to rise to 70k tonnes, up 65% YoY.

• PIMCO’s Gross: Stock’s are more attractive than Treasuries.

• Forecaster WeatherEdge Ltd. warned that France and Germany may have lost 15-20% of their wheat crops due to weeks of persistent dryness across the north of the countries.

• Arlan Suderman: Abandonment is the key for U.S. winter wheat; Prev yrs w similar crop ratings saw 25 to 30% abandonment

Quick Oveviewr

• (Arlan Suderman) Historically, December corn has a strong tendency to take out the spring high when new-crop stocks are projected below a 50-day supply. I expect USDA to peg new-crop stocks closer to a 20-day supply on Wednesday.

• Canada's unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 7.6 percent in April.

• YoY France's budget deficit rose by 16.3% to 33.6 billion Euros (48.83 billion U.S. dollars).

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.0% in April, and nonfarm payroll employment added 244,000 positions.

• China became the main export destination of Argentine soya products in 2010 -- buying 83%.

• Unilever (China) (UN) faces a fine of 2 million yuan (about 303,000 U.S. dollars) over statements of planned price hikes that enhanced the public's inflationary expectation and triggered panic buying. The fine, handed down by the Shanghai municipal pricing authority, came amid China's efforts to nail down runaway inflation that has spiked prices across the country.

• Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said Friday that its first-quarter profit tumbled 58 percent from a year ago due to insurance losses from major disasters in Japan, New Zealand and Australia.

• (Bloomberg) -- European Union officials may require Greece to provide collateral for aid as policy makers struggle to prevent the euro area’s first sovereign debt restructuring

Quick Overview

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Friday lifted its inflation forecasts for the next two years, with a statement saying that further tightening of monetary policy is likely.

• ECB holds rates at 1.25%.

• The number of U.S. people initially applying for unemployment aid last week rose to its highest level in eight months.

• The water level of the drought-stricken Yangtze River has been sharply reduced since February of this year, with its middle reaches decreasing to levels not seen in fifty years. In addition, water levels near the river's Three Gorges Dam are at five-year lows.

• (Bloomberg) Drought conditions may persist in wheat-growing areas from China, the world’s largest grower and consumer, to the U.S. and Western Europe, hurting crops and lifting prices, British Weather Services said.

• The GOP said plan to replace Medicare with vouchers will have to wait.

Quick Overview

• The central bank of Mexico bought nearly 100 tonnes of gold in February and March.

• The DOE said:
• Crude oil inventory rose by 3.42 million barrels
• Gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.05 million barrels

• Intel  redesigned the chip -- now in 3D!

• Spain's unemployment rate fell by 1.48% in April

• Retail trade volume in the Eurozone dropped 1.0% MoMThe

• ISM service index dropped to 52.8% for April, down from 57.3% in March

Quick Overview

• Brazil's industrial production rose 2.3 in Q1

• Industrial producer prices in the Eurozone rose by 0.7 % MoM

• Funds led by well-known investors such as George Soros and John Burbank have been selling off their gold and silver holdings recently, helping fuel the metals' price falls, The Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday.

• (MW) Legislation proposed in California that would mandate a means for Web users to easily prevent websites from gathering their personal information is moving forward, despite intense opposition from some of the state’s largest Internet firms — including Facebook and Google.

No update today

Quick Overview

• Two weeks until the U.S.debt ceiling is hit, Treasury Sec. Geithner says

• U.S. Corn planting progress as of Sunday: 13% v 40% average.

• Japan's domestic vehicle sales collapsed by more than 50pc last month as the impact of March's earthquake and tsunami crippled the supply chain

• YoY South Korea's CPI rose 4.2% in April

• (FT) Britons with billions of pounds hidden in Switzerland will pay tax at 50 per cent under a groundbreaking deal that will legitimise their undeclared assets, according to a source familiar with negotiations between the Swiss and British governments.

I've never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure - Mark Twain

Quick Overview

• South Korea’s exports expanded 26.6% YoY, compared with a revised 28.9% gain in March.

• Chinese manufacturing index fell to 52.9 in April from 53.4 in March.

• Buffett says not raising debt ceiling would be ‘Most Asinine’.

• Obama says oil companies are profiting from rising pump prices and he wants Congress to end $4 billion in annual tax breaks.

• Russia's Central Bank will raise its key interest rate by 0.25% from 8 to 8.25%.

• The unemployment rate in the euro zone was 9.9 in March, unchanged from February.

• Annual inflation in the euro zone rose to 2.8 in April.

• The world is facing an increasingly severe food crisis as rapid population growth and climate change are taking their toll on agricultural production around the world, the Mexico-based International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center said.

The First Guess: A Modest Proposal About Arizona

Next update Sunday

No update today

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- China’s banking regulator set capital targets for the nation’s five biggest lenders above the minimum 11.5 percent ratio amid concern that credit risks may rise, three people with knowledge of the matter said.

• U.S. new-home sales rebound 11.1% in March

• China aims to meet more than 85% of its sugar demand though domestic production and keep yearly imports at about 2 million tons, agricultural ministry's Wang said. In the last calendar year, China imported 1.77 million tons of sugar, up 66% YoY.

• There is no sign yet of rising energy and commodity prices spreading to second-round inflation in the euro zone, but the European Central Bank mustn't be complacent, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said.

• The US Congress should consider cutting multibillion-dollar subsidies to oil companies amid rising concern over skyrocketing gas prices, John Boehner said.

Quick Overview

• China must be vigilant against possible price fluctuations caused by rising costs that the U.S. faces to issuing debt, citing People's Bank of China Research Bureau Director Zhang Jianhua.

• (Reuters) - A U.S. federal judge erred in dismissing all charges against five Blackwater Worldwide security guards accused of killing 14 Iraqi civilians in 2007, an appeals court ruled on Friday.

• The U.S. is the world's largest wheat exporter and its HRW grade in Texas has received barely 25% of the normal rainfall so far this year, while in Oklahoma it is barely 30%. HRW wheat is used for bread-making worldwide

Lessons from the Credit-Anstalt Collapse
"Because we remember the Credit-Anstalt, we will not make that mistake," DeLong says. "We will make different ones."

Quick Overview

• MoM German PPI rose a less than expected 0.4% in March and rose 6.2% YoY.

• Sweden's central bank Wednesday raised its interest rate to 1.75% from 1.50%. This is the sixth consecutive increase.

• The International Grains Council estimates grain stocks at a four-year low of 334m tonnes or 18.4% of consumption, down from 23% two seasons ago. Wheat has been paying attention to dry conditions in the US, the EU, Russia and China, and wet weather in northern America and Canada. India is the only top-five wheat producer with no weather problems. The council lowered world corn inventories by 8m tonnes, and expressed concerns about declining supplies of high-protein milling wheat.

• (Bloomberg) -- Sales of U.S. previously owned homes rose in March as a mounting supply of properties in or near foreclosure lured investors. Purchases increased 3.7 percent to a 5.1 million annual rate, exceeding the 5 million median forecast of economists.

• Half of federal agencies will be in the cloud within 12 months, according to an InformationWeek Government and InformationWeek Analytics survey.
  The Obama administration’s “cloud first” policy requires agencies to use cloud services where possible for new IT requirements. It’s an alternative to capital investment in systems and software, as agencies look to eliminate 800 data centers over the next four years in accordance with the Federal Data Center Consolidation Initiative.

• ENCODE (Encyclopedia Of DNA Elements), a massive database cataloging the human genome’s functional elements, including genes, RNA transcripts, and other products, has been created by an international team of researchers, with principal investigators at Penn State University and HudsonAlpha Institute for Biotechnology.
  ENCODE is being made available as an open resource to the scientific community, classrooms, science writers, and the public.
  
  
• The DOE said:
  Crude oil stocks fell 2.3 million barrels
  Gasoline stocks fell 1.6 million
  Distillate stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels.
  
  
  
  
• British security researchers have figured out that iPhones keep track of where their owners go.  The data includes the phone's latitude and longitude and is timestamped to the second.
• (Reuters) - Babies exposed to pesticides before birth may have significantly lower intelligence scores by age 7 than children who were not exposed, three separate studies published on Thursday said.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Canadian Wheat Board said the start to the season is 10 days to three weeks behind schedule.

• YoY U.S. housing starts rose 549,000 in March, and up 7.2% MoM. A glut of housing on the market will make further gains difficult.

• The world's oldest man is celebrating his 114th birthday with a traditional Japanese meal. Jirouemon Kimura began his new year with a breakfast of grilled fish with steamed rice and red beans.

• Construction output in the euro zone fell 0.7% MoM

• Japanese consumer confidence fell from 41.2 in February to 38.6 in March

• Cotton leaf curl virus may play havoc with the cotton crop in Pakistan
  
  
• Mark Welch, grain marketing specialist at Texas A&M predicts Texas will produce about 33M bushels of wheat, roughly one-third its average harvest. China and Western Europe also are dry.
  
  

Quick Overview

• S&P put a “negative” outlook on the U.S. AAA credit rating, citing rising budget deficits and debt. The Dow Jones industrial futures sank 200 points within half an hour of the news.
• Russia intends to further lighten its U.S. debt holdings and is looking to  buy gold and increase their holdings in currencies such as the Canadian dollar.
  

• (Freese-Notis) "When it comes to the weather for the second half of April, what we have in store this year for the Nation's midsection is about as bad as one could imagine for fieldwork. Extended periods of dry weather during that time frame are completely out of the question, and even stringing together as little as two straight days of completely dry weather is going to be a real chore."
• France,  China and U.S have very dry conditions -- raising wheat concerns.
• SovEcon, a Russian agriculture research and consulting body, said Russia wouldn't lift its ban on grain exports before July

• (Bloomberg) China’s farmland shrank by 8.33 million hectares (20.6 million acres) in the past 12 years, Premier Wen Jiabao’s top agriculture adviser Chen Xiwen told reporters March 24

• (Dow Jones)--China, the world's second-largest corn consumer, will limit corn consumption in non-feed sectors to ensure supply for animal feed mills and to help control prices, corn traders and local media reports said.

Quick Overview

• Chinas reserve ratios will rise a half point from April 21, the People’s Bank of China said.

• Greenspan warns of US Debt Crisis and urges end to The Bush tax cuts.
• ( ABC) Since 1992, the average federal income tax actually paid by the wealthiest 400 U.S. households has fallen from 26% to 17%.

• Spiking food price is the biggest challenge facing developing countries nowadays, World Bank Group President Robert Zoellick said.
  
  
• The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the combined stocks of nine edible  oils will fall 25 % to 9.39 million metric tons this year, or about 23 days of demand, the fewest since 1974.

Shortage Threat Drives Texas Schools Hoarding Bullion at HSBC
“If you own a paper contract where they can only deliver you 10 cents on the dollar or less, you should probably convert it to physical,” said Bass, who isn’t related to Fort Worth’s billionaire Bass family. He said holding cash wasn’t a better choice because the rate of inflation exceeds money-market rates by 2.5 percent to 3 percent, eroding the value of cash.

Next Update Sunday -- Skiing

Goldman Sachs Misled Congress After Duping Clients
(Bloomberg)Senator Carl Levin, releasing the findings of a two-year inquiry, said he wants the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission to examine whether Goldman Sachs violated the law by misleading clients who bought the complex securities known as collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) without knowing the firm was betting they would fall in value.