Quick Overview

• Boosted by a soon-to-expire tax break, low mortgage rates and favorable weather, sales of U.S. new homes surged 27% in March and up 23.8% YoY
  

• Customs authorities said China's exports rose 24.3% in March to US$112.1 billion from the same month a year earlier, while imports soared 66% YoY $119.3 billion. Foreign trade rose 44.1% to $617.85 billion.
  

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders fell 1.3% in March. Excluding transportation, orders rose 2.8%

• U.K. GDP rose 0.2% in Q1 and fell 0 .3% YoY
  

• Canada’s consumer price index rose 1.4%
  Canada’s retail sales rose 0 .5% in February
  

• EU industrial new orders rose 1.1% in February and 12.7% YoY
  

• The USDA said that, as of March 31st, there were 510.5 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, down 14% YoY
  

• The USDA said that 2.21 billion pounds of beef were produced in March, up 3% YoY
  

• The USDA said pork production totaled 2.04 billion pounds, up 4% YoY
  
  
  
  

Fitch warns of debt 'shock' for Japan
The Fitch Report comes two days after the IMF warned that the global banking crisis has mutated into a sovereign debt crisis that risks setting off a second phase of economic turmoil.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 24,000 last week to 456,000,
  

• U.S. Producer price index rose 0.7% MoM and up 6.0% YoY
  

• U.S. Existing home sales rose 6.8%.
  

• Canada’s leading indicators rose 1.0% in March
  

• Manufacturing and services in the Euro area rose from 55.9 to 57.3
  

• YoY U.K. Retail sales rose 2.2% in March.
  

• The International Grains Council (IGC) sees wheat carryout at the end of 2010/11 at a nine year high of 199 MMT. The increase, despite lower production and higher usage, is due to the 30 MMT increase in opening stocks left over from bumper production in 2008/09.
  Corn ending stocks on the other hand are seen falling from 148 MMt to 140 MMT at the end of 2010/11.

• China's copper imports rose by 53% in March

• Greek debt fears continue to shake world markets

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications increased 13.6% last week.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.9 million barrels last week to 355.9 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.6 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 600,000 barrels.
  Refinery use increased from 85.6% to 85.9% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 2.7%
  Distillate demand fell 0.1%

Solar Superstorm
Scientists are finally beginning to properly understand a historic solar storm in 1859. One day, the storm, which was the most potent disruption of Earth's ionosphere in recorded history could happen again

An Eruption of Reality
But beyond a certain level, connectivity becomes a hazard. The longer and more complex the lines of communication and the more dependent we become on production and business elsewhere, the greater the potential for disruption. This is one of the lessons of the banking crisis. Impoverished mortagage defaulters in the United States - the butterfly’s wing over the Atlantic - almost broke the global economy. If the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano - by no means a monster - keeps retching it could, in these fragile times, produce the same effect.

We have several such vulnerabilities. The most catastrophic would be an unexpected coronal mass ejection - a solar storm - which causes a surge of direct current down our electricity grids, taking out the transformers. It could happen in seconds; the damage and collapse would take years to reverse, if we ever recovered. We would soon become aware of our dependence on electricity: an asset which, like oxygen, we notice only when it fails.

Quick Overview

• U.K. Consumer price index rose 3.4%
  

• India raised its interest rate from 5.00% to 5.25%.
  

• Goldman Sachs said that it earned $3.46 billion in Q1, up $1.8 billion YoY
  

• India stopped exporting cotton to protect domestic supplies.
  
  

Germany warns of 'Lehman' crisis if Greece defaults
An administrator of China's foreign exchange fund SAFE – the world's top investor – was quoted by Asia's newswire IGM-FX warning that Greece may set off a chain reaction in the eurozone, and that some states with big debts may default.

Quick Overview

• CitiBank reports its strongest results in three years as Q1 profit surges to $4.43 billion, or 15c a share.
  

• The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 1.4% in March
  

• Construction output in the EU fell 2.9% MoM and 10.2% YoY
  

• July lumber closed up its $10 daily limit for the second day

• The SEC split 3 to 2 along party lines to approve an enforcement action against Goldman Sachs.

• PG announced an increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.44 to $0.4818 per share. P&G has been paying a dividend for 120 consecutive years since its incorporation in 1890.

SEC charges Goldman Sachs with fraud
The Wall Street investment bank, which has consistently denied working against its clients, is accused of creating a complex mortgage investment product which was designed to fail.

How an Icelandic volcano helped spark the French Revolution
Then as now, there were more wide-ranging impacts. In Norway, the Netherlands, the British Isles, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, in North America and even Egypt, the Laki eruption had its consequences, as the haze of dust and sulphur particles thrown up by the volcano was carried over much of the northern hemisphere.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 24,000 last week to 484,000 -- more than expected.
  

• U.S. industrial production was up 0.1% in March and up 4.0% YoY
  

• The Philadelphia Fed's regional index of manufacturing increased from 18.9 to 20.2 in April.
  

• The New York Fed's regional index of manufacturing increased from 22.86 to 31.86 in March -- better than expected.
  
  
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Retail sales jumped 1.6% -- the largest increase since November as consumers stepped up purchases of vehicles and wide range of goods. January sales were revised up to a 0.5% rise from 0.3%.
  

• U.S. consumer price index was up 0.1% in March and up 2.3% YoY.
  
• U.S. business sales were up 0.3% in February
  
• U.S. Inventories rose 0 .5%
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications fell 9.6% last week
  

• Industrial production in the EU rose 0.7% MoM and up 3.5% YoY
  

• New Zealand retail sales fell 0.6% in February
  

• Germany's cocoa grind saw its third consecutive year-on-year quarterly gain in the first three months of 2010, increasing by 10.31 percent, the association of German confectionery producers BDSI said on Tuesday.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.2 million barrels 354.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 500,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 84.5% to 85.6% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand fell 2.8% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 0.4% YoY.

• U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 7% in Q1 of 2010 from the previous quarter, market researcher RealtyTrac said.

• China’s economic growth accelerated to 11.9 per cent in the first quarter

Quick Overview

• (Dow Jones)--Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Monday cut its three-month gold forecast by 8% and raised its copper price forecast by 4.6%, citing stronger copper demand across Asia, Europe and the U.S.
  

• U.S. exports rose 0.2% in February while imports rose 1.7% . The result was $39.7 billion of net imports, up from $37.0 billion in January.
  

• Canada’s exports rose 2.8% in February while imports rose 0.9%. The result was net exports of C$1.4 billion, up from $754 million in January.
  

• YoY Japan’s producer prices fell 1.3% in March.

• China announced that it will raise fuel prices by 4 to 4.5% tomorrow.
  
  

The Greek people are being punished for Europe's errors
As I write, it appears that EU experts have agreed on a package of €20bn to €25bn at 350 points above the IMF tariff, or 5pc. This achieves nothing. Such wishful thinking has plagued the Greek/EMU crisis from the start. Simon Johnson, the IMF's former chief economist, said Greece needs €110bn to have any hope of pulling itself out of a tail-spin, given that the twin cures of default and devaluation are blocked. Even that may not work. Greece must squeeze a further 13pc of GDP from the budget to stabilise debt costs by 2012, and do so during a slump when every euro of tightening leads to €1.5 to €2 in lost demand. "The risk is of a viscious downward cycle," Mr Johnson wrote in the Huffington Post.

Greece Wins EU45 Billion Aid Pledge to Blunt Crisis
(Bloomberg) -- European governments offered debt- plagued Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates in a bid to stem its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro.

Quick Overview

• Oppenheimer analyst Scott Burk said the very large crude carrier day rate was about $59,000 Friday, up from about $20,000 to $30,000 a few weeks ago.
  

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.8% MoM and 9.8% YoY
  

• U.S. Inventories rose 0.6% MoM but fell 7.4% YoY
  

• Canada's unemployment rate stayed at 8.2% in March,
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was increased from 1.799 to 1.899 billion bushels.
  Soybeans remained at 190 million bushels.
  Wheat was reduced from 1,001 to 950 million bushels.
  Sugar was increased from 1.075 to 1.218 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 3.20 to 3.00 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was increased from 140 to 144 million tons.
  Soybeans were increased from 61 to 63 million tons.
  Wheat was reduced from 197 to 196 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced slightly to 51 million tons.
  
  

• The USDA expects beef production to be down 1% in 2010
  
  

• The USDA expects pork production to be down 3% in 2010
  
  

• The USDA estimate's Florida's 2009-2010 orange crop up from 131 to 132 million boxes and the projected juice yield was raised from 1.53 to 1.56 gallons per box

• China ran its first monthly trade deficit in six years in March of $7.24 billion, down from a surplus of $7.61 billion in February. Customs official called the shortfall a blip.
  

Quick Overview

• A Nevada report said YoY revenue from gaming climbed nearly 14% in Feb.
  

• U.S. Jobless claims rose 18,000 last week to 460,000, more than expected.
  

• Japan's machinery orders fell 5.4% in February
  

• Australia's unemployment rate stayed at 5.3% in March
  

• EU retail sales in were unchanged in February and down 0.7% YoY
  

• U.K.’s manufacturing index rose 1.3% in February and up 1.4% YoY
  

Quick Overview

• The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications fell 11% last week.
  

• Agriculture’s rise on rumors China will soon allow the Yuan to go up.
  

• GDP in the EU rose 0 .1% in Q4 and fell 2.3% YoY
  

• Services in the U.K. fell from 58.4 to 56.5 in March
  

• The U.S. Energy Department said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.0 million barrels last week to 356.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 2.5 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 600,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 82.6% to 84.5% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.7% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.2% YoY
  
  

Updates resume April 7

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management said services increased from 53.0 to 55.4 in March,
  
  

• U.S. Pending home sales rose 8.2% MoM and up 17.3% YoY
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The US economy created 162,000 jobs last month as the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.75%

• (FT) China has offered to accelerate free trade agreement talks with India in a bid to balance a burgeoning trade relationship between two of Asia’s largest economies

The IMF should impose default on Greece to end the charade
Real GDP has fallen by less, 12.6pc. The rest is the effect of deflation. But what matters most for debt is nominal GDP. The same debt load has to be financed from a nominal economy that has shrunk by almost a fifth. That is why deflation can be so deadly, as it was from 1930-1933.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 6,000 last week to 439,000.
  

• The ISM index of manufacturing rose from 56.5 to 59.6 in March -- stronger than expected.
  

• U.S. Construction spending fell 1.3% MoM and down 12.8% YoY

• Japan’s Tankan index rose from -25 to -14 in March
  

• Manufacturing index in the U.K. rose from 56.5 to 57.2 in March
  

• Manufacturing index in the Euro area rose from 54.2 to 56.6 in March

• (Reuters) - A Manhattan federal judge threw out a class-action lawsuit accusing Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's of defrauding investors about the safety of $63.4 billion of mortgage debt.

• India's government on Thursday brought into force a new law that makes education free and compulsory for every child from age 6 to 14 --

Quick Overview

• ADP Employer Services said that they show a loss of 23,000 U.S. private sector jobs in March
  

• Unemployment in the EU rose from 9.5% to 9.6% in February
  

• Consumer prices in the EU rose1.5% in March
  
  

• The USDA expects farmers in 2010-2011 to plant:
  88.8 million acres of corn, up 3% YoY.
  78.1 million acres of soybeans, up slightly YoY.
  53.8 million acres of wheat, down 9% YoY.
  13.9 million acres of spring wheat, up 5% YoY.
  10.5 million acres of cotton, up 15% YoY.
  
  
  

• The USDA said that on March 1st, there were:
  7.69 billion bushels of corn stocks, up 11% YoY.
  1.27 billion bushels of soybean stocks, down 2% YoY.
  1.35 billion bushels of wheat stocks, up 30% YoY.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.9 million barrels to 354.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 300,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 1.0 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.1% to 82.6% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.5%
  Distillate demand fell 1.0% YoY
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Standard and Poors/Case-Shiller index of home prices in twenty cities fell 0.4% in January and down 0.7% YoY.
  

• The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence rose from 46.4 to 52.5 in March, better than expected.
  

• U.K.’s GDP rose 0.4% Q4 and fell 3.1% YoY
  

• Japan's unemployment rate was unchanged in February, at 4.9%
  Japan’s industrial production fell 0.9%.
  Japan’s household spending fell 0.5% in February
  

• (FT) Global miners have agreed to a record increase in iron ore prices after they signed deals to replace the 40-year-old pricing system based on annual contracts with new short-term deals linked to the spot market
  
  

• The WSJ reported that Apple plans to make an iPhone that will work with Verizon’s CDMA (Qualcomm) network
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes were unchanged in February
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.3%.
  

• YoY Japan's retail sales rose 4.2% in February
  

• USDA said that there were 63.988 million head of hogs and pigs in the U.S. on March 1st -- down 2.8% YoY
  

• The World Gold Council said China's gold consumption was 11% of world demand in 2009 and that it was expected to double in the next ten years.

• Weekly soybean shipments = 29.3 mln bu; shipments to date exceed seasonal pace needed to reach USDA target by 170 mln bu & gap is growing (Arlan Suderman)

• The Reserve Bank of Australia sounded a hawkish warning over interest rates.
  

• China is expected to grow 12% in the first three months of this year due to faster-than-expected factory output.
  

• In 2009, China produced 189 million tons of crude oil, but imported an extra 199 million tons, and the oil import dependence well exceeded the warning line of 50%t for the first time to reach 51.29 percent.
  

• Demand for steel around the world will rise 11 percent in 2010 as the global economy recovers, World Steel Association said.

• (WSJ) Demand for uranium looks set to drive a fresh wave of Chinese investment in Australia-listed miners as nuclear power generators seek supply for dozens of planned reactors.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• Shares started to trim their gains amid reports that a South Korean navy ship had sunk in waters near disputed maritime border with North Korea.

• Barack Obama and Russia's Dmitry Medvedev agreed on cuts in the nuclear arsenals of both nations.
  

• The U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in six years during the final three months of 2009, fueled by a huge inventory adjustment, strong business investments and modest consumer spending, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. U.S. real gross domestic product increased at a 5.6% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, revised down from the 5.9% pace reported a month ago
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment unchanged at 73.6 in March,
  

• Euro zone / IMF officials reached an agreement to provide emergency aid to Greece, if necessary.
  

• YoY Japan's consumer prices fell 1.1% in February
  

• U.S. beef production totaled 1.96 billion pounds in February, down 2% YoY
  

• U.S. Pork production totaled 1.76 billion pounds in February, down 3% YoY

• The US Supreme Court has denied an injunction from Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox to close the Chicago Canal to block entry of Asian carp considered to be an invasive species that threaten the Great Lakes environment.
  The carp, which have made their way up he Mississippi from the Gulf of Mexico, grow up to 100 pounds and eat 40 per cent of their body weight a day.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims fell 14,000 last week to 442,000
  

• YoY U.K. Retail sales rose 4.9% in February
  

• The International Grain Council predicted that world corn planting will be up 2% in 2010-2011

• (Reuters) - Euro zone leaders agreed on Thursday to create a joint financial safety net with the IMF to help debt-ridden Greece and to try to restore confidence in their common currency after weeks of wrangling.
  
  

Quick Overview

• Macquarie foresaw big falls in global oil inventories and said the huge surplus of oil in tankers at sea could be gone by summer.
  

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.5% in February January's # were revised up from 2.6% to 3.9%
  

• U.S. new home sales fell 2.2% MoM and down 13.0% YoY
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications fell 4.2% last week.
  

• Fitch Rating Services cut the credit rating for Portugal one step to AA-.
  

• Industrial new orders in the EU fell 0.2% MoM, but rose 6.3% YoY
  

• Services and manufacturing index in the Euro area rose from 53.7 to 55.5 in March
  

• YoY Japan's exports rose 45% in February -- Imports rose 30%.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 7.3 million barrels last week to 351.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 2.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 80.6% to 81.1% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 1.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.9% YoY.
  

• Figures from Hong Kong Airport Authority showed that cargo volume rose 30% YoY in February to 257,000 tonnes.
  

• Air cargo demand is rocketing in response to global economic recovery, says Lufthansa Cargo CEO Carsten Spohr.
  

• (FT) China’s second-largest mobile operator has announced it will remove Google’s search function from new handsets developed with the US company in the first concrete fallout of the clash with Beijing over internet censorship.
  (Spiegel) Google has stopped playing by the Chinese rules and moved its search engine to Hong Kong. The move allows the company to keep one foot in China while fulfilling its promise to end self-censorship.
  

• (WSJ) Bank of America said it would offer more borrowers reductions in their mortgage-loan balances in the latest twist on efforts to avert foreclosures

• The Department of Transportation’s second-highest official told senators that DOT’s preference for freight shipping is keep goods on waterways and rail as much as possible, getting them away from trucks except for the final delivery

Quick Overview

• U.S. Existing home sales fell 06% MoM.
  

• The Richmond Fed's regional index of manufacturing rose from +2 to +6 in March

• Canada’s leading indicators rose 0.8% in February
  
  

• The USDA said there were 516.8 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, down 17% YoY.
  

• The USDA said frozen supplies of orange juice concentrate in storage totaled 1.295 billion pounds, up 3% YoY.
  

• The International Copper Study Group said that world production of copper exceeded usage by 365,000 tons, up from a 224,000 ton surplus in 2008. In December alone, production exceeded usage by 115,000 tons. May copper ended down .0015 at $3.3790.
  

• YoY U.K.'s consumer prices rose 0. 3.0% in February
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 5,000 last week to 457,000
  
  

• U.S. Consumer prices were unchanged in February and up 2.1% YoY
  
  

• U.S. leading indicators rose 0.1% in January.
  
  

• The Philadelphia Fed regional index of manufacturing rose from 17.6 to 18.9 in March
  
  

• YoY Greece's jobless rate rose to 10.3% in Q4 from 7.9
  
  

• F.O. Licht raised its forecast for the global sugar deficit in 2009/10 to 7.7 million tonnes, up from a previous projection of 6.0 million.

• (AP) U.N. rejects ban on Atlantic bluefin tuna.. It has been done in by the growing demand for raw tuna for traditional dishes such as sushi and sashimi. The bluefin variety - called "hon-maguro" in Japan - is particularly prized with a 200-kilogram (440-pound) Pacific bluefin tuna fetched a record 20.2 million yen ($220,000) last year.

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices fell 0.6% MoM and rose 4.4% YoY
  

• U.S. Mortgage applications fell 1.9% last week.
  

• U.K.'s unemployment out at 7.8%, down from 7.9% MoM
  

• EU construction output fell 2.0% in January.
  

• Japan's tertiary index of services rose 2.9% in January
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.0 million barrels last week to 344.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.4 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 80.7% to 80.6% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 1.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 3.1% YoY

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts were at an annual rate of 575,000 in Feb, down 5.9% MoM, but up 0.2% YoY
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 2.4% in January.
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the EU rose 1.4% in February

• The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.125%, as expected.
  
  

• The World Bank raised its forecast for China's growth this year to 9.5%
  
  

• (WSJ) The Bank of Japan decided to loosen monetary policy further by increasing the amount of low-interest loans available to the money market, stepping up its efforts to energize the country's anemic private demand to eradicate deflation.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Industrial production rose 0.1% in February
  

• The New York Fed's regional index of manufacturing fell from 24.9 to 22.9 in March
  

• Canada's existing home sales fell 1.5% in February.

Lehman’s Fuld ‘Negligent’ as Firm Hid Leverage, Examiner Says
Then-Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld was “at least grossly negligent” for letting Lehman file financial reports in which a key gauge of strength was “reverse-engineered” through transactions known as Repo 105s, bankruptcy examiner Anton Valukas said in a report yesterday. Lehman auditor Ernst & Young LLP could be accused of “professional malpractice,” he said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 6,000 last week to 462,000
  
  

• Falling domestic demand for oil and foreign cars narrowed the US trade gap in January. The result was net imports of $37.3 billion, down from $39.9 billion in December.
  
  

• YoY consumer prices in China rose 2.7% in February
  
  

• Australia's unemployment rate rose from 5.2% to 5.3% in February
  
  

• Japan's GDP was rose 0.9% in Q4 and 1.4% YoY.
  
  

• MoM U.S. silver imports rose 23.4% in January but fell 9.9% YoY.
  
  

• (Spiegel) The German government has discovered the Internet and data privacy as a political issue. The new debate over who should control the online world reveals a clash of two cultures, with the American ideal of freedom contrasting with the European desire for privacy.

• Ship container volumes from Asia to Europe rose for a third consecutive month in January, growing by over 10% YoY.

Quick Overview

• Japan's machinery orders fell 3.7% in January.
  
  

• YoY China's exports rose 46% in February and imports rose 45%.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 1.719 to 1.799 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were lowered from 210 to 190 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from .981 to 1.001 billion bushels.
  Sugar was raised from 1.055 to 1.075 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 3.3 to 3.2 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 134 to 140 million tons.
  Soybeans were raised from 60 to 61 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 196 to 197 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 52 to 51 million bales.
  
  OJ was raised from 129 to 131 million boxes, but yield was lowered from 1.56 to 1.53 gallons per box
  
  
  

Markopolos Sums it up

Fitch warns Britain and questions Greek rescue as sovereign risks grow
A string of European states are stepping up the pace of retrenchment, aiming to cut deficits to 3pc of GDP within three years. The risk is that Britain will soon stick out like a sore thumb, left behind with a shockingly large deficit long after such loose fiscal policy can be justified as a crisis measure. The UK deficit this year is 12.6pc of GDP, the highest among G10 states.

Quick Overview

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Luxembourg's Prime Minister Juncker said today that Europe and the U.S. must take quick action to regulate credit-default swaps before more financial crises occur.
• (It’s like buying fire insurance on your neighbor’s house — you create an incentive to burn it down)
  

• Lumber closed up its $10 daily limit.
  

• The U.S. DOE expects world oil demand to increase from 84.0 to 85.5 million barrels per day in 2010, up from last month's estimate of 85.3.
  

• U.K. exports fell 6.9% in January while imports fell 1.6%.
  

• Japan's coincident index rose from 97.4 to 99.9 in January, better than expected
  

• Sugar prices endure another pounding after estimates for India's production this season were revised higher.
  

• The CME is to launch a US dollar-denominated cash-settled crude palm oil futures contract on May 23
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said European officials are lucky that the euro region’s first major crisis was sparked by one of its smaller members and he’s confident the currency will survive.
  

• U.S. rail carload freight reaches highest level in more than a year
  

• World oil consumption has recovered back to its pre-crash peak. Numbers published for December 2009, and January 2010 show that demand for the crude once again touched 86.4 MB/d – or A Thousand Barrels a Second.
  

• (WSJ) China faces mounting pressure from trading partners to loosen currency controls and is giving signs it might raise the value of the Yuan to ease strains on its fast-growing economy.
  

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture should permit importation of an extra one million tons of raw sugar because domestic stocks are in danger of running out, said John Sheptor, chief executive of Imperial Sugar Company.
  

• China's high speed rail network (HSR ) is shaping up at an extraordinary speed. The country saw its first experimental HSR in operation in 2003, but by 2014, it will have reached 28,000 km in length - twice as large as similar networks in the rest of the world combined.
  

• A nationwide referendum is taking place in Switzerland on a proposal to give animals the constitutional right to be represented in court.
  
  

• (FT) Reykjavik vowed to seek a fresh debt repayment deal with Britain and the Netherlands, but urged the two countries to heed the ‘strong cry of defiance’ delivered by voters in the weekend referendum on the issue.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate stayed at 9.7% in February while non-farm payrolls fell 36,000.

• (Bloomberg) -- Borrowing by U.S. consumers unexpectedly rose in January for the first time in a year, led by auto loans and indicating Americans are gaining confidence in the economy.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 29,000 last week to 469,000
  

• U.S. pending home sales fell 7.6% MoM but rose 9% YoY
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.7% in January
  

• U.S. non-farm productivity increased 5.8% in Q4
  

• Japan's business investment fell 17% in Q4
  

• The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged.
  

• The EU kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.00%,
  

• EU GDP fell 2.3% in Q4
  

• Japan's business investment fell 17% in Q4
  

• Greece’s five-year bond was three times oversubscribed.
  

• Analysts in China expect the country's iron ore imports in March this year could reach an all-time record high of 60 million mt.
  

• Australian Iron ore exports may rise to AU$35 billion ($31 billion) in the 12 months ending June 30, 2011, from AU$29 billion ($26.2 billion) this year.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Managements' index of U.S. services increased from 50.5 to 53.0 in February --the highest since December of 2007.
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said U.S. Mortgage applications rose 14.6% last week.
  

• Australia's GDP rose 0.9% in Q4 of 2009 and up 2.7% YoY
  

• An index of services in the U.K. rose from 54.5 to 58.4
  

• YoY container volumes on the transpacific eastbound trade from Asia to the US fell by 15.3% in 2009 to 10.1 million TEU
  

• The International Cocoa Organization expects world production of cocoa to fall short of consumption by 18,000 tons in 2009-2010.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 4.1 million barrels last week to 341.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 700,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 400,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.2% to 81.9%
  Gasoline demand rose 0.1% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 4.8% YoY.
  

Data, data everywhere
WHEN the Sloan Digital Sky Survey started work in 2000, its telescope in New Mexico collected more data in its first few weeks than had been amassed in the entire history of astronomy. Now, a decade later, its archive contains a whopping 140 terabytes of information. A successor, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, due to come on stream in Chile in 2016, will acquire that quantity of data every five days.

Such astronomical amounts of information can be found closer to Earth too. Wal-Mart, a retail giant,..

Quick Overview

• YoY global air travel rose 6.4% in January.
  

• Australia hiked its interest rate to 4%.
  

• Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%
  

• Japan’s unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 4.9% in January
  

• The CME said YoY interest rate futures volume rose 37%. Its equity index volume dropped 14% while energy contracts rose 5% and foreign exchange surged 82%. Metals contracts rose 57%.
  

• The Indian prime minister's economic advisory panel said white sugar stocks could "rapidly approach the nil level", and urged imports of 3m-5m tonnes.
  

• Shanghai, the world's second largest container port after Singapore, experienced a throughput increase of 18% to 2.24 million TEU in January, reported Xinhua.

Don't go wobbly on us now, Ben Bernanke
The Fed's Monetary Multiplier dropped to an all-time low of 0.809 last week.

Quick Overview

• (WSJ) The EU's monetary affairs commissioner said the EU is ready to support Greece, but urged the country to take further measures to shrink its budget deficit.
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.1% in January
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.5%.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management said its index of U.S. manufacturing fell from 58.4 to 56.5
  

• MoM U.S. construction spending fell 0.6%.
  

• Canada’s GDP rose 0.6% in December

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