The IMF should impose default on Greece to end the charade
Real GDP has fallen by less, 12.6pc. The rest is the effect of deflation. But what matters most for debt is nominal GDP. The same debt load has to be financed from a nominal economy that has shrunk by almost a fifth. That is why deflation can be so deadly, as it was from 1930-1933.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 6,000 last week to 439,000.
  

• The ISM index of manufacturing rose from 56.5 to 59.6 in March -- stronger than expected.
  

• U.S. Construction spending fell 1.3% MoM and down 12.8% YoY

• Japan’s Tankan index rose from -25 to -14 in March
  

• Manufacturing index in the U.K. rose from 56.5 to 57.2 in March
  

• Manufacturing index in the Euro area rose from 54.2 to 56.6 in March

• (Reuters) - A Manhattan federal judge threw out a class-action lawsuit accusing Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's of defrauding investors about the safety of $63.4 billion of mortgage debt.

• India's government on Thursday brought into force a new law that makes education free and compulsory for every child from age 6 to 14 --

Quick Overview

• ADP Employer Services said that they show a loss of 23,000 U.S. private sector jobs in March
  

• Unemployment in the EU rose from 9.5% to 9.6% in February
  

• Consumer prices in the EU rose1.5% in March
  
  

• The USDA expects farmers in 2010-2011 to plant:
  88.8 million acres of corn, up 3% YoY.
  78.1 million acres of soybeans, up slightly YoY.
  53.8 million acres of wheat, down 9% YoY.
  13.9 million acres of spring wheat, up 5% YoY.
  10.5 million acres of cotton, up 15% YoY.
  
  
  

• The USDA said that on March 1st, there were:
  7.69 billion bushels of corn stocks, up 11% YoY.
  1.27 billion bushels of soybean stocks, down 2% YoY.
  1.35 billion bushels of wheat stocks, up 30% YoY.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.9 million barrels to 354.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 300,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 1.0 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.1% to 82.6% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.5%
  Distillate demand fell 1.0% YoY
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Standard and Poors/Case-Shiller index of home prices in twenty cities fell 0.4% in January and down 0.7% YoY.
  

• The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence rose from 46.4 to 52.5 in March, better than expected.
  

• U.K.’s GDP rose 0.4% Q4 and fell 3.1% YoY
  

• Japan's unemployment rate was unchanged in February, at 4.9%
  Japan’s industrial production fell 0.9%.
  Japan’s household spending fell 0.5% in February
  

• (FT) Global miners have agreed to a record increase in iron ore prices after they signed deals to replace the 40-year-old pricing system based on annual contracts with new short-term deals linked to the spot market
  
  

• The WSJ reported that Apple plans to make an iPhone that will work with Verizon’s CDMA (Qualcomm) network
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes were unchanged in February
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.3%.
  

• YoY Japan's retail sales rose 4.2% in February
  

• USDA said that there were 63.988 million head of hogs and pigs in the U.S. on March 1st -- down 2.8% YoY
  

• The World Gold Council said China's gold consumption was 11% of world demand in 2009 and that it was expected to double in the next ten years.

• Weekly soybean shipments = 29.3 mln bu; shipments to date exceed seasonal pace needed to reach USDA target by 170 mln bu & gap is growing (Arlan Suderman)

• The Reserve Bank of Australia sounded a hawkish warning over interest rates.
  

• China is expected to grow 12% in the first three months of this year due to faster-than-expected factory output.
  

• In 2009, China produced 189 million tons of crude oil, but imported an extra 199 million tons, and the oil import dependence well exceeded the warning line of 50%t for the first time to reach 51.29 percent.
  

• Demand for steel around the world will rise 11 percent in 2010 as the global economy recovers, World Steel Association said.

• (WSJ) Demand for uranium looks set to drive a fresh wave of Chinese investment in Australia-listed miners as nuclear power generators seek supply for dozens of planned reactors.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• Shares started to trim their gains amid reports that a South Korean navy ship had sunk in waters near disputed maritime border with North Korea.

• Barack Obama and Russia's Dmitry Medvedev agreed on cuts in the nuclear arsenals of both nations.
  

• The U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in six years during the final three months of 2009, fueled by a huge inventory adjustment, strong business investments and modest consumer spending, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. U.S. real gross domestic product increased at a 5.6% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, revised down from the 5.9% pace reported a month ago
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment unchanged at 73.6 in March,
  

• Euro zone / IMF officials reached an agreement to provide emergency aid to Greece, if necessary.
  

• YoY Japan's consumer prices fell 1.1% in February
  

• U.S. beef production totaled 1.96 billion pounds in February, down 2% YoY
  

• U.S. Pork production totaled 1.76 billion pounds in February, down 3% YoY

• The US Supreme Court has denied an injunction from Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox to close the Chicago Canal to block entry of Asian carp considered to be an invasive species that threaten the Great Lakes environment.
  The carp, which have made their way up he Mississippi from the Gulf of Mexico, grow up to 100 pounds and eat 40 per cent of their body weight a day.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims fell 14,000 last week to 442,000
  

• YoY U.K. Retail sales rose 4.9% in February
  

• The International Grain Council predicted that world corn planting will be up 2% in 2010-2011

• (Reuters) - Euro zone leaders agreed on Thursday to create a joint financial safety net with the IMF to help debt-ridden Greece and to try to restore confidence in their common currency after weeks of wrangling.
  
  

Quick Overview

• Macquarie foresaw big falls in global oil inventories and said the huge surplus of oil in tankers at sea could be gone by summer.
  

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.5% in February January's # were revised up from 2.6% to 3.9%
  

• U.S. new home sales fell 2.2% MoM and down 13.0% YoY
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications fell 4.2% last week.
  

• Fitch Rating Services cut the credit rating for Portugal one step to AA-.
  

• Industrial new orders in the EU fell 0.2% MoM, but rose 6.3% YoY
  

• Services and manufacturing index in the Euro area rose from 53.7 to 55.5 in March
  

• YoY Japan's exports rose 45% in February -- Imports rose 30%.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 7.3 million barrels last week to 351.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 2.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 80.6% to 81.1% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 1.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.9% YoY.
  

• Figures from Hong Kong Airport Authority showed that cargo volume rose 30% YoY in February to 257,000 tonnes.
  

• Air cargo demand is rocketing in response to global economic recovery, says Lufthansa Cargo CEO Carsten Spohr.
  

• (FT) China’s second-largest mobile operator has announced it will remove Google’s search function from new handsets developed with the US company in the first concrete fallout of the clash with Beijing over internet censorship.
  (Spiegel) Google has stopped playing by the Chinese rules and moved its search engine to Hong Kong. The move allows the company to keep one foot in China while fulfilling its promise to end self-censorship.
  

• (WSJ) Bank of America said it would offer more borrowers reductions in their mortgage-loan balances in the latest twist on efforts to avert foreclosures

• The Department of Transportation’s second-highest official told senators that DOT’s preference for freight shipping is keep goods on waterways and rail as much as possible, getting them away from trucks except for the final delivery

Quick Overview

• U.S. Existing home sales fell 06% MoM.
  

• The Richmond Fed's regional index of manufacturing rose from +2 to +6 in March

• Canada’s leading indicators rose 0.8% in February
  
  

• The USDA said there were 516.8 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, down 17% YoY.
  

• The USDA said frozen supplies of orange juice concentrate in storage totaled 1.295 billion pounds, up 3% YoY.
  

• The International Copper Study Group said that world production of copper exceeded usage by 365,000 tons, up from a 224,000 ton surplus in 2008. In December alone, production exceeded usage by 115,000 tons. May copper ended down .0015 at $3.3790.
  

• YoY U.K.'s consumer prices rose 0. 3.0% in February
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 5,000 last week to 457,000
  
  

• U.S. Consumer prices were unchanged in February and up 2.1% YoY
  
  

• U.S. leading indicators rose 0.1% in January.
  
  

• The Philadelphia Fed regional index of manufacturing rose from 17.6 to 18.9 in March
  
  

• YoY Greece's jobless rate rose to 10.3% in Q4 from 7.9
  
  

• F.O. Licht raised its forecast for the global sugar deficit in 2009/10 to 7.7 million tonnes, up from a previous projection of 6.0 million.

• (AP) U.N. rejects ban on Atlantic bluefin tuna.. It has been done in by the growing demand for raw tuna for traditional dishes such as sushi and sashimi. The bluefin variety - called "hon-maguro" in Japan - is particularly prized with a 200-kilogram (440-pound) Pacific bluefin tuna fetched a record 20.2 million yen ($220,000) last year.

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices fell 0.6% MoM and rose 4.4% YoY
  

• U.S. Mortgage applications fell 1.9% last week.
  

• U.K.'s unemployment out at 7.8%, down from 7.9% MoM
  

• EU construction output fell 2.0% in January.
  

• Japan's tertiary index of services rose 2.9% in January
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.0 million barrels last week to 344.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.4 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 80.7% to 80.6% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 1.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 3.1% YoY

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts were at an annual rate of 575,000 in Feb, down 5.9% MoM, but up 0.2% YoY
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 2.4% in January.
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the EU rose 1.4% in February

• The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.125%, as expected.
  
  

• The World Bank raised its forecast for China's growth this year to 9.5%
  
  

• (WSJ) The Bank of Japan decided to loosen monetary policy further by increasing the amount of low-interest loans available to the money market, stepping up its efforts to energize the country's anemic private demand to eradicate deflation.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Industrial production rose 0.1% in February
  

• The New York Fed's regional index of manufacturing fell from 24.9 to 22.9 in March
  

• Canada's existing home sales fell 1.5% in February.

Lehman’s Fuld ‘Negligent’ as Firm Hid Leverage, Examiner Says
Then-Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld was “at least grossly negligent” for letting Lehman file financial reports in which a key gauge of strength was “reverse-engineered” through transactions known as Repo 105s, bankruptcy examiner Anton Valukas said in a report yesterday. Lehman auditor Ernst & Young LLP could be accused of “professional malpractice,” he said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 6,000 last week to 462,000
  
  

• Falling domestic demand for oil and foreign cars narrowed the US trade gap in January. The result was net imports of $37.3 billion, down from $39.9 billion in December.
  
  

• YoY consumer prices in China rose 2.7% in February
  
  

• Australia's unemployment rate rose from 5.2% to 5.3% in February
  
  

• Japan's GDP was rose 0.9% in Q4 and 1.4% YoY.
  
  

• MoM U.S. silver imports rose 23.4% in January but fell 9.9% YoY.
  
  

• (Spiegel) The German government has discovered the Internet and data privacy as a political issue. The new debate over who should control the online world reveals a clash of two cultures, with the American ideal of freedom contrasting with the European desire for privacy.

• Ship container volumes from Asia to Europe rose for a third consecutive month in January, growing by over 10% YoY.

Quick Overview

• Japan's machinery orders fell 3.7% in January.
  
  

• YoY China's exports rose 46% in February and imports rose 45%.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 1.719 to 1.799 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were lowered from 210 to 190 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from .981 to 1.001 billion bushels.
  Sugar was raised from 1.055 to 1.075 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 3.3 to 3.2 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 134 to 140 million tons.
  Soybeans were raised from 60 to 61 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 196 to 197 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 52 to 51 million bales.
  
  OJ was raised from 129 to 131 million boxes, but yield was lowered from 1.56 to 1.53 gallons per box
  
  
  

Markopolos Sums it up

Fitch warns Britain and questions Greek rescue as sovereign risks grow
A string of European states are stepping up the pace of retrenchment, aiming to cut deficits to 3pc of GDP within three years. The risk is that Britain will soon stick out like a sore thumb, left behind with a shockingly large deficit long after such loose fiscal policy can be justified as a crisis measure. The UK deficit this year is 12.6pc of GDP, the highest among G10 states.

Quick Overview

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Luxembourg's Prime Minister Juncker said today that Europe and the U.S. must take quick action to regulate credit-default swaps before more financial crises occur.
• (It’s like buying fire insurance on your neighbor’s house — you create an incentive to burn it down)
  

• Lumber closed up its $10 daily limit.
  

• The U.S. DOE expects world oil demand to increase from 84.0 to 85.5 million barrels per day in 2010, up from last month's estimate of 85.3.
  

• U.K. exports fell 6.9% in January while imports fell 1.6%.
  

• Japan's coincident index rose from 97.4 to 99.9 in January, better than expected
  

• Sugar prices endure another pounding after estimates for India's production this season were revised higher.
  

• The CME is to launch a US dollar-denominated cash-settled crude palm oil futures contract on May 23
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said European officials are lucky that the euro region’s first major crisis was sparked by one of its smaller members and he’s confident the currency will survive.
  

• U.S. rail carload freight reaches highest level in more than a year
  

• World oil consumption has recovered back to its pre-crash peak. Numbers published for December 2009, and January 2010 show that demand for the crude once again touched 86.4 MB/d – or A Thousand Barrels a Second.
  

• (WSJ) China faces mounting pressure from trading partners to loosen currency controls and is giving signs it might raise the value of the Yuan to ease strains on its fast-growing economy.
  

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture should permit importation of an extra one million tons of raw sugar because domestic stocks are in danger of running out, said John Sheptor, chief executive of Imperial Sugar Company.
  

• China's high speed rail network (HSR ) is shaping up at an extraordinary speed. The country saw its first experimental HSR in operation in 2003, but by 2014, it will have reached 28,000 km in length - twice as large as similar networks in the rest of the world combined.
  

• A nationwide referendum is taking place in Switzerland on a proposal to give animals the constitutional right to be represented in court.
  
  

• (FT) Reykjavik vowed to seek a fresh debt repayment deal with Britain and the Netherlands, but urged the two countries to heed the ‘strong cry of defiance’ delivered by voters in the weekend referendum on the issue.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate stayed at 9.7% in February while non-farm payrolls fell 36,000.

• (Bloomberg) -- Borrowing by U.S. consumers unexpectedly rose in January for the first time in a year, led by auto loans and indicating Americans are gaining confidence in the economy.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 29,000 last week to 469,000
  

• U.S. pending home sales fell 7.6% MoM but rose 9% YoY
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.7% in January
  

• U.S. non-farm productivity increased 5.8% in Q4
  

• Japan's business investment fell 17% in Q4
  

• The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged.
  

• The EU kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.00%,
  

• EU GDP fell 2.3% in Q4
  

• Japan's business investment fell 17% in Q4
  

• Greece’s five-year bond was three times oversubscribed.
  

• Analysts in China expect the country's iron ore imports in March this year could reach an all-time record high of 60 million mt.
  

• Australian Iron ore exports may rise to AU$35 billion ($31 billion) in the 12 months ending June 30, 2011, from AU$29 billion ($26.2 billion) this year.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Managements' index of U.S. services increased from 50.5 to 53.0 in February --the highest since December of 2007.
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said U.S. Mortgage applications rose 14.6% last week.
  

• Australia's GDP rose 0.9% in Q4 of 2009 and up 2.7% YoY
  

• An index of services in the U.K. rose from 54.5 to 58.4
  

• YoY container volumes on the transpacific eastbound trade from Asia to the US fell by 15.3% in 2009 to 10.1 million TEU
  

• The International Cocoa Organization expects world production of cocoa to fall short of consumption by 18,000 tons in 2009-2010.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 4.1 million barrels last week to 341.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 700,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 400,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.2% to 81.9%
  Gasoline demand rose 0.1% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 4.8% YoY.
  

Data, data everywhere
WHEN the Sloan Digital Sky Survey started work in 2000, its telescope in New Mexico collected more data in its first few weeks than had been amassed in the entire history of astronomy. Now, a decade later, its archive contains a whopping 140 terabytes of information. A successor, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, due to come on stream in Chile in 2016, will acquire that quantity of data every five days.

Such astronomical amounts of information can be found closer to Earth too. Wal-Mart, a retail giant,..

Quick Overview

• YoY global air travel rose 6.4% in January.
  

• Australia hiked its interest rate to 4%.
  

• Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%
  

• Japan’s unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 4.9% in January
  

• The CME said YoY interest rate futures volume rose 37%. Its equity index volume dropped 14% while energy contracts rose 5% and foreign exchange surged 82%. Metals contracts rose 57%.
  

• The Indian prime minister's economic advisory panel said white sugar stocks could "rapidly approach the nil level", and urged imports of 3m-5m tonnes.
  

• Shanghai, the world's second largest container port after Singapore, experienced a throughput increase of 18% to 2.24 million TEU in January, reported Xinhua.

Don't go wobbly on us now, Ben Bernanke
The Fed's Monetary Multiplier dropped to an all-time low of 0.809 last week.

Quick Overview

• (WSJ) The EU's monetary affairs commissioner said the EU is ready to support Greece, but urged the country to take further measures to shrink its budget deficit.
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.1% in January
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.5%.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management said its index of U.S. manufacturing fell from 58.4 to 56.5
  

• MoM U.S. construction spending fell 0.6%.
  

• Canada’s GDP rose 0.6% in December

Next Update Sunday (I'm on strike)

Quick Overview

• (WSJ) Greece set off the crisis rattling the euro zone. Spain could determine whether the 16-nation currency stands or falls.
  

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 3.0% in January.
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 22,000.
  

• Germany's unemployment rate rose from 8.6% to 8.7% in February.
  

Quick Overview

• Fed's Bernanke confirms rates to be kept low

• U.S. new home sales fell 11.2% MoM -- dropping to the lowest level on record.
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications fell 8.5% last week.
  

• Japan's exports rose 41% YoY.
  

• EU industrial new orders rose 0.6% MoM and 6.3% YoY.
  

• Germany's GDP fell 2.4% in Q4.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 3.0 million barrels to 337.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 900,000 barrels.
  Supplies of heating oil rose 600,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 79.8% to 81.2%.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.3%
  Distillate demand fell 6.8%.
  

• China's copper imports rose 9% YoY.

• The Commodity Futures Trading Commission this week announced it would host a public meeting in late March to discuss speculation limits in US metal futures.
  

Quick Overview

• The Standard and Poor's/CaseShiller index of U.S. home prices fell 0.2% in December and 3.1% YoY
  
  

• The Conference Board's index of U.S consumer confidence fell from 56.5 to 46.0 -- weaker than expected.
  
  

• Germany business confidence fell from 95.8 to 95.2 in February.
  

• France’s inflation rate rose 1.2% YoY

• China may not buy the International Monetary Fund's remaining 191.3 metric tons of gold up for sale, the English-language China Daily newspaper reported Wednesday.

Quick Overview

• The London Metal Exchange has approached the Baltic Exchange to develop an electronic exchange for freight derivatives.
  

• (FT) Saudi Arabia’s oil exports to the US last year sank below 1m barrels a day for the first time in two decades just as China’s purchases climbed above that level, highlighting a shift in the geopolitics of oil from west to east
  

• The London Metal Exchange is launching derivatives contracts on cobalt and molybdenum.
  

• World cocoa demand could return to historical growth trends of between 2% and 3% in 2010, Cargill's managing director of cocoa and chocolate said Monday.

Europe's monetary union has become an instrument of deflation torture EMU is slowly suffocating boom-bust states trapped in debt deflation, acting in the same perverse and destructive fashion as the Gold Standard in the 1930s.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in January and 2.6% YoY
  

• Canada’s retail sales rose 0.4% in December
  

• Canada’s leading indicators rose 0.9%
  

• U.K.'s retail sales fell 1.8% in January, but rose 0.9% YoY.

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) The Federal Reserve Board raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent and said the move will encourage financial institutions to rely more on money markets rather than the central bank for short-term liquidity needs.

• US states face a funding gap of at least $1,000bn for public sector employees’ retirement benefits, threatening already strained budgets, according to a new study.
  
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 31,000 to 473,000 -- more than expected.
  
  

• U.S. Producer price index rose 1.4% MoM and 4.6% YoY.
  
  

• The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.3%.
  
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 15.2 to 17.6 in January
  

• Japan's composite index rose 1.4 to 97.4
  

• The International Monetary Fund said that it will start selling 191.3 tons of gold -- spread out over time.
  
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 3.1 million barrels to 334.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.4 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 79.1% to 79.8%.
  Gasoline demand fell 1.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 7.4% YoY
  
  

• Canada's consumer price rose 1.9%

• World 2009-10 sugar production is expected to fall 9.4 million metric tons short of demand, the International Sugar Organization said Thursday. The second consecutive world deficit follows a shortfall of 11.7 million tons of sugar in 2008-09

US bank lending falls at fastest rate in history
David Rosenberg from Gluskin Sheff said lending has fallen by over $100bn (£63.8bn) since January, plummeting at an annual rate of 16pc. "Since the credit crisis began, $740bn of bank credit has evaporated. This is a record 10pc decline," he said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts rose 2.8% MoM
  

• U.S. Industrial production rose 0.9% in January
  

• U.S. mortgage applications fell 2.1% last week
  

• Canada’s wholesale sales rose 0.7%
  

• Japan's index of services fell 0.9% in December
  

• A shortage of ethanol has caused Brazilian state-run energy company Petroleo Brasileiro or Petrobras, to import gasoline for the first time in 40 years.

• Several Federal Reserve policy makers want to begin selling securities relatively soon to cut back the U.S. central bank's massive help to the financial system as the economy finds a footing, the Fed said on Wednesday.

Quick Overview

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 15.92 to 24.91 in February
  

• (FT) Foreign demand for US Treasury securities recorded a record drop in December as China purged some of its holdings of government debt, the US Treasury department said
  

• Japan's GDP rose 1.1% in Q4 but fell 0 .9% YoY. The Bank of Japan said that it is committed to increasing inflation to a target level of 1.0%.
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 1.6% in December
  

• U.K. Consumer prices rose 3.5% YoY
  

• YoY Russia’s industrial production rose 7.9%
  

• World 2009-10 sugar production is expected to fall 14.8 million metric tons short of demand, sugar merchant Czarnikow said Tuesday. This is wider than the firm's November estimate of a deficit of 13.5 million tons.
  

• ICE cocoa prices are gaining on reignited supply concerns amid political turmoil in Ivory Coast, the world's top producer, Barclay's Capital says -- Ivory Coast President Gbagbo dissolved the government and postponed the national election for the seventh time.
  

• China’s iron ore imports from Australia rose 42.9 percent in 2009 to 260 million tons

• As trade in the region grows more lucrative, China has been developing port facilities in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, and it is planning to build railroad lines in Nepal. These projects, analysts say, are part of a concerted effort by Chinese leaders and companies to open and expand markets for their goods and services in a part of Asia that has lagged behind the rest of the continent in trade and economic development.
  

(FT)Shifts in commodity prices as El Niño fades
El Niño, the weather-altering Pacific warming which has hit the price of commodities from sugar to natural gas, is starting to fade and could end by June.

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in January and 4.7% YoY
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 74.4 to 73.7
  

• U.S. business sales rose 0.9% in December
  

• U.S. Inventories fell 0.2%.
  

• U.S. unemployment peaked in October and will retreat through 2011 as the economy strengthens, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
  

• EU GDP rose 0.1% in Q4
  

• EU industrial production fell 1.9% in January and 4.9% YoY
  

• China is raising reserve requirements for banks from 16.0% to 16.5%.
  

• YoY India’s industrial production rose 16.8% in December
  

• The DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.4 million barrels to 331.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.5 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 77.7% to 79.1%
  

• (Reuters) - India and China are resisting requests to sign up for the Copenhagen Accord for fighting global warming that risks unraveling without clear support from major emitters.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 43,000 last week to 440,000
  

• Australia's unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3% in January.
  

• Spain’s GDP fell 0.1% in Q4 and down 3.1% YoY.
  

• (FT) The world’s largest financial groups, including JPMorgan Chase and HSBC, are rushing to relocate top officials to focus on opportunities in the fast-growing region
  

• (FT) China's leading producer of rare earth metals has been given government approval to build a strategic reserve, exacerbating concerns that Beijing is tightening its grip on the valuable minerals.
  

• (Spiegel) In a vote that American officials are calling a "setback for US-EU counter-terror cooperation," the European Parliament on Thursday voted to reject a deal allowing US terrorism investigators access to international bank transfer information. Europe, however, sees a victory for data protection.
  

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may raise the discount rate “before long” as part of the “normalization” of Fed lending, a move that won’t signal any change in the outlook for monetary policy, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said.
  
  
  

• U.S. Exports rose $4.6 billion in December to $142.7 billion while imports rose $8.4 billion to $182.9 billion -- widening the trade gap by $3.8bn from November, to $40.2bn in December
  
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications fell 1.2%
  
  

• A Communist Party directive leaked to the Chinese-language edition of the Asia Times said dollar reserves should be limited to US Treasuries or agency mortgage debt such as Freddie Mac that enjoys Washington's implicit backing.
  
  
  

• Japan’s machinery orders rose 20.1% in December.
  
  

• U.K.’s index of industrial production rose 0.5% MoM but fell 3.6% YoY.
  
  

• Canada’s exports rose C$.5 billion in December to C$32.2 billion while imports rose C$.5 billion to C$32.4 billion.
  
  

• The massacre in Ciudad Juarez at the end of January made it clear that Mexico is losing the war on drugs. Narcotics-related violence is on the rise in other Latin American cities as well. An increasing number of voices are demanding that drugs be decriminalized.
  
  

• Arab ambassador in Dubai annuls marriage after discovering his new wife is cross-eyed, has beard.

• U.S. silver imports rose 13.5% in December from the previous month, but fell 9.3% YoY

Germany backs Greek bail-out as EU creates 'economic government'
The breakthrough comes as this week's summit of EU leaders in Brussels rapidly evolves from a policy workshop into an historic gathering that may catapult the EU across the Rubicon towards fiscal federalism and a de facto debt union. The EU's top brass are seizing on the crisis to push for a radical extension of EU powers, saying Greece has exposed the deep flaws in the structure of monetary union.

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) - European governments have agreed in principle to help heavily indebted Greece, a senior German coalition source said on Tuesday, in what would be the first rescue of a euro zone member in the currency's 11-year history.
• Billionaire investor George Soros said he is confident Greece will “do whatever is necessary” to remain a member of the Euro.

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.8% MoM and 5.7% YoY
  
  

• The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks for:
  Corn was reduced from 1.764 to 1.719 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were reduced from 245 to 210 million bushels.
  Wheat was increased from 976 to 981 million bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 1.140 to 1.055 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 4.3 to 3.3 million bales.
  
  
  
• The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world ending stocks for:
  Corn was reduced from 136 to 134 million tons.
  Soybeans were reduced from 59.8 to 59.7 million tons.
  Wheat was increased from 195.6 to 195.9 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 51.7 to 52.1 million bales.
  
  
• The USDA estimate of the Brazil's soybean crop was raised from 65 to 66 million tons.
  
• The USDA estimate of the Argentinean soy crop was kept at 53 million tons.
  
• The USDA reduced its estimate of the 2009-2010 Florida orange crop from 135 to 129 million boxes. Juice yield was lowered from 1.60 to 1.56 gallons per box.
  
  
• The USDA raised its estimate of 2010 beef production from 25.50 to 25.65 billion pounds.
  
• The USDA reduced its estimate of 2010 pork production from 22.6 to 22.5 billion pounds.

• U.S. soyoil production is expected to increase, thanks to a recent decision by the Environmental Protection Agency that soyoil-based biodiesel will qualify for government production mandates, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
  
  

• Brazilian ethanol mills are reaching out to chemical companies to develop plastics and other products in a bid to diversify. The mills harvest sugar cane and crush it into sugar or ethanol, but the operators are now looking to earn new revenue by sourcing ethanol as a raw material.
  
  

• The agricultural survey group of Brazil's Census Bureau, the IBGE, on Tuesday put the upcoming 2010 coffee crop at 46.8 million 60-kilogram bags. IBGE's new data is 15% above the 2009 crop.
  
  

• National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, on Tuesday pegged Brazil's 2009-10 soy crop at 66.7 million metric tons. Conab's fifth crop estimate for the record-breaking 2009-10 soy crop is 16.7% above the 2008-09 crop of 57.2 million tons

• Thailand will likely produce 6.62 million metric tons of sugar this crop year, down 7.9%, Office of Cane & Sugar Board Secretary General Prasert Tapaneeyangkul said Wednesday.

• India's federal government may ask state-run trading firms to import refined white sugar and offer them a subsidy to bridge a shortfall in the local market, a government official said

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slid and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below 10,000 for the first time since November amid concern that deteriorating European government finances will derail the economic recovery.
  

• Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange show net short positions against the Euro rising from 39,500 to 43,700 contracts.
  

• YoY Japan’s bank lending fell 1.5% in January.
  

• Kingsman increased its estimate of the 2009-2010 world sugar production deficit from 8.3 to 11.9 million tons.
  

• (FT) El Niño, the weather-altering Pacific warming which has hit the price of commodities from sugar to natural gas, is starting to fade and could end by June.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S jobless claims were up 8,000 last week to 480,000,
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.0% in December,
  

• Australia's retail sales fell 0.7% in December.
  

• Lumber is up its $10 daily limit.
  

Quick Overview

• ADP Employer Services said that the US lost 22,000 jobs in January
  

• U.S. services rose from 49.8 to 50.5 in January.
  

• US mortgage applications rose 21%

• EU retail sales volume fell 0.1% MoM and 1.0% YoY.
  

• Services in the U.K. fell from 56.8 to 54.5 in January
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.3 million barrels to 329.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 800,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 78.5% to 77.7%.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.5% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.1% YoY.

• Thailand's sugar production in the crop year to Jan. 31 rose 6.8%, but lower yields are offsetting the increased amount of cane being crushed

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors index of pending home sales rose 1.0% in December and 10.9% YoY
  

• YoY Producer prices in the EU fell 2.9%
  

• Debt-hit Greece should not be bailed out, one of the founders of Europe's euro currency has warned.
  

• China’s government, seeking to stem property speculation, told banks to raise interest rates on “third” mortgages and demand bigger down payments.
  

• China's Cotton Association estimated that cotton plantings will be down 5% this year.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Raw sugar prices probably will decline from a 29-year high this year as a “huge increase” in production driven mainly by Brazil may balance the market, according to German research company F.O. Licht.

• Global sugar production will trail demand by 8 million metric tons, more than forecast, F.O. Licht said.
  

• Swiss lawmaker compares Germany's attempts to get hold of data on cross-border tax evaders to bank robbery.
  

• Cement, coal and industrial metals producers across Asia will benefit in coming years from a massive push by India to overhaul its infrastructure, a fund manager at JPMorgan Asset Management said.
  

• Copper prices are set to plunge as speculators unwind positions and global inventories expand, according to David Threlkeld, president of metals trader Resolved Inc.

• Fortis bank estimates the cocoa stock to use ratio at 35% at the end of 2010-11.

Should Germany bail out Club Med or leave the euro altogether?
Germany faces a terrible dilemma. Either Europe's paymaster agrees to underwrite a Greek bail-out and drops its vehement opposition to a de facto EU economic government, treasury, and debt union, or the euro will start to unravel, and with it Germany's strategic investment in the post-war order.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.3% in December. YoY personal incomes fell 1.4%, the biggest decline since 1938.
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.2%.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index rose from 54.9 to 58.4
  

• U.S. Construction spending fell 1.2% MoM. YoY construction spending fell 12.4%
  

• Manufacturing in Australia rose from 48.5 to 51.0 in January
  

• Manufacturing in the U.K. rose from 54.6 to 56.7 in January.
  

• Manufacturing in the EU rose from 51.6 to 52.4 in January
  

• Russia's GDP fell 7.9% in 2009
  

• Global demand for sugar will exceed supply by 13.5 million tons this season, according to broker Czarnikow Group Ltd.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Soybean fungi are spreading across Brazil and Argentina, the world’s second- and third-largest producers, threatening record crops.
  

• The USDA said U.S. cattle inventory fell 0.9% YoY

• Australia surprised markets with the decision to leave its rates unchanged at 3.75%.
  

• Shell plans $1.63B investment in Brazilian ethanol.

• Daily charts of interest:
  BDI, Capesize, Dollar P&F, Soy P&F, S&P Cycle, S&P Vxo Ratio, Las Vegas RE, Crude.

• Weekly charts of interest:
  World Copper stocks, NY weekly adv. Issues.

• Monthly charts of interest:
  World Markets with 6 month average above 24 month average, Chile, Argentina, Sri Lanka, RE CPI adj.