Quick Overview

• (FT)China’s soaring appetites for commodities have created some of the worst traffic jams seen at ports handling bulk cargo. Ships were queuing for an average of 27½ days to collect coal in Queensland, Australia.
  

• The Drewry Global Freight Rate Index (container shipping rates) rose 3 % YoY to November 2009.
  

• Last week’s charts of interest:
  Capsize held support and broke the downtrend.
  Supramax is making a new high for the move.
• Cocoa
• Australian Dollar
• Orange Juice
• T-Bond Rates

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer price index rose 0.1% MoM and 2.7% YoY
  

• U.S. industrial production rose 0.6%
  

• The NY Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing rose from 4.50 to 15.92 in January
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the EU rose 1.4% in December

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 72.5 to 72.8

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims rose 11,000 last week to 444,000 -- more than expected.
  

• U.S. retail sales fell 0.3% in December.
  

• US inventories rose 0.4% in November -- more than expected.
  

• Australia's unemployment rate fell from 5.7% to 5.5% in December
  

• EU industrial production rose 0.9% in November, but fell 6.4% YoY
  

• Japan’s machinery orders fell 11.3% in November -- weaker than expected.
  

• (Bloomberg) India surpassed China as the world’s biggest buyer of palm oil as rising incomes increased demand for fried and processed foods and drought reduced domestic cooking oil production, according to a processor group.

• Intel's net income totaled 40 cents a share, in the three months ended December -- beating expectations for 30 cents.

• 
  

Quick Overview

• The Fed’s Beige Book said ten Districts reported some increased activity and improvement in conditions.
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications rose 14%.
  

• U.K. Manufacturing was unchanged in November and down 5.4% YoY
  

• YoY Germany's GDP fell 5.0%
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 3.7 million barrels to 331.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.8 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 79.9% to 81.3% of capacity last week
  Gasoline rose 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 4.0% YoY
  

• India imported 343 tons of gold in 09, down from 420 tons in 08

• Germany's fourth-quarter 2009 cocoa grind rose 9.4 YoY to 95,834 tonnes, the association of German Confectionary Producers said.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. exports rose 0.9% in November while imports rose 2.6%
  

• Canada’s exports rose 1.1% while imports rose 3.9%
  

• China raised bank reserve requirements by 0.5%.

• India's economic growth in 2009/10 is expected to be 7.0 to 7.5%, the prime minister's economic advisor said.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 1.675 to 1.764 billion bushels.Yields were the culprit, coming in at 165.2 bu/acre, from 162.9 bu/acre last month and 0.7 bu/acre above the highest trade estimate.
  Soybeans were reduced from 255 to 245 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 900 to 976 million bushels.
  Sugar was raised from 1.016 to 1.140 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 4.50 to 4.30 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 132 to 136 million tons.
  Soybeans were raised from 57 to 60 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 191 to 196 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered to 51.7 million bales.
  
  

• Orange crop was kept unchanged at 135 million boxes, but the juice yield was lowered from 1.63 to 1.60 gallons per box -- the government report was compiled before the freezing weather struck.
  
  
  
• The USDA reduced its 2010 estimate of beef production 2% from 2009.

• (Reuters) Dry bulk ship owners are insisting vessels go via the Cape of Good Hope on voyages from South Africa to Mediterranean ports to avoid pirates in the Gulf of Aden - adding 10 days to shipping times. Utilities in Italy, Greece and Israel which use coal shipped from Indonesia and South Africa are having to pay higher shipping costs for the longer voyages, utility sources said. Around 60 percent of South Africa's 60 million tonnes a year of coal exports goes to Europe.

• A White House plan to slap a fee on U.S. banks to cover the cost of the $700 billion bailout was met with the expected skepticism by bank lobbyists.

• Pakistan will scrap taxes on the import of 700,000 tonnes of white sugar through the private sector to meet shortages and keep prices in check, Ministry of Industries officials said on Wednesday.

• The Philippines is planning to import up to 150,000 tons of refined sugar to cover increasing demand amid a shortfall in domestic production, a regulatory official said Wednesday.
  

America slides deeper into depression as Wall Street revels
Realtytrac says defaults and repossessions have been running at over 300,000 a month since February. One million American families lost their homes in the fourth quarter. Moody's Economy.com expects another 2.4m homes to go this year. Taken together, this looks awfully like Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath.

Quick Overview

• World 2009-10 coffee production is expected to fall to 123.7 million (60-kilogram) bags, the International Coffee Organization said Monday.
  

• Brazil's orange juice exporters' association, Citrus Br, said it expected the next harvest to turn out between 300 million and 315 million 40.8-kg boxes in Sao Paulo state. This year's harvest will soon finish and has been estimated at 358.4 million boxes by the state's agriculture authorities.
  

• AccuWeather said crop losses in Florida's citrus groves could reach 10%.
  

• The Philippines may import up to 50,000 tonnes of raw sugar to rein in rising domestic prices but officials said on Monday there was enough supply to meet an increase in demand

Quick Overview

• Chinas exports rose17.7 % YoY, the first increase in 14 months, increasing the likelihood that t Beijing will restart the appreciation of the renminbi.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Paul Krugman said he sees about a one-third chance the U.S. economy will slide into a recession during the second half of the year as fiscal and monetary stimulus fade.
  

• Hank Greenberg blamed new standards for credit-default swaps -- pushed by Goldman or Deutsche Bank AG, he said -- and subprime, housing-backed derivatives sold and then shorted by Goldman as contributing to AIG’s collapse, the newspaper reported.
  

• Soft drinks manufacturers are more and more returning to sugar given the poor health image of high fructose corn syrup.
  

• Growers of sugarcane crop in southern Louisiana could continue to suffer losses the next couple of nights as a hard freeze develops. This is not welcome news after record rainfall in the fall and December deluged the fields and set the harvest behind schedule.
  

• The Parrot, my advisor, anticipates the next S&P cycle low on Feb 1.
  

• Some notable new highs (for the move) last week:
  Coal
  London Zink, Tin, and Lead “Inventories”
  Shanghai Zink “Inventory”
  World copper “Inventories”
  Palladium, Platinum, Copper
  London: aluminum, copper, lead, tin, zinc
  Unleaded
  NY Volume advance decline line
  NY advance decline line
  Orange Juice
  Dow Industrial, Transport, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Nikkei.
  Argentina, Chile, Mexico.
  Sea
  Euro Dollar (Interest Rates)
  Sugar
  Rate of inflation
  
  Some notable new lows (for the move) last week:
  Vxo
  NY weekly advancing issues
  Gilts
  Commercial loans
  Slovakia
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• US Non-farm payroll fell 85K in December –more than expected
  

• U.S. Unemployment stays at 10%
  

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 3.3% in November -- stronger than expected.
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate unchanged at 8.5%
  

• EU unemployment up from 9.8% to 10.0%, the highest since the currency began in 1999.

• EU GDP rose 0.3% in Q3, but fell 4.3% YoY
  

• The Independent is carrying the headline “Ice Land” as Europe, China and the US braced for more snow and below-freezing overnight temperatures, tightening supplies of coal and electricity
  

• Weather.com says temperatures in central Florida will be below freezing one more time tomorrow morning.
• WXRISK.COM says: If the wind drops off overnight on the morning of the 11th is going to be a serious hard freeze across a large portion of central and southern Florida over interior sections. If the winds stay up a little bit overnight the hard freeze will be probably more like a frost.

• The Port of New Orleans bucked the worst economic slowdown in 70 years because its business of providing warehouse space for the London Metal Exchange (LME) expanded rapidly over the last two years, Reuters reported.

• Swiss court ruled that a Swiss financial regulatory order that forced UBS AG hand over account data on several hundred clients was "unlawful," opening up the possibility of clients seeking damages from Switzerland and reigniting the debate surrounding banking secrecy.

Quick Overview

• Shares of General Electric (NYSE: GE) have rallied sharply on apparently no news-- volume has spiked higher.
  

• The EPA today proposed significantly tougher smog standards after reconsidering the Bush administration's controversial 2008 regulations.
  
  
• Japan's new Finance Minister Naoto Kan favors a weaker yen.
  
  

• China raised the yield on three-month bills from 1.33% to 1.37%, the first increase in five months.
  

• MoM EU retail sales fell 0.8% and 2.1% YoY.
  
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 1.4% MoM
  
  

• Brazil's expects its coffee crop to total 46.7 million bags in 2010. The USDA estimated Brazil's 2009 coffee crop at 43.5 million bags.
  

• "We had isolated pockets across the citrus belt of damage--frozen fruit and twig and leaf damage--again, not catastrophic but we did suffer some damage," said Andrew Meadows, spokesman for Florida Citrus Mutual, the state's largest grower representative.
  Another strong cold front is expected to make its way to Florida by Friday, putting the citrus belt back in the danger zone through the weekend. Lows in the 20s and low 30s are expected to be seen Saturday night and Sunday morning.

• Winterkill Threat Through End of Week in 1/4 of Plains Wheat Belt

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Managements' index of services rose from 48.7 to 50.1 in December.
  

• As of Jan 1st Russia barred poultry imports from the U.S. -- they object to the use of chlorine in processing.

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.3 million barrels last week to 327.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose up 3.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.3 million barrels
  Refinery use fell from 80.3% to 79.9% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 1.0% YoY.
  

• EU industrial new orders fell 1.6% MoM and down 14.1% YoY.
  

• Services in the U.K. rose from 56.6 to 56.8 in December.
  

• YoY Brazil’s ethanol exports in December fell to 124.3 million liters from 348.5 million liters.
  

• Brazil’s soybean exports fell to 203,100 metric tons in December 2009 from 750,400 tons in December 2008
  

• The NYSE Volume advance decline appears to follow the NYSE advance decline to new high.
  

• The Nikkei is making a new high for the move.
  

• Unleaded Gas is making a new high for the move.
  

• DB Commodity Index is making a new high for the move.
  

• Platinum is following Palladium to new highs.
  

• (FT) The US slapped additional duties of 43 to 289 per cent on imports of more than $300m worth of a steel product from China, the US Commerce Department said
  

• (WJ) China took over the mantle of the world's top merchandise exporter from Germany in 2009.
  

• Rain has freed some areas of Argentina from drought, but left others with "severe flooding", Oil World says, warning of a disease threat in Brazil -- the crop is jeopardized by the Asian rust fungus which has spread at an alarming rate..

• Informa Economics raised its estimated 2009 corn production in China and Argentina. The firm pegged China's corn crop at 160 million metric tons, up 5 million tons from its December estimate. Argentina's 2009 production was pegged at 15.5 million metric tons, up 2.5 million tons from the previous month.

• New high for Euro Dollar (Interest rates)

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.1% in November, better than expected.
  

• The National Association of Realtors said pending home sales fell 16% in November, but up 15.5% YoY
  

• Temperatures in central Florida dipped below 30 degrees this morning and forecasters expect one more cold morning on Saturday -- OJ closed limit up

• YoY Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 0.9% in December
  

• New home sales in Australia rose 0.3% in November.
  

• Indonesia's plan to buy 500,000 metric tons of sugar for delivery between Jan. 1 and April 15 failed Tuesday because there were too few offers, traders said. There are also expectations for strong demand from Russia, a leading importer of raws, and the United States.
  

• Mexico’s corn imports will jump 28% in 2009-10 because of a drought which "created huge problems" for farmers, US officials say.
  
  
  The coal price at Qinghuangdao Port rose for four consecutive months, and set a new record high over the past year, meanwhile, coal inventory fell 29.4% from early December, approaching the alarm point of 5 mln tons again. (Beijing faced the coldest weather in half a century)
  

• Britain shivers during what could be its coldest winter in a century.
  

• Integrating Skype in High-definition TVs from LG and Panasonic will enable users to conduct free live video chats from their couches.
  
  

Global bear rally will deflate as Japan leads world in sovereign bond crisis
By mid to late 2010, we will have lanced the biggest boils of the global system.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management index of U.S. manufacturing rose from 53.6 to 55.9 in December -- better than expected, and the highest level in more than three years.
  

• (FT)The US public pension system faces a higher-than-expected shortfall of more than $2,000bn
  

• U.S. Construction spending fell 0.6% from October's pace. In the first eleven months of 2009, construction spending is down 12.7% YoY.
  

• Chinas manufacturing index rose from 55.7 to 56.1 in December, the highest in five years.
  

• Australia’s manufacturing index fell from 51.2 to 48.5 in December.
  

• Weather forecasters say that temperatures in central Florida have a chance to go below freezing on four out of five nights this week.
  

• Maersk hired a warship to protec the Brigit Maersk tanker from pirates.
  

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize- winning economist and Columbia University professor, said economists are among those at fault for the financial crisis, which exposed “major flaws” in prevailing ideas. The now-flawed premises include the ideas that economic participants behave rationally and that financial markets are competitive and efficient, Stiglitz said.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank’s low interest rates didn’t cause the past decade’s housing bubble and that better regulation would have been more effective in limiting the boom.

• The S&P rose 23.5% in 09, the biggest yearly gain since 2003. Since the March lows, the S&P rose about 65%.
  

• China appears to have overtaken India as the number one private gold buyer in 09.
  

• Corn world ending stocks are projected near 4 decade lows at 17% of usage. This despite a record U.S. yield in 2009/10
  

• The cocoa market is heading into its fourth consecutive year of shortfalls – the longest run of shortages since 1965-69 -- This may rekindle the cocoa fat substitute argument.
  

• Czarnikow recently forecast the 2009-10 sugar deficit at 13.5m tonnes, following a deficit of 15.8m tonnes in 2008-09 -- Brazilian Ethanol is becoming less competitive.
  

• In spite of the Dollar's rally since December, the doomsayers are still out in force.
  

• Bad weather has driven orange juice 90% higher last year. The per capita OJ consumption is 1/20th of bottled water and soft drinks.
  

• Companies such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will now have to put up the same amount of capital to hedge against their own business risks as they would to hedge against risks for their customers. The CFTC’s regulations aim to ensure that firms have the financial backing for the risks they are taking in the market -- It’s about time!!
  

• 12/27/09 China announced new regulations to increase the use of renewable energy such as wind and hydropower by forcing electricity grid operators to prioritize their use, in an effort by the world's top greenhouse-gas emitter to reduce its reliance on coal. The amendment will force state-owned electric grid companies, which are responsible for distributing electricity from power plants, to buy all the electricity generated from renewable sources even when it is more expensive and more complicated to use than electricity from coal-fired plants -- Coal is not impressed.
  

• After falling a record 92% last year, the Baltic Dry Index posted its best-ever annual advance since it started in 1985. The index advanced 288% in 1999, exceeding its previous record of 174% in 2003.
  

• Last Friday, China and the 10-country Association of South East Asian Nations launched the final stage of the world’s biggest regional trade agreement, measured by population.
  

• As of Jan 1st Ireland has a new law, which passed in July, means that blasphemy in Ireland is now a crime punishable with a fine of up to €25,000. It defines blasphemy as "publishing or uttering matter that is grossly abusive or insulting in relation to matters sacred by any religion, thereby intentionally causing outrage among a substantial number of adherents of that religion".
  

• A year-end plea for $900000 yielded $2.4 million for the Lake Forest mega-church led by Rick Warren.
  
  

Happy Holidays!
(Updates resume Jan. 3)

Scramble for the Atmosphere (Monbiot)
..the barrister Polly Higgins laid out a different approach. Her declaration of planetary rights invests ecosystems with similar legal safeguards to those won by humans after the second world war(2). It changes the legal relationship between humans, the atmosphere and the biosphere from ownership to stewardship. It creates a global framework for negotiation which gives nation states less discretion to dispose of ecosystems and the people who depend on them.

Quick Overview

• Japan kept interests rate unchanged at 0.1%.
  
  

• Canada's wholesale sales rose 0.3% in October
  
  

• Global cocoa production for 2009-10 is expected to fall 63,000 tons short of demand, which would be the fourth consecutive year of deficits and wider than a previous forecast of 56,000 tons, BNP Paribas said.

Quick Overview

• US attempts to break the deadlock at the UN conference in Copenhagen by backing an offer from developed countries to provide poorer nations with $100bn per year by 2020 to fight climate change
  

• Standard and Poor's cut Greece's credit rating from A- to BBB+.
  

• YoY Canada’s consumer prices rose 1.0%
  

• U.K.'s retail sales fell 0.3% in November.
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 7,000 last week to 480,000.
  

• As of last week 2009-2010 U.S. export inspections of:
  Corn are up 5% YoY.
  Soybeans are up 40% YoY.
  Wheat improved from down 31% to down 30% YoY.
  Cotton is down 37% YoY.
  

• India's sugar production in the first two months of the marketing year that began Oct. 1 fell 9.6% YoY due to lower recovery from cane.

Quick Overview

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged and said that it expects economic conditions to warrant “exceptionally low” rates for an “extended” period.
  
  
• The EU Wednesday settled its remaining antitrust issues with Microsoft.
  
  

• The U.S. Federal Trade Commission sued Intel for illegally using its dominant market position for a decade “to stifle competition and strengthen its monopoly.”
  
  

• MoM U.S. housing starts rose 8.9%. YoY November housing starts were down 7.3%.
  
  

• MoM the U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in November, 1.8% YoY
  

• Australia's GDP rose 0.5% YoY
  

• Canada manufacturing sales rose 2.0% in October
  

• EU consumer prices rose 1.0% YoY
  

• Japan's tertiary index rose 0.5%
  

• Norway raised its interest rate to 1.75%
  

• U.K. Unemployment rose to 7.9% from 7.8%
  

• Brazil harvested 39.5 million bags of coffee this year, up from a September estimate of 39.0 million bags
  

• Brazil estimates 2009-2010 production of 34.6 million tons of sugar and 25.8 billion liters of ethanol from 612 million tons of cane.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.7 million barrels to 332.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 900,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 2.3 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 81.1% to 80.0%
  Gasoline demand rose 1.0% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 6.6% YoY

• India's production of monsoon-sown rice may total 71.65 million metric tons, up from 69.45 million tons estimated last month, the farm ministry said.

• Cocoa’s trading at the highest level in 32 years amid concerns that the market will experience a supply shortfall for a fourth successive season in 2009-10.

Regulators Resist Volcker Wandering Warning of Too-Big-to-Fail
(Bloomberg) -- Paul A. Volcker visited nine cities in five countries in the past eight weeks to warn that bankers and regulators “have not come anywhere close to responding with necessary vigor” to the worst economic crisis in 70 years.
.. He told executives there that the changes they’ve proposed are “like a dimple.”

Quick Overview

• YoY U.S. producer prices rose 2.4% in November
  

• The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to 2.6 from 23.5 in November
  

• The Federal Reserve meets today and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.125%.

• (FT) China has banned individuals from registering internet domain names and launched a review of millions of existing personal websites in the toughest government censorship drive so far on the internet

• Czarnikow in late November forecast a 2009/10 global sugar deficit of 13.5 million tonnes, versus a deficit of 15.8 million tonnes in 2008/09.
• The China Sugar Association has estimated that sugar output for the 2009-10 crop year, starting Oct. 1, will fall to 12 million tons from the previous year's 12.43 million tons.
  

Quick Overview

• White House advisor Lawrence Summers expects the economy to start adding new jobs in the spring of 2010.
  

• Industrial production in the EU fell 0.7% in October and down 10.2% YoY

• YoY Chinas M2 money supply rose 29.7%
  

• Employment in the EU fell 0 .5% in Q3 and down 2.0% YoY
  

• Sugar crushing in Brazil's centre-south cane hub in the second half of November totalled 25.4 million tonnes, down 16 % YoY, according to the Sugar Cane Industry Association, Unica. The fall was due to the impact of persistent wet weather.
• Brazil said its sugar production in 2009-10 was likely to drop to 34m tonnes, down from an official forecast of 36.7m tonnes in September.

• Cocoa traders are concerned about production shortfalls in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for 56% of the world’s cocoa output.
  
  
  

• Goldmans top man said the firm wasn't just trying to make money; it was doing "God's work." No kidding!

Greece defies Europe as EMU crisis turns deadly serious
Mr Papandreou has good reason to throw the gauntlet at Europe's feet. Greece is being told to adopt an IMF-style austerity package, without the devaluation so central to IMF plans. The prescription is ruinous and patently self-defeating. Public debt is already 113pc of GDP. The Commission says it will reach 125pc by late 2010. It may top 140pc by 2012.

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 1.3% in November.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 67.4 to 73.4
  

• YOY India’s industrial production rose 10.3%
  

• YoY U.K. producer prices rose 2.9%.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims rose 17,000 to 474,000.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 1.625 to 1.675 billion bushels.
  Some 12% of the crop is still sitting in the snow!
  Soybeans were reduced from 270 to 255 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 885 to 900 million bushels.
  Sugar was kept at 1.016 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 4.90 to 4.50 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was kept at 132 million tons.
  Soybeans were kept at 57 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 188 to 191 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 54 to 52 million tons.
  

• OJ was lowered from 136 to 135 million boxes.

• Unica pegged Brazil's center-south sugarcane crush at 538.2 million tons for the 2009-10 crop compared to its previous estimate of 529.5 million tons

• Uttar Pradesh is asking the central government to lift its restriction on raw sugar from Brazil amid severe shortages and rising prices.

• YoY China’s factory output rose 19.2 %

Nuremberg Revisited: Obama Administration Files To Dismiss Case Against John Yoo
If successful in this case, the Obama Administration will succeed in returning the world to the rules leading to the war crimes at Nuremberg. Quite a legacy for the world’s newest Nobel Peace Prize winner.

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) China, the world’s largest steel consumer, will impose provisional duties on some U.S. and Russian imports following anti-dumping and subsidy investigations, escalating a trade spat started in September.

• The U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications rose 8.5% last week
  

• U.S. wholesales rose 1.2% in October
  

• U.S. Inventories rose 0.3%.
  

• Japan’s GDP rose 0.3% in the third quarter, but fell5.1% YoY
• 
  

• Greece's new socialist government promised Wednesday to step up efforts to reduce the growing deficit after a ratings agency downgraded the country's debt rating.

• London bankers reacted with fury to UK government plans to levy a 50% super tax on banks’ bonus payouts.
  

• Spain has its credit outlook cut to negative from stable by the ratings agency Standard & Poor's, rattling European markets.

• MoM Japanese core machinery orders fell 4.5% in October

• Australian employers added 31,200 workers in November
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.8 million barrels to 336.1 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies fell 700,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 79.7% to 81.1% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 1.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 8.3% YoY
  

• Sugar output in Brazil’s Center South is estimated at 28.9 million metric tons, down from November’s projection of 29.3 million tons.
  

• With roughly 12% of the U.S. corn crop still in the field, some are concerned that crop could lodge, or fall down, due to the snow and winds approaching 50 miles per hour.

No update today

Quick Overview

• (FT) Commodity markets remained under pressure as risk appetite weakened amid concerns about the sustainability of global economic recovery
  

Quick Overview

• German factory orders fell 2.1% in October
  
  

• World Bank: The number of malnourished as a percentage of the developing world's population has also started to rise again. After falling from 20 percent in 1990-92 to just under 16 percent in 2003-05, it now stands at almost 18 percent. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization says a long-running decline in farm investment is the main culprit behind food shortages and estimates $44 billion in new investment is needed annually to boost agriculture in developing countries.
  
  

• NY ADL new high
  

• Indonesia may import 500,000 metric tons of white sugar starting in December to meet an expected domestic supply shortfall in 2010
  
  

• (Reuters) - Big, full-service brokerages have lost a significant chunk of business to online firms that told small investors they are better off making their own decisions

• (Bloomberg)... Coffee lowers the risk of Type 2 diabetes by increasing the body’s ability to use
  insulin to convert blood sugar to energy, previous research has shown. ...
  
  

It's a return to the Star Chamber as Europe finally tramples Magna Carta into the dust If you have a spare evening, read the Magna Carta

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate improved from 10.2% to 10.0%
  

• U.S. Factory orders rose 0.6% in October.
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 8.6% to 8.5% in November

• Cocoa futures in London rose the highest level in almost 25 years following market talk of a small crop in Ghana.

• YoY Food inflation in India rose by over 17%

• World Copper (exchanges) inventory making new high.
  

• SLV (Silver ETF) Ounces of Silver in Trust up by 2.84% in 1 week.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. 30-year mortgages fell to new all-time low of 4.71%
  

• U.S. jobless claims were down 5,000 last week at 457,000

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services fell from 50.6 to 48.7 in November
  

• U.S. non-farm productivity rose 4.0%
  

• U.S. labor costs fell 1.4%.
  

• EU GDP rose 0.3% in Q3
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 0.3%
  

China Grain Output May Drop 37% on Climate Change (Update1
..Research shows that for every degree warmer the atmosphere becomes the key growing period for rice to develop properly will be shortened by an average of 7-8 days and by 17 days for the winter wheat crop, Zheng said. “Yield and quality will drop accordingly,” he said.

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- The global economy will expand 4.4 percent in 2010 and 4.5 percent the following year as the world recovers from the credit crisis, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
  

• ADP Employer Services said that there was a loss of 169,000 private jobs in November
  

• The Fed said today in its Beige Book business survey: economy is improving; consumer spending is moderately higher; commercial real estate is deteriorating; home sales are up; labor market is weak.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.1 million barrels to 339.9 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 4.0 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 80.3% to 79.7%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.7% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 7.7% YoY.
  

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing fell from 55.7 to 53.6 in November
  
  

• The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose 3.7% MoM. YoY the index is up 32%.
  

• U.S. construction output rose 1.6% YoY.
  
  

• MoM U.S. retail sales rose 5.2%. YoY retail sales rose 2.6%.
  

• EU unemployment was unchanged at 9.8% in October.
  

• The Bank of Japan decided at an unscheduled policy meeting to offer up to Y10,000bn in three-month low-interest loans to commercial banks.
  

• DryShips Inc., a provider of marine transportation services for drybulk cargoes, announced that its previously announced agreement to acquire 2 Panamax vessels has been terminated since no period employment could be secured in the agreed timeframe
  

• From January to October China's iron ore import rose 36.8 %. In the same phase, domestic iron ore output reached about 702.66 million tons, up 36.04 million tons.
  

• North Korea has revalued its currency by a factor of 100, causing chaos on the streets of Pyongyang.

• Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 116,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2010/2011 marketing year.

• (Reuters Life!) - Reviled by the public and spurned in private, bankers have been looking for solace in adultery, according to a dating website for people seeking affairs.

• (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said Tuesday it would delay until mid-2010 a decision on whether to increase the amount of ethanol added to ordinary gasoline, putting off a controversial ruling with consequences for farm states and the oil and automobile industries.The delay was anticipated by traders.

• BNP Paribas Fortis forecasts world sugar demand to grow by 1% in 2009 versus the average rate of 2.66% a year over the past decade

• The default rate for commercial mortgages in the US climbed to a fresh 16-year high of 3.4%

• Australia's parliament rejected sweeping carbon-trade laws aimed at cutting greenhouse gases.

• Thirteen mills in India's key sugar-producing state of Uttar Pradesh have stopped cane crushing operations due to supply shortages.
  state government official said Wednesday.

Quick Overview

• The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 54.2 to 56.1 in November
  

• Lumber is up its $10 daily limit
  

• Canada’s GDP rose 0.1% in Q3, but fell 3.2% YoY
  

• Japan’s industrial production rose 0.5% in October.
  

• EU consumer prices rose 0.6% MoM

• The USDA said:
  
• 79% of the corn crop was harvested. 21% or 2.7 bln bu of corn remain in the field; including 28% of IL, 22% of MN & NE, 60% of ND, 42% of SD, 33% of WI.
  
• 96% of the soybean crop was harvested. 133 million bushels of soybeans remain in the field.

• Australia raised interest rate by 0.25%

Bundesbank fears relapse as German banks face €90bn fresh losses
The venerable bank said in its Stability Report that the world had narrowly averted a "virtually uncontrollable" collapse in the late summer of 2008. While the credit system has partly stabilised, the underlying problems "are still far from being overcome" and money markets are not yet functioning properly.

Quick Overview

• The central bank of the United Arab Emirates says it is setting up a facility to provide banks with extra liquidity. The Central bank is expected to announce it will guarantee Dubai World debt before stock markets open on Monday.
  

• The rush by retail investors into gold has forced the US government to suspend sales of the world’s most popular bullion coin, the American Eagle, after running out of inventories for the second time since August of 08.
  

• Bloomberg reported that Europe holds $87 billion of debt from the United Arab Emirates and roughly $50 billion of that is held by British banks. The Royal Bank of Scotland is said to have the biggest exposure to Dubai World, with $2.3 billion of its debt.
  

• Freight traffic on U.S. railroads reached its highest level so far this year
  

• Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.3% to 5.1% in October
  

• Vietnam devalued its currency by 5.4 % and lifted interest rates by 1% to try and choke off inflation.
  

• According to the China gold association, Chinas gold demand may be more than 450 metric tons this year, up from 395.6 tons in 2008, and output may climb to 310 tons, compared with 282 tons a year earlier.
  

• Iran’s government said it would build 10 new uranium enrichment sites and look into enriching uranium at higher grade inside the country.
  

• The US military could have captured or killed Osama bin Laden in 2001 if it had launched a concerted attack on his hideout in Afghanistan, according to a report from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

• New high for World exchange copper stocks

Updates resume Nov. 29

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP rose 0.7% in Q3, YoY GDP fell 2.5%.
  

• The Standard and Poor Case-Shiller index of home prices rose 0.3% in September.
  

• U.S. consumer confidence rose from 48.7 to 49.5
  

• Industrial new orders in the EU rose 1.7% MoM, but fell 16.4% YoY
  

• The International Sugar Organization is predicting world sugar production will exceed consumption by 0.75 million tons in 2010-2011. The 2009-2010 production deficit is forecast at 7.2 million tons.
  
  .

Quick Overview

• Spurred by a tax credits that lured first-time buyers, U.S. existing home sales rose 10.1% in October, and 23.5% YoY
  
  

• The National Association for Business Economists said that they expect U.S. GDP to be up 2.9% in 2010, up from their previous forecast of 2.6%.
  
  

• Canada’s retail sales rose 1.0% MoM

• There seems to have been a shift in attitude , from fearing a large South American soybean crop to needing one.

• Coca-Cola, the world's largest soft-drink maker, is planning to more than double its number of bottling plants in China within a decade, the Financial Times said.
  

Quick Overview

• China's sugar imports in October rose sharply to 56,882metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said Monday. Last October, the country imported 13,911 tons of sugar. In the January-October period, sugar imports rose 42% to 1.01 million tons,Customs said.
  

• China's cotton imports in October rose 23% YoY to 118,580 metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said Monday. In the January-October period, cotton imports fell 36% to 1,196,644 tons.
  

• Manila Philippines: the usual (annual) rice shortfall is around 1.5 million tons, added to that is the typhoon damage of 850,000 tons, which means our rice imports (next year) will reach around 2.35 million tons," said NFA spokesperson Rex Estoperez
  
  

• The USDA said there were 11.134 million head of cattle on feed on November 1st, up 1.5% YoY. Placements in October rose 1%., marketing’s fell 3%.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 37.0 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage on October 31st, up 71% YoY. Frozen pork supplies totaled 520 million pounds, down 1% YoY.

• (FT)Microsoft has had discussions with News Corp over a plan that would involve the media company’s being paid to “de-index” its news websites from Google, setting the scene for a search engine battle that could offer a ray of light to the newspaper industry

Quick Overview

• Growth and recovery are expected in 2010 in most world regions, but the upturn will be modest, the OECD says.
  

• U.S. jobless claims were unchanged last week at 505,000.
  

• U.S. delinquency rate on mortgage loans rose from 9.24% to a record high 9.64% Q3. The foreclosure rate rose from 4.30% to 4.47% in Q3. That makes one in seven homeowners either late on their payments or already in foreclosure.
  

• The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.3% in October.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 11.5 to 16.7 in November,
  

• Canada’s wholesale sales rose 0.2% MoM, but fell10.4% YoY
  

• Canada’s leading indicators rose 0.7% in October
  

• U.K. retail sales rose 3.0% YoY.
  

• The World Gold Council said gold demand totaled 800.3 tons in Q3, up 15% QoQ , but fell 34% YoY. YoY Mine production rose 6%.
• 
  

• The U.S. dollar will remain the world's primary reserve currency for many years or decades, an International Monetary Fund official said on Thursday.

• The early start to the rainy season this year in Brazil has heightened concerns that Asian soybean rust could vex farmers more than usual. The first incident of the disease for the 2009-10 crop year was discovered Wednesday in Mato Grosso, Brazil's No. 1 soybean producing state.

• Dylan Grice at Societe General says the price at which the dollar would be fully backed by gold (as it was at the peak in the 1970s) is $6300
  
  

• The return of the resources boom was again confirmed by the news yesterday that the value of mining and energy projects under development in Australia had jumped 40% from April to October this year.
  

• (Spiegel)Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% MoM and fell 0.2% YoY
  

• U.S. housing starts fell 10.6% MoM.
  

• YoY Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.1% in October
  

• EU construction output fell 1.1%
  

• Australia’s leading indicators rose 0.9% in September
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 900,000 barrels to 336.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 79.9% to 79.4% of capacity
  Gasoline demand fell 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 11.4% YoY
  
  .

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer price index rose 0.3% MoM, but fell 1.9% YoY
  

• U.S. Industrial production rose 0.1% in October.
  

• YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 1.5%
  

• EU exports rose 17% MoM, but fell 19% YoY

• Rumours of findings of significant fungal contamination in the US corn crop lifts the price of other livestock feeds, including soymeal and rapeseed.
  

• Argentina’s persistent drought has caused Oil World to lower their Soy production estimate by 2 MMT, now pegging 2009/10 output at 48 MMT, 5 MMT below the USDA's estimate.

If Nothing Else, Save Farming
According to farm scientists at Cornell University, cultivating one hectare of maize in the United States requires 40 litres of petrol and 75 litres of diesel(3). The amazing productivity of modern farm labour has been purchased at the cost of a dependency on oil. Unless farmers can change the way it’s grown, a permanent oil shock would price food out of the mouths of many of the world’s people. Any responsible government would be asking urgent questions about how long we have got.

Quick Overview

• The Fed is monitoring currency markets “closely” and will conduct policy in a way that will “help ensure that the dollar is strong”, Ben Bernanke said in rare comments on the US currency.
  

• U.S. retail sales rose 1.4% in October. Excluding autos sales rose 0.2%.
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 34.57 to 23.51 in November.
  

• Canada's existing home sales rose 41% in October
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 1.4% in September
  

• Japan's GDP rose 1.2% in Q3, but fell 4.5% YoY
  

• YoY EU consumer prices rose 0.5% in October
  

• (Bloomberg)The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice buyer, issued its third tender for 2010 supplies after storms damaged crops and the country accelerates imports to secure shipments amid surging prices.. “We have to secure our supplies ahead of everybody else,” Romeo Jimenez, director of the authority, said in a phone interview from Manila today. “India will also be importing rice. Prices will rise.”
  

• White sugar tenders for the expired December futures contract were 5,520 lots, with Louis Dreyfus taking delivery of all the contracts.
  

Mayfly May Thwart $3 Billion in Coal Mined in U.S. Mountaintops
Mountaintop mining in West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee and parts of Pennsylvania and Ohio accounts for 6 percent of U.S. coal production. Half of U.S. electricity comes from burning coal.