Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 10,000 to 514,000 -- the lowest in nine months.
  
  

• U.S. Consumer prices rose 0.2% MoM, but fell 1.3% YoY
  

• Consumer prices in the EU rose0.3% YoY.
  
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 18.9 to 34.6 in October
  
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 14.1 to 11.5 in October
  
  

• U.S. Foreclosure filings fell 4% MoM, but rose 29% YoY.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 400,000 barrels to 337.8 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 5.2 million barrels
  Supplies 0f heating oil fell 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 85.0% to 80.9%.
  Gasoline demand rose 5.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 10.8% Yoy.

• North American cocoa bean grindings in the third quarter totaled 118,405metric tons, down 586 tons, or 0.49%, from the same period last year, theNational Confectioners Association said Thursday.

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales fell 1.5% in September. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.5%, better than expected.
  

• U.K. unemployment rate remained at 7.9%
  

• EU industrial production rose 0.6% in August, but fell 13.5% YoY.
  

• Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.1%
  

• JP Morgan earned $3.6 billion in Q3 -- better than expected.
  

• Intel expects a strong fourth quarter.
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 6.8% YoY.

• China's major ports handled 4.5 billion tons of cargo between January and August, an increase of 4.9 % compared to the same period last year.
  

• World sugar output is forecast to increase to 156.9 million tonnes in 2009/10 from 150.0 million in 2008/09, German analyst F.O. Licht said in its first forecast for sugar production in the new crop year. "As sugarcane needs 12 to 18 months to mature, the cane that has been planted in response to this year's price surge will only be ready for harvesting for the 2010/11 crush." F.O. Licht said.
  

• Europe's cocoa grind fell 1.5% YoY to 343,471 tonnes in Q3 of 2009, the European Cocoa Association said on Wednesday.

• Concerns about supplies in both Asia and the U.S. havesent CBOT rice to its highest price in nine months

Updates resume Oct. 14

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade gap narrowed in August to $30.7 billion, down 3.6 percent from a revised estimate of $31.9 billion for July
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 8.7% to 8.4% in September
  

• Japan's machinery orders rose 0.5% in August
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 1.635 to 1.672 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were raised from 220 to 230 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 743 to 864 million bushels.
  Sugar was lowered from 844,000 to 836,000 tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 5.6 to 5.4 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was lowered from 139 to 136 million tons.
  Soybeans were raised from 51 to 55 million tons.
  Wheat unchanged at 187 million tons.
  Cotton unchanged at 56 million tons.
  
  
  

• The USDA estimates the Florida's 2009-2010 orange crop at 136 million boxes, down 16% YoY
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 33,000 last week to 521,000,
  

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 1.0% MoM, but fell 17.7% YoY
  

• U.S. Inventories fell 1.3% MoM and fell 14.7% YoY
  

• The Bank of England and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged,.

• European cocoa bean grindings in Q3 totaled 406,080 metric tons, up 16.5% YoY

Quick Overview

• Australias jobless rate fell to 5.7% from 5.8%

• U.S mortgage applications rose 16%.
  

• GDP in the EU fell 0.3% QoQ and down 4.9% YoY
  

• Japan's coincident index rose from 89.8 to 91.4 in August
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 1 million barrels to 337.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 400,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 84.6% to 85.0%
  Gasoline demand rose 6.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.5% YoY.
  

• German cocoa grind rose 11% QoQ

• Conab, the Brazilian version of the USDA, estimates the upcoming bean crop at 62.3-63.3 million tonnes versus 57.1 million last year. They put the corn crop at 50.9-52.2 million tonnes vs 51 million last year. Conab's wheat guess is 5.25 million tonnes versus their September guess of 5.85 million.

• (Bloomberg) Sugar deliveries from Brazil may face delays next year after above-average rains pared cane yields and slowed the harvest, producer Grupo Jose Pessoa SA said. Deliveries originally scheduled for the first half of 2010 may be delayed until later in the year or the first half of 2011.

Quick Overview

• U.K. manufacturing output fell 1.9% in August.

• Arctic air flow may enter IA on Thurs with 3 or 4 nights of frost. Hard freeze (28F) possible Friday night over much of the state. Elvin

Quick Overview

• Australia raised interest rates by 0.25% to 3.25%

• The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses, rose to 50.9 from 48.4 in August -- higher than forecast.
  

• Retail sales in the EU fell 0.3% MoM and 1.8% YoY.
  

• EU manufacturing and services rose from 50.4 to 51.1.
  

• Services in the U.K. rose from 54.1 to 55.3 in September.
  

• FCStone to raise its estimate for a global sugar shortfall in the year ended September to 8 million tons, from 6.1 million tons previously.
  

• Roubini thinks that the piles of money being printed are leading to asset bubbles in stocks and commodities
  

• Norway is rated the best place in the world to live

• (Arlan Suderman) Commodity Weather Group raises risk of hard freeze for NW half of Mdwst by Oct. 13 to 80%. Risk for northern Delta by 14th is 20%.

• Sugar production in India'sKarnataka state is expected to decline for a second year due to flooding

• (DJ) Soybean Rust Making Fast Late-Season Push; No Damage Foreseen

• (FT) Traders are concerned that the cocoa market could face a supply deficit for a fourth year in succession as yields from ageing cocoa trees in the Ivory Coast have been affected by disease.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.7% to 9.8% in September. Non-farm payrolls fell 263,000 – more than expected.
  

• U.S. factory orders fell 0.8% in August.
  

• Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5% in August
  

• U.K. house prices rose 0.9% in September.
  

• Canada estimates its 2009 wheat crop at 24.58 million tons, up from 23.61 million tons in July.
  

• The idle container fleet worldwide has climbed to 548 ships, totaling 1.29 million TEU capacity at the end of September. This represents 10% of the total fleet capacity, or 11.6% of the total number of containerships.

Quick Overview

• The IMF said that it expects the world economy to contract 1.1% in 2009 -- but grow 3.1% in 2010
  

• The IMF expects real GDP in the U.S. to fall2.7% in 2009, but up 1.5% in 2010.
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 17,000 last week to 551,000, more than expected.
  

• U.S. construction spending rose 0.8% MoM, but fell 11.6% YoY.
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.2%
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 1.3%
  

• Supply Management reported that its monthly index of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 52.6 in September from 52.9 in August -- surprisingly weak
  

• The National Association of Realtors said that its index of pending home U.S. sales rose 6.4% MoM and 12.4% YoY
  

• Unemployment in the EU rose from 9.0% to 9.1% MoM
  

• YoY Japan's retail sales fell 1.8% in August
  

• Manufacturing in Australia rose from 51.7 to 52.0 MoM
  

• Manufacturing in India rose from 53.2 to 55.0 MoM
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell 0.2% QoQ and down 3.8% YoY.
  
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell from 50.0 to 46.1
  

• ADP said the U.S. lost 254,000 private-sector jobs in September

• Canada’s GDP was unchanged in July and down 4.6% YoY
  

• Industrial output in Japan rose 1.8% in August
  

• Germany's unemployment rate improved from 8.3% to 8.2% in September.
  
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 0.9% in August,
  
  

• The USDA estimated U.S. soybean stocks at 138 million bushels, vs. 111 million expected.
  
  

• The USDA pegged U.S. corn stocks at 1.674 billion bushels vs. 1.719 billion expected
  
  

• The USDA estimates wheat stocks at 2.215 billion bushels compared to the average analyst’s estimate of 2.132 billion bushels.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels last week to 338.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.6 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 400,000 barrels
  Refinery use fell from 85.6% to 84.6%
  Gasoline demand rose 5.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.2% YoY.
  
  

• Barclays Capital expects world Sugar use to outpace production by 8.1 million tons in 2009-2010

• (Bloomberg) -- India’s monsoon rainfall, the main source of irrigation for the country’s 235 million farmers, is the weakest in more than three decades, threatening farm output in the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugar

• Yum Brands Inc.'s (YUM) board approved an 11% dividend increase andauthorized $300 million of share repurchase.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The S&P & Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices rose 1.6% in July and fell 13.3% YoY
  
  

• U.S. consumer confidence fell from 54.5 to 53.1 in September
  
  

• U.K. GDP fell 0.6% in the second quarter and down 5.5% YoY
  
  

• Consumer confidence in Canada rose from 88.4 to 90.9 in September

• (Bloomberg) -- Cocoa production in Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest producer of the chocolate ingredient, may decline by as much as 15 percent next season

Baltic Dry to Jump on Chinese Bulk Demand, Cosco Says
(Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, the main measure of shipping costs for commodities, may surge more than 80 percent by the end of the year on increased demand for shipments to China, according China Ocean Shipping (Group) Co.

Quick Overview

• (WSJ) The White House is close to committing up to $35 billion to help housing agencies provide mortgages to low- and moderate-income families.

• Japan's consumer price index fell 2.4%, the fastest pace on record
  
  

• The USDA said there were 66.626 million head of hogs and pigs as of September 1st, down 2.3% YoY
  
  
  

• The U.S. Grains Council sees smaller Chinese corn crop than USDA due to this year's drought. Based on the survey they estimate 2009 Chinese production down 9.7% YoY

Money figures show there's trouble ahead The overwhelming fact is that private spending has slumped in the deficit countries of the Anglosphere, Club Med, and East Europe but has not risen enough in the surplus countries (East Asia and Germany) to compensate. Excess capacity remains near post-war highs across the world.

Yet hawks are already stamping feet at key central banks.

Quick Overview

• (WSJ) The G-20 is near an agreement that would require members to submit economic policies to a type of "peer review." The group also will announce that the G-20 will eclipse the G-8.
  

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 2.4% in August.
  

• U.S. home sales were at an annual rate of 429,000 in August, up 0.7% from July's pace.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 65.7 to 73.5 in September .
  

• The USDA said beef production totaled 2.18 billion pounds in August, down 4% YoY.
  

• The USDA said Pork production totaled 1.87 billion pounds in August, up 4% YoY .

• The global sugar deficit in the year starting October 1 may be 8.3 million tons, compared with a June estimate of 5.1 million tons, Switzerland-based sugar broker Kingsman SA said.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 21,000 last week to 530,000
  

• U.S. existing home sales (5.10 million units) fell 2.7% MoM.
  

• U.S. inventory of homes represents an 8.5 month supply at the current sales pace.

• India will extend authorization to import duty-free white sugar until the middle of next year to fill the supply gap.
  
  
• Brazil's center-south 2009/10 sugar output should fall 600,000 tonnes from July's estimate as excess rains have reduced expected cane yields, Job Economia analysts said Wednesday.

• Brazil's 2009-10 center-south sugar cane crush is projected at 529.5 millionmetric tons, down from an April estimate of 550 million tons, the SugarcaneIndustries Association, or Unica, said Thursday.

Quick Overview

• U.S. mortgage applications rose 12.8% last week.
  

• Industrial orders in the EU rose 1.6% MoM, but fell 24.9% YoY
  
  

• Britain's economy may be emerging from recession, but with bank lending still weak and unemployment rising "there could be false dawns," the Bank of England said
  
  

• Obama is calling on the world to end massive government subsidies that encourage the use of fossil fuels blamed for global warming.

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels to 335.6 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 5.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.5 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 86.9% to 85.6%
  Gasoline demand rose 4.5% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 8.1% YoY
  

Quick Overview

• The dollar resumed its broad sell-off, dipping under ¥91 and coming close to its fresh 12-month low versus the euro.
  

• The Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing was unchanged in September at +14
  

• U.S. single family home prices rose 0.3% in July, but fell 4.2% YoY.
  

• Canada’s retail sales fell 0.6% MoM
  

• Obama said the U.S. is determined to tackle global warming at a year-end summit.
  

• Cooler temps will build for late next weekend in the U.S. Midwest, but at this point most forecasters suggest it will not bring a crop threatening frost.
  

• Airbus forecast for world commercial aircraft sales sees a more than a doubling in demand that will require 25,000 planes at a cost of US$3.1 trillion, adding that Asian and emerging market will produce more low cost carrier demand by 2029.

Quick Overview

• U.S. index of leading indicators rose 0.6% in August
  

• The USDA said there were 9.882 million head of cattle on feed as of September 1st, down 1.2% YoY
  

• The USDA said there were 492,529 acres of commercial orange trees in Florida, down 1% YoY

Quick Overview

• Canada’s wholesale sales rose 2.8% in July to C$41.7 billion
  

• China buys another 6.7 million bushels of US soybeans. Analyst says recent frost cut 110 mln bu from China's soy crop.
  

New building cancellations to top 40% of current dry bulk orderbook says National Bank of Greece
But, new building cancellations will reach about 40% of the total orderbook sayd NBG, which means that 100 million dwt will never reach the water. This, coupled with an estimated 70 million dwt of scrapping of older tonnage, could allow for a gradual recovery of dry bulk usage, close to the ten year average of 87% of available hiring days. Should this scenario materialize, dry bulk rates will drop below 2,000 points during 2010 and recover higher than 3,000 points during 2011, which could be deemed as very satisfactory, should one consider the current imbalance in the market.

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts rose 1.5% from July's pace
  
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 12,000 last week to 545,000
  
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 4.2 to 14.1
  
  

• Construction output in the EU fell 1.1% MoM and 11.1% YoY
  
  

• Canada’s consumer prices fell 0.8% YoY
  
  

• FedEx's CEO said he sees "encouraging signs" that the recession has ended
  

• University of Illinois economists project net farm operator returns for 2009 at minus $8 per acre for corn and minus $15 per acre for soybeans, the first negative returns for the decades beginning 1990 and 2000.
  

• Maersk Line has announced a rate increases on its eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea services to west Africa of US$200 per TEU and $360 per FEU for both dry and reefer containers from October 1.

• Informa estimates 2010-11 US Winter Wheat area At 41.6M acres, down from 43.4 million in 2009-10

Kinross Says Gold Industry Faces Reserve Crisis
(Bloomberg) -- Kinross Gold Corp., Canada’s third- largest producer of the precious metal, said the gold industry is facing a crisis of declining reserves as investor demand outpaces supply.

“We may be in the midst of a perfect storm in terms of price and industry dynamics,” Tye Burt, chief executive officer of the Toronto-based company, said at a conference in Denver today. “Globally production has been in decline since the peak of 81 million ounces in 2001 to 77 million ounces last year, and we see that decline continuing long term.”

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% MoM and fell 1.5% YoY
  

• U.S . Industrial production rose 0.8% in August -- better than expected.
  

• U.S. Capacity utilization was at 69.6% -- down from 77.6% YoY.
  

• U.S. Mortgage applications fell 8.6% last week
  

• MoM the U.K. unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8%
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the EU rose 0.6% in August
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 4.7 million barrels to 332.8 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 500,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 200,000 barrels
  Refinery use fell from 87.2% to 86.9%.
  Gasoline demand rose 3.5% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 6.8% YoY

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s has probably ended, while warning that growth may not be strong enough to quickly reduce the unemployment rate.

• US retail sales rose 2.7% in August better than expected and helped by the car rebate program.
  

• U.S. producer prices rose 1.7% MoM, but fell 4.3% YoY
  

• The New York Federal Reserve’s regional index of manufacturing rose from 12.08 to 18.88 in September
  

• YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 1.6% in August
  

• Volkswagen has unveiled its answer to the recession at The Frankfurt Motor Show the L1 a 180 mile per gallon tandem two-seater hybrid car.

• Soybean/Corn futures are supported by frost threats this morning

• (FT) Central banks are set to become net buyers of gold this year for the first time since 1998, according to GFMS, the metals consultancy.

Quick Overview

• China called for talks over its trade quarrel with the U.S. in a sign the dispute may be containable.
  

• EU industrial production fell 0.2% in July and 14.7% YoY
  

• Retail sales in New Zealand fell 0.5% in July.
  

• Brazil GDP rose 1.9% QoQ
  

• The ICO’s August coffee report kept its estimate of 2008-2009 world production at 127 million bags, but raised its estimate of 2008 world consumption from 128.4 to 130.0 million bags.

A 20-year-old Styrian (Austria) was slapped with a 50 Euros fine when he farted as he talked to cops.

Lehman is a footnote in the great East-West globalisation crisis
As my colleague Jeremy Warner puts it, Lehman no more caused the economic convulsions of the last year than the assassination of an Austrian prince caused the First World War. There was the little matter of a rising Germany then, and a rising China now. Both scrambled the international system, albeit in different ways.

China Government ‘Strongly Opposes’ U.S. Tire Tariff Imposition
“By taking this unprecedented action, the Obama administration is now at odds with its own public statements about refraining from increasing tariffs,” Vic DeIorio, executive vice president of GITI Tire in the U.S., said in a statement. “This decision will cost many more American jobs than it will create.”

Quick Overview

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.5% in July
  

• U.S. Inventories fell 1.4% in July
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment rose from 65.7 to 70.2 in September
  

• YoY China's industrial Production rose 12.3%
  

• YoY India’s industrial production rose 6.8%.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was raised from 1.621 to 1.635 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were raised from 210 to 220 million bushels.
  Wheat unchanged at 743 million bushels.
  Sugar was raised from 709,000 to 844,000 tons.
  Cotton unchanged at 5.6 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was lowered from 141 to 139 million tons.
  Soybeans were raised from 50.3 to 50.5 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 184 to 187 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 57 to 56 million tons.
  

• The USDA lowered the estimate of China's 2009-2010 corn crop from 162.5 to 160.0 million tons because of draught
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

USDA Report

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 26,000 last week to 550,000 -- less than expected.
  

• U.S. exports rose $2.7 billion in July while imports rose $7.2 billion.
  

• (Reuters) - China will unswervingly apply its policy mix of massive government spending and loose money because its economic recovery remains fragile, Premier Wen Jiabao said.

• Australia's unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8% in August,
  

• Canada’s exports rose 3.3% in July while imports rose 8.3%.
  

• UK kept interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, as expected.

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 5.9 million barrels last week to 337.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 600,000 barrels.
  Refinery use was 87.2% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 2.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 5.6% YoY.
  
  
  
  
• Japan's machinery orders fell 9.3% in July

• Swine flu can infect cells deeper in the lungs than seasonal flu, making people who catch it more likely to develop serious complications, research suggests.

Quick Overview

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of U.S. mortgage applications rose 17% last week
  
  

• Canada's housing starts rose 12% in August
  
  

• Consumer confidence in the U.K. rose from 61 to 63 in August

The Great Cop-Out
… The banks only know for sure whether they have made a profit on a loan, transaction or investment when they get the capital back. That can take 30 years.”

Quick Overview

• U.K. manufacturing output rose 0.9% in July.
  

• Brazil's estimates the 2009-2010 coffee crop at 39 million bags, down from 46 million bags YoY.
  

• Gold prices hit 1000 an ounce for the first time in more than six months.

• Reuters - Switzerland knocked the United States off the position as the world's most competitive economy
  
  

Does the world have the courage to deal with its debts?

CPI inflation has dropped to –2.2pc in Japan (a modern record), -2.1pc in the US, -1.8pc in China, -1.4pc in Spain, -0.7pc in France, and -0.6pc in Germany.

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.4% to 9.7% -- the number was a little less than expected.
  

• Canada unemployment rate rose from 8.6% to 8.7% in August --better than expected.

Indian Sugar Fears Rain, Frost After Monsoon Heat
India's cane crop, which started small after years of cheap government purchase prices and withered further this summer by poor rain, faces two more hurdles that could yet trigger another flurry of imports, extending a rally that has doubled sugar prices this year to a 28-year high.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management's index of services rose from 46.4 to 48.4 in August
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 4,000 last week to 570,000
  

• Services index in the U.K. rose from 53.2 to 54.1 in August
  

• Services index in Australia rose from 44.1 to 48.0 in August
  

• Retail sales in the EU rose 0.2% in July.
  

• Purchasing Managers Index in the EU rose from 50.0 to 50.4 in August

• Informa's September guess:
• 13.010 billion bushels for corn
• 3.305 billion for beans
• corn yield of 162.6 bushels per acre
• bean yield of 43.1.
  

• In August the USDA estimated:
• corn crop at 12.761 billion with a yield of 159.5
• bean crop of 3.199 billion with a 41.7 yield.

• Weather risk says the new run of the 12z gfs weather model is suggesting a wide spread frost sept. 17,18,19 time period .

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.3%.
  

• YoY U.S. non-farm productivity rose 1.9% in Q2. The number of hours worked fell 7.2% and unit labor costs fell 1.2%.
  

• U.S. mortgage applications fell 2.2% last week.
  

• GDP in the EU fell 0.2% in Q2
  

• Producer prices in the EU fell 1.0% MoM and 8.4% YoY
  

• Australia's GDP rose 0.6%
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 400,000 barrels to 343.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 3.0 million barrels to 205.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil are unchanged..
  Refinery use rose from 84.1% to 87.2%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.5%
  Distillate demand fell 7.3%
  

• BP the U.K. energy giant said it has made a "giant" oil discovery in a deep well drilled in U.S. waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

• The shortfall in Russia's grain production due to drought is expected to amount to 13 million tons this year, Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index rose from 48.9 to 52.9 in August
  
  

• The National Association of Realtor's index of pending home sales rose 3.2% in July and 12% YoY
  
  

• U.S. construction spending fell 0.2% MoM and 10.5% YoY.
  
  

• EU unemployment -rose from 8.9% to 9.0% in July
  
  

• U.K. manufacturing fell from 50.2 to 49.7 in August

• India may remove the limit of 1 million metric tons onwhite sugar imports to improve supply

• Pakistan bought 75,000 tons of white sugar from Dubai for $638 a ton, including freight costs

Shipping Rates Seen Falling 50% on China, Fleet Size (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Just as global trade starts to recover, the shipping market is crashing for the second time in a year as China reduces raw-material imports and record numbers of new vessels set sail.

Quick Overview

• Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 43.4 to 50.0 in August
  

• (WSJ) Fed and Treasury officials are scrambling to prevent the commercial-real-estate sector from delivering a roundhouse punch to the U.S. economy as it struggles to recover.

• Japan's industrial production rose 1.9% in July
  

• Canada’s GDP rose 0.1% in June
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro area fell 0.2% in August
  

• India’s GDP rose 6.1%
  

• China will see its deficit of sugar reach 700,000 metric tons this year, the Shanghai Securities News reported. Sugar consumption in the country will reach 14 million tons this year, while supplies will be 13.2 million to 13.3 million tons, the newspaper said.

• Disney is buying Marvel Entertainment in a deal valued at $4 billion

• (Skilling) It's official!Meteorological Summer 2009 (June-August) finishes the cloudiest in 115 yrs of records: Just 53% its possible sun; normal is 67

Brazil ready to infringe US drug patents
Brazil is preparing to infringe patents on US pharmaceutical products, in retaliation against subsidies for US cotton farmers, according to the Brazilian press.
The World Trade Organisation is expected to rule on Monday that Brazil can contravene the drug patents, say the reports.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes were unchanged in July
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2%.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 66.0 to 65.7 in August
  

• Japan's unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.7% in July.
  

• Japan’s consumer prices fell 2.2% in July

• Japan’s July household spending fell -2.0% (-0.5% expected)

• U.K.'s GDP fell 0.7% in Q2 and 5.5% YoY
  

• EU consumer confidence rose from 76 to 80.6 in August.

• (Bloomberg) -- Sugar-cane output in Brazil is declining after rains this month in parts of the Center South, the world’s biggest producing region, were at their most severe in more than six decades, miller Maurilio Biagi Filho said.

Can the soufflé really rise again?

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell 0.25% in Q2 and 3.9% YoY -- better than expected.
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 10,000 last week to 570,000 -- better than expected.
  

• (WSJ) The FDIC's insurance fund fell to just $10.4 billion at the end of June, the lowest since the savings and loan crisis, as the banking industry continues to struggle with souring loans.
  

• U.K.'s business investment fell 10% in Q2 and down 18% YoY.
  

• (Farm Futures Bryce Knorr)... the latest two-week American model run shows a dramatic shift, with a major cold front working through the Dakotas and Nebraska as far south as Central Illinois Sept. 10 and 11, which could set up the season's first real frost scare.
  
  

• Shipping Co’s hiking rates:
  Unired Arab Shipping Company announced it is increasing rates from the Far East to Arabian Gulf and Indian subcontinent ports.
  Emirates shipping line has announced rate increases on cargo moving between Far East to the Middle East.
  Maersk hikes rates on full range of intra-America trades. Hapag-Lloyd hikes rates on wide range of secondary trades.
  Mitsui OSK Line is implementing a general rate increase on its Europe-South Africa trade.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 4.9% in July -- best gain in two years.
  

• U.S. new home sales rose 9.6% MoM and fell 13.4% YoY.
  

• Builders had 271,000 houses on the market last month, down 35 percent from July 2008 and the fewest since March 1993. It would take 7.5 months to sell all homes at the current sales pace, the shortest time since April 2007.
  

• YoY Japan's exports fell 36.5% in July.

• Japan’s August Small Business Confidence rose to 41.8 from 41.1 in July

• Germany’s July Import Price Index fell -0.9% MoM

• Business confidence in Germany rose from 87.5 to 90.5 in August
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 200,000 barrels to 343.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 84.0% to 84.1% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 7.9% YoY.

• Macquarie estimates Brazilian 2009-10 sugar production at 30.3 million metrictons, down from its previous expectation of between 32 million tons and 33million tons. India's 2009-10 sugar production estimate was revised down to 16million tons from the previous estimate of 17.5 million tons.

The troubling side of Ben Bernanke
Bill White, former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, said the error of the central banking fraternity over past 20 years has been to cut real interest rates ever lower to keep the game going. This has lured the world into a debt trap. The effect is to keep drawing prosperity from the future – until the future arrives.