RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets
When the finest minds in the business disagree so starkly, the rest of us can only shake our heads in confusion.

Quick Overview

• USDA Report

• The Fed kept funds rate unchanged at 0.125%

• U.S. Exports rose $2.4 billion in June while imports rose $3.5 billion. Resulting in a trade deficit of $27.0 billion.
  

• U.K.'s unemployment out at 7.8% up from 7.1%
  

• Industrial production in the EU fell 0.2% MoM and 15.6% YoY.

• The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index jumped to 58.12 this month from 39.13 in July.

• Cocoa exports from Nigeria, the world’s fourth-biggest producer of the commodity, fell 22% in June, the Lagos-based Federal Produce Inspection Service said.

• Arrivals of cocoa beans from the Ivory Coast for the first 45 weeks of the 2008-09 season, are down by 14% YoY

• MoM U.S. cocoa bean imports rose 56.3% in June, and 330.8% YoY, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
• Corn was raised from 1.550 to 1.621 billion bushels.
• Soybeans lowered from 250 to 210 million bushels.
• Wheat was raised from 706 to 743 million bushels.
• Sugar was reaised from 359,000 to 709,000 tons.
• Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
• Corn was raised from 139 to 141 million tons.
• Soybeans lowered from 52 to 50 million tons.
• Wheat was raised from 181 to 184 million tons.
• Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million bales.

• China buys another 4.2 mln bu of new-crop beans this AM

• The median price of an existing U.S. single-family home fell to $174,100, the National Association of Realtors said today. Total sales rose 3.8% QoQ and fell 2.9% YoY.

Quick Overview

• YoY U.S. non-farm productivity rose 1.8% in Q2, more than expected.
  

• U.S. business sales rose 0.4% in June
  

• U.S. inventories fell 1.7%.
  
  

• YoY Russia’s GDP fell 10.9% in Q2.
  

• UK July Retail Sales rose 3.6% YoY
  

• UK same store sales rose 1.8%

• Australia’s July Business Confidence rose to 10 from 4 in June
  

• China July Producer Price Index fell 8.2% YoY
  

• China's July Consumer Price Index fell 1.8% YoY
  

• China's July Exports fell 23.0% YoY
  

• China's July Imports fell -14.9% YoY
  

• Japan's July Consumer Confidence rose to 39.7 from 38.1 in June.
  

• Germany’s July Wholesale Price Index fell -10.6% YoY
  

• China's domestic soybean output growth can't match the rate of rising demand, so imports will continue to rise, a government official said Tuesday. China's soybean imports this year will likely total around 40 million metric tons, compared with 37.44 million tons last year, according to General Administration of Customs data. In the January-July period, China imported 26.48 million tons of soybeans, up 28% YoY

• More than 62% of ships on order today are bigger than 4,000 TEU, and only 11% are under that size at a time when smaller ships will be the first to benefit from recovery, according to Paris-based Alphaliner.
  

Quick Overview

• Japan's machinery orders rose 9.7% in June
  

• New Zealand July House Prices fell -5.0% YoY
  

• Norway’s July CPI fell -0.6% MoM
  

• GM and eBay will launch a pilot program Tuesday that will allow consumers to place online bids for new vehicles from GM dealers in California
  

• (Bloomberg) -- White sugar rose to a record in London as India, the world’s biggest consumer and second-largest producer, cut its forecast for monsoon rain, potentially worsening a global supply shortfall.

• Sugar supplies may not be enough to meet demand, and stocks at the end of the current crop year are seen at around 20 million tonnes, well below other analysts' estimates of 30-70 million tonnes, Czarnikow said.
  

• Egypt lifts import duty on raw and refined sugar from Aug. 15 until end of year to reduce consumer prices.

• Indonesia has set a ceiling price for white sugar sold by local cane millers at 6,500 rupiah (66 U.S. cents) a kg to prevent soaring local prices, the trade minister said on Friday.

• (SSY News) Latest information from China’s iron ore ports indicate that a total of 47 Capesize vessels are waiting to berth compared with a peak of 88 in mid-June.

Jim Rogers Says U.S. Commodity Curbs to Drive Markets Overseas
“It is remarkable because America is shooting itself in the foot again,” he said in an interview in Singapore today. “It’s going to drive the business away and the rest of the world is going to welcome it with open arms.”

Quick Overview

• (WSJ)Patchy rains for the second straight week dashed hopes of a late monsoon revival in India, and will seriously impact the output of summer-sown rice, sugar cane and pulses, industry officials said. The weather office reported that monsoon rains for the past week were 64 % below average.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- A coalition of food companies including General Mills Inc., Kraft Foods Inc. and ConAgra Foods Inc. asked the U.S. government to increase sugar-import quotas after inventories fell to a 34-year low and prices surged.
  
  

• (WSJ)Frank DiPascali, who helped run Madoff's investment-advisory operation, is expected to plead guilty to fraud charges on Tuesday and could become a central witness against other individuals in the case.

• In a recently released Harris Poll survey, 21% of American adults believe the sun revolves around the earth.

U.S. Household Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth
Since the start of the U.S. recession in December 2007, household leverage has declined. It currently stands at about 130% of disposable income. How much further will the deleveraging process go?

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate fell from 9.5% to 9.4% in July
  

• The European Central Bank and 18 other banks agreed to limit their sales of gold to no more than 400 tons per year until 2014.
  

• Canada’s July Unemployment Rate steady at 8.6% (8.8% expected)
  

• Australia’s Julys Construction Index out at 39.5 (42.6 expected)
  

• Switzerland’s July Unemployment Rate out at 3.9% up from 3.8% in June
  

• Germany’s June Trade Balance out at 12.2B (10.6B expected) and 9.5B in May
  

• UK July PPI Input/output out at -1.4%/+0.3% MoM (0.8%/0.0% expected)
  

• Germany’s June Industrial Production out at -0.1% MoM ( +0.5% expected)

Spike Coming in Commodities Prices: Goldman Sachs
As the developed world increasingly begins to consume like Westerners the demands placed on the finite resources of the planet increases. This trend of human populations growing faster than the earth's ability to produce not only impacts food production but that of commodity usage."

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 38,000 last week to 550,000 -- less than expected.
  

• New Zealand Q2 Unemployment Rate rose to 6.0% vs. 5.7% expected and 5.0% in Q1
  

• Australia's unemployment rate unchanged at 5.8% in July
  

• Germany June Factory Orders rose 4.5% MoM (0.6% expected) but fell 25.3% YoY
  

• Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 0.50% as expected, and said they would increase the level of quantitative easing (printing) from 125 to 175 billion pounds.
  

• ECB kept rates unchanged at 1.00% as expected
  

• Canada’s June Building Permits rose 1.0% (3.0% expected)
  

• Conab estimates Brazil's 2008-09 soy crop at 57.1 million metric tons, 4.8% below the
  2007-08 harvest of 60 million tons -- unchanged from last month's forecast.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management's index of services dropped from 47.0 to 46.4 in July
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 0.4% in June.
  

• The U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications rose 7.2% last week
  

• Germany’s July PMI Services out at 48.1 (48.4 estimate)
  

• EuroZone’s July PMI Services out at 45.7 (45.6 estimate)

• Retail sales in the EU rose 0.1% MoM, but fell 1.7% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s manufacturing output rose 0.4% MoM
  

• Australia's exports rose 2% MoM
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.7 million barrels to 349.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 200,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery fell from 84.6% to 84.5%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.5% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 7.9% YoY.
  
  
  

• (Bloomberg) Sugar imports by India, the world’s largest consumer, may more than triple in the year starting October as dry weather in key growing areas threatens to lower output, the nation’s fourth-biggest producer said. Purchases may surge to 8 million metric tons, up from an estimated 2.5 million tons this year.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. pending home sales rose 3.6% in June
  

• U.S. personal incomes fell 1.3% in June
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.4% in June
  

• U.K. construction activity rose from 44.5 to 47.0 in June
  

• EU industrial producer prices rose 0.2% MoM but fell down 6.7% YoY.
  

• German retail sales fell 1.8% in June
  

• Australia's retail sales fell 1.4% in June
  

Quick Overview

• Of the two-thirds of S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings 74% of them have exceeded expectations.
  

• U.S. manufacturing index rose from 44.8 to 48.9 in July
  

• U.S. construction spending rose 0.3% MoM but fell 11.4% YoY
  

• Manufacturing in China rose 51.8 to 52.8 in July,
  

• U.K. manufacturing rose from 47.4 to 50.8 in July,
  

• E.U. manufacturing rose from 42.6 to 46.3 in July
  

• Germany’s June Retail Sales fell -1.8% MoM (0.5% expected)
  
  

• (FT) White sugar prices hit their highest level in at least a quarter of century, moving above the $500 a tonne on Monday, boosted by the expectation that India will need to import sugar for the second year in a row.
  

• Ford said July U.S. vehicle sales rose 2.3% YoY
  

Alcoa Razes Rain Forest in Court Case Led by Brazil Prosecutors
The fires men set to clear land for ranches and farms create 6 percent of the carbon dioxide spewed into the air worldwide, according to the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists. That equates to half of all the emissions from cars, trucks, planes, trains and ships in the world.

‘Amazon is the Key’

Brazil has become the planet’s fourth-biggest polluter.

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell 0.2% in Q2 and 2.4% YoY
  

• YoY the U.S. employment cost index rose 1.8% in June.
  

• Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 39.9 to 43.4 in July
  

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.5% in May and 3.5% YoY.
  

• Japan’s June Jobless Rate rose to 5.4% (5.3% expected) and 5.2% in May
  

• YoY Japan’s June Household Spending rose 0.2% YoY (0.5% expected)
  

• Unemployment rate in the EU rose from 8.8% to 8.9% in June.
  

• EU July CPI fell 0.6%. (-0.4% expected)
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 25,000 last week to 584,000.
  

• Japan's industrial production rose 2.4% in June -- and 8.3% in Q2
• On this news copper rose to the highest close in nine month.

• Canada’s industrial prices rose 0.7% MoM, but fell 5.4% YoY
  

• The USDA said that China bought 70.5 mln bu of soybeans this AM. 4.4 mln bu is old-crop; rest is new-crop.

Quick Overview

• U.S. and Chinese economic leaders pledged to keep up stimulus efforts and to rein in trade and investment imbalances.
  

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 2.5% in June. Excluding transportation orders rose 1.1%
  

• U.S. mortgage applications fell 6% last week
  

• Japan June Retail sales fell 3.0% YoY (-2.5% expected)
  

• New Zealand Jul y Business Confidence rose to 18.7 from 5.5 in June.
  

• Germany’s July CPI fell 0.1% MoM and 0.6% YoY (+0.2%/-0.3% expected)
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 5.1 million barrels last week to 347.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 2.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 85.8% to 84.6% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.8% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 10.7% YoY.
  

• Coal supplies at U.S. power plants grew 0.5% WoW and 28% YoY amid unusually feeble summer demand, Genscape said.
  

• Container throughput at China ports fell 10.9% in the first half of 09.
  

• Shanghai’s foreign trade value fell 15.1% YoY but rose 13% MoM
  

• Egypt removed duties from imported sugar to help stabilize the price
  

• India is expected to import up to 5 million tonnes of sugar in 2009/10 Sucden said.

• Monsoon is weakening again in India with little rain forecast in the main bean growing areas next 5 days and longer.

• Microsoft and Yahoo unveiled a 10-year deal to create an online search and advertising partnership to challenge Google

• The determination to spit a cherry stone further than his friends almost killed a German man at the weekend when he fell off his balcony in the process, police said.

Quick Overview

• The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller's index of U.S. home prices rose 0.5% in May, but fell 17.1% YoY (17.9% expected) -- The first monthly increase in nearly three years
  

• New Zealand June Trade Balance out at -417M (+215M expected)
  

• MoM Sweden’s June PPI fell -0.8% (+0.1% expected)
  

• Sweden’s June Retail Sales fell -0.4% MoM (-0.3% expected)
  

• GE said the finance arm was on track to earn about $2 billion to $2.5 billion this year.
  

Surging Profit Estimates Signal 26% Rally for S&P 500
(Bloomberg) -- Analysts are raising U.S. profit estimates for the first time since credit markets froze two years ago,..

Quick Overview

• MoM U.S. New-home sales rose 11% in June, the third increase in a row and more than expected. September lumber is steady to higher.

• German consumer confidence rose to 3.5 points, up from 3 points -- a 14-month high.
  

• The USDA said on July 1st there were 101.8 million head of cattle in the U.S. down 1.45% YoY and the lowest in 36 years.
  

• There were 9.752 million head of cattle on feed, down 5.3% YoY
  

• (WSJ) After the driest June in 83 years, four of India's 28 provinces have declared drought. More than half of Uttar Pradesh state, India's most populous state and a key rice- and sugar cane-growing region.
  

• IT’s reading of Dow Theory is now bullish.

• The % of ETF's on our list of 718 funds that are up in the last 20 days is at 86%

• New high for the NY Volume Advance Decline Line

• (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian economy had fared well enough that upside risks to the outlook now balanced out those on the downside

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 30,000 last week to 554,000.
  

• U.S. existing home sales rose 3.6% in June.
  

• There is currently a 9.4 month supply of homes for sale in the U.S.
  

• YoY Japan's exports fell 36% in June
  

• Sweden’s June Unemployment Rate rose 0.8% to 9.8% in May
  

• Euro Zone May Current Account out at -1.2B vs. -6.1B in Apr.
  

• UK June Retail Sales rose 1.2% MoM vs. -0.9% in May
  

• Canada’s consumer confidence rose from 82.1 to 82.9 in July
  

• The USDA said that there were 579 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, up 9% YoY
  

• Frozen bellies totaled 76.4 million pounds, up 3% YoY
  

Quick Overview

• US Weekly Consumer Confidence out at -50 as expected
  

• US exports are forecast to fall 13.6% this year, but expected to rise 1.7% next year according to a Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI report.
  

• Australia’s Q2 Consumer Prices rose 0.5% QoQ.
  

• YoY Japan’s June Supermarket Sales fell -4.4%
  

• MoM Euro Zone May Industrial New Orders fell -0.2%
  

• UK July CBI Total Orders Index fell to -59 versus -51 in June.
  

• Canada’s retail sales rose1.2% in May
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 1.8 million barrels last week to 342.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 800,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 800,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.9% to 85.8%.
  YoY Gasoline demand rose 0.7%
  YoY Distillate demand fell 11.0%.
  
  

Quick Overview

• Bernanke shed light on the Fed's exit strategy, but made clear to lawmakers that the economy remains too weak to start tightening monetary policy.
  

• Bank of Canada leaves rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected
  

• The U.K.'s June budget deficit of $21.4 billion is the biggest since records began in 1993.
  

• YoY New Zealand June Credit Card Spending fell -2.1%
  

• YoY Japan June Department Store Sales fell -8.8%
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. leading indicators rose 0.7% in June, better than expected.
  

• Canada’s May Wholesale Sales dropped -0.3%
  

• UK July House Prices rose +0.6% MoM and -3.1% YoY
  

• Australia’s Q2 Producer Price Index fell -0.8% QoQ

• Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) more than tripled after the company and GlaxoSmithKline said their experimental lupus drug reduced patients’ symptoms in a yearlong study.

• Germany’s June Producer Prices fell -0.1% MoM

• Cocoa futures rose above a 5-month high on fund buying and better than expected North American Q2 grind data.

• (MarketWatch) -- A package of government bailout packages could cost $23.7 trillion, according to testimony prepared by a special inspector general expected to appear on Capitol Hill this week.

Mobius Says China Market Value to Overtake U.S. in Three Years
China’s market is valued at $3.2 trillion, compared with $11.2 trillion in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has gained 4.1 percent in 2009, while China’s 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package lifted the Shanghai Composite Index 75 percent this year.

Fiscal ruin of the Western world beckons
No doubt Ireland has been the victim of a savagely tight monetary policy e_SEmD given its specific needs. But the deeper truth is that Britain, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, the US, and Japan are in varying states of fiscal ruin, and those tipping into demographic decline (unlike young Ireland) have an underlying cancer that is even more deadly. The West cannot support its gold-plated state structures from an aging workforce and depleted tax base.

Quick Overview

• MoM U.S. Home construction unexpectedly rose 3.6% in June but fell 52% YoY
  

• Australia Q2 Import Price Index fell -6.4% QoQ
  

• China's June Wholesale Prices fell -8.0% YoY
  

• Norway's Q2 Existing Home Prices rose 5.3% YoY
  

• Euro Zone May Construction Output fell -2.0% MoM.
  

• Canada's June CPI rose +0.3% MoM and fell 0.3% YoY
  

• Canada's June Leading Indicators fell -0.1%
  
  

• YoY the USDA expects pork production to fall 3% in Q3 and down 2% Q4
  

• The USDA expects beef production to fall 8% in 2009 and rise 9% in 2010.

• The North American cocoa grind totaled 105,123 tons in Q2, down 6.75% YoY

• More than 650,000 Americans will have used up all of their unemployment benefits by September.
  

• GE announced Q2 2009 earnings of $2.9 billion, or $.26 per share, down 47% from Q2 of 2008.
  

• Blogs claim Microsoft is close to sealing a deal to buy Yahoo's search business

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 47,000 last week to 522,000.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -2.2 to -7.5 in July.
  

• YoY China's GDP rose 7.9% in Q2 after a 6.1% gain in the previous three months

• China June Producer Price Index fell -7.8% versus -7.2% in May

• China June Consumer Price Index fell -1.7% versus -1.4% in May

• China June Retail Sales rose 15.0% China Jun. Industrial Production rose 10.7% YoY
  

• China’s exports fell 21.4% in June -- that was an improvement over May's record 26.4% drop.
  

• Japan’s tertiary index of services fell 0.1% in May.
  

• The International Coffee Organization raised its estimate of 2008-2009 world coffee production from 126.1 to 128.8 million bags
  

• (FT) CIT said overnight there was no “appreciable likelihood” of a government bailout, leaving the company facing a bankruptcy filing unless another last-minute restructuring deal can be struck.
  

• J.P. Morgan Chase reported a 36% jump in profit.
  

• Imports at the leading container ports increased 5% MoM compared with April, but were down 20% YoY.

• (Economic Times) Jim Rogers "I do actually have a silver coin in my pocket. I also have a gold coin, but the silver one is probably my better play. If I were a bright young man, I would be buying sugar now and silver, given the state of the world. That's not a recommendation, but I am just saying I do own some silver. Silver is cheaper than many things on a historic basis and I do own some silver," Rogers said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.7% in June and fell 1.4% YoY.
  

• U.S. industrial production fell 0.4% in June.
  

• US June Capacity Utilization fell to 68.0% vs. 67.9% expected and 68.2% in May
  

• The N.Y. Feds regional index of manufacturing rose from -9.4 to -.6 in July
  

• Japan left target rate unchanged at 0.10% as expected
  

• Switzerland May Retail Sales fell -1.4% YoY
  

• Euro Zone June CPI rose 0.2% MoM. Core CPI rose 1.4% YoY
  

• Bloomberg's Global Confidence Indicator fell to 39.13 in July from 43.57 in June
  

• Canada May Manufacturing Shipments fell -6.0% vs. -2.5% expected
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.8 million barrels to 344.5 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.5 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 500,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 86.8% to 87.9% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 0.6% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 11.7% YoY.
  

• China bought another 4.2 million bushels of old-crop soybeans this AM

• Brazil is expected to produce a record 52 million 60-kg bags of coffee in the 2010/11 crop year, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

• YoY Russian 2009/10 sugar output is set to fall below 2.9 million tonnes from 3.5.

Microsoft Research and Bill Gates Bring Historic Physics Lectures to Web
Richard Feynman lectures delivered at Cornell University in 1964

The Great American Bubble Machine
What you need to know is the big picture: If America is circling the drain, Goldman Sachs has found a way to be that drain —

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in June. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.3%
  

• U.S. producer prices rose 1.8% in June, but fell 4.6% YoY
  

• Industrial production in the EU rose 0.1% in May, but fell 15.9% YoY
  

• U.K.'s consumer prices rose 1.8%
  

• UK June Retail Sales rose 3.2% YoY
  

• UK May DCLG House Prices fell -12.5% YoY
  

• Business confidence in Australia rose from -2 to +4 in June

• China's foreign-exchange reserves rose a record $178 billion in Q2 to $2.132 Trillion
  

• Intel said sales will reach $8.9 billion in the current quarter, surpassing the $7.86 billion estimated by analysts.

Cash-strapped Boston zoo may be forced to close doors, euthanize animals

Spain seeks sunken treasure
Gold bullion and silver treasure worth an estimated £85billion - the size of the nation's current budget shortfall - lies on the sea bed off the coast of southern Spain.

Quick Overview

• New Zealand May Retail Sales rose 0.8% MoM
  

• Japan June Consumer Confidence rose to 38.1 from 36.3 in May
  

• Switzerland June Producer and Import Prices were unchanged at 0.0% MoM

• Singapore's economy grew for the first time in a year, rising 20% in Q2

Europe digs its economic grave while the ECB answers to no one
Nobody knows where the tipping point lies on public debt, though anything above 100pc of GDP in a currency union is courting fate. Some are already there. The European Commission says Italian debt will jump to 116pc in 2010. Greece is vaulting back to 109pc, Belgium to 101pc, France to 86pc.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $25.96 billion in May, its lowest level since November 1999
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 70.8 to 64.6 in July
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 8.4% to 8.6% in June

• Germany June Wholesale Price Index rose 0.9% MoM but was still down 8.8% YoY
  

• Norway June CPI rose 0.6% MoM
  Norway June Producer Prices rose 8.7% MoM and 0.8 YoY
  

• UK June PPI rose 1.5
  

• US June Import Price Index rose 3.2% MoM
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was raised from 1.09 to 1.55 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were raised from 210 to 250 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 647 to 706 million bushels.
  Sugar was lowered from 459,000 to 359,000 tons.
  Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was raised from 125 to 139 million tons.
  Soybeans were raised from 51 to 52 million tons.
  Wheat was lowered from 183 to 181 million tons.
  Cotton was raised from 57 to 58 million tons.
  

• The USDA raised the 2008-2009 Florida orange crop from 160 to 162 million boxes.
  
  

Shipping Rates Will Decline After Record Rally, Survey Shows
The cost of transporting coal, iron ore and grain by sea will decline this quarter, ending a record rally, a survey showed. The Baltic Dry Index will average 2,950 points in the third quarter, according to the median estimate of seven analysts, traders and fund managers surveyed July 3 to 7. That’s 5 percent less than yesterday’s 3,107 points.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 52,000 last week to 565,000.
  

• China’s car sales rose 48%.
  

• (Bloomberg) China’s new lending more than doubled in June from a month earlier, increasing concerns bad loans and asset bubbles will emerge amid a credit boom.
  

• Japan’s June Machine Tool Orders fell 73.1% YoY

• YoY Japan's wholesale prices fell 6.6% in June , the biggest fall on record

• Australia's unemployment rate rose to a six-year high of 5.8 % in June.
  

• The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%
  

• U.K. exports fell 1% in May while imports fell 4%.
  

• Canada's housing starts rose 8% in June.
  

• YoY European Cocoa grindings fell 11.3%
  

India May Face Drought if Monsoon is Weak
"The window of opportunity for planting most kharif crops (rice, coarse grains, soybeans, peanut, cotton and pulses) will be over by mid-July. If rains come in the next week, planting operations will pick up," the report said.

Quick Overview

• The IMF expects the world economy to contract 1.4% in 09, but increase 2.5% in 2010.
  

• The IMF expects U.S. GDP to fall 2.6% in 09 and go up 0.8% in 2010.
  

• The IMF expects China’s GDP to rise 7.5% in 2009 and up 8.5% in 2010.
  

• Japan’s June Machine Orders fell -3.0% MoM
  

• Australia’s Consumer Confidence rose 9.3%.
  

• Australia’s May Home Loans rose 2.2%.
  

• Switzerland’s June Unemployment Rate rose to 3.8%
  

• Sweden May Industrial Production fell -2.7% MoM
  

• Germany’s May Industrial Production rose 3.7% MoM

• Chinese official are touting an expansion of gold holdings by China and suggesting that the increased holdings were needed as a hedge against a long term downtrend in the Dollar
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.9 million barrels to 347.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 2.0 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.0% to 86.8%.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 12.3% YoY.
  
  

• Shares of ICE and CME extended losses following news the CFTC is planning to propose trading limits on oil and natural gas.
  

Quick Overview

• A record 3.23% of U.S. consumer loans were late by 30 days or more, the most since records began in 1974.

• (Bloomberg) -- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will announce today plans to introduce curbs on speculation of commodities including energy
  

• U.K. manufacturing output fell 0.5% in May
  

• Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 3.0%
  

• Norway May Industrial Production fell -7.8% YoY
  

• UK May Industrial Production fell -0.6% MoM
  

• Germany May Factory Orders rose 4.4% MoM but fell 29.4% YoY
  

• Canada May Building Permits rose 14.8% MoM

• In the U.S. the calls for more stimulus spending are becoming louder.
  

• Is California printing (quantitative easing) its own currency (IOU’s)? More states to follow?

SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH HENRY KISSINGER
'Obama Is Like a Chess Player'
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, 86, discusses the painful lessons of the Treaty of Versailles, idealism in politics and Obama's opportunity to forge a peaceful American foreign policy.

Stephen Hawking: "Humans Have Entered a New Stage of Evolution"
The rate of biological evolution in humans is about a bit a year,compared to 50,000 new books published in the English language each year, containing on the order of a hundred billion bits of information, Stephen Hawking says. This means we are now entering a new phase of evolution -- "self designed evolution" --

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management’s index of services rose from 44.0 to 47.0 in June
  

• Retail sales in the EU-27 fell 0.5% in May.
  

• Euro Zone July Sentix Investor Confidence fell to -31.3 from -27.0 in June
  

• Services in the U.K. fell from 51.7 to 51.6 in May
  

• New Zealand June House Prices fell 7.1% YoY
  

• German cocoa grindings fell 15% YoY.

• (FT) India, the world's largest consumer of gold, faces a drop in precious metal imports after the government revealed plans to double import taxes on gold and silver

• Moody's Investors Service has downgraded American ports from "stable" to "negative" as the downturn reduces consumer demand and cargo volumes.
  
  

The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking
The Centre for Labour Market Studies (CLMS) in Boston says US unemployment is now 18.2pc, counting the old-fashioned way

Quick Overview

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.4% to 9.5% in June
  

• U.S. jobless claims were down 16,000 last week to 614,000.
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.2%.
  

• The unemployment rate in the EU rose from 8.7% to 8.9% in May
  

• The European Central Bank met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%.
  

• “More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there’s very little chance of the development stalling or reversing,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in a report.
  

• India is expected to produce 15 million tonnes of sugar in the year to September, down 43% YoY. Demand for the world's top consumer and biggest producer after Brazil, was expected to be 22.5 million tonnes in 2008/09.
  

• Indonesia's coffee output is forecast to grow by 3% to 689,000 tonnes in 2009.

Quick Overview

• U.S. index of pending home sales rose 0.1% in May
  

• U.S. ISM index of manufacturing rose from 42.8 to 44.8
  

• U.S. construction spending fell 0.9% MoM and 11.6% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s index of services fell 0.1% in April.
  

• U.K.’s index of manufacturing rose from 45.4 to 47.0
  

• Japan's Tankan business confidence rose from -58 to -48
  

• Australia’s May Retail Sales rose 1.0% MoM
  

• China’s June Manufacturing PMI out at 53.2 versus 53.1 prior
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.7 million barrels to 350.2 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 2.8 million barrel
  Refinery use fell from 87.1% to 87.0%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.9% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.4% YoY.

• China wants to debate a new reserve currency at next week's G8 meeting

Quick Overview

• Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index of U.S. home prices fell 0.6% MoM and 18.1% YoY
  

• U.K. GDP fell 4.9%
  

• Japan’s unemployment rate rose from 5.0% to 5.2%,
  

• Japan’s household spending rose 0.3%

• New Zealand June Business Confidence rose to 5.5 from 1.9 in May
  

• UK Consumer Confidence rose to -25 from -27 in May

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY
  

• Canada’s industrial prices fell 1.1% MoM and 4.3% YoY
  

• The USDA said:
  87.03 million acres of corn were planted – above trade estimates.
  77.48 million acres of soybeans were planted -- less than expected.
  59.78 million acres of wheat were planted – above trade estimates.
  

• The USDA said June grain stocks for:
  Corn were 4.27 billion bushels – modestly above trade estimates.
  Soybeans were 597 million bushels, modestly above trade estimates.
  Wheat were 667 million bushels.

Argentina faces having to import wheat
"Since records started in Argentina more than 100 years ago there is not a single season with a lower planted area,” said Esteban Copati, an agricultural analyst at the exchange. “The wheat-sowing season has started badly, on the wrong footing.”