Surging Profit Estimates Signal 26% Rally for S&P 500
(Bloomberg) -- Analysts are raising U.S. profit estimates for the first time since credit markets froze two years ago,..

Quick Overview

• MoM U.S. New-home sales rose 11% in June, the third increase in a row and more than expected. September lumber is steady to higher.

• German consumer confidence rose to 3.5 points, up from 3 points -- a 14-month high.
  

• The USDA said on July 1st there were 101.8 million head of cattle in the U.S. down 1.45% YoY and the lowest in 36 years.
  

• There were 9.752 million head of cattle on feed, down 5.3% YoY
  

• (WSJ) After the driest June in 83 years, four of India's 28 provinces have declared drought. More than half of Uttar Pradesh state, India's most populous state and a key rice- and sugar cane-growing region.
  

• IT’s reading of Dow Theory is now bullish.

• The % of ETF's on our list of 718 funds that are up in the last 20 days is at 86%

• New high for the NY Volume Advance Decline Line

• (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped against the dollar and the yen on Tuesday after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian economy had fared well enough that upside risks to the outlook now balanced out those on the downside

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 30,000 last week to 554,000.
  

• U.S. existing home sales rose 3.6% in June.
  

• There is currently a 9.4 month supply of homes for sale in the U.S.
  

• YoY Japan's exports fell 36% in June
  

• Sweden’s June Unemployment Rate rose 0.8% to 9.8% in May
  

• Euro Zone May Current Account out at -1.2B vs. -6.1B in Apr.
  

• UK June Retail Sales rose 1.2% MoM vs. -0.9% in May
  

• Canada’s consumer confidence rose from 82.1 to 82.9 in July
  

• The USDA said that there were 579 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, up 9% YoY
  

• Frozen bellies totaled 76.4 million pounds, up 3% YoY
  

Quick Overview

• US Weekly Consumer Confidence out at -50 as expected
  

• US exports are forecast to fall 13.6% this year, but expected to rise 1.7% next year according to a Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI report.
  

• Australia’s Q2 Consumer Prices rose 0.5% QoQ.
  

• YoY Japan’s June Supermarket Sales fell -4.4%
  

• MoM Euro Zone May Industrial New Orders fell -0.2%
  

• UK July CBI Total Orders Index fell to -59 versus -51 in June.
  

• Canada’s retail sales rose1.2% in May
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 1.8 million barrels last week to 342.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 800,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 800,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.9% to 85.8%.
  YoY Gasoline demand rose 0.7%
  YoY Distillate demand fell 11.0%.
  
  

Quick Overview

• Bernanke shed light on the Fed's exit strategy, but made clear to lawmakers that the economy remains too weak to start tightening monetary policy.
  

• Bank of Canada leaves rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected
  

• The U.K.'s June budget deficit of $21.4 billion is the biggest since records began in 1993.
  

• YoY New Zealand June Credit Card Spending fell -2.1%
  

• YoY Japan June Department Store Sales fell -8.8%
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. leading indicators rose 0.7% in June, better than expected.
  

• Canada’s May Wholesale Sales dropped -0.3%
  

• UK July House Prices rose +0.6% MoM and -3.1% YoY
  

• Australia’s Q2 Producer Price Index fell -0.8% QoQ

• Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) more than tripled after the company and GlaxoSmithKline said their experimental lupus drug reduced patients’ symptoms in a yearlong study.

• Germany’s June Producer Prices fell -0.1% MoM

• Cocoa futures rose above a 5-month high on fund buying and better than expected North American Q2 grind data.

• (MarketWatch) -- A package of government bailout packages could cost $23.7 trillion, according to testimony prepared by a special inspector general expected to appear on Capitol Hill this week.

Mobius Says China Market Value to Overtake U.S. in Three Years
China’s market is valued at $3.2 trillion, compared with $11.2 trillion in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has gained 4.1 percent in 2009, while China’s 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package lifted the Shanghai Composite Index 75 percent this year.

Fiscal ruin of the Western world beckons
No doubt Ireland has been the victim of a savagely tight monetary policy e_SEmD given its specific needs. But the deeper truth is that Britain, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, the US, and Japan are in varying states of fiscal ruin, and those tipping into demographic decline (unlike young Ireland) have an underlying cancer that is even more deadly. The West cannot support its gold-plated state structures from an aging workforce and depleted tax base.

Quick Overview

• MoM U.S. Home construction unexpectedly rose 3.6% in June but fell 52% YoY
  

• Australia Q2 Import Price Index fell -6.4% QoQ
  

• China's June Wholesale Prices fell -8.0% YoY
  

• Norway's Q2 Existing Home Prices rose 5.3% YoY
  

• Euro Zone May Construction Output fell -2.0% MoM.
  

• Canada's June CPI rose +0.3% MoM and fell 0.3% YoY
  

• Canada's June Leading Indicators fell -0.1%
  
  

• YoY the USDA expects pork production to fall 3% in Q3 and down 2% Q4
  

• The USDA expects beef production to fall 8% in 2009 and rise 9% in 2010.

• The North American cocoa grind totaled 105,123 tons in Q2, down 6.75% YoY

• More than 650,000 Americans will have used up all of their unemployment benefits by September.
  

• GE announced Q2 2009 earnings of $2.9 billion, or $.26 per share, down 47% from Q2 of 2008.
  

• Blogs claim Microsoft is close to sealing a deal to buy Yahoo's search business

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 47,000 last week to 522,000.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -2.2 to -7.5 in July.
  

• YoY China's GDP rose 7.9% in Q2 after a 6.1% gain in the previous three months

• China June Producer Price Index fell -7.8% versus -7.2% in May

• China June Consumer Price Index fell -1.7% versus -1.4% in May

• China June Retail Sales rose 15.0% China Jun. Industrial Production rose 10.7% YoY
  

• China’s exports fell 21.4% in June -- that was an improvement over May's record 26.4% drop.
  

• Japan’s tertiary index of services fell 0.1% in May.
  

• The International Coffee Organization raised its estimate of 2008-2009 world coffee production from 126.1 to 128.8 million bags
  

• (FT) CIT said overnight there was no “appreciable likelihood” of a government bailout, leaving the company facing a bankruptcy filing unless another last-minute restructuring deal can be struck.
  

• J.P. Morgan Chase reported a 36% jump in profit.
  

• Imports at the leading container ports increased 5% MoM compared with April, but were down 20% YoY.

• (Economic Times) Jim Rogers "I do actually have a silver coin in my pocket. I also have a gold coin, but the silver one is probably my better play. If I were a bright young man, I would be buying sugar now and silver, given the state of the world. That's not a recommendation, but I am just saying I do own some silver. Silver is cheaper than many things on a historic basis and I do own some silver," Rogers said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.7% in June and fell 1.4% YoY.
  

• U.S. industrial production fell 0.4% in June.
  

• US June Capacity Utilization fell to 68.0% vs. 67.9% expected and 68.2% in May
  

• The N.Y. Feds regional index of manufacturing rose from -9.4 to -.6 in July
  

• Japan left target rate unchanged at 0.10% as expected
  

• Switzerland May Retail Sales fell -1.4% YoY
  

• Euro Zone June CPI rose 0.2% MoM. Core CPI rose 1.4% YoY
  

• Bloomberg's Global Confidence Indicator fell to 39.13 in July from 43.57 in June
  

• Canada May Manufacturing Shipments fell -6.0% vs. -2.5% expected
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.8 million barrels to 344.5 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.5 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 500,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 86.8% to 87.9% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 0.6% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 11.7% YoY.
  

• China bought another 4.2 million bushels of old-crop soybeans this AM

• Brazil is expected to produce a record 52 million 60-kg bags of coffee in the 2010/11 crop year, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

• YoY Russian 2009/10 sugar output is set to fall below 2.9 million tonnes from 3.5.

Microsoft Research and Bill Gates Bring Historic Physics Lectures to Web
Richard Feynman lectures delivered at Cornell University in 1964

The Great American Bubble Machine
What you need to know is the big picture: If America is circling the drain, Goldman Sachs has found a way to be that drain —

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in June. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.3%
  

• U.S. producer prices rose 1.8% in June, but fell 4.6% YoY
  

• Industrial production in the EU rose 0.1% in May, but fell 15.9% YoY
  

• U.K.'s consumer prices rose 1.8%
  

• UK June Retail Sales rose 3.2% YoY
  

• UK May DCLG House Prices fell -12.5% YoY
  

• Business confidence in Australia rose from -2 to +4 in June

• China's foreign-exchange reserves rose a record $178 billion in Q2 to $2.132 Trillion
  

• Intel said sales will reach $8.9 billion in the current quarter, surpassing the $7.86 billion estimated by analysts.

Cash-strapped Boston zoo may be forced to close doors, euthanize animals

Spain seeks sunken treasure
Gold bullion and silver treasure worth an estimated £85billion - the size of the nation's current budget shortfall - lies on the sea bed off the coast of southern Spain.

Quick Overview

• New Zealand May Retail Sales rose 0.8% MoM
  

• Japan June Consumer Confidence rose to 38.1 from 36.3 in May
  

• Switzerland June Producer and Import Prices were unchanged at 0.0% MoM

• Singapore's economy grew for the first time in a year, rising 20% in Q2

Europe digs its economic grave while the ECB answers to no one
Nobody knows where the tipping point lies on public debt, though anything above 100pc of GDP in a currency union is courting fate. Some are already there. The European Commission says Italian debt will jump to 116pc in 2010. Greece is vaulting back to 109pc, Belgium to 101pc, France to 86pc.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $25.96 billion in May, its lowest level since November 1999
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 70.8 to 64.6 in July
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 8.4% to 8.6% in June

• Germany June Wholesale Price Index rose 0.9% MoM but was still down 8.8% YoY
  

• Norway June CPI rose 0.6% MoM
  Norway June Producer Prices rose 8.7% MoM and 0.8 YoY
  

• UK June PPI rose 1.5
  

• US June Import Price Index rose 3.2% MoM
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was raised from 1.09 to 1.55 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were raised from 210 to 250 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 647 to 706 million bushels.
  Sugar was lowered from 459,000 to 359,000 tons.
  Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was raised from 125 to 139 million tons.
  Soybeans were raised from 51 to 52 million tons.
  Wheat was lowered from 183 to 181 million tons.
  Cotton was raised from 57 to 58 million tons.
  

• The USDA raised the 2008-2009 Florida orange crop from 160 to 162 million boxes.
  
  

Shipping Rates Will Decline After Record Rally, Survey Shows
The cost of transporting coal, iron ore and grain by sea will decline this quarter, ending a record rally, a survey showed. The Baltic Dry Index will average 2,950 points in the third quarter, according to the median estimate of seven analysts, traders and fund managers surveyed July 3 to 7. That’s 5 percent less than yesterday’s 3,107 points.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 52,000 last week to 565,000.
  

• China’s car sales rose 48%.
  

• (Bloomberg) China’s new lending more than doubled in June from a month earlier, increasing concerns bad loans and asset bubbles will emerge amid a credit boom.
  

• Japan’s June Machine Tool Orders fell 73.1% YoY

• YoY Japan's wholesale prices fell 6.6% in June , the biggest fall on record

• Australia's unemployment rate rose to a six-year high of 5.8 % in June.
  

• The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%
  

• U.K. exports fell 1% in May while imports fell 4%.
  

• Canada's housing starts rose 8% in June.
  

• YoY European Cocoa grindings fell 11.3%
  

India May Face Drought if Monsoon is Weak
"The window of opportunity for planting most kharif crops (rice, coarse grains, soybeans, peanut, cotton and pulses) will be over by mid-July. If rains come in the next week, planting operations will pick up," the report said.

Quick Overview

• The IMF expects the world economy to contract 1.4% in 09, but increase 2.5% in 2010.
  

• The IMF expects U.S. GDP to fall 2.6% in 09 and go up 0.8% in 2010.
  

• The IMF expects China’s GDP to rise 7.5% in 2009 and up 8.5% in 2010.
  

• Japan’s June Machine Orders fell -3.0% MoM
  

• Australia’s Consumer Confidence rose 9.3%.
  

• Australia’s May Home Loans rose 2.2%.
  

• Switzerland’s June Unemployment Rate rose to 3.8%
  

• Sweden May Industrial Production fell -2.7% MoM
  

• Germany’s May Industrial Production rose 3.7% MoM

• Chinese official are touting an expansion of gold holdings by China and suggesting that the increased holdings were needed as a hedge against a long term downtrend in the Dollar
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.9 million barrels to 347.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 2.0 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.0% to 86.8%.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 12.3% YoY.
  
  

• Shares of ICE and CME extended losses following news the CFTC is planning to propose trading limits on oil and natural gas.
  

Quick Overview

• A record 3.23% of U.S. consumer loans were late by 30 days or more, the most since records began in 1974.

• (Bloomberg) -- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will announce today plans to introduce curbs on speculation of commodities including energy
  

• U.K. manufacturing output fell 0.5% in May
  

• Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 3.0%
  

• Norway May Industrial Production fell -7.8% YoY
  

• UK May Industrial Production fell -0.6% MoM
  

• Germany May Factory Orders rose 4.4% MoM but fell 29.4% YoY
  

• Canada May Building Permits rose 14.8% MoM

• In the U.S. the calls for more stimulus spending are becoming louder.
  

• Is California printing (quantitative easing) its own currency (IOU’s)? More states to follow?

SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH HENRY KISSINGER
'Obama Is Like a Chess Player'
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, 86, discusses the painful lessons of the Treaty of Versailles, idealism in politics and Obama's opportunity to forge a peaceful American foreign policy.

Stephen Hawking: "Humans Have Entered a New Stage of Evolution"
The rate of biological evolution in humans is about a bit a year,compared to 50,000 new books published in the English language each year, containing on the order of a hundred billion bits of information, Stephen Hawking says. This means we are now entering a new phase of evolution -- "self designed evolution" --

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management’s index of services rose from 44.0 to 47.0 in June
  

• Retail sales in the EU-27 fell 0.5% in May.
  

• Euro Zone July Sentix Investor Confidence fell to -31.3 from -27.0 in June
  

• Services in the U.K. fell from 51.7 to 51.6 in May
  

• New Zealand June House Prices fell 7.1% YoY
  

• German cocoa grindings fell 15% YoY.

• (FT) India, the world's largest consumer of gold, faces a drop in precious metal imports after the government revealed plans to double import taxes on gold and silver

• Moody's Investors Service has downgraded American ports from "stable" to "negative" as the downturn reduces consumer demand and cargo volumes.
  
  

The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking
The Centre for Labour Market Studies (CLMS) in Boston says US unemployment is now 18.2pc, counting the old-fashioned way

Quick Overview

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 9.4% to 9.5% in June
  

• U.S. jobless claims were down 16,000 last week to 614,000.
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.2%.
  

• The unemployment rate in the EU rose from 8.7% to 8.9% in May
  

• The European Central Bank met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%.
  

• “More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there’s very little chance of the development stalling or reversing,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in a report.
  

• India is expected to produce 15 million tonnes of sugar in the year to September, down 43% YoY. Demand for the world's top consumer and biggest producer after Brazil, was expected to be 22.5 million tonnes in 2008/09.
  

• Indonesia's coffee output is forecast to grow by 3% to 689,000 tonnes in 2009.

Quick Overview

• U.S. index of pending home sales rose 0.1% in May
  

• U.S. ISM index of manufacturing rose from 42.8 to 44.8
  

• U.S. construction spending fell 0.9% MoM and 11.6% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s index of services fell 0.1% in April.
  

• U.K.’s index of manufacturing rose from 45.4 to 47.0
  

• Japan's Tankan business confidence rose from -58 to -48
  

• Australia’s May Retail Sales rose 1.0% MoM
  

• China’s June Manufacturing PMI out at 53.2 versus 53.1 prior
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.7 million barrels to 350.2 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 2.8 million barrel
  Refinery use fell from 87.1% to 87.0%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.9% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.4% YoY.

• China wants to debate a new reserve currency at next week's G8 meeting

Quick Overview

• Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index of U.S. home prices fell 0.6% MoM and 18.1% YoY
  

• U.K. GDP fell 4.9%
  

• Japan’s unemployment rate rose from 5.0% to 5.2%,
  

• Japan’s household spending rose 0.3%

• New Zealand June Business Confidence rose to 5.5 from 1.9 in May
  

• UK Consumer Confidence rose to -25 from -27 in May

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY
  

• Canada’s industrial prices fell 1.1% MoM and 4.3% YoY
  

• The USDA said:
  87.03 million acres of corn were planted – above trade estimates.
  77.48 million acres of soybeans were planted -- less than expected.
  59.78 million acres of wheat were planted – above trade estimates.
  

• The USDA said June grain stocks for:
  Corn were 4.27 billion bushels – modestly above trade estimates.
  Soybeans were 597 million bushels, modestly above trade estimates.
  Wheat were 667 million bushels.

Argentina faces having to import wheat
"Since records started in Argentina more than 100 years ago there is not a single season with a lower planted area,” said Esteban Copati, an agricultural analyst at the exchange. “The wheat-sowing season has started badly, on the wrong footing.”

China's banks are an accident waiting to happen to every one of us
The regime is so hellbent on meeting its growth target of 8pc that it has given banks an implicit guarantee for what Fitch calls a "massive lending spree".

Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $4,200bn. It is rising at a 30pc rate, even as profits contract at a 35pc rate.

Quick Overview

• Japan’s May Retail Sales fell 2.8% YoY
  

• Japan’s Industrial output rose 5.9% in May, the third consecutive month of positive gain.
  

• The USDA said there were 66.08 million hogs and pigs in the U.S. on June 1st, down 2.0% YoY.
  

• The USDA said 5.97 million hogs were kept for breeding, down 2.7% YoY

• Local expert says that Argentina may step out of wheat export market for the first time since 1910 – Arlan Suderman (Farm Futures)

• Bernard Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes rose 1.4% in May
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3%.
  

• U.S. savings rate rose 6.9%, the highest in 15 years.
  

• University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 68.7 to 70.8
  

• QoQ New Zealand’s GDP fell 1.0%
  

• YoY Japan’s CPI fell 1.1% in May
  

• (FT) The People's Bank of China repeated its call for the world to cut its reliance on the dollar, saying it saw serious defects in one currency dominating the global monetary system
  
  

• The USDA said the U.S. produced 2.18 billion pounds of beef in May, down 8% YoY
  

• The USDA said the U.S. produced 1.72 billion pounds of pork in May, down 5% YoY
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell 1.4% in Q1 and 2.5% YoY
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 15,000 last week to 627,000.
  

• US Q1 Personal Consumption rose 1.4% vs. 1.5% expected
  

• Euro zone’s index of industrial new orders fell 0.5% MoM and 35% YoY
  

• Sweden’s June Consumer Confidence rose to -9.0 vs. -8.8 expected and -11.0 in May
  
  

India Rains May Be Below Average, Worsening Dry Spell
(Bloomberg) -- India’s monsoon rainfall, the main source of irrigation for the country’s 235 million farmers, may be below average this year, denting prospects for bigger crops of rice, oilseeds and sugar cane.

Quick Overview

• (FT) The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has revised its World Economic Outlook upwards for the first time in two years, as its latest review concludes that the global economic slide is nearing a bottom
  

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.8% in May. Excluding transportation orders rose 1.1%.
  

• U.S. new home sales fell 0.6%. YoY new home sales are down 38%.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.8 million barrels last week to 353.9 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 100,000 barrels.
  Refinery use increased from 85.9% to 87.1%
  Gasoline demand rose 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9. 3% YoY
  

• (FT) The Swiss franc fell sharply on Wednesday after the country's central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market to halt the currency's rise
  

• (Spiegel) A German court has ruled that pupils can rate their teachers online, rejecting a bid by one instructor to shut down a Web site that gave her a low grade.

• Northeast China's Port of Rizhao port handled 16.4 million tonnes of cargo in May, up 26.9 % YoY

Obama vs. Obama

Quick Overview

• U.S. existing home sales rose 2.4% to 4.77 million units in May -- less than expected.
  

• U.S. home prices fell 6.8% YoY and 0.1% MoM.
  

• (Reuters) - U.S. chief executives took a slightly less grim view of the economy in the second quarter, but still plan to cut jobs and capital spending, according to a Business Roundtable survey released on Tuesday.

• Japan's exports in May dropped 40.9% YoY

• Germany’s July Consumer Confidence rose to 2.9 from 2.6 in June
  

• Switzerland May Trade Balance out at 2.01B vs. 2.55B in April.
  

• Euro Zone June PMI Manufacturing out at 42.4 versus 40.7 in May.
  

• Euro Zone June PMI Services out at 44.5 versus. 44.8 in May
  

• The USDA said there were 79.1 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage, down 9.5% YoY.
  
• Frozen pork totaled 584.1 million pounds, up 0.8% YoY.
  

• The USDA said frozen supplies of orange juice in storage at the end of May were up 0.6% YoY.
  

• (FT) Japanese retail investors, once enamored of Icelandic bank accounts and kiwi bonds, are now turning their purchasing power to Japanese stocks
  

• FedEx CEO says the worst is behind us and is poised for growth in the second half
  

• China has cut the export tax on several steel products to 5% from the 10-15%.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Sugar jumped to the highest price since July 2006 on signs that a production deficit may extend into a second year

• China's sugar imports in May rose 26% on year to 141,457 metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said.

• India’s sugar output is forecast to drop about 45% to 14.7 million tonnes in the crop year to September.

• (WSJ) Madoff asked a federal judge to sentence him to as little as 12 years in prison. Sentencing of the disgraced financier is scheduled for June 29.
  

Quick Overview

• The World Bank expects world GDP to fall 2.9% in 2009, worse than the 1.7% predicted in March. They expect U.S. GDP to fall 3% and 4.5% in Europe.
  

• Japan's Tankan survey rose from -66.0 to -13.2 in Q2
  

• (Reuters) - The worst of the global economic crisis is over, multi-billionaire financier George Soros told Polish news channel TVN24 on Sunday urging the creation of international regulations to oversee global markets.
  

• The USDA said there were 10.407 million head of cattle on feed as of June 1st, down 3.8% YoY
  

• China imported 337,230 tons of copper in May, a record high that dropped copper to the lowest level in more than two weeks. It was taken as a signal for a peak in demand from the world's biggest consumer of the red metal.
  

• (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is considering creating a utility to replace the Wall Street banks that handle U.S. repo market transactions, the Financial Times reported on Monday,

Don't believe the hyperinflation hype - dare to make cuts
"If Ben Bernanke and his officials are listening to this sort of stuff and taking it seriously, they are making the same mistake as the Fed in the early 1930s," he said. The US "output gap" is near 7pc. That is a powerful lid on inflation.

Quick Overview

• California's unemployment rate climbed to 11.5% in May
  

• Moody's issued a downgrade warning to California.
  

• YoY Thailand's exports fell 26.6% to $11.7 billion
  

• Mexico cut interest rates to 4.75 %
  

• Canada’s retail sales fell 0.8% in April.

• (WSJ) The U.S. and Switzerland agreed to share information on potential tax evaders.

• (WSJ) Chinese regulators have ordered Google to suspend search services for foreign Web sites via its Chinese Web site, a Xinhua report said.
  

• (Reuters) - A "distressingly slow" U.S. housing recovery, with inflation-adjusted home values expected to decline over the next five years, makes it unlikely that housing wealth will drive consumer spending in the next decade, a Reuters/University of Michigan survey found.
  
  
  

China’s Suntech, Denmark’s Vestas Bet on Obama’s Green Energy
“Most of the renewable energy industry worldwide believes that the U.S. will within the next three years become the largest market in the world for solar,” Efird, president of Suntech America, said in an interview.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 3,000 last week to 608,000.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -22.6 to -2.2.
  

• U.S. index of leading indicators rose 1.2% in May.
  

• The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecast for China from 6.5% to 7.2%
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.1%
  

• U.K. retail sales fell 0.6% in May and 1.6% YoY
  

Suitcase With $134 Billion Puts Dollar on Edge: William Pesek

The implications of the securities being legitimate would be bigger than investors may realize. At a minimum, it would suggest that the U.S. risks losing control over its monetary supply on a massive scale.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Labor Department said that consumer prices rose 0.1% in May, but fell 1.3% YoY
  

• U.K. unemployment rate out at 7.2%
  

• Construction output in the EU rose 0.7% in April.
  

• FedEx's CEO Frederick Smith predicted that the worst of the recession is behind us.
  

• Guangdong's April EU imports rose 33.4% MoM
  

• Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority reported a 20.2% drop in container movement in May.
  

• Hong Kong reported a 12.1% drop in container movement in May.
  

• The U.S. DoE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.9 million barrels to 357.7 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 600,000 barrels.
  Distillate inventories rose by 0.3 million barrels.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.1%

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices rose 0.2% in May but fell 5.0YoY
  

• U.S. housing starts rose 17.2% MoM.
  

• U.S. industrial production fell1.1% in May
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 0.7% in May
  
  

• YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 2.2% in May
  
  

• Canada’s productivity rose 0.3% in Q1
  

• The real cost of living for British families has fallen by 10% since this time last year according to figures compiled for The Telegraph.
  

• (Spiegel) A German-led consortium wants to fund an international solar-energy plan to the tune of €400 billion. The idea is to gather solar heat in North Africa and send the electricity to Europe. If it works, it would be the largest green-energy project in the world.

Quick Overview

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -4.4 to -9.4 in June.
  

• (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs senior investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on Monday that risk aversion has eased, while inventory rebuilding and new business spending bode well for an economic recovery that could provide a dramatic surge in corporate profits by year end.
  

• The American recession will be less deep and shorter than initially predicted according to the IMF.

• The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy for the second straight month, and left the overnight lending rate at 0.1 %
  
  

• 142.2 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in May, 6% more than in April and more than expected. Soybean crush must average only 125 million bushels per month in June, August and September to reach the USDA target; which is 10 million below the seasonal pace.
  
  

• The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world coffee production at 127.4 million bags and usage at 132.2 million bags, putting ending stocks at 35.3 million bags or 27% of use. The USDA expects 2010 ending stocks at 13 million bags.
  

• Cautious comments from Chinese premier Wen Jibao over the durability of economic recovery in the world's third largest economy weighed on investor enthusiasm.

The crucifixion of Latvia
We know from leaked documents that the Fund advised Latvia to ditch the peg last year. IMF experts were overruled by Brussels. The reason, of course, was to prevent: 1) a chain of falling dominoes in Eastern Europe; 2) a default shock for West European banks with $1.6 trillion (£970bn) of exposure to the region; 3) leakage from Bulgaria across the EU line into Greece – euroland's Achilles heel.