Suitcase With $134 Billion Puts Dollar on Edge: William Pesek

The implications of the securities being legitimate would be bigger than investors may realize. At a minimum, it would suggest that the U.S. risks losing control over its monetary supply on a massive scale.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Labor Department said that consumer prices rose 0.1% in May, but fell 1.3% YoY
  

• U.K. unemployment rate out at 7.2%
  

• Construction output in the EU rose 0.7% in April.
  

• FedEx's CEO Frederick Smith predicted that the worst of the recession is behind us.
  

• Guangdong's April EU imports rose 33.4% MoM
  

• Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority reported a 20.2% drop in container movement in May.
  

• Hong Kong reported a 12.1% drop in container movement in May.
  

• The U.S. DoE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.9 million barrels to 357.7 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 600,000 barrels.
  Distillate inventories rose by 0.3 million barrels.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.1%

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices rose 0.2% in May but fell 5.0YoY
  

• U.S. housing starts rose 17.2% MoM.
  

• U.S. industrial production fell1.1% in May
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 0.7% in May
  
  

• YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 2.2% in May
  
  

• Canada’s productivity rose 0.3% in Q1
  

• The real cost of living for British families has fallen by 10% since this time last year according to figures compiled for The Telegraph.
  

• (Spiegel) A German-led consortium wants to fund an international solar-energy plan to the tune of €400 billion. The idea is to gather solar heat in North Africa and send the electricity to Europe. If it works, it would be the largest green-energy project in the world.

Quick Overview

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -4.4 to -9.4 in June.
  

• (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs senior investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on Monday that risk aversion has eased, while inventory rebuilding and new business spending bode well for an economic recovery that could provide a dramatic surge in corporate profits by year end.
  

• The American recession will be less deep and shorter than initially predicted according to the IMF.

• The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy for the second straight month, and left the overnight lending rate at 0.1 %
  
  

• 142.2 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in May, 6% more than in April and more than expected. Soybean crush must average only 125 million bushels per month in June, August and September to reach the USDA target; which is 10 million below the seasonal pace.
  
  

• The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world coffee production at 127.4 million bags and usage at 132.2 million bags, putting ending stocks at 35.3 million bags or 27% of use. The USDA expects 2010 ending stocks at 13 million bags.
  

• Cautious comments from Chinese premier Wen Jibao over the durability of economic recovery in the world's third largest economy weighed on investor enthusiasm.

The crucifixion of Latvia
We know from leaked documents that the Fund advised Latvia to ditch the peg last year. IMF experts were overruled by Brussels. The reason, of course, was to prevent: 1) a chain of falling dominoes in Eastern Europe; 2) a default shock for West European banks with $1.6 trillion (£970bn) of exposure to the region; 3) leakage from Bulgaria across the EU line into Greece – euroland's Achilles heel.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose from 68.7 to 69.0
  
  

• EU industrial production fell 21.6% YoY.
  

• China's retail sales rose 15.2% YoY.
  

• YoY India’s Industrial production rose 1.4% in April
  

• Retail sales in New Zealand rose 0.5% in April.
  

• OPEC expects world oil demand to average 83.8 million barrels per day in 2009, down from last month's estimate of 84.0 mbd.
  

• Crude oil stored on offshore tankers fell 16% in the past two weeks to about 67 million barrels.
  

• Crude oil exports from Iraq reached 2.4 million barrels per day, their highest level since after the U.S.-led invasion.

US cities may have to be bulldozed in order to survive Dozens of US cities may have entire neighbourhoods bulldozed as part of drastic "shrink to survive" ..

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in May, the first gain in three months -- much of the gain was due to higher gas prices.
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 24,000 last week to 601,000.
  

• China’s copper imports rose 6% in May
  

• China’s urban fixed-asset investment (building railways, oil pipelines, low cost housing) rose 32.9%.
  

• Boeing projects a market for 29,000 new commercial airplanes valued at $3.2 trillion over next 20 years. They project strong global demand, more efficient commercial airplanes in response to high fuel prices, aging fleets and environmental concerns.
  

• (Spiegel) The Schönbrunn Zoo in Vienna has launched an art installation that puts its animal’s side-by-side with symbols of humanity's trashing of the environment -- including abandoned cars, rusty bathtubs and toxic waste.

• (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu, causing mostly mild disease outbreaks on four continents, prompted the World Health Organization to declare the first influenza pandemic since 1968

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 as Bank Seizures Loom
Additional U.S. home foreclosures will probably total 6.4 million by mid-2011, and inventories of foreclosed homes awaiting sale will probably peak in mid-2010 at about 2 million properties, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by John Sim wrote in a June 5 report. U.S. prices will likely drop 39 percent on average, they said.

IMF Says New Bonds Not Likely to Be Sold on Secondary Market
Treasury yields climbed this year and the dollar fell in part on concern that foreign central banks would reduce holdings of U.S. financial assets just as the Obama administration sells a record amount of debt to finance a growing budget deficit and pull the economy from the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit widened to $29.16 billion in April. Exports fell $2.8 billion to $121.1 billion while imports fell $2.2 billion to $150.3 billion.
  


• (Bloomberg) -- Russia may switch some of its reserves from U.S. Treasuries to International Monetary Fund bonds, the central bank said today.
  


• China's May Producer Price Index fell 7.2% YoY
  

• China's May Purchasing Price Index fell 10.4% YoY.

• YoY China's exports fell 26.4 % in May
  

• Korea kept its interest rate unchanged at an all-time low of 2% for a fourth consecutive month.
  

• Australia's unemployment rose to 5.7% percent from a revised 5.5 % – better than expected.

• Japan's April Machine orders fell 32.8% YoY

• 
  China's May Consumer Price Index fell 1.4% YoY

• USDA’s 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimates:
  Corn was lowered from 1.145 to 1.090 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were lowered from 230 to 210 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 637 to 647 million bushels.
  Sugar was raised from 289,000 to 459,000 tons.
  Cotton was unchanged at 5.60 million bales.

• The Department of Agriculture said by August 31 soybean stocks would fall to 110m bushels, the lowest since stocks dropped to 103m bushels in 1976-77.
  

• USDA’s 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimates:
  Corn was lowered from 128 to 125 million tons.
  Soybeans were lowered from 52 to 51 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 182 to 183 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million tons.
  


• The USDA raised its estimate of the 2008-2009 Florida orange crop from 158 to 160 million boxes. The juice yield was raised from 1.65 to 1.66 gallons per box.

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 4.4 million barrels to 361.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.6 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 800,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 86.3% to 85.9%.
  YoY Gasoline demand rose 0.4%
  YoY distillate demand fell 8.4%.
  

The depression quietly deepens
How can it do so when the velocity of circulation has collapsed, and unemployment is rising everywhere? The Fed's "monetary multiplier" ended last week at 0.867, half its average of 1.7 over the last decade. The credit mechanism is still broken. This is what happened in Japan in its Lost Decade.

Quick Overview

• (FT) Defaults on US commercial mortgages could hit 4.1 per cent by the end of the second quarter, their highest level since the 1992 recession, according to Real Estate Econometrics, a property research firm.
  

• Australia's consumer sentiment index rose 12.7% to 100.1

• China's vehicle sales rose 34% in May to 1.12 million,
  

• YoY Germany's exports fell 29% in April
  

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy probably will emerge from the recession by September, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said.
  

• YoY Corporate bankruptcies in Japan fell 6.7% in May.
  

• The USDA said:
  97% of the corn crop is planted and 69% is rated good to excellent.
  78% of the soybean crop is planted (The five-year average is 87%)
  96% of the spring wheat crop is planted and 72% is rated good to excellent.
  44% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent.
  89% of the cotton crop is planted (The five-year average is90%)
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate rose from 8.9% to 9.4%. Non-farm payrolls fell a smaller than expected 345,000.
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 8.0% to 8.4% in May,
  

• Japan's capital spending fell 25.4%

• Shanghai monthly trade value rose 3.7% MoM, but fell 26% YoY
  
  

• (Spiegel) Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, is reporting the country's economy will contract by 6.2 percent in 2009 as a result of the global economic crisis. A recovery is expected to start in 2010, but economists warn Germany will struggle at least until 2013.

• University of Illinois projects this year's corn crop at 11.3 bln bu on a yield of 148.6 bu per acre. That would require rationing. Arlan Suderman Farm Futures

Financial regulator seeks powers to curb excess speculation Gensler's proposals seek to curb excessive speculation in these complex markets. They'd standardize many contracts and have them clear on an exchange, much like regulated products on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 4,000 last week to 621,000
  

• U.S. non-farm productivity increased 1.6% QoQ and 1.9% YoY
  

• Retail sales volume in the EU area rose 0.5% MOM, but fell 1.4% YoY.
  

• France's unemployment rate rose from 7.6% to 8.7%
  

• Canada kept interest rates unchanged
  

• England kept interest rates unchanged
  

• European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged
  

• (Reuters) - Medical bills are behind more than 60 percent of U.S. personal bankruptcies, U.S. researchers reported Thursday in a report they said demonstrates that healthcare reform is on the wrong track.
  

• (Spiegel) Two male penguins at a zoo in Bremerhaven, Germany -- who have been a pair for years -- have hatched and raised an abandoned chick as their own.

Latvian debt crisis shakes Eastern Europe
Latvia faces a calamitous hangover after blazing the trail of euro, Swiss franc, and yen mortgages. Fitch Ratings says foreign debt maturing in 2009 is equal to 320pc of foreign reserves.

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded a cautiously upbeat note on the U.S. economy on Wednesday but warned that corralling government debt was vital to ensuring the nation's long-term health.

• Australia's GDP rose 0.4%.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said;
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.9 million barrels to 366.0 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 200,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 85.1% to 86.3%.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 8.8% YoY.

Quick Overview

• Pending sales of existing homes in the U.S. rose 6.7% in April -- the biggest monthly gain in over seven years
  

• Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.0%,
  

• The unemployment rate in the EU rose from 8.4% to 8.6% in April,
  

• Manufacturing index in the Euro zone rose from 36.8 to 40.7

• Up to 50% of the Canadian Prairies wheat belt faces serious moisture shortages. Arlan Suderman (Farm Futures)
  

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Citigroup Inc. were removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replaced by Cisco Systems Inc. and Travelers Cos., after the first global recession in 70 years crippled their earnings and sent their shares down more than 90 percent.
  
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.5% in April
  

• U.S. Consumer spending fell 0.1%.
  

• The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 42.8 from 40.1 in April.
  

• U.S. construction spending rose 0.8%
  

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.3%
  

• YoY Canada’s PPI fell 0.5%.
  

• U.K. manufacturing rose to 45.4 from 43.1
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 0.3% in April
  

• China’s manufacturing index dropped from 53.5 to 53.1 in May, but expanded for a third month.
  
  
  

Commodities Head for Biggest Monthly Rally Since July 1974
Signs of a recovery in the global economy have spurred demand for fuel, industrial metals and crops. Crude oil was poised for the biggest monthly gain in a decade, and gasoline has soared more than 30 percent in May. Gold, silver and copper surged, while corn and soybeans reached the highest since September.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. GDP shrank at a 5.7% annual pace in the first quarter.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 65.1 to 68.7
  

• The Institute for Supply Management’s business barometer decreased to 34.9 from 40.1 in April
  
  

• Japan’s retail sales rose 0.6% in April,
  Japan’s unemployment rate rose from 4.8% to 5.0%
  

• India’s GDP rose 5.8% Q1.

• Poland's GDP grew by 0.8% in the first three months of 2009.
  

• U.K. house prices rose 1.2% in May

• Japan Apr. Housing Starts fell 32.4% YoY
  

• Germany Apr. Retail Sales rose 0.5% MoM but fell 0.8% YoY

• Sweden’s Q1 GDP fell 0.9% QoQ
  

• Swiss Leading Indicators fell 1.86 %

• (Bloomberg) -- Starbucks Corp., the world’s largest coffee-shop operator, is pushing some U.S. landlords for as much as a 25 percent reduction in lease rates, taking advantage of a declining real estate market to save on rent.

Quick Overview

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.9% in April -- stronger than expected.
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 13,000 last week to 623,000.
  
  

• YoY Japan's retail sales fell 2.9% in April

• Japan’s industrial production rose 5.2% MoM

• Swiss April Trade Balance out at 2.56B vs. 0.12B in March.

• Germany’s May Unemployment Rate out at 8.2% vs. 8.4% expected and 8.3% in April.
  

• Euro Zone May Consumer Confidence was steady at -31 vs. -30 expected
  

• YoY Russia’s GDP fell 10.5% in April.
  

• South Africa’s lowered its benchmark interest rate by 1% to 7.5%
  

• OPEC met and kept official production levels unchanged
  

• The U.S. mortgage delinquency rate rose to 9.12% and the share of loans entering foreclosure rose to 1.37%.

• According to the U.S. Census Bureau MoM U.S. new home sales rose 0.3%, but fell 34% YoY

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 5.4 million barrels to 363.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 600,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.8% to 85.1%
  Gasoline demand fell 0.4% YoY
• Distillate demand fell 9.9% YoY

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 2.9% MoM

• Malaysia's GDP shrank a sharper-than-expected 6.2% in Q1
  

• YoY Japan's export fell 38.1% in April, but rose 1.9% MoM
  

• A survey of 45 forecasters found three-quarters expect the economic downturn to end by Q3
  

• The USDA said:
  82% of the corn crop was planted, up from 62% last week. The five-year average for this date is 93%.
  48% of the soybean crop was planted, up from 25% last week. The five-year average for this date is 65%.
  79% of the spring wheat crop was planted, up from 50% last week. The five-year average for this date is 95%.
  61% of the cotton crop was planted, up from 42% last week.

• Global oil demand is picking up, supported by higher consumption in China, so said Ali Naimi Saudi Arabia's oil minister – he is predicting $80 oil as economies recover.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer confidence rose from 40.8 to 54.9 in May -- the highest since September.
  

• YoY the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 18.7% in March.
  

• (FT) Speculative bets against the dollar have risen to their highest level since the onset of the financial crisis
  
  

• A total of $162 billion of U.S. treasuries will be auctioned over the next 3 days.

Quick Overview

• Germany’s business climate index rose to 84.2 from 83.7 in April.
  
  

• Colombia’s April coffee production fell 61% to 345,000, versus 886,000 60-kilogram bags in April last year. Total coffee production in Colombia fell 25% YoY. YoY Coffee exports fell 14%.
  
  

• India's Farm Minister said the federal government may extend the deadline for duty-free raw sugar imports beyond July 31. India's sugar output has fallen to 14.7 million tons in the year ending September from 26.3 million tons a year earlier.
  
  

• The right price range for oil is between $60-75 per barrel, Russia's energy minister said.
  

US bonds sale faces market resistance
The Obama administration needs to raise $2 trillion this year to cover the fiscal stimulus plan and the bank bail-outs. It has to fund $900bn by September.

Gold bugs at last have their perfect trinity
China has doubled its bullion reserves and left us in no doubt that it will spend more of its $40bn monthly surplus on hard assets rather than the toxic paper of Western democracies.

FX OUTLOOK-US debt ratings worries to weigh on dollar Bill Gross, manager of Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund, warned on Thursday the United States will eventually lose its top AAA credit rating, a fear that could keep the dollar, stocks and bonds under selling pressure.

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) Stocks rose on Friday as investors snapped up shares of multinational companies, including McDonald's Corp, on hopes that a weaker dollar would underpin profitability

• Canada’s retail sales rose 0.3% in March
  

• U.K.'s GDP fell 1.9% QoQ and 4.1% YoY.
  

• Singapore’s GDP fell 10.1% YoY.
  

• China's copper imports rose 7% MoM and up 149% YoY
  

• The USDA said the U.S. beef production totaled 5.13 billion pounds of beef in April down 5% YoY.
  

• The USDA said the U.S. pork production totaled 1.92 billion pounds in April, down 5% YoY
  

• The USDA expects world sugar ending stocks at 19% of annual use, making it the lowest stocks to use ratio in 16 years.
  

• A report on ethanol predicted world demand for ethanol will rise 9.3% per year for five years.
  

Nomura Says Sell the Dollar as Central Banks Reduce Holdings
The share of Russia’s dollar holdings fell to 41.5 percent of reserves, from 45 percent as of Nov. 1, while the portion of euros rose to 47.5 percent from 44 percent, according to the central bank’s annual report

Quick Overview

• U.S. leading indicators rose 1%, more than forecast.
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 12,000 last week to 631,000.
  

• European manufacturing and services index rose from 41.1 to 43.9
  

• Japan's Trade index of services fell 4%
  

• YOY Mexico’s GDP fell 8.2% in Q!
  

• YoY Taiwan’s GDP fell 10.2% in Q1.

Quick Overview

• YoY Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.4% in April
  

• British manufacturer expectations improved from -32% to -17% in May

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.1 million barrels to 368.5 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 4.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 83.7% to 81.8% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand fell 1.2%
  Distillate demand fell 12.0%
  
  

• The World Gold Council said gold demand was 1,016 tons in Q1, up 38% YoY

• The Apiary Inspectors of America and the USDA issued a study that shows that the U.S. is still losing honey bees at an alarming rate. The survey found that from last September through this April the U.S. lost approximately 29% of honey bee colonies. This is down from a 36% loss in 2007-2008 and the 32% loss in 2006-2007.

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts fell 13% MoM 54% YoY -- weaker than expected.
  

• YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 2.3% in April
  

• Construction output in the EU fell 2.1% MoM and 10.5% YoY
  

• Investor confidence in Germany rose from 13 to 31.1
  

• Arlan Suderman’s Farm Futures model suggests old-crop beans stocks will fall to 9-day supply. Market must ration demand to prevent that from occurring.

• China Shipping Container Lines rose 5.6% as Goldman Sachs said it was turning more positive on the transportation industry.
  

• China’s imports of iron ore, used in steelmaking, jumped 33% in April, setting a record for a third month, the customs office said.
  

• Japan's economy shrank a record 4.0% in Q1.
  

• Ahead of Friday's USDA cattle on feed report, Allendale Inc. sees the total number of cattle on feed down 2.9%, which would be the smallest May 1 total in four years.
  

Baltic Dry Index Up 11 Days in a Row: Should You Care? The Baltic Dry Index is currently riding an eleven-day winning streak during which the index has gained 43%. Year to date, the index is now up 228%. Given that it is a measure of shipping rates, the increase in the Baltic Dry Index is regarded by many as an important indicator of an improving global economy. How this translates to the stock market, however, is unclear.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of homebuilder sentiment rose from 14 to 16 in April.
  

• (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Monday that borrowing costs were falling as credit markets gradually thaw, but warned a painful period lies ahead for American consumers.
  

• The USDA said:
  62% of corn was planted, down from the five-year average of 85%.
  25% of soybeans were planted, down from the five-year average of 44%.
  50% of spring wheat was planted, down from the five year average of 90%.
  42% of cotton was planted, down from the five year average of 53%.

• Emirates Airline is predicting the recession in air freight will bottom out by end of May.
  

Asia will author its own destruction if it triggers a crisis over US bonds
China and Japan together hold 23pc of America's $6,369bn federal debt. This has caused alarm on the US talk radio circuit, but fears of imminent "dollardämmerung" and a collapse of American economic power may prove far off the mark. Who ultimately holds a gun to the head of whom?

The Case of the Missing H-Bomb
By JEFFREY ST. CLAIR
Things go missing. It's to be expected. Even at the Pentagon. Last October, the Pentagon's inspector general reported that the military's accountants had misplaced a destroyer, several tanks and armored personnel carriers, hundreds of machine guns, rounds of ammo, grenade launchers and some surface-to-air missiles. In all, nearly $8 billion in weapons were AWOL.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in April and down 0.7% YoY
  

• U.S. industrial production fell 0.5% in April
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 65.1 to 67.9
  

• The N.Y. Federal Reserve regional index of manufacturing rose from -14.65 to -4.55.
  

• (Reuters) - General Motors Corp said Friday it will drop about 1,600 U.S. dealers as it struggles to slash billions of dollars in operating costs and debt ahead of an anticipated bankruptcy filing by the end of the month.
  

• GDP in the Euro area fell 2.5% QoQ and down 4.6% YoY
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 0.6% YoY
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales fell 2.7% in March
  

• Germany’s GDP fell 3.8% in Q1
  

• GDP in France fell 1.2% Q1.
  

• GDP in Hong Kong fell 4.3% in Q1.
  

• The International Sugar Organization expects a 2009-2010, world production deficit of 4.75 million tons.
  

• (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama on Friday revived the system of Guantanamo military trials for foreign terrorism suspects, angering supporters who said he had broken a promise to end the controversial tribunals set up by the Bush administration.

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices rose 0.3% in April, but fell 3.7% YoY -- the biggest YoY decline in 59 years.
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose by 32,000 to 637,000 last week.
  

• US carmaker Chrysler tells a bankruptcy court that it plans to close 789 of its 3,200 dealerships.
  
  

• The number of home loans in the UK rose by 29% in March, according to lenders.
  

Chinese Stimulus, Lending May Drive Rebound as Exports Slide
Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said yesterday that China may emerge “a winner” from the global crisis because the nation is buffered by a high savings rate and the government “has taken very rapid action.”

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales fell 0.4% in April.
  

• RealtyTrac said there were 342,038 U.S. foreclosures in April, up 32% YoY.
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area fell 2.0% MoM and 20.2% YoY
  

• YoY China's industrial output rose 7.3% in April
  

• (Reuters) - The U.S. financial system has already completed a big part of the painful adjustment away from its excessively leveraged state, and lending is starting to improve, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit widened in March, the gap expanded 5.5% to $27.6 billion, up from $26.1 billion in February.
  
  

• The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks of:
  Corn at 1.145 billion bushels, down from 1.600 billion bushels in 2008-2009.
  Soybeans at 230 million bushels, up from 130 million bushels in 2008-2009.
  Wheat at 637 million bushels, down from 669 million bushels in 2008-2009.
  Sugar at 289,000 tons, down from 1.192 million tons in 2008-2009.
  Cotton at 5.6 million bales, down from 6.8 million bales in 2008-2009.
  

• The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn at 128 million tons, down from 140 million tons in 2008-2009.
  Soybeans at 52 million tons, up from 43 million tons in 2008-2009.
  Wheat at 182 million tons, up from 167 million tons in 2008-2009.
  Cotton at 58 million bales, down from 62 million bales in 2008-2009.

Enjoy the rally while it lasts - but expect to take a sucker punch
If we are spared – still a big if – we can thank a handful of central bank governors and policy-makers who tore up the rule book, defied tabloid opinion, and took revolutionary action in the nick of time.

Quick Overview

• Consumer prices in China fell 1.5% YoY
  

• Chinese spot steel prices rose 2.8% this week in the second consecutive weekly gain, on growing recovery expectations.
  

• GDP in Latvia fell 18% YoY
  

• The ICCO forecast that global Cocoa grindings would fall 6% in the year to September 2009 compared with a previous estimate for a decline of 2.1%. Global output is forecast to fall 7 % this year, resulting in a supply deficit of between 80,000 and 90,000 tonnes.
• The USDA said:
• 48% of the corn was planted, versus 71% average
• 14% of the soybean crop was planted, ver. 25% average
• 35% of the spring wheat was planted, ver. 78% average
• 32% of the cotton was planted, ver. 39%. Average

• Very little planted East of Iowa in the past week & the 5-day rain forecast gives little hope that this will change.
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 8.5% to 8.9% in April

• U.S. employers cut 539,000 jobs in April, after a 699,000 loss in March, the Labor Department said.
  

• U.S. Wholesale sales fell 2.4% MoM and down 18.1% YoY
  
  

• Canada‘s unemployment rate unchanged at 8.0%
  

• Canada's Mortgage and Housing Corporation said housing starts fell 20% MoM
  

• U.K. producer prices rose 0.6%.
  

• Vehicle sales in China rose 25% in April
  

• The Port of Shanghai’s foreign trade value fell 25% YoY, but rose 34% February to March.

Swine flu could protect against deadly mutation: experts
The global outbreak of swine flu hovering just below the pandemic threshold could provide immunity for those already infected if the virus mutates into a more deadly form, scientists have told AFP.

ECB to buy billions of euros of debt in radical policy departure
The ECB has faced fierce criticism that it's not doing enough to combat a recession that is hitting export-led economies including Germany as much as economies - such as Ireland and Spain - where housing bubbles have burst in spectacular fashion. The policy departure also represents a defeat for Germany, where Axel Weber, the head of the Bundesbank, has resisted any move to buy debt.

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the ECB unanimously agreed on a 60 billion- euro ($80.5 billion) plan to buy bonds as officials step up their response to the worst recession since World War II.

• (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve determined that 10 U.S. banks need to raise a total of $74.6 billion in capital, concluding its unprecedented probe of the health of the nation’s 19 largest lenders.
  

• U.S. jobless claims fell 34,000 last week to 601,000.

• U.S. non-farm productivity rose 0.8% QoQ and 1.8% YoY.
  

• U.S. Unit labor costs rose 2.4%. The # of hours worked in the first quarter fell 9%.
  

• Denmark lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.35% to a record low 1.65%

• Australia’s unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.4%
  

• The ECB lowered its interest rate from 1.25% to 1.00%.
  

• England kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.
  

• Obama aims to cut $17bn from next year's budget, saying he had found examples of "stunning" waste.
  
  

• China's main ports received 15.3 million tonnes or 3.72 million barrels per day of imported crude oil in April -- up 9% YoY.
  

• China has approved a plan to set up 10 million tonnes of refined fuel reserves by 2011 -- about two weeks of current consumption.