Are We Organisms Or Living
Ecosystems?
There's a growing consensus among scientists that the relationship between us and the 100 trillion bacterial microbes in our bodies (outnumbering our human cells 10 to one) is a two-way street

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 53,000 last week to 610,000
  

• U.S. housing starts were at an annual rate of 510,000 in March, down 10.8% MoM and down 48.4% YoY
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -35.0 to -24.4 in February.
  
  

• Canada's manufacturing sales rose 2.2% in February
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area fell 2.3% in February and 18.4% YoY
  

• Growth of China's GDP slowed to 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009, the weakest since 1992
  

• The USDA's expects beef exports to be down 4% in 2009.
  

• The USDA expects pork exports to be down 13% in 2009
  

• The number of idle containerships worldwide has fallen from 1.42 million to 1.31 million TEU the first drop since September.
  

A 'Copper Standard' for the world's currency system?
Hard money enthusiasts have long watched for signs that China is switching its foreign reserves from US Treasury bonds into gold bullion. They may have been eyeing the wrong metal.

Why is Goldman Sachs So Scared of Mike Morgan?
MW: What is the nature of the relationship between G-Sax and the political establishment in Washington?
Morgan: If I answered that question I would need to increase the thickness of my Kevlar body suit.

Quick Overview

• U.S. CPI fell 0.1% in March and 0.4% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% MoM and 1.8% YoY.
  

• The New York Fed's regional index of manufacturing rose from -38.2 to - 14.7
  

• U.S. industrial production fell 1.5% in March.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
• Supplies of crude oil rose 5.6 million barrels to 366.7 million barrels
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline fell 900,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 700,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 81.8% to 80.4%.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 6.7% YoY.

• Coal stocks at U.S. power plants rose 1% WoW and 17.1 YoY. Electric companies had 164.3 million short tons of coal stockpiled, compared with 162.7 million tons reported last Tuesday and 140.2 million tons the same week last year.
  

• Russia’s Gazprom estimates its end-2008 reserves at 217.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, the company said, representing an increase of 11% from 2007, when Gazprom's reserves were 196.4 billion.
  

• UBS , raised its shareholdings in China Shipping Container Lines to 6.97% from the previous 4.5%.
  

• Chinese manufacturers at Asia’s biggest export fair say orders are starting to recover.

• Ukrainian industrial production fell 30.4%, the eighth consecutive decline.

• Zinc rose to the highest level in six months on speculation demand is increasing in China.
  

Cross Your Fingers and Carry On I just don’t get it. Let’s assume that there is only a 10% chance that the International Energy Agency and everybody else predicting that global oil supplies will soon peak or plateau are right. That still makes peak oil about 100,000 times more likely than a smallpox outbreak in the United Kingdom.

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices fell 1.2% in March and 3.5% YoY.
  
  

• U.S. retail sales fell 1.1% in March vs. expected 0.2% rise
  
  
  

• Bernanke sees signs economic decline leveling out.
  
  

• Undeterred, Somali pirates hijacked three more ships.

• Germany joins France, Austria, Hungary, Greece and Luxembourg in banning the cultivation of GM corn, claiming that Monsanto’s MON 810 is dangerous for the environment.

• The world could run out of oil in 20 years. This grim scenario is not the prediction of environmentalists, but of Michel Mallet, the general manager of French energy giant Total's German operations.
  
  

Cash Beats Stocks for First Time in U.S. Survey
Investors had a record 45 percent of assets in cash, including money-market investments, and a record-low equity allocation of 41 percent in March, according to the survey data. Historical averages are 25 percent and 60 percent, respectively.

Obama Opposes Right for Detainees in U.S. Military Prisons to Challenge Their Detention
After seeking adopting Bush positions on unlawful surveillance last week, President Obama has adopted another controversial Bush policy: opposing basic legal rights for detainees held in U.S. military prison in Afghanistan. Some of the most egregious allegations of torture and abuse have focused on such prisons as the one at Bagram Air base. President Obama is now claiming that access to courts and review in such cases would threaten national security.

Quick Overview

• YoY Japan’s producer prices fell 2.2% in March
  

• China's official Purchasing Managers Index rose to 52.4 in March from 49.0 in February -- the first time the index has been expanding since September.

• Industrial output in China rose 8.3% in March

• YoY China's currency reserves grew by 16% in the first quarter. This puts China's currency reserves at US$1.9537 Trillion
  

• MoM Chinese copper imports rose 14 % to a record 374,957 metric tons.
  

• China, may import corn from the U.S. as prices are now competitive compared with local supplies Chinas National Grain and Oils Information Center said.
  

• India ended its 60% import duty on sugar in an effort to relieve a shortage at home.

Quick Overview

• April 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s new lending surged more than sixfold from a year earlier to a record 1.89 trillion yuan ($277 billion) in March, adding to signs that growth in the world’s third-biggest economy is gathering pace. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, grew 25.5 percent, the central bank said.
  
  

• MoM US air freight fell 21% in February, the lowest industry level in eight years.
  
  

• Chinese rail cargo volume fell 4.8% in January.
  

• Thousands of homes in Florida are believed to contain potentially toxic Chinese drywall, officials said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 20,000 last week to 654,000.
  

• The Commerce Department reported the U.S. trade deficit fell to $26 billion from a revised $36 billion in January.
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 7.7% to 8.0% in March
  

• The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was lowered from 1.74 to 1.70 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were lowered from 185 to 165 million bushels.
  Wheat was reduced from 712 to 696 million bushels.
  Sugar was increased from 981,000 to 1.29 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 7.3 to 6.7 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 145 to 143 million tons.
  Soybeans were lowered from 50 to 46 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 156 to 158 million tons.
  Cotton was raised to 63 million bales.
  

• The USDA reduced its guess of Argentina's soybean crop from 43 to 39 million tons
  
  

• The USDA increased its estimate of 2009 beef production to 26.44 billion pounds,
  

• The USDA reduced its estimate of 2009 pork production to 22.775 billion pounds, down 2% YoY.
  

Worldwide shipping rates set to tumble 74%
“We expect industry fundamentals [for bulk carriers] to deteriorate further as demand continues to remain weak and the large order book begins to be delivered,” wrote Nomura’s Andrew Lee in a note to clients. On container shipping, the outlook is similarly miserable: “International routes are loss-making and are likely to remain so,” he said.

Quick Overview

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications rose 4.7%.
  

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.6% MoM, but fell14.3%YoY
  

• U.S. wholesale inventories fell 1.5% in February and down 1.7% YoY
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
• Supplies of crude oil rose 1.7 million barrels to 361.1 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 600,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.7% to 81.8% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.2% from YoY
  Distillate demand fell 7.2% YoY.
  

• Australia’s consumer sentiment rose 8.3% in April.
  Australia reduced its interest rate from 3.25% to 3.00%,
  

• Iceland reduced its interest rate from 17.0% to 15.5%.

• As of end of February, northeastern China's port of Qingdao has handled 1.64 million TEU during this year, up 2.2% compared to the same period in 2008, Xinhua reported.
  

• Japanese machinery orders rose 1.4%.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Prime Minister Taro Aso may unveil a 15.4 trillion yen stimulus package ($154 billion) to help revive an economy headed toward the worst recession since World War II.
  

• Australia’s jobless rate rose in March to 5.7% from 5.2%.
  
  

Is Governor Zhou a closet Bernanke-ite?
..Notice to my students: learn more about how to resolve and restructure bad loans. This will be a great career option for you over the next few years.

Updates resume April 8

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rose from 8.1% to 8.5% in March, pushing total job losses since the recession started 16 months ago past five million.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services fell from 41.6 to 40.8 in March
  

• An index of services in the U.K. rose from 43.2 to 45.5 in March.
  

• Indonesia reduced its interest rate from 7.75% to 7.50%.
  

• Median salary and bonuses for the CEOs of 200 big U.S. companies fell 8.5% to $2.24 million last year.
  
  

• (Reuters) - The Obama Administration on Friday said they expect the economy to begin turning the corner by the end of the year with job growth coming some months after that.
  
  
  

The G20 moves the world a step closer to a global currency The world is a step closer to a global currency, backed by a global central bank, running monetary policy for all humanity.

Quick Overview

• Chinas Purchasing Manager’s Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.4 in March from 49 in February

• (Reuters) - Leaders of the G20 nations agreed on Thursday to pump an additional trillion dollars into the troubled global economy through extra funding for groups like the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

• U.S. jobless claims rose 12,000 last week to 669,000
  
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.8% in February.

• The American Trucking Associations' advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose by 1.7% in February, marking the second MoM increase in a row.
  

• Russia's economy shrank by 7% in the first quarter of 2009
  
  
  

• The European Central Bank reduced its interest rate from 1.50% to 1.25
  

• U.K. home prices rose 0.9% in March
  
  

• (Bloomberg) -- The Financial Accounting Standards Board, pressured by U.S. lawmakers and financial companies, voted to relax fair-value rules that Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. say don’t work when markets are inactive.
  The changes to so-called mark-to-market accounting allow companies to use “significant” judgment when gauging the price of some investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securities. Analysts say the measure may reduce banks’ writedowns and boost their first-quarter net income by 20 percent or more. FASB voted on the rules at a meeting today in Norwalk, Connecticut..

• Shanghais February trade value fell 30.6% YoY to US$28.96 billion, the fourth consecutive month of decline, Xinhua reported

• According to a survey by London’s Barclays Plc., almost 41%, or 436,000, of Singapore’s households will have assets of at least $1 million by 2017, compared with 39% in Hong Kong and 28% in Switzerland

Quick Overview

• ADP said U.S. employers cut jobs by a record 742,000 in Feb.

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing rose from 35.8 to 36.3 in March

• The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending U.S. home sales rose 2.1% in February
  

• Unemployment rate in the Euro area rose from 8.3% to 8.5% in February

• Australia Feb. Building Approvals rose 7.8% MoM
  
  

• Germany Feb. Retail Sales fell -0.2% MoM and -5.3% YoY
  

• Australia's retail sales fell 2% in February
  

• Japan's Tankan survey of business sentiment fell from -24 to a new record low of -58
  

• China Purchasing Managers Index fell to 44.8 in March from 45.1

• The global container shipping industry is showing signs of improving in the second quarter, United Arab Shipping Company told Emirates Business.

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels last week to 359.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 82.0% to 81.7%.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 9.1% YoY.
  

Website of the Day

Quick Overview

• YoY the S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices in 20 cities fell 19% in January
  

• The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence rose from 25.3 to 26.0 in March
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's Chicago purchasing managers' index fell from 34.2 to 31.4 in March.
  
  

• Japans jobless rate rose to 4.4% last month from 4.1% in January. Some 77% of jobless people aren’t getting unemployment benefits, the highest figure among Group of Seven nations except Italy.
  

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.7% in January and down 2.4% YoY.
  

• Germany’s unemployment rate rose from 8.0% to 8.1% in March
  

• Consumer confidence in the U.K. improved from -35 to -30,
  
  

• The USDA said March 1st stocks of:
  Corn totaled 6.96 billion bushels, up 1% YoY.
  Soybeans totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 9% YoY.
  Wheat totaled 1.04 billion bushels, up 46% YoY.
  

• The USDA said, in 2009, U.S. farmers intend to plant:
  84.99 million acres of corn, down 1% YoY.
  76.02 million acres of soybeans.
  58.64 million acres of wheat, down 7% YoY
  8.81 million acres of cotton, down 7% YoY.

Quick Overview

• Global stock markets dived today after the White House denied General Motors and Chrysler multi-billion dollar bailouts and threatened to push the carmakers into bankruptcy.
  
  

• MoM Japanese industrial output fell 9.4% in February
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Japanese companies cut inventories at an unprecedented pace in February and said they would increase production in coming months, indicating the worst of the country’s manufacturing slump may be over.
  

• Economic sentiment in the Euro area fell from 65.3 to 64.6 in March
  

• Australia's new home sales rose 3.9% in February

• Soros said on Saturday it was "conceivable" that Britain would have to resort to a bailout from the International Monetary Fund
  

• The USDA said there were 65.389 million head of hogs on March 1st, down 2.7% YoY.
  

• China's ambassador to the U.K. said Beijing isn't calling for a new global reserve currency to replace the dollar.
  

• The World Bank has given warning of serious social discontent in Russia after delivering a bleak assessment of the country's economy.
  
  
  

Only a united front at the London G20 can save the world from ruin
The risk is that this G20 becomes the defining moment when a disgusted American political class – sorely provoked – turns its back on the open trading system. The US alone has the strategic depth to clear its own path, and might find eager partners in a "pro-growth bloc" – much as Britain led a reflation bloc behind Imperial Preference in the early 1930s. As the world's top exporters, Germany and China should take great care to restrain their body language this week.

Quick Overview

• U.S. personal incomes fell 0.2% in February
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.2%.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 56.3 to 57.3 in March
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area fell 3.4% MoM and down 34% YoY
  

• U.K. GDP was down 1.6% in Q4
  

• YoY Japan retail sales fell 5.8% in February
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP fell at a 6.3% annual rate in Q4.
  

• U.S. Jobless claims rose 8,000 last week to 652,000.
  

• Canada’s lumber production fell 23% YoY
  

• YoY U.K. retail sales rose 0.4% in February
  

• Mary Schapiro told the Senate Banking Committee she is drafting proposals to toughen oversight on everything from money-market funds to investment advisers.

• (Bloomberg) -- Chinese solar stocks rose the most ever in New York trading after China, the world’s biggest greenhouse-gas emitter, introduced a subsidy to promote the use of alternative energy.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Durables orders rose 3.4% in February, stronger than expected . Excluding transportation orders rose 3.9%
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications rose 32% last week
  

• The U.K. must do whatever is necessary to resume growth, with deflation the main concern in the short term, Gordon Brown said.
  

• German business sentiment fell from 82.6 to 82.1 in March
  

• YoY Japan's exports fell 50% in February
  

• (WSJ) The 25 highest-earning hedge-fund managers received a combined $11.6 billion in pay in 2008.
  

• (WSJ) California's jobless rate will climb to a staggering 11.9 percent between April and June next year, and double-digit unemployment will linger in the most populous U.S. state at least through 2011, according to a new economic forecast.

Website of the Day

The Big Takeover
..There is a reason it used to be a crime in the Confederate states to teach a slave to read: Literacy is power. In the age of the CDS and CDO, most of us are financial illiterates..

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• The notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks decreased $6.3 trillion in the third quarter, or 3%, to $175.8 trillion.
  
  Notional Amount: The nominal or face amount that is used to calculate payments made on swaps and other risk management products. This amount generally does not change hands and is thus referred to as notional.

• Fourth quarter U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT = $14,2 trillion

Quick Overview

• The Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -51 to -20 in March -- better than expected.
  

• YoY U.K.'s consumer prices rose 3.2% in February.
  

• The world outgrew the gold standard decades ago. But a "paper gold" standard might be one way out of the global financial crisis. Zhou Xiaochuan governor of China's central bank said.

• (Bloomberg) -- The Shanghai Futures Exchange will begin trading steel contracts on March 27 after an eight-year preparation, helping steelmakers hedge against financial risks.

Quick Overview

• MoM U.S. existing home sales rose 5.1% at their fastest pace in nearly six years. The inventory of existing homes for sale rose 5.2 percent to 3.80 million. Unsold homes on the market represented 9.7 months’ worth at the current sales pace. YoY the median price fell 15.5% to $165,400.
  
  

• The Obama's administration has unveiled a plan designed to give the ailing economy a boost by luring private investors into taking over up to 1 trillion in "toxic" assets.
  

• Canada’s leading indicators fell 1.1% in February
  

• Construction output rose 1.3% in the Euro area but fell 9.1% YoY.
  

• Argentine farmers plan to halt sales of soybeans/corn for a week to protest against export taxes.

From now on, think of the US as a bigger Zimbabwe
For readers who may not know, Mr Gono is governor of the Central Bank of Zimbabwe. He'll be feeling particularly pious this weekend – as the mighty US has, indeed, just started printing money. We're supposed to call it "quantitative easing", I know. But if Mr Gono can tell it as it is, why can't we?

A gold bubble may well be coming our way
In the stagflationary conditions of 1980, the gold price peaked at $875, the equivalent of $2,300 today. However the rise to 1980’s inflation levels was gradual; monetary policy in the 1970s was only moderately over-expansive and the US fiscal deficit was modest by current standards.

Including the Fed’s March 18 announcement of further monetary stimulus, monetary and fiscal policies in the US and globally are far more inflationary than in the 1970s. Consequently, there’s a real threat that if inflation returns, it will do so violently.

Quick Overview

• Canada’s retail sales rose 1.9%
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area fell 3.5% in January
  

• Mexico’s cut the lending rate to 6.75%
  

• (Reuters) - U.S. congressional analysts are expected on Friday to forecast even more red ink than expected, a record $1.8 trillion deficit for fiscal 2009..

California February home sales up 42.5 percent February was the eighth straight month that California home sales rose from year-earlier levels and was the first time since May 2007 that the median home price did not decline from the prior month, according to MDA DataQuick

Financial Crisis Caused by a 'Culture of Complicity'
Beyond that, if the situation for the bank is truly hopeless or if the management is truly corrupt, then the incentive is to loot the institution, to take as much money out of it -- e.g. in the shape of bonuses and dividends -- before the true state of the books is discovered.

Naked Short Sales Hint Fraud in Bringing Down Lehman (Update1)
While the commission’s Enforcement Complaint Center received about 5,000 complaints about naked short-selling from January 2007 to June 2008, none led to enforcement actions, according to a report filed yesterday by David Kotz, the agency’s inspector general.

Quick Overview

• March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. plans to spend about $10 million on new offices for Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit and his lieutenants, after the U.S. government injected $45 billion of cash into the bank.

• U.S. jobless claims fell 12,000 last week to 646,000.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -41.3 to -35.0
  

• U.S. leading indicators fell 0.4% in February
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 1.4%.

• The White House is planning up to $5 billion in financing assistance to beleaguered auto-parts suppliers.
  
  

• (Reuters) - General Electric Co expects GE Capital to be profitable this year, though if the economy deteriorates to the Federal Reserve's adverse case, the finance unit could post break-even results, executives said.

Up in arms
..America accounted for 45% of the world's military spending—$1.2 trillion in 2007—more than the next 14 biggest countries combined.

.. 10-Year Treasury Yields Fall Most Since 1962
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks and Treasuries surged and the dollar tumbled after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly announced plans to buy $1 trillion of bonds in an effort to lower consumer borrowing costs and end the recession.

Quick Overview

• (FOMC) ..Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.

• U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% MoM and 0.2% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% in February and up 1.8% YoY.

• U.K. unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from from 6.3% a month ago
  

• Japan intends to buy $18 billion of government bonds this month to support the economy.
  

• Chile's central bank says the nation's economy grew by 3.2 % in 2008 down from 4.7 % growth in 2007.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.0 million barrels to 353.3 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.0 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 82.7% to 82.1% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 1.1% YoY

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts rose 22% MoM better than expected, but fell 47% YoY.
  

• U.S. producer prices rose 0.1% MoM and fell 1.3% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% in February.
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales fell 5.4% MoM.

Quick Overview

• Ben Bernanke predicts that America's worst recession in decades will likely end this year before a recovery gathers steam in 2010.
  

• U.S. industrial production fell 1.4% in February -- the lowest level in seven years.
  

• U.S. capacity utilization fell to 70.9%.
  

• The New York Fed’s regional index of manufacturing fell from -34.65 to -38.23.
  

• OPEC met and decided to keep the official production quota unchanged
  

• OPEC expects world oil demand to total 84.6 million barrels per day in 2009,
  

• In 2008 Canada’s industrial capacity utilization was at 77.8%.
  

• YoY consumer prices in the Euro area rose 1.2% in February.
  

• Obama said he has instructed Geithner to “pursue every single legal avenue” to block bonuses to the ailing AIG insurer’s executives.
  
  

• President Obama announced a permanent ban on the slaughter of cows too sick or weak to stand on their own for use in human food.
  

• China has entered a free trade agreement on service trade with Pakistan.

• Vikram Pandit was paid almost $11 million to lead Citigroup in a year that the troubled US bank required $45 billion in handouts from the taxpayer.
  

• Millionaires who agreed to hefty divorce settlements during the economic boom are seeking to renegotiate the terms of the agreements now that the recession has hit.

AIG names recipients of its bailout money
The list released Sunday of "counterparties" that benefited from the bailout is topped by European banks Societe Generale and Deutsche Bank, which received $4.1 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively.
Wall Street firms Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch round out the top four, receiving $2.5 billion and $1.8 billion, respectively.

Where Did the Money Go?
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has resisted calls from Congress that he release the names of the banks that were recipients of the bailout money the Fed gave to AIG to prevent it from collapsing. AIG insured its counterparties against losses from mortgage-backed derivatives. The Fed poured $85 billion into AIG, which paid out $37.3 billion of that money to counterparties that had purchased a certain type of derivative-based protection from AIG, called multi-sector credit default swaps.

The counterparties have never been disclosed but the Wall Street Journal reported that they included Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, UBS and Deutsche Bank.

G20: the summit risks becoming the Kyoto of the economic meltdown
What all these policies assume, however, is that a propensity to borrow and spend still exists in the private sector, among consumers and companies. Borrow and spend (and tax and spend) is the Government's reflex action to any question but life is more complicated in the real world

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for the global economy for the second time in eight days after predicting a deeper recession in Europe. “Following the reduction of our Euroland growth forecast to minus 3.6 percent in 2009, the world economy is now likely to contract by 1 percent this year,” said London-based Goldman economist Binit Patel.
  
  

• The U.S. trade deficit fell in January to the lowest level in six years. Exports were down 6% while imports were down 7%. The result was $36.0 billion of net imports, less than expected.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 56.3 to 56.6
  
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 7.7%
  

• The European car market shrank 18% in February
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in February, not as bad as expected.
  

• U.S. new jobless claims rose 15,000 last week to 654,000.
  

• Japan's GDP fell 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008
  

• Australia's unemployment rate rose from 4.8% to 5.2%
  

• Switzerland reduced its interest rate from 0.50% to 0.25%

• China's Premier Wen Jiabao expressed concern over the outlook for the U.S. government debt China holds and said he hopes the U.S. will ensure the safety of those assets.
  
  
  

• S&P lowered GE’s debt ratings one level to AA and raised the outlook to stable.

• Fitch cut Buffett’s Berkshire AAA debt rating to AA+
  

• Liechtenstein said it will relax its tradition of bank secrecy and promised closer cooperation with international tax-evasion probes according to OECD standards.
  

• Madoff pleaded guilty -- the judge ordered jail pending sentencing and revoked bail.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- U.S. household wealth fell by a record $5.1 trillion from October to December, almost twice the decrease in the previous quarter, as home values and stock prices plunged, Federal Reserve figures showed.
  

• U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show dry to severe drought conditions in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

• The China National Grain and Oils Information Center expects the country's output of grains in 2009 to be lower for the first time in six years.
  It projects wheat output to be down 1.3% to 111 million metric tons
  It projects corn output to be down 1.5% to 163 million tons
  It projects soybean output down 3.2% to 15 million tons
  
  

Quick Overview

• Citigroup said the company showed an $8.3 billion operating profit in the first two months of this year. Pandit said his bank is having the best quarter since 2007, when it last posted a profit.
  

• U.S. wholesale sales fell 2.9% in January
  U.S. wholesale inventories fell 0.7%.
  

• MoM U.K. industrial production fell 2.6% in January and 11.4% YoY.
  

• China's consumer prices fell 1.6% in February.

• YoY China’s exports fell 25.7%

• China's February auto sales rose 25% -- after tax cuts

• Brazil's economy shrank a larger-than-expected 3.6% QoQ
  

• The USDA said 63% of the winter wheat crop in Texas and 43% in Oklahoma are rated poor to very poor.
  

• The International Coffee Organization reduced its guess of 2008-2009 world coffee production from 133.4 to 127.8 million bags
  

• (Reuters) - Iran lacks weapons-grade highly enriched uranium and has not yet made a decision on whether to produce any, U.S. intelligence officials told Congress on Tuesday.

Time to examine emotions? Alarmed? Shocked? Desolate?