China's stimulus package looks like it's stimulating
Yet official data suggest the money being pumped through the economy is already putting some juice back into China's industrial sector. New orders to the industrial sector rose in January, driven by heavy industry. Growth in bank loans has also shot up. Both look like early signs that the stimulus is stimulating.

China can afford more later, if need be. The package so far will leave a fiscal deficit of under 3pc of GDP - high for China, but frugal by today's international standards. Total government debt as a percentage of GDP sits in the teens, a minimal level. And Beijing can always green-light projects while telling them to find finance on a commercial basis.

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders fell 1.9% in January, not as weak as expected

• U.S. jobless claims fell 31,000 last week to 639,000.
  

• U.S. productivity fell 0.4%.

• No stimulus package from China. Instead, it reaffirmed its belief that the current package will do the job.
  

• The Bank of England cut its interest rate from 1.00% to a record low 0.50%,
  

• The ECB cut rates from 2.00% to a record low 1.50%, as expected.
  

• GDP in the Euro area fell 1.5% in Q4, but rose 0.8% for all of 2008.

• Mortgage delinquencies rose to a 7.88% of all loans, the highest on record since 1972

• General Electric's GE Capital will be profitable for the first quarter and full year and won't need fresh capital except under an unlikely disaster scenario, the company's financial chief said.

• Shares of US Bancorp (USB) have bounced on reports that Rep. Barney Frank has said it and Northern Trust (NTRS) will give back their TARP funds.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management index of services fell from 42.9 to 41.6

• (Reuters) - The Obama administration on Wednesday launched a $75 billion foreclosure relief plan, as new data showed one in five U.S. homeowners with mortgages owe more than their house is worth.
  

• Australia’s GDP fell 0.5%
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 700,000 barrels 350.6 million
  Supplies of gasoline rose 200,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 900,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 81.4% to 83.1% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 2.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 4.5% YoY.
  

• The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association lowered its estimate of this year's coffee harvest from 17 to 16 million bags.
  

• The number of containerships sitting idle worldwide is said to have soared to an historic high of 453 ships, that is 1.35 million TEU or 10.7 per cent of the world's box tonnage, AXS-Alphaliner News reports.

• (Reuters) - Switzerland's largest bank held its ground on Wednesday in a dispute with the U.S. government, refusing to disclose the names of tens of thousands of rich American clients suspected by U.S. authorities of using secret Swiss bank accounts to dodge U.S. taxes.

• The collapse of the Historical Archive of Cologne on Tuesday buried more than a millenium's worth of documents under tons of rubble. Archivists and historians hope something can be salvaged, but the future of the city's past is grim.

EU pledges eurozone rescue Europe's financial authorities have revealed the existence of a contingency plan to rescue eurozone states at risk of default, giving the first clear assurance that the EU will mount a defence if monetary union comes under speculative attack.

China May Announce New Stimulus Measures Tomorrow (Update3)
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao may announce new stimulus measures tomorrow, adding to a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) spending plan as the government tries to revive growth in the world’s third-biggest economy.

Quick Overview

• U.S. pending home sales fell 7.7% in January, weaker than expected.
  

• Australia kept rates unchanged at 3.25%
  

• Canada reduced its interest rate from 1.0% to .50%
  

• Fed Chairman Bernanke said policy makers may need to expand aid to the banking system beyond the $700 billion already approved.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve lifted executive- compensation limits for sponsors of asset-backed securities accepted under a new $1 trillion loan program.
  

• The International Cocoa Organization expects world cocoa production down 5% in 2008-2009, and a supply deficit of 193,000 tons.

• Ford reports February sales fell 48.4%.

• Canada’s largest lumber producer, said it would expand shutdowns of sawmills

• (Bloomberg) -- Chinese state stockpiling of copper may mean the withdrawal of about a quarter of the metal held in warehouses

• CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico (Reuters) - Hundreds of heavily armed soldiers fanned out across Mexico's bloodiest drug war city on Tuesday, trying to prevent a collapse in law and order just south of the U.S. border.

• EU officials voted to impose a duty on biodiesel imports from the U.S. to counteract a U.S. tax credit.

• California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has called on world leaders to stop "whining and complaining" about the economic slowdown.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Personal incomes rose 0.4% in January
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.6% -- snapping six months of declines.

• U.S. Construction fell 3.3% MoM -- the 13th consecutive month of declines.
  

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing rose from 35.6 to 35.8
  

• Canada’s GDP fell 0.8% in Q4
  

• U.K.’s manufacturing index fell from 35.8 to 34.7 in February, the 10th consecutive month of declines.
  

• YoY Japan’s auto sales fell 32% in February.
  

• AIG, the walking dead insurance giant is back in the government trough for another $30 billion.

Buffett Says Economy ‘In Shambles,’ Promises Better Days Ahead
“The economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond,” said Buffett. “Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so.”

New 'Iron Curtain' will split EU's rich and poor
The spectacular collapse of some of the post-communist tiger economies led to demands at an EU summit in Brussels for a rescue fund of €190 billion (£170 billion) to stop social collapse in the Eastern nations spilling over into the rest of Europe.

We need shock and awe policies to halt depression Factory output is collapsing at the fastest pace everywhere. The figures for the most recent month available are, year-on-year: Taiwan (-43pc), Ukraine (-34pc), Japan (-30pc), Singapore (-29pc), Hungary (-23pc), Sweden (-20pc), Korea (-19pc), Turkey (-18pc), Russia (-16pc), Spain (-15pc), Poland (-15pc), Brazil (-15pc), Italy (-14pc), Germany (-12pc), France (-11pc), US (-10pc) and Britain (-9pc). Norway sails blissfully on (+4pc). What do they drink up there?

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP contracted at a 6.2% annual rate in Q4
  
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 61.2 to 56.3 in January
  

• Chicago's purchasing managers' index rose from 33.3 to 34.2 in February
  

• Unemployment in the Euro area rose from 8.1% to 8.2% in January.
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 1.1% YoY
  

• Japan's factory output fell 10.0% in January
  Japan’s household spending fell 5.9% YoY
  

• India’s GDP grew 5.3% YoY
  

• The U.S. government will boost its equity stake in Citigroup to 36%.
  

• Sweden’s GDP contracted 10% on an annualized basis.

• General Electric Co. will cut its quarterly dividend to 10 cents a share from 31 cents, according to CNBC.

Exclusive: Derivatives for Dummies by The Other Katherine Harris
Imagine being able to insure a car that you don’t own or use. Imagine it’s the car your neighbors will let their teenage son drive, when he gets his license in a few weeks — and you know the kid is a reckless brat.
Now imagine that, by using financial derivatives called swaps, you can purchase as many insurance policies on this car as you can afford to pay premiums on.

BERNIE & THE DOMINOS
3 MORE 'SCAMS' EXPOSED
"There are potentially hundreds of millions of other dollars, and we have no idea where that money is," Klein said, adding that there could be more than 350 victims.

Las Vegas Running Out of Water Means Dimming Los Angeles Lights
In Asia, developing giants are battling pollution as their populations grow. China, home to 21 percent of the world’s people last year, has just 7 percent of the water. Nine in 10 Chinese-city groundwater systems are fouled by industrial toxins, pesticides and human waste..

..In India, with 1.2 billion people, three-quarters of the surface water is contaminated, that country’s government said in September.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 36,000 last week to 667,000, the most in over 16 years. Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits topped 5.1 million.
  
  

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 5.2% MoM.

• UK Feb. House Prices fell 17.6% YoY vs. 17.1% expected
  
  

• GM lost $9.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009.

• The number of troubled U.S. banks rose 47% to 252 in Q4 the FDIC said.

• PepsiCo has announced it will be introducing a new line of ‘pure sugar’ soft drinks in late April.
  

Quick Overview

• Existing-home sales fell 5.3% to a nearly 12-year low in January, and the median home price fell to $170,300 from $199,800 YoY.
  

• U.K. GDP fell 1.5% in the fourth quarter
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area fell 5.2% MoM and 22% YoY.

• YoY EU steel production fell 45.9% in January
  

• Czarnikow increased its estimate of the 2008-2009 world sugar production deficit from 5.8 to 10.4 million tons.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 700,000 barrels to 351.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 3.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 82.3% to 81.4% of capacity
  Gasoline demand fell 1.7% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 1.6% YoY
  

• South Africa's Chamber of Mines said the nation's gold production fell 14% in 2008 to the lowest level since 1922.
  

• Bernanke said at risk homeowners need a bailout - even if they knew they couldn't afford their home in the first place.
  

• (Reuters) - The Arctic and Antarctic regions are warming faster than previously thought, raising world sea levels and making drastic global climate change more likely than ever, international scientists said on Wednesday.

Quick Overview

• YoY the S&P's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities fell 18.5% in December
  

• U.S. consumer confidence fell to a record low of 25 from Januarys 37.4 the Conference Board said
  

• German business confidence index (IFO) fell to 82.6 from 83 in January
  

• Pimco's Gross said that any effort by the U.S. government to nationalize floundering banks wouldn't work, partly because of the number of banks involved.
  

• YoY air cargo flying on Latin American airlines fell 25.4% in December

Will Germany deliver on the Faustian bargain that created monetary union?
The vast imbalances that have been allowed to build up under the seductive protection of EMU leave German taxpayers facing bail-out liabilities that exceed the cost of reparations after the First World War, in proportional terms.

Obama’s Policy on Civil Liberties: Bush Lite?
.. Unfortunately, instead of prosecuting Bush administration officials, including George W. Bush, for violating criminal statutes against torture, illegal wiretapping of Americans, and other misdeeds—thus avoiding the bad precedent of giving a president a free pass on illegal acts—Obama appears ready to vindicate the prior administration’s anti-terrorism program by adopting Bush Lite.

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) -- U.S. financial regulators pledged to inject additional funds into the nation’s major banks to prevent their collapse and will this week begin examinations to determine if they have enough capital.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Asian nations will form a $120 billion pool of foreign-exchange reserves that can be used by countries to defend their currencies in an expansion of efforts to battle fallout from the global financial crisis.
  

• Hillary is pleading with China to continue buying US Treasury bonds amid mounting fears that Washington may struggle to finance bank bailouts and ballooning deficits over the next two years.
  

• Obama has set the goal of cutting the federal government's budget deficit in half by the end of his first term.
  

• Canada’s retail sales were down 5.4% in December
  

• Political unrest by Argentinean farmers continues over the issue of export taxes.
  

• The USDA said cattle on-feed were down 5.7% YoY
  

• The USDA said frozen pork supplies were up 3.5% YoY.
  

• The USDA said frozen supplies of orange juice concentrate were up 42% YoY
  

• Cocaine has fallen in price. It's now cheaper than beer, says the Telegraph.
  

UBS wobbles as Swiss fear for banking icon
"Without banking secrecy, we would have a million people unemployed over the next years," Freysinger said. "People cannot imagine how much depends on the banking secrecy and what it means for Switzerland's welfare."

Jumbo Loan Defaults Rise at Fast Pace as Rich Suffer (Update2)
“They’re telling me the house is only worth $1.3 million,” said Young, 46. “I’m upside down. I’m stuck. I’m in bailout mode but they’re bailing out banks and they’re not bailing out homeowners.”

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% MoM and is unchanged YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2% MoM and up 1.7% YoY

• (FT) US financial stocks endured more heavy losses early as fears persisted that the government would be forced to nationalise a key institution and thus wipe out shareholders
  

• U.K. retail sales rose 0.7% MoM and up 3.6% YoY

• UK car production fell 58.7% in January.
  

• YoY Canada consumer price index rose 1.1% in January.
  

Quick Overview

• Europe's institutions are scrambling to prevent financial contagion from Ukraine and potentially setting off a full-blown banking crisis in Austria.
  

• Daily Telegraph: Global fund managers are betting that a powerful rebound in China will revive demand for commodities and lead global industry out of slump.

• U.S. Leading indicators rose 0.4% in January, more than expected, and led by a jump in money supply.
  

• U.S. producer price index rose 0.8% MoM and fell 1.0% YoY
  

• U.S. jobless claims were unchanged at 627,000.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -24.3 to -41.3
  

• Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.10%
  

• Canada’s leading indicators fell 0.8%

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 200,000 barrels to 350.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 700,000 barrels
  Refinery use rose from 81.6% to 82.3% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 0.8 YoY
  Distillate demand rose 0.3% YoY
  
  

Ukraine must be rescued from tragi-comedy for Europe's sake
Meanwhile gross domestic product has contracted by 20pc over the last year, apparently worse than early Bolshevism or the Stalin famine.

UBS Will Disclose Names, Pay $780 Million to End U.S. Tax Case
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland’s largest bank, will pay $780 million and disclose the names of some secret account holders..

Madoff Loss Spawned in ‘Bargain With Devil’ at Cerberus Bank
..As many as 50 percent of companies owned by private-equity firms may default by 2011, according to a study of 328 holdings by Boston Consulting Group.

Obama Sets $75 Billion Plan to Stem U.S. Foreclosures (Update1)
Homeowners also are eligible for $1,000 annually for five years for remaining current on their loans, according to the plan.

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts plunged 17% percent last month to an annual rate of 466,000.
  

• The Mortgage Bankers' Association said mortgage applications rose 46% last week.
  

• Australia’s retail sales rose 0.8%
  

• Canada’s wholesale sales fell 3.4% in December
  

• Construction output in the Euro area fell 2.2%MoM and 10.1% YoY.
  

• Demand for gold rose by 29% to $102bn last year, according to the World Gold Council.
  

• Latvia's Finance Ministry announced that the economy will shrink 12% this year.
  

• Greenspan said the U.S. government may have to nationalize banks “temporarily”.
  

• The number of idle containerships has increased to 392, aggregating to 1,100,000 TEU, or 8.8% of the box fleet, according to Paris-based AXS-Alphaliner News.
  

• E*Trade reported a 30% slide in new accounts opened in January as it deals with a waning appetite for the equities markets.

Quick Overview

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -26.14 to -39.08
  

• YoY, the number of U.S. airline passengers fell 12.8% in November – the biggest drop in domestic and international passengers since January 2002.
  

• Singapore January exports fell 35% as global demand collapses.
  
  

• Japan's GDP fell 3.3% in Q4
  

• YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 3.0%
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales fell 8.0% in December
  

• (CNN Money) There's a nice windfall for some homebuyers in the economic stimulus bill awaiting President Obama's signature on Tuesday. First-time buyers can claim a credit worth $8,000 - or 10% of the home's value, whichever is less - on their 2008 or 2009 taxes.

• The SEC filed charges against R. Allen Stanford, alleging he orchestrated a multi-billion dollar scheme centering on an $8 billion CD program.

• General Motors said it needs $16.6 billion in new U.S. loans. Chrysler needs another 5 billion

Eastern European currencies crumble as fears of debt crisis grow
Austria’s banks are the most exposed with the share of risk-weighted assets tied to the region reaching 54pc for Raffeisen and 38pc for Erste Bank. The exposure of Germany’s Bayern Bank is 48pc, Italy’s UniCredit is 45pc, and Swedbank is 29pc.

Banks Face Downgrades on Eastern European Losses, Moody’s Says
Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Austrian, Swedish and other banks with subsidiaries in eastern European may face rating downgrades as economies in the region deteriorate, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Still aglister
..world gold supply will contract more slowly than demand, causing excess supply to rise by 21% to 553 tonnes. Only the worldwide flight to safety and the lack of appeal of other assets, it seems, will keep gold prices high.

Dreadful economic results in Japan suggest that things will only get gloomier
The preliminary estimate suggested that the economy had shrunk at an annualised rate of 12.7% during the period, the third consecutive quarter of contraction.

When stress is at its worst, sex can stop you fretting When a couple are lying in bed and the man is worrying about his job and the woman is fretting about her savings, neither of them is properly primed for sex.
It is a pity..

Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown
Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.

House panel adopts financial oversight bill
It would expand the authority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, one of the smallest federal agencies, by giving it criminal prosecution power over companies and individuals that violate antifraud rules - something only the Justice Department is now empowered to do. And it specifically prohibits the Federal Reserve from regulating the derivatives markets, saying either the CFTC or the Securities and Exchange Commission could step into that role.

Quick Overvieww

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 61.2 to 56.2
  

• GDP in the Euro area fell 1.2% YOY
  

• Germanys GDP fell 2.1% QoQ, the biggest drop since 1987
  

• Canada’s new vehicle sales fell 14.8% MoM and 22.5% YoY.
  

• South Korea lowered its interest rate from 2.5% to 2.0%.
  

• (Reuters) - G7 finance ministers headed to Rome to discuss the global economic crisis on Friday with a warning from Germany that the world could be plunged back into the dark days of the 1930s if governments resorted to protectionism.
  

• The U.K. government is urged to ensure bank chief executives have a "recognized banking qualification".
  

High debt levels endanger Britain's AAA credit rating for first time
The massive bank bail-outs and fiscal packages have created a new hazard known as "risk socialisation".

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 1.0% in January

• U.S. Jobless claims were 623,000 last week
  

• Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 4.5% to 4.8%
  

• Euro area industrial production fell 2.6% MoM and 12.0% YoY.
  

• YoY prices of existing U.S. single-family homes fell 12.4% to $180,100 in the fourth quarter -- the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday.
  

• China's CPI rose 1.0% YoY
  

• South African gold output fell 17.6% YoY

China’s New Loans Rise by Record on Stimulus Efforts (Update2)
The jump in new loans to twice the record set a year earlier shows China may succeed in reviving growth even as credit markets around the world remained locked..

Quick Overview

• European banks sitting on £16.3 trillion of toxic assets may suffer massive losses according to a confidential Brussels document.

• The U.S. trade deficit shrank 4.0% in December to $39.93 billion.
  

• The U.K.'s unemployment rate at 6.3%, up from 6.1% MoM.
  

• Canada’s exports fell 9.7% in December while imports fell 5.7%.
  

• China's trade plunged in January. YoY exports fell 17.5%, imports fell 43%.
  

• The Bank of England signaled it was prepared to take unconventional steps (printing) to boost the UK economy
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 4.7 million barrels last week to 350.8 million
  Supplies of gasoline fell 2.6 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 2.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 83.5% to 81.6%
  Gasoline demand rose 0.1% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 1.1% YoY
  

• Ruth Madoff, the wife of Bernard Madoff, withdrew $15.5 million from a Madoff brokerage firm before her husband's arrest.

Geithner Says Bank-Rescue Plans May Reach $2 Trillion (Update1)
“Instead of catalyzing recovery, the financial system is working against recovery,” Geithner said in unveiling the Obama administration’s overhaul of the government’s financial-bailout plans in Washington today. “At the same time, the recession is putting greater pressure on banks. This is a dangerous dynamic, and we need to arrest it.”

Quick Overview

• Japan's consumer confidence improved from 26.2 to 26.4
  

• Australia’s business confidence fell from -20 to -32
  

• The USDA estimates U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
  Corn unchanged at 1.790 billion bushels.
  Soybeans lowered from 225 to 210 million bushels.
  Wheat unchanged at 655 million bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 1.072 to 1.066 million tons.
  Cotton was raised from 6.90 to 7.70 million bales.
  

• The USDA estimates 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
  Corn was raised from 136 to 137 million tons.
  Soybeans were reduced from 54 to 50 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 148 to 150 million tons.
  Cotton was raised from 59 to 62 million tons.
  
  

• The USDA lowered 2009 beef production estimate from 26.54 to 26.11 million pounds
  

• The USDA reduced its estimate of pork production from 23.035 to 22.980 million pounds
  

• The USDA lowered its estimate of the 2008-2009 Florida orange crop from 162 to 158 million boxes and juice yield from 1.62 to 1.61 gallons per box.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• Canada’s housing starts fell 11%.
  

• Japan's machinery orders fell 1.7% in December.
  

• The International Coffee Organization increased its estimate of 2008-2009 world production from 132.5 to 133.4 million bags.

Bond market calls Fed's bluff as global economy falls apart
The Fed has stepped into the breach, up to a point. It has bought $350bn of commercial paper, and begun to buy $600bn of mortgage bonds. That helps. But still it recoils from buying Treasuries, perhaps fearing that any move to "monetise" Washington's deficit starts a slippery slope towards an Argentine fate. Or perhaps Bernanke doesn't believe his own assurances that the Fed can extract itself easily from emergency policies when the cycle turns.

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rose from 7.2% to 7.6% in January -- the highest rate in 16 years.
  
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 6.6% to 7.2% in
  

• The U.K.'s manufacturing output fell 2.2%.

China Declares Highest Level of Drought Emergency (Update2
(Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s largest grain producer, raised its drought emergency alert to level one, the highest class, for the first time, as dry weather threatened crops, livestock and rural incomes.

Cheap Crops Won’t Last, Credit Suisse Says: ..corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, adjusted for inflation, are 32 percent below their monthly average price since 1972. Corn fell to an 18-month low on the CBOT in December. Soybeans futures are 27 percent cheaper than their monthly inflation-adjusted average, and wheat is at a 25 percent discount.

Let’s hope policy-makers have learnt the lessons of the Great Depression
Chapter one: debt-fuelled consumer binge. Chapter two: stock market slump. Chapter three: credit crunch. Chapter four: trade war. Chapter five: well, let's not go there. History does not have to repeat itself, despite its rhymes. Extremism and war concluded the slump of 70 years ago, but they needn't this time.