Record U.S. Cash Reserves: Waiting To Be Deployed, But When? There is a massive mountain of U.S. investable cash sitting on the sidelines, earning an ever dwindling rate of interest. This cash pile will help buoy financial markets, but only once the buyers’ strike in the credit markets ends.

Famines May Occur Without Record Crops This Year, Potash Says
``As protein consumption increases, as they move from fish to chicken, chicken to pork, and pork to beef, the demand for commodities increases almost by an order of magnitude.''

The people who hustle granite countertops are finally getting a rest News came yesterday, that the Fed has quietly lent some $50 billion to member banks using a new method - an "auction facility" that allows banks to put up unconventional collateral. The government no longer reports a figure for M3, the broadest measure of the money supply, but shadow analysts say it is going up at 15% per year - about six times faster than GDP growth.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Housing starts rose 0.8% MoM, but fell 28% YoY.
  

• U.S. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in January and 4.3% YoY.
  

• Canada's composite index of leading indicators rose 0.2%.
  

• The per-acre cost of fertilizer to produce corn has gone from $95 an acre to $130, says David Asbridge, a senior economist for Doane Advisory Services.
  

• India is likely to import 3.5 million tonnes pulses in FY09. Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the main pulses producing states, have not received enough rainfall.

Coffee Jumps in N.Y. as Inventories Dwindle, Commodities Surge
Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by ICE Futures U.S. have dropped 3 percent this year. Coffee inventories in Brazil, the world's biggest grower, are at a 50-year low, said Jaime Menahem, a trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Miami. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index surged as much as 3.1 percent to the highest ever, led by record crude-oil and gasoline prices.

Quick Overview

• YoY Consumer prices in Canada rose 2.2%
  

• Czarnikow lowered the world sugar production surplus for 2007-2008 from 10.5 to 9.7 million tons.
  

• The Supreme Court turned down a legal challenge to the warrantless domestic spying program Bush created.
  

• Toshiba is pulling out of the HD DVD business, handing victory to Sony's Blu-ray.
  

• Fidel Castro retired.
  

• Banks "quietly" borrowed $50 billion from the Fed.

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• Crude oil rose to $100.10 on speculation OPEC will cut production.

A Financial War With No Winners
So, maybe the stock market is looking at this situation, too. And maybe it sees stocks as a protection from inflation…maybe it's guessing that an investment in a profit-making business is a better place for money than a bank account. Maybe it wants to go up because of inflation…and wants to go down because of a coming slump. In the end, it goes nowhere.

And maybe the bond market sees the same picture. Maybe it sees a slowdown…which would be good for bond prices…but rising rates of inflation too, which would be bad. What should it do? It doesn't know any more than anyone else. So, it bides its time, waiting to see how the war will turn out.

Quick Overview

• U.S. industrial production rose 0.1%
  
  

• U.S. consumer sentiment fell from 78.4 to 69.6
  

• Reuters said lack of rain in the Ivory Coast for the last couple of months may delay this year's mid-crop cocoa harvest
  

• GDP in Indonesia rose 6.25% QoQ.
  
  

• Argentina extended restrictions (again) on exports of wheat in an attempt to provide for domestic supply. The U.S. banking and food industry would like Washington to follow suit.

• Because of weather problems, sugar output in Chinas Guangxi region, the country's largest producer, may drop 1 million tons from the original 8 million-ton forecast.

Quick Overview

• U.S. exports rose $2.2 billion in December, while imports fell $2.2 billion—resulting in $58.8 billion of net imports.
  
  

• Australia’s unemployment rate improved from 4.3% to 4.1% in January,
  

• Canada's exports fell 3.1% in December, while imports rose 0.7% -- resulting in $2.4 billion of net exports.
  

• GDP in the Euro zone rose 0.4% QoQ and 2.3% YoY.
  

• GDP in Japan rose 0.9% QoQ and 1.8% YoY.

• BOJ kept interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.
  
  

• Thailand has started requiring that all its diesel fuel include a component made from palm oil, a move that could reduce costly energy imports but is driving up prices for the commodity.
  
  

• Grain and oilseed prices rose on fresh signs of demand and shrinking supply. Almost half of China’s autumn and winter rapeseed crop was negatively affected by the recent rain and snow storms, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said.
  
  

• The U.S. is importing wheat?? According to Dow Jones Newswire a million bushels of German wheat has been bought by a U.S. firm (Cargill?)for blending with other U.S. wheat.
  
  

Americans Selling Homes See Prices Go Below Mortgage (Update2)
By the end of this year as many as 15 million U.S. households may owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, according to an estimate from Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist of New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in January -- better than expected.
  

• U.K.'s unemployment rate improved to 5.2%, the lowest since 1975.

• Producer prices in Japan rose 3.0% YoY.
  

• Consumer confidence in Australia fell 103.1 to 97.4
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area fell 0.2%.
  

• The DOE said: Supplies of crude oil rose 1.1 million barrels to 301.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 600,000 barrels.
  Refinery activity improved from 84.3% to 85.1% of capacity
  Gasoline demand rose 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 2.8% YoY
  

Quick Overview

• Warren Buffett unveiled a plan to “reinsure” $800 billion of municipal bonds.
  

• Six U.S. Banks launched a program aimed at staving off home foreclosure for seriously delinquent borrowers.
  

• Consumer prices in the U.K. rose 2.2% YoY.
  

• The Senate passed a White House demanded surveillance measure that grants legal impunity to companies that helped the government's warrantless spying program.
  

• The DOE said OPEC's oil production increased from 32.15 to 32.23 million barrels a day while surplus capacity fell from 1.50 to 1.40 million barrels a day.

Quick Overview

• Dow-Jones said Bank of America and Chevron will replace Altria Group and Honeywell International in its Dow-Jones Industrial Average effective Feb. 19th.
  

• Bush signed the $170 billion stimulus package.
  

• U.K.’s producer prices rose 5.7% YoY
  

• Goldman Sachs raised its three- and six-month outlook for Chicago wheat futures by 47 percent to $13.50 a bushel after the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut projected 2007/08 U.S. wheat ending stocks to 272 million bushels, the lowest level since 1947/48.
  
  

• The global corporate default rate in junk debt will jump to 4.6% by the end of this year, Moody's Investors Service said.
  
  

• South Africa's electricity shortage continues with state owned Eskom, which won't be able to increase capacity until 2013, asking consumers to cut usage by 10 percent.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Congress passed and sent to Bush a $168 billion economic stimulus package.
  
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 6.0% to 5.8%
  

• The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of:
  Corn unchanged at 1.438 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were lowered from 175 to 160 million bushels.
  Wheat was lowered from 292 to 272 million bushels.
  Sugar was raised from 2.006 to 2.029 million tons.
  Cotton was raised from 7.90 to 8.20 million bales.
  

• The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 world ending stocks of:
  Corn was raised from 101.3 to 101.9 million tons.
  Soybeans were lowered from 46.2 to 45.8 million tons.
  Wheat was lowered from 110.9 to 109.7 million tons.
  Cotton was raised from 54.75 to 57.33 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA lowered its estimate of the 2007-2008 Florida orange crop from 168 to 166 million boxes, but increased its estimate of the juice yield from 1.60 to 1.62 gallons per box
  
  

• There are rumors that Brazil may start buying US wheat as soon as April.
  
  
  

THE REAL SCANDAL
At the crisis' core are loans that were made with virtually nonexistent underwriting standards - no verification of income or assets; little consideration of the applicant's ability to make payments; no down payment.

Most people instinctively understand that such loans are likely to be unsound. But how did the heavily-regulated banking industry end up able to engage in such foolishness?

India's Wheat Imports May Rise 68%, Bolstering Record Prices
``I will be surprised if India matches last year's output as planting got delayed because of dry weather,'' Samson said

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales fell 1.5% in December. YoY pending sales fell 24%.
  

• The Bank of England lowered its interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25%, as expected.
  
  

• The unemployment rate in New Zealand improved from 3.5% to 3.4%
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. non-farm productivity rose 1.8% QoQ and 2.6% YoY, stronger than expected.
  

• U.S. unit labor costs rose 3.1% in 2007.
  

• Japan's index of leading indicators at 40%
  

• SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Forget about graphs, charts and economic forecasts. Wary investors in Asia are turning to feng shui masters to tell them which way the markets will head in the Chinese Year of the Rat.
  
  

Nearby spring wheat sees spec, supply squeeze
"As of yesterday, there were still 20,000 contracts deliverable against March and only enough wheat in inventory in the delivery points for about 2,000 contracts," Brugler explained. "So very much a squeeze situation."

In fact, Brugler said some have quietly calculated that at current prices, it’s actually cost-effective to bring European spring wheat into Minneapolis delivery points. Brugler adds that it's clear the sharp price rise still hasn’t limited buying interest in the contract. What’s less clear, Brugler said, is exactly why that is.

CDO Ratings to Fall as Losses Trigger Fitch Overhaul The New York-based company may lower the notes by as much as five levels after failing to accurately assess the risk of debt that packages other assets, according to guidelines proposed by Fitch today. CDOs with AAA grades that are based on credit-default swaps and aren't actively managed may face the steepest reductions.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Managements' index of services fell from 54.4 to 41.9 in January, weaker than expected.
  
  

• Index of services in the Euro area dropped from 53.1 to 50.6.
  

• Services in the U.K. increased from 52.4 to 52.5 in January.
  

• Retail sales volume in the Euro area fell 0.1% in December.
  
  

• Australia's central bank raised its interest rate by a quarter point to an 11-year high of 7%.
  
  

• Ethanol production hit a new record high of 14.356 million barrels in November, up 338,000 barrels from October and up 40% YoY.
  

• Excessive rains have increased Asian rust problems on up to 25% of Brazil’s soybean belt.
  

• Canada’s wheat stocks fell 30% YoY. Corn stocks rose15%, and Canola stocks fell 9% YoY.
  

• The Bush budget proposal sent to Congress will let the 54c a gallon ethanol import tariff expires when the FY 2009 budget begins Oct 1, 2008;
  

• Indonesia's government will impose a 15% export tax if palm oil exceeds $1,100 a metric ton.
  
  

• Thai rice exporters could start defaulting on orders due to rapidly rising domestic rice prices, the Bangkok Post reported.
  
  

• The SEC is beginning to approve some "active" exchange-traded funds, which pick securities rather than simply track an index.

Russian economy succumbs to the oil curse
Nice Tsarist flats fetch $3m to $4m. Even Bolshevik boxes are booming. Moscow boasts 150,000 home millionaires in dollars, says Sergei Polonsky, the Mirax Group tycoon. In a good year, prices double

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders rose 2.3% in December-- less than expected. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.7%.
  
  

• Australian home price rose 12% in 2007,
  
  

• Producer prices in the Euro area rose 0.1% in December and 4.3% YoY.
  
  

• Bush wants to spend $3.1 trillion in 2008-2009, up 76% since1999.
  
  

• China is building an enormous logistics facility covering nearly 70 hectares for the newly-launched Sino-Germany Container Railway. It is predicted that the volume of Germany-bound boxes on this railway will reach 20,000 to 26,000 TEU by 2010 while Beijing-bound boxes will be about 10,000 TEU.

Banana Republic, Without the Bananas…or the Republic How does an economy like this keep going? It depends on the kindness of strangers and the stupidity of friends. Who but a fool or a friend would buy a U.S. 30-year treasury bond at a 4.28% yield? This number is only a few basis points from the number for annual increases in consumer prices. Which means, if all goes well, investors can expect to make a return of zero on their investment over the next 30 years. And if all this talk of Zimbabwe economics and banana republic finances turns out to be true, they can expect to suffer another round of losses - measured in the trillions. And why shouldn't it be true? The American Empire is a bit like General Motors, says Martin Hutchinson. It has heavy fixed costs, an aging workforce, worn-out equipment, mammoth debts, and it is losing market share. At immense cost, America maintains its legions in more than 100 overseas garrisons. At home, the mobs call for bread. And every candidate for office - save the forgotten man, Dr. Ron Paul - offers more of it. "We cannot afford another year without decent wages because our leaders could not come together and get it done," said Barack Obama in South Carolina.

Global Finance and the Insanity Defense
French President Nicholas Sarkozy advanced the idea recently that the global financial system is "out of its mind."

Hidden Swap Fees by JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley Hit School Boards
What New York-based JPMorgan Chase didn't tell them, the transcript shows, was that the bank would get more in fees than the school district would get in cash: $1 million. The complex deal, which placed taxpayer money at risk, was linked to four variables involving interest rates. Three years later, as interest rate benchmarks went the wrong way for the school district, the Erie board paid $2.9 million to JPMorgan to get out of the deal, which officials now say they didn't understand.

Wheat Rallies, Extending Record in Minneapolis, on Low Supply
Another concern for farmers in the northern Plains is finding enough spring-wheat seed to plant. Supplies are low because some growers who normally grow seed wheat sold their crop as prices rose, said Louise Gartner, owner of Spectrum Commodities in Beavercreek, Ohio.

Quick Overview

• U.S. lost 17,000 non-farm jobs in January. This was the first monthly loss in 4-1/2 years and increases the likelihood the Fed will cut interest rates another half point next month.
  
  

• Microsoft wants to buy Yahoo for $45 billion in stock and cash.
  
  

• The Institute of Supply Managements' manufacturing index rose from 48.4 to 50.7
  

• U.S. Construction spending fell 1.1% MoM, and 2.6% YoY.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 75.5 to 78.4
  
  

Quick Overview

• MBIA Inc. Chief Executive Dunton dismissed bankruptcy rumors and expects to keep AAA rating.
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 69,000 to 375,000, more than expected and the most in over two years.
  

• U.S. Personal incomes rose 0.5%
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.2%.

• U.S. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.5% YoY.
  

• U.S. employment cost index rose 0.8%

• The Chicago purchasing managers' index fell from 56.4 to 51.5
  

• Russia’s GDP rose 8.1% in 2007
  

• Canada’s GDP rose 0.1% in November and 2.7% YoY
  

• Euro area unemployment rate was unchanged in December at 7.2%.
  

• The U.S. DoE said underground supplies of natural gas fell 274 billion cubic feet last week to 2.262 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are down 13% YoY
  

Putting it in Reverse
On that point, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich writes, "America's middle classes are no longer coping." He notes that the fixes proposed by Bernanke and Bush will not help much, because the middle classes have run out of "coping mechanisms." The short version of the story is that the typical man earns less, in real terms, than he did 37 years ago. "The income of a young man in his 30s is now 12 per cent below that of a man his age three decades ago." Families have struggled to increase their standards of living, first by putting women to work…second, by working longer hours…third, by turning to credit. The workplace is now dominated by over-indebted women who work night and day.

Quick Overview

• The Fed cut its key lending rate by one-half percentage point to 3%,

• U.S. GDP rose 0.6% QoQ and 2.5% YoY, weaker than expected.
  

• Industrial output in Japan rose 1.4% in December.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 3.6 million barrels to 293.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.6 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies fell 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 86.5% to 85.0% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.4% YoY.
  
  

• Cocoa rose to a 4 1/2-year high on speculation that supplies from West Africa are drying up.
  

U.S. farming practices acidifying Mississippi "It's like the discovery of a new large river being piped out of the Corn Belt," Raymond said. "Agricultural practices have significantly changed the hydrology and chemistry of the Mississippi."

Zimbabwe Economics

As we’ve hinted, too, it is one thing to punish a few speculators with skin in the dotcom game. It is quite another to deliver a stern lesson to America’s entire middle class. The latter never liked school.

New Alzheimer's Treatment Completes First Phase Of Testing
A molecule designed by a Purdue University researcher to stop the debilitating symptoms of Alzheimer's disease has been shown in its first phase of clinical trials to be safe and to reduce biomarkers for the disease.

Quick Overview

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 5.2% in December, much more than expected. Excluding transportation orders rose 2.6%.
  

• Consumer confidence fell from 90.6 to 87.9 in January.
  

• Japan’s employment rate unchanged at 3.8%.
  Japan's retail sales fell 0.1% YoY. Household spending rose 2.2%.
  

• Tyson Foods, the nation's second largest pork packer, announced they were in talks with China to supply them with pork. No timetable was announced.
  

• According to Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller, U.S. home prices fell 8.4% YoY. With double-digit declines recorded in some hard-hit areas, such as Miami, San Diego, Las Vegas and Detroit.

Quick Overview

• U.S. New-home sales fell 4.7% MoM, and 26% YoY. The median price of a new home fell 10% YoY to $219,200.
  
  

• The Fed meets tomorrow and Wednesday.
  
  

• Home prices in the U.K. fell 0.3% in December. UK house prices could fall by as much as 5% this year and 8% in 2009, the quarterly Deloitte Economic Review has warned.
  

• Gold and platinum prices hit an all-time high after South Africa's main precious metals mines remained closed for the fourth day for lack of power.

Water shortage poses economic threat
The global population will rise above 9bn by 2050 but as early as 2025 the amount of water available per capita per year will have halved compared to 1960. Then it was 13,000 cubic meters but by 2025 that is projected to have fallen to 6,000 cubic meters.

Banks May Need $143 Billion for Insurer Downgrades (Update4)
``Barclays Capital has come up with a very big and very scary number,'' said Donald Light, an insurance analyst at Boston-based consulting firm Celent. ``It indicates that the cost of a bailout of the bond insurers is a lot less than the cost of shoring up these banks' mark-to-market losses.''

Bernanke's Easing Thwarted by Surging Commercial Mortgage Rates
``Lending standards became more lax because people knew they wouldn't be keeping the loans on their books,'' Tross said

Quick Overview

• GDP in South Korea rose 5.5% QoQ
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.1% in December, 2.4% YoY
  

• Japan's consumer prices rose 0.7% YoY
  

• IGC estimates corn demand at 770 ml tons, and production at 765 ml tons in the 12-month through June.
  

• Argentina lowered it’s corn production estimate to 21 ml tons from 22.
  

• ICO estimates coffee production at 116 million bags and consumption at 123 for 2007-08.
  

• F.O. Licht, lowered it’s estimate for world sugar production this year by 0.5%. It estimates production at 169.1 ml tons, down from an October estimate of 169.9.
  

• The IGC estimates the 2008/09 world wheat crop at a record 642 million tons. That'd be up 6.6% from the 2007/08 crop.
  
  

• Platinum futures hit all-time highs and gold futures set fresh life-of-contract highs, on power-supply shortages in South Africa.

• The rumor of the day is that the almost daily imports of corn by South Korea are actually Chinas.

Europe and Asia face hard landings as bubbles burst
I am bullish on Asia but let's not get ahead of ourselves. The US is a $9.5 trillion (£4.9 trillion) consumption economy: China is $1 trillion, and India is $650bn. They are not yet at the stage where they can fill the void left by an over-indebted US," he said.
Mr Roach said US consumption reached 72pc of GDP in 2007. "No country in the history of the world has ever consumed that much of its GDP.
"We've played the housing bubble, using homes as ATM machines," he said.

A return to normal levels of savings would amount an economic shock equal to 5pc of GDP.

Quick Overview

• U.S. existing home sales are down 2.2% MoM and down 22% YoY.
  Prices of single family homes were down 1.8% in 2007 -- the first decline since records began four decades ago.
  

• China’s GDP rose 11.4% in 2007.
  

• Russia had 1.8% inflation in the first three weeks of January
  

• YoY Japan's trade surplus narrowed 20.9% in December
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 1,000 last week to 301,000.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.3 million barrels to 289.4 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 5.0 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies fell 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.1% to 86.5%
  Gasoline demand rose 1.1%
  Distillate demand rose 0.3%.
  
  

Banks, New York Regulator Meet on Bond Insurer Rescue New capital may help preserve the top credit ratings for the bond guarantors such as MBIA Inc., the industry's largest, and halt any erosion of investor confidence in the $2 trillion of assets they guarantee. Ambac Financial Group Inc., MBIA's biggest rival, lost its AAA grade from Fitch Ratings this month on concern about rising defaults tied to subprime mortgages.

Quick Overview

• U.K.'s GDP rose 0.6% in the fourth quarter and up 3.1% for all of 2007.
  
  

• Canada's leading indicators fell 0.1% in December.
  

• Australia’s consumer prices rose 3.0%.
  

• The USDA said there were 464.3 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, up 5% YoY.

• Frozen bellies totaled 55.5 million pounds, up 32% YoY.
  
  

• The USDA said supplies of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage totaled 682 million pounds.

The Fed did not panic As skittish markets showed today, more will undoubtedly be required, and soon. But at least the US authorities are facing up to the predicament that they created in the first place by fixing the price of credit artificially low for year after year, and failing to regulate banks, derivatives, and structured credit with a minimum of common sense.

Quick Overview

• The Fed cut the fed funds rate 0.75% to 3.50%.
  

• The White House said Bush isn't ruling out a larger economic stimulus package than the $150 billion already proposed.
  

• B of A profit drops 95%.
  

• The International Copper Study Group said in the first ten months of 2007, world copper consumption outpaced production by 220,000 tons
  

• Canada reduced its key interest rate by a 0.25%, to 4.00%.

• Retail sales in Canada rose 0.7% in November
  

• Japan left its key its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%
  

• China recorded double-digit growth in trade with all its major trading partners including the EU, US, Japan, ASEAN and South Korea in 2007, Xinhua reported.

PIMCO's McCulley Calls for the Fed to Cut Rates Immediately NEWPORT BEACH, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jan 21, 2008 -- PIMCO Fed Watcher, Paul McCulley, today called for the Fed to lower rates now rather than wait for its next scheduled meeting. "Sometimes when you are ill, you make an appointment with your doctor; other times, you go straight to the emergency room. Now is one of those other times. The Fed must cut immediately and aggressively for the health of the economy."

Euro at risk from Europe’s economic storm
The euro must be weak, or it will break

Ambac's Insurance Unit Cut to AA From AAA by Fitch Ratings
The seven AAA rated bond insurers place their stamp on $2.4 trillion of debt. Losing those rankings may cost borrowers and investors as much as $200 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The industry guaranteed $100 billion of collateralized debt obligations linked to subprime mortgages, $22 billion of non-prime auto loans and $1.2 trillion of municipal debt.

Quick Overview

• U.S. leading indicators fell 0.2% in December to 136.5, the third consecutive monthly decline.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 75.5 to 80.
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 1.1% in November.
  

• U.K.’s retail sales fell 0.4% in December.
  

• Japan's consumer confidence fell from 39.8 to 38.0.
  

• Jewellery gold demand will sink almost 20 % in the first half of 2008, raising doubts about the sustainability of current record gold prices, according to GFMS
  

• Indonesia plans to institute price controls on soybeans.