Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Managements' index of services fell from 55.8 to 54.1 -- still recording growth.

• U.S. Productivity rose 6.3% -- the most since 2003
  

• US consumer confidence declined to 24 from 21 last week.
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 0.5% in October.
  

• U.S. non-farm productivity rose 2.7% -- better than estimated.
  

• U.S. Unit labor costs rose 3.0%.
  

• Australia left rates unchanged at 6.75% as expected
  

• Australia’s Nov. Services Index rose to 56.4 from 53.2.
  

• UK‘s Consumer confidence dropped to 86 vs. 94 expected
  

• QoQ Australia GDP rose 1.0%, YoY GDP rose 4.3% vs. 4.8% expected.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 8.0 million barrels to 305.2 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 4.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of heating oil supplies fell 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use unchanged at 89.4% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.2%
  Distillate demand rose 5.9%.
  

Corn Jumps to Highest in Five Months on Demand for U.S. Exports
Current moderate La Nina weather conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean may lead to dry weather during South America's critical corn-pollination period in January, Widenor said. In three of the four moderate La Nina periods since 1950, Argentina's growing regions received as little as 25 percent of normal rainfall in January, he said.

Subprime Rate Five-Year Fix Eyed by U.S. Regulators, Lenders
About 100,000 subprime loans will jump from their discounted initial rates every month for the next two years, UBS AG estimates. American home foreclosures almost doubled in October from a year earlier as subprime borrowers failed to make higher payments on adjustable-rate mortgages,...
...These mortgages usually begin with a rate of between 7 percent to 9 percent and then reset to between 11 percent and 13 percent. ``What we are talking about is having these loans modified, so they continue for a longer period of time at the starter rate,'' ..

Quick Overview

• UK Nov. BRC retail sales monitor says retail sales rose 3.1% YoY, as discounting increased revenues.
  

• Australia Oct. retail sales rose 0.2% vs. 0.6% expected.
  

• The Bank of Canada reduced its benchmark rate from 4.50% to 4.25%
  
  

THE NIE REPORT: SOLVING A GEOPOLITICAL PROBLEM WITH IRAN
With this announcement, the dynamics of the Middle Eastern region, Iraq and U.S.-Iranian relations shift dramatically. For one thing, the probability of a unilateral strike against Iranian nuclear targets is gone. Since there is no Iranian nuclear weapons program, there is no rationale for a strike. Moreover, if Iran is not engaged in weapons production, then a broader air campaign designed to destabilize the Iranian regime has no foundation either.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Treasury’s Henry Paulson is confident an agreement will soon be reached that will help thousands of homeowners avoid mortgage defaults by temporarily holding their interest rates steady.
  

• Japan Q3 Capital Spending rose 3.4% YoY
  

• Australia's Oct. Trade Balance out at -2983M vs. -1800M expected.
  

• EU 13 unemployment fell to 7.2 % in October.
  

• The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 50.8 in November -- the fifth straight monthly decline.
  

• The U.S. average price of diesel pushed past a record level for the third time in four weeks, rising 3.4 cents a gallon to $3.444.
  

• Gold demand in China, including the mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan, rose 24 percent in the third quarter to 88.1 tons, the World Gold Council said.
  

• The U.S. national debt is expanding by about $1.4 billion a day -- or nearly $1 million a minute.
  
  

• Thailand’s economy grew 4.9% YoY.
  

• Manufacturing in the U.K. rose from 52.8 to 54.4 in November.
  

Sex, chocolate, meat top brain boosters
Plenty of sex, dark chocolate and cold meats are the latest keys to boosting your brain power, according to a new book published in Britain.

Bush Administration Offers Paul Wolfowitz Top State Department Job
Don't ever say the Bush administration doesn't take care of its own. Nearly three years after Paul Wolfowitz resigned as deputy Defense secretary and six months after his stormy departure as president of the World Bank—amid allegations that he improperly awarded a raise to his girlfriend—he's in line to return to public service. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has offered Wolfowitz, a prime architect of the Iraq War, a position as chairman of the International Security Advisory Board..

Banks may freeze subprime loan rates to avoid home foreclosures
The banks' plan recognizes that, absent a proactive move, many subprime ARMs could reset next year to 12 percent or more from current rates of 7 percent to 9 percent.
"I think there is a basic assumption here that there is money that is going to be lost one way or the other," said Wayne Abernathy, the executive director of financial institution policy at the American Bankers Association.

Guantanamo prisoners to ask Supreme Court for basic rights
Multiple Guantanamo Bay cases are being combined for an hour-long oral argument Wednesday morning. The justices must first decide whether some 340 foreign-born prisoners are protected by constitutional habeas corpus guarantees.
Habeas corpus, which in Latin means "produce the body," is a 13th century tenant of law enshrined in the U.S. Constitution. It enables prisoners to demand in federal court the legal justification and factual basis for their detention.

RealtyTrac: Foreclosures up 165 percent in Florida
Nationwide, there were more than 224,000 properties in foreclosure, or one for every 555 households. Filings were up 94 percent from October of last year and up 2 percent from September.
Though the filings continue to increase, RealtyTrac said there is some evidence that conditions are improving.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Personal incomes rose 0.2% in October.
  Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in October and 1.9% YoY.
  

• The Federal Reserve would not hesitate to act to prevent financial strains from damaging the economy and any steps it does take are not made to shield investors, a top Fed official said on Friday.
  
  

• U.S. Construction spending fell 0.8% MoM and 0.6% YoY.
  

• The Chicago purchasing managers index rose from 49.7 to 52.9, stronger than expected
  
  

• Moody's downgraded or put on review debt totaling $119 billion that was issued by SIVs, including some tied to Citigroup.
  

• Congress may legislate a boost in fuel-economy standards to 35 miles a gallon by 2020.
  

• GDP in Canada rose 0.7% in the third quarter and 2.9% YoY.
  

• Japans consumer prices rose 0.3%
  Japans unemployment rate unchanged at 4% in October and
  Japans household spending rose 0.6% in October.
  Japans housing starts fell 35% YoY
  

• GDP in the euro zone rose 2.7% YoY
  

• Retail sales in Germany fell 2.7%
  

• GDP in India rose 8.9%.
  

• The International Cocoa Organization estimates the 2006-2007 estimate of world cocoa ending stocks at 1.6 million tons or 44% of annual use.
  

Quick Overview

• The Fed’s Bernanke said, in prepared comments that financial-market turmoil may put additional strain on the U.S. economy, signaling he is open to cuts in interest rates.
  

• QoQ U.S. GDP rose at an annual rate of 4.9%, the best quarterly performance in four years. YoY GDP rose 2.8%,
  

• The U.S. GDP price deflator rose 0.9% in the third quarter.
  

• The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales rose 1.7% from September's pace. YoY new home sales are down 24%.
  

• The Federal Reserve will act to protect the wider economy from financial turmoil but not to shelter individual investors from losses.
  
  

• Industrial production in Japan rose 1.6% -- a new record high.
  

• Housing prices in the U.K. fell 0.8% in November,
  

• GDP in the Philippines rose 6.6% in the third quarter.
  

• The U.S. Energy Department said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 12 billion cubic feet last week to 3.528 trillion cubic feet.
  

Deadbeat Developers Signaled by Property Derivatives (Update2) The cost of derivatives protecting investors from defaults on the highest-rated bonds backed by properties more than doubled in the past month, according to Markit Group Ltd. Prices suggest traders anticipate defaults rising to the highest level since the Great Depression, according to analysts at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Quick Overview

• The Dow-Jones industrial average had its biggest two-day rally in five years after a Federal Reserve official hinted that the central bank may lower interest rates again.
  

• The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell 1.2% in October and 20.7% YoY. The median home price fell 5.1% YoY.
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October. Excluding transport, orders fell 0.7%.
  

• The Federal Reserve's Beige book said that reports on retail spending were lackluster and real estate remained depressed.
  

• Japan retail sales rose 0.8% YoY.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 400,000 barrels to 313.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 1.3 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 87.0 to 89.4%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.4%
  Distillate demand rose 3.7%.
  

• Argentina closed down wheat exports for five days to protect domestic supplies.
  

Foreclosures will hurt metro economies, mayors warn
The deepening housing crisis will cut economic growth by more than 25 percent in 143 U.S. metropolitan areas next year and by more than a third in 65 metro communities, according to a new forecast for the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
The new report prepared for the mayors by financial forecaster Global Insight warns of cascading problems caused by falling home prices, an expected 1.4 million foreclosures and the pending reset of millions of adjustable-rate mortgages.

Quick Overview

• The Dow industrials rose 215 on Citigroup's cash infusion from Abu Dhabi, and a more than $3 break in oil. Middle Eastern and Asian investment funds have invested an estimated $37bn in shares of western financial companies so far this year.
  

• U.S. Home prices fell 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier
  

• The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell from 95.2 to 87.3, the lowest score since Hurricane Katrina.
  

• Business confidence in Germany rose from 103.9 to 104.2 in November, stronger than expected
  

• YoY GDP in South Africa rose 4.7%
  

• Rumors have it that OPEC may increase daily production by 500,000 barrels when they meet on December 5th.
  

• The USDA expects Colombia's coffee production to increase from 12.2 to 12.4 million bags in 2007-2008.
  

• China's National Grain and Oil Trade Center sees a 2007 grain and oilseed supply shortfall of 26 million tons.

Quick Overview

• U.S. interest rate futures hit new highs, and stocks fell in the face of widening problems in credit markets.

U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving, ShopperTrak Says
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers spent $10.3 billion on holiday purchases yesterday, an 8.3 percent increase from last year

Updates resume Nov. 25

Bond Market to Bernanke: Recession Threat Means More Rate Cuts
Financial companies may lose as much as $400 billion because of home foreclosures, based on a ``back-of-the-envelope'' calculation, Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, wrote in a report last week. That will force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion, he estimated.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in October and up 3.5%YoY.
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 28.75 to 27.37 in November -- stronger than expected.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing rose from 6.8 to 8.2 in November -- stronger than expected.
  

• Canada’s existing home sales rose 1.3% from September's pace.
  

• U.K.'s retail sales fell 0.1% in October, but rose 4.4% YoY.
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro zone rose 2.6% in October
  

• Japan's tertiary index of services fell 1.6% in September.
  

• YoY Industrial production in China rose 17.9%.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels to 314.7 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 700,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 700,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 86.2% to 87.7% last week.
  gasoline demand rose 0.6% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 0.5% YoY.
  Supplies of natural gas are up 2.5% YoY and up 8% from the five-year average.
  

• The World Gold Council said that YoY gold demand rose 19% in the third quarter.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices rose 0.1% MoM and 6.1% YoY
  

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in October.
  

• Retail sales in China were rose 18.1% YoY
  

• GDP in the Euro area rose 2.6%.
  

• The U.K.'s unemployment rate was 5.4%, unchanged QoQ.
  

• Canada's index of leading indicators rose 0.1%.
  

Quick Overview

• A data service for MasterCard Worldwide, said U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in October.
  

• The International Energy Agency expects world oil demand at 87.7 million barrels per day in 2008, down 300,000 barrels from an earlier estimate.

• Japan's GDP rose 0.6% QoQ and 2.1% YoY.
  

• Japan kept interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.
  

• YoY U.K.'s consumer prices rose 2.1%.
  

• YoY Consumer prices in China rose 6.5%.
  

Quick Overview

• YoY Japan producer price index rose 2.4%
  

• Analysts at the Deutsche Bank predict losses worldwide from subprime mortgages will eventually total $300 to $400 billion.
  

• India's industrial growth slowed to 6.4 percent in September.

What Mukasey Can Teach Musharraf Why, in a country of 300 million, home to a lopsided number of lawyers, we cannot find someone who will uphold the Constitution unequivocally, is one more mystery of our times.

How to Turn a Region Into a Graveyard..we have witnessed the emergence of a new Middle East that bears no resemblance to anything that US politicians might have envisaged, and which has become a major and lasting destabilising factor in the world.

Rage of Reason
The only time the polling firm has measured such strong give-this-guy-the-hook sentiment was in February 1974, at the height of the Watergate scandal, when Nixon's "strongly disapprove" number was measured at 48 percent. Bush beats him by a nose, but the margin of error makes the contest for "Most Reviled President, Modern Era" a statistical tie.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Trade shortfall of $56.5 billion was less than expected.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 80.9 to 75.0 in November, the lowest in two years.
  

• China raised bank reserves to 11.5%. This is the ninth time this year the bank tries to cool an economy that expanded 11.5 % in the third quarter.

• Europe's central banks sold 50 tons of gold in October.
  

• Japan's industrial output rose 2.2%
  
  

• The European Commission reduced its estimate of GDP growth for the Euro area from 2.5% to 2.2% in 2008, they expect 2.1% growth in 2009.
  

• Canada’s trade surplus of C$2.6 billion is the lowest since December of 1998.
  

• The USDA's 2007-20008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was reduced from 1.997 to 1.897 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were reduced from 215 to 210 million bushels.
  Wheat was increased from 307 to 312 million bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 1.899 to 1.880 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 6.40 to 7.60 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn remained at 110.4 million tons.
  Soybeans were reduced from 50.8 to 49.4 million tons.
  Wheat increased from 107 to 109.8 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 55.0 to 54.8 million bales.
  

Quick Overview

• The Fed’s Bernanke told Congress the central bank is doing all it can to ease the impact of increasing foreclosures. He sees a "delicate balance" between risks to growth and the risks of inflation.
  

• Australia's unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3% in October
  

• Canada's housing starts were down 22% from September's pace.
  
• The Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.75%.
  
• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.00%.
  

• Machinery orders in Japan fell 7.6% in September, weaker than expected.
  

• The People's Bank of China estimats GDP will increase 11% this year with 4.5% inflation.
  
  

• Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp. predicted a 59.4 million ton soybean crop in 2007-2008, the USDA estimated 62.0 million ton.
  

• Louis Dreyfus is predicting that Brazil's next coffee crop will total 50 million (60-kg) bags.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas rose 36 billion cubic feet to 3.545 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now up 3% YoY.

• Statistics South Africa said YoY gold production was down 6.5% in September.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Productivity increased at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, stronger than expected and the best gain in four years.
  

• Vice chairman of the National People's Congress suggested that China should reposition their $1.4 trillion of foreign currency reserves into stronger currencies.
  

• U.S. Wholesale sales rose 1.3% in September inventories rose 0.8%.
  
  

• Federal Reserve officials on said more interest rate cuts could be needed if economic growth proves weaker than expected.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 800,000 barrels last week to 311.9 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were down 800,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were up 600,000 barrels.
  Refinery use was flat last week at a sluggish 86.2% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.8%
  Distillate demand fell 2.4%.
  

• Japans leading index fell 1.3% in September, due to Japan's poor housing starts. Eight of ten indicators rose.
  

Quick Overview

• Japan's index of leading indicators hit 0% in September, a signal of slower conditions ahead.
  

• Business activity in the Euro Area improved from 54.2 to 55.8 in October.
  

• Retail sales in the Euro Area rose 0.3% in September.
  

• The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted interest rates to an 11-year high of 6.75%.
  

• Peruvian miners went on strike. Peru is the world's largest producer of silver, fifth largest gold producer, and third largest copper producer.
  
  

• In Q4, the U.S. Department of Energy expects world oil consumption at 87.45 million barrels a day, and production at 85.88 million barrels a day.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services increased from 54.8 to 55.8 in October, stronger than expected.
  

• The Federal Reserve should be ready to reverse two interest rate cuts if the U.S. economy escapes major damage from recent market turmoil, but recovery is a way off for housing and subprime mortgage markets, Fed officials said.
  

• Citigroup warned of another $8 to $11 billion in loan losses, reigniting fears about the health of financial firms and the broader U.S. economy. The CEO quit.
  

• The Florida Department of Citrus said that at the end of October, there were 49.2 million gallons of frozen orange concentrate in inventory, this is down 17% YoY.
  

• U.K. services fell from 56.7 to 53.1 in October, weaker than expected,
  

• U.K’s Factory production fell 0.6%.
  

• Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui yesterday underlined the need to raise interest rates in a timely manner, saying that keeping them too low in the light of economic conditions could pose risks in the future.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Unemployment rate remained at 4.7% in October with a net increase of 166,000 jobs, much more than expected.
  

• U.S. Factory orders rose 0.2% in September, better than expected. Excluding transport, orders rose 1.4%.
  
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 5.9% to 5.8% in October, the lowest in 33 years
  

• Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty played down the idea of cutting interest rates as a way of stemming the rise of the Canadian dollar.
  

• Manufacturing in the Euro zone fell from 53.2 to 51.5 in October, the lowest in two years.
  

• Informa estimates the U.S. corn crop at 13.193 billion bushels, down 125 million from the last USDA forecast.
  
  

• Informa estimates the U.S. soybean crop at 2.628 billion bushels, up 30 million from the last USDA forecast.
  
  

• The Census Bureau said soybean oil stocks were 2.91 billion pounds at the end of September compared with 3.05 billion in August.

Quick Overview

• The Fed injected $41 billion into the U.S. financial system Thursday, the largest cash infusion since September 2001.
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.4% in September, as expected
  

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.3%, less than expected.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing fell from 52.0 to 50.9 in October, weaker than expected.
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 0.8% in September.
  

$43.5 Billion Spying Budget for Year, Not Including Military
The number released Tuesday does not include the billions of dollars that military services spend annually on intelligence operations. The total spying budget for the last fiscal year, including this Pentagon spending, is said to have been in excess of $50 billion.

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, as expected. The discount rate was reduced from 5.25% to 5.00%
  

• U.S. GDP rose 3.9% YoY, the best quarterly performance in over a year.
  

• U.S. employment cost index rose 0.8% QoQ and up 3.3% YoY.
  

• U.S. Personal consumption rose 1.9%
  

• U.S. construction spending rose 0.3% QoQ. YOY construction spending is down 3.2%
  

• The Chicago purchasing managers' index fell from 54.2% to 49.7%, weaker than expected
  

• Canada's GDP rose 0.2% MoM, and 2.4 YoY.
  

• Japan estimates GDP growth at 1.8% down from 2.1%.
  Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.50%.
  Japan's housing starts fell 44% YoY
  

• Unemployment rate in the Euro area dropped from 7.4% to 7.3%.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.9 million barrels to 312.7 million barrels.
• Supplies of gasoline rose 1.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 500,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.1% to 86.2%
  U.S. gasoline demand rose 0.3% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.7%.
  
  
  

War Plans: United States and Iran
A possible U.S. attack against Iran has been a hot topic in the news for many months now. In some quarters it has become an article of faith that the Bush administration intends to order such an attack before it leaves office. It remains a mystery whether the administration plans an actual attack or whether it is using the threat of attack to try to intimidate Iran -- and thus shape its behavior in Iraq and elsewhere. Unraveling the mystery lies, at least in part, in examining what a U.S. attack would look like, given U.S. goals and resources, as well as in considering the potential Iranian response. Before turning to intentions, it is important to discuss the desired outcomes and capabilities. Unfortunately, those discussions have taken a backseat to speculations about the sheer probability of war.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Consumer confidence fell more than expected, from 99.5 to 95.6, lowest in two years.
  

• Germany's unemployment rate fell from 8.8% to 8.7%.
  

• The national average price of diesel fuel rose 6.3 cents to $3.157 a gallon, matching the all-time record set two years ago.
  
  

• Australia predicts the current wheat crop at 12.1 million tons down form 15.5 previously forecast and 13.5 the last USDA prediction.
  

• Australia's livestock industry will be forced for the first time to import grain from overseas if local supplies continue to dwindle in the crippling drought, producers have warned.
  

• The International Sugar Organization said a global sugar excess may take as long as two years to reduce because of record crops in India and Brazil.
  

• Cocoa: There is concern that black pod disease may be spreading in the Ivory Coast
  

• US real estate wealth is expected to fall anywhere from US$2 trillion to US$4 trillion when the total costs of the recent credit crunch are tallied, the New York Times reported.

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting tomorrow, and the market anticipates a rate cut.
  

• Retail sales in Japan rose 0.5% MoM

• Japan's unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.8% last Month.
  

• Tropical Storm Noel may be heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
  

• Gold and agriculture prices rose, and oil reached a new record close.
  

• The dollar sank to a new low against the euro and a 47-year low against the Canadian $.
  

• There is talk of increasing South African mine safety rules, that could make it harder for South African gold production to recover.
  

China Passes U.S. in Top 10 List as China Life Surges
``European countries were also surprised at the beginning of the 20th century when American companies overtook European companies,'' he said. ``The world better get used to it.''

Rumsfeld flees France fearing arrest US embassy officials whisked Rumsfeld away yesterday from a breakfast meeting in Paris organized by the Foreign Policy magazine after human rights groups filed a criminal complaint against the man who spearheaded President George W. Bush's "war on terror" for six years.

Under international law, authorities in France are obliged to open an investigation when a complaint is made while the alleged torturer is on French soil.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 82.0 to 80.9 in October.
  

• Australia’s leading indicators rose 0.7%.
  

• The USDA said that beef production totaled 2.09 billion pounds in September, down 3% YoY.
  

• The USDA said pork production totaled 1.75 billion pounds in September
  

• Countrywide Financial lost $1.2 billion in the third-quarter, but its shares rose after the largest U.S. mortgage lender said it expects to be profitable in the fourth quarter and in 2008.
  
  
  

• While Bush, and G.O.P. candidates led by Romney, take hostilities against Iran to new highs, the dollar makes new lows, crude oil and gold make new highs.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. New home sales fell 23% YoY.
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders fell 1.7% in September, weaker than expected. Excluding transport orders rose 0.3% in September.
  

• The DoE said underground supplies of natural gas were up 68 billion cubic feet last week to 3.443 trillion cubic feet.
  

• China’s GDP rose 11.5% QoQ.
  

• The U.S. Fed is close to agreeing to changes in its communication strategy, including quarterly publication of internal forecasts, but it will not adopt an inflation target any time soon.
  
  

• Microsoft said first-quarter earnings rose 23 percent, exceeding estimates.
  
  

• Crude oil rose above $90 after a report showed a drop in U.S. stockpiles and the U.S. imposed new sanctions against Iran. This is prompting new fears about supplies ahead of the peak winter season.
  

• For the eighth month Japan's consumer prices fell 0.1%, a sign that deflation lingers in the world's second-largest economy.
  

• Japan’s industrial production fell 1.4 %
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Existing home sales fell 8.0% from August's pace -- the lowest since records began in 1999.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 5.3 million barrels to 316.6 million barrels,
  Supplies of gasoline were down 2.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of heating oil were up 900,000 barrels.
  

• Australia’s consumer prices rose 0.9% QoQ and up 2.9% YoY.
  

• Germanys leading economic indicators fell 0.8% in August.
  

• The Commodity Futures Trading Commission told Congress on Wednesday the electronic Intercontinental Exchange's natural gas contract should be subject to more government oversight.
  
  

• Merrill Lynch announced that its US mortgage-related losses were not $4.5bn but $7.9bn.

The cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could total $2.4 trillion
A previous CBO estimate put the wars' costs at more than $1.6 trillion. This one adds $705 billion in interest, taking into account that the conflicts are being funded with borrowed money.

Quick Overview

• Retail sales in Canada rose 0.7%
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area rose 0.3% MoM and 5.1% YoY.
  

• YoY Japan's trade surplus rose 62.7%.
  
  

U.S. lawmakers to mull subprime bankruptcy relief Under the plan, bankruptcy judges could extend the life of a home loan, change the interest rate or simply mark down the loan amount. Judges currently have that broad authority to modify other types of debt, including money owed on credit cards or auto payments.

Updates resume "after" San Diego fires, hopefully within the next couple of days!

Quick Overview

• Turkey is serious about sending troops into northern Iraq to hunt down Kurdish separatist rebels hiding there and is not bluffing, a senior minister said.
  
  
  
  

• The dollar fell to a 33-year low against the Canadian, hit a record low ageist the Euro, a poor housing market, so-so corporate earnings, oil prices at $90 -- and Wall Street took a hit.
  
  

• U.K.'s GDP rose 0.8% QoQ and up 3.3% YoY
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY
  
  
  

• USDA's Keith Collins believes US corn acreage will decline in the coming year to 87 million, cotton to 10 million. Collins estimates US wheat plantings at 64 million acres, soybeans at 70 million - both increases from the previous year.
  
  

• There is talk that Russia will increase its export duty on wheat to 30%. Currently Russia plans a 10% duty on wheat exports to take effect next month.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 10.967 million head of cattle on feed on October 1st, down 3.7% YoY. Placements rose 9% YoY and marketing’s fell 3%.
  
  

• The USDA attaché expects Brazil’s sugar production in 2007-2008, up 2%. He also expects Brazil’s ethanol production up 16%.
  

• YoY the U.S. cocoa grind, at 94,179 tons, fell 14%.