The cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could total $2.4 trillion
A previous CBO estimate put the wars' costs at more than $1.6 trillion. This one adds $705 billion in interest, taking into account that the conflicts are being funded with borrowed money.

Quick Overview

• Retail sales in Canada rose 0.7%
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area rose 0.3% MoM and 5.1% YoY.
  

• YoY Japan's trade surplus rose 62.7%.
  
  

U.S. lawmakers to mull subprime bankruptcy relief Under the plan, bankruptcy judges could extend the life of a home loan, change the interest rate or simply mark down the loan amount. Judges currently have that broad authority to modify other types of debt, including money owed on credit cards or auto payments.

Updates resume "after" San Diego fires, hopefully within the next couple of days!

Quick Overview

• Turkey is serious about sending troops into northern Iraq to hunt down Kurdish separatist rebels hiding there and is not bluffing, a senior minister said.
  
  
  
  

• The dollar fell to a 33-year low against the Canadian, hit a record low ageist the Euro, a poor housing market, so-so corporate earnings, oil prices at $90 -- and Wall Street took a hit.
  
  

• U.K.'s GDP rose 0.8% QoQ and up 3.3% YoY
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY
  
  
  

• USDA's Keith Collins believes US corn acreage will decline in the coming year to 87 million, cotton to 10 million. Collins estimates US wheat plantings at 64 million acres, soybeans at 70 million - both increases from the previous year.
  
  

• There is talk that Russia will increase its export duty on wheat to 30%. Currently Russia plans a 10% duty on wheat exports to take effect next month.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 10.967 million head of cattle on feed on October 1st, down 3.7% YoY. Placements rose 9% YoY and marketing’s fell 3%.
  
  

• The USDA attaché expects Brazil’s sugar production in 2007-2008, up 2%. He also expects Brazil’s ethanol production up 16%.
  

• YoY the U.S. cocoa grind, at 94,179 tons, fell 14%.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless aid jumped by 28,000 last week, more than expected and the biggest increase for any week since February.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing dropped from 10.9 to 6.8 in October, a sign of slower growth.
  

• U.S. leading indicators rose 0.3% in September
  

• U.K. Retail sales rose 0.6% in September, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 39 billion cubic feet last week to 3.375 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are down 2%
  

• Wheat sales have reached 82.6% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared to 51.3% on average over the last five years.

Housing Downturn Takes Toll on Cities’ Revenue
In Palm Beach County, Fla., foreclosures rose to 4,830 in 2006 from 3,049 in 2005. And in just the first eight months of this year, the number hit 7,544, said Sharon R. Bock, the county’s comptroller and clerk. Vacant job positions in Ms. Bock’s office are going unfilled, and “it could get worse,” she said.

OJ Prices Jump As Citrus Land Shrinks
Florida lost 127,182 acres (17 percent of its total) in the 2006 crop census -- the second worst drop in history behind only a January 1986 freeze. The net loss was higher than the previous eight years combined.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture does not tie specific reasons to any acre lost, but growers and other industry officials say the problems are plain. Canker and greening forced the destruction of tens of thousands of acres of trees in the past decade, and bad hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005 raked groves. Some farmers sold to developers when land prices skyrocketed the past few years, though recent slowing in the housing market probably stymied that trend.

Britain to claim more than 1m sq km of Antarctica
The United Kingdom is planning to claim sovereign rights over a vast area of the remote seabed off Antarctica, the Guardian has learned. The submission to the United Nations covers more than 1m sq km (386,000 sq miles) of seabed, and is likely to signal a quickening of the race for territory around the south pole in the world's least explored continent.

The claim would be in defiance of the spirit of the 1959 Antarctic treaty, to which the UK is a signatory. It specifically states that no new claims shall be asserted on the continent. The treaty was drawn up to prevent territorial disputes.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Housing starts were down 10.2% MoM and down 31% YoY.
  

• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY
  

• The adjustment from recent financial market turmoil is "far from over" though the situation seems to have improved, a senior New York Federal Reserve Bank official said.
  

• The Fed’s Beige Book said economic activity continued to expand in all Districts in September and early October but the pace of growth decelerated since August.
  

• The USDA is reporting the first Asian soybean rust finding in Indiana, in addition to several new cases in Iowa and Missouri

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.8 million barrels to 321.9 million barrels.
• Supplies of gasoline rose 2.8 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.2 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.8% to 87.3% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.5% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 0.9% YOY
  The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 500,000 barrels.
  
  

• The U.K.'s unemployment rate remained at 5.4%, down 0.2% YoY.
  
  

• The International Monetary Fund said that they expect world GDP to increase 5.2% in 2007 and 4.8% in 2008.

Life is harder now, some experts say

The basics, according to Warren, now take up close to three-fourths of every family's spending power (it was about 50 percent in 1973), leaving precious little left over at the end of the month — and leaving many families with no cushion in case of a job loss or health crisis.

Quick Overview

• Foreign investors slashed their holdings of US securities by a record amount as the credit squeeze intensified, according to the latest Treasury figures. Foreign investors sold $34.9 billion of U.S. securities in August while U.S. investors bought $34.5 billion of foreign securities. Overall $163 billion left the U.S. in August.
  
  

• U.S. industrial production was up 0.1% in September
  

• YoY consumer prices in the U.K. rose 1.8%.
  

• YoY consumer prices in the Euro area rose 2.1%.
  

• Canada met and kept its rate unchanged at 4.5%
  

• Manufacturing sales in Canada fell 1.7% in August
  

• Japan's housing starts fell 43% in August. The government began requiring stricter inspections to protect new homes from earthquake damage.
  

• Southern California home sales fell in September to the lowest level in two decades. It was the slowest month since the firm began keeping records in 1988, DataQuick said. The previous low was in February 1995 when 12,459 homes sold.
  

• Intel profits rose 43 %, beating estimates.
  
  

• There's been another round of new record highs for crude oil on fears of an escalating conflict between Turkey and Kurds in northern Iraq.
  

Quick Overview

• Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday that a weaker dollar would have some inflationary impact but that expectations for slower growth may stem price rises.
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 14.7 to 28.8 in October.
  

• Canada's index of leading indicators rose 0.4% in September.
  

• The World Trade Organization ruled the U.S. provides illegal subsidies to cotton growers, giving Brazil the right to impose sanctions on up to $4 billion worth of U.S. goods.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Producer prices rose 1.1% in September and 4.4% YoY.
  

• U.S. Retail sales rose 0.6% in September. Without transport sales rose 0.4%
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area rose 1.2% and 4.3% YoY.
  

• Industrial production in India rose 10.7% YoY.
  

• The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn increased from 1.675 to 1.997 billion bushels.
  Soybeans are unchanged at 215 million bushels.
  Wheat was lowered from 362 to 307 million bushels.
  Sugar increased from 1.802 to 1.899 million tons.
  Cotton increased from 6.2 to 6.4 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn increased from 105 to 110 million tons.
  Soybeans increased from 50 to 51 million tons.
  Wheat was reduced from 112 to 107 million tons.
  Cotton increased from 52 to 55 million bales.
  

• The USDA estimates the 2007-2008 Florida orange crop at 168 million boxes, up from 129 million boxes YoY. Juice yield is predicted at 1.60 gallons a box, down from 1.65 gallons per box YoY.
  

• The income gap between the wealthiest and poorest Americans grew to its widest level since the 1920s
  

• China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, rose to $1.434 trillion in Q3.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services shrank 2.4%.
  

• Australia's unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%.
  

• The International Coffee Organization kept its guess of 2007-2008 world production and consumption unchanged at 114 and 122 million bags.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil supplies fell 1.7 million barrels to 320.1 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.0 million barrels
  Gasoline demand fell o.4% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 1.3% YoY
  Underground supplies of natural gas rose 73 billion cubic to 3.336 trillion cubic feet.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• Consumer confidence in Australia fell 0.3%.
  
  

• The Baltic Dry Index passed 10,000 for the first time since its inception in 1985.
  

• Crude oil rose on speculation that Turkish forces may attack Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq
  

Global warming hits Cereal production hard
According to the first study on the impact of climate change on global food production from 1981 to 2002, fields of wheat, corn and barley throughout the world have produced a combined 40 million tonne less a year because of the increase in temperatures caused by human activities.

....”Most people tend to think of climate change as something that will impact the future, but this study shows that warming over the past two decades has already had real effects on the global food supply,” said Christopher Field, co-author of the study and director of Carnegie Institution's department of
global ecology.

Quick Overview

• The Dow and S&P 500 closed at records after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed inflation expectations were contained, leaving open the question of whether another rate cut is near.
  
  

• Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President William Poole said the deprecation of the dollar should not hit inflation, owing to the limited pass-through from the currency via import prices.
  
  
  
  

• India has extended its export ban of wheat for an indefinite period, while allowing the restriction-free import of wheat indefinitely .
  
  

• Heating oil customers will pay an average of 22 percent more this winter than last and natural gas customers will pay 10 percent more, the Energy Department estimated.
  
  

Study: GM corn might affect ecosystems
Assistant Professor Todd Royer said the study suggested pollen and other plant parts containing toxins from genetically engineered Bt corn are washing into streams near cornfields.
The researchers determined consumption of Bt corn byproducts produced increased mortality and reduced growth in caddisflies -- aquatic insects that are related to the pests targeted by the toxin in Bt corn.
Royer noted caddisflies are a food resource for higher organisms, such as fish and amphibians.
"If our goal is to have healthy, functioning ecosystems, we need to protect all the parts," said Royer. "Water resources are something we depend on greatly."

Quick Overview

• U.K.’s Producer prices rose 2.7% YoY.
  

• Factory orders in Germany rose 1.2%
  

EPA Asked to Regulate Ship Emissions
Marine vessels are responsible for nearly 3 percent of the world's greenhouse gases — equal to the amount generated by all cars in the U.S. — and ship emissions are projected to grow by more than 70 percent by 2020 as global trade expands, according to the petitions.

"If the U.S. is to do its part in reducing the threat of global climate disruption, then EPA must limit the global warming emissions from ships that enter the ports of the United States," Brown said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 16,000 last week to 317,000, more than expected.
  

• U.S. factory orders fell 3.3% in August.
  

• The Bank of England and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged.
  

• Brazil predicted that the soybean crop will total 59.7 million tons in 2007-2008, up slightly from this year's harvest. They also predicted a 52.3 million ton corn crop, up from 51.0 million tons this year.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 57 billion cubic feet to 3.263 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are down 2% YoY.
  

• Canada estimated its wheat crop at 20.64 million tonnes, up slightly from the July guess of 20.3 million tonnes. This compares to 25.27 million tonnes last year.
  
  

• So far this year, Asian soybean rust has been found in 162 U.S. counties. More than likely not causing much damage to this year's crop.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management said its index of services dropped from 55.8 to 54.8, about as expected.
  

• Democratic leaders in the U.S. Congress called for the appointment of a "mortgage czar" to help stem a jump in foreclosures.
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 0.7% in August.
  

• Retail sales volume in the Euro area rose 0.1% in August, and 1.0% YoY.
  

• Nine environmental groups called for annual investments of 1 billion reals to bring destruction of the Amazon rain forest to a halt by 2015.
  

• AWB Ltd. estimates the Australian wheat crop at 13 million tons.
  

• The U.S. Grain Council estimates China's corn crop at 139 million tons ( 5.5 billion bushels), down 6 million tons from last year.
  

• Brazils coffee crop needs rain, but the forecast is sunny and dry for the next ten days.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 1.2 million barrels to 321.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of Gasoline were down 100,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil down 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 86.9% to 87.5% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.1% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.4% YoY
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said that its pending homes sales index was down 6.5%
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro area was 6.9% in August.
  YoY producer prices in the Euro area were up 1.7%.
  

In Wiki-Politics, Ron Paul and Mike Gravel Lead the Field
At this time during the run up to the last presidential election, Wikipedia was in its infancy. In July of 2003, the online encyclopedia attracted less than half a million US visitors. Fast forward four years. In July of 2007 over 41 million people, or 1 in 4 people online in the US, visited the site. Wikipedia is now the 12th most visited website and is likely to play a significant role in informing and influencing those who will choose our next president.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing index dropped from 52.9 to 52.0 in September.
  
  

• Japan's Tankan index was unchanged at +23 in September, better than expected
  

• Manufacturing in Europe fell from 54.3 to 53.2 in August.

Commodities Head for Biggest Monthly Increase in 32 Years (Bloomberg)
The 19-commodity Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index was up 8.7 percent this month, the most since July 1975. Wheat climbed to a record in September amid a global grain shortfall, boosting corn and soybeans. Oil also hit a record, and gold reached a 27-year high. The Federal Reserve cut borrowing costs to bolster the U.S. economy, sending the dollar tumbling.

Quick Overview

• The PCE deflator, a core measure of consumer prices, rose 1.8%.
  

• U.S. Personal incomes rose 0.3% in August and consumer spending rose 0.6%, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. Census Bureau said construction spending was up 0.2% from July's pace. YoY construction spending is down 3.3%.
  

• The Chicago purchasing-managers' index rose from 53.8 to 54.2
  

• GDP in Canada rose 9.2% in July and 2.5% YoY.
  

• YoY Japan’s household spending rose 1.6%
  YoY Japan’s Industrial production rose 3.4%.
  Japans unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 3.8.
  YoY consumer prices in Tokyo fell 0.2%
  

• The USDA said that, on September 1, 2007:
  Corn stocks totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 34% YoY.
  Soybean stocks totaled 573 million bushels, up 27% YoY.
  Wheat stocks totaled 1.72 billion bushels, down 2% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that all wheat production will total 2.07 billion bushels in 2007, down 2% from the August forecast.
  

• The International Grains Council cut its global wheat production forecast from 607m tonnes to 601m tonnes and cut its estimate for Australian output to 13.5m tons.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• New homes sales in the U.S. dropped 8.3 percent to an annual pace of 795,000 in August. The median price dropped 7.5 % YoY.
  

• The Commerce Department reported the economy grew at 3.8% down from 4% in the previous quarter. YoY GDP remained up 1.9%,

• The GDP's price index was up an annual rate of 2.6% in the second quarter, down from a 4.2% gain in the first quarter.
  

• Germany's unemployment rate improved to 8.8% in September.
  

• Canada posted a budget surplus of C$13.8 billion in the 2006-07
  

• To protect domestic supplies Ukraine will begin limiting wheat exports on November 1st. Ukraine is the world's seventh largest exporter of wheat.
  

• Russia plans to impose a 10% wheat export duty by the end of November.
  
  

• The EU voted yesterday to end a rule that farmers leave 10% of their land fallow, which could cause an increase of some 10 million tonnes in grain production next year.

Interesting audio on wheat

Quick Overview

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 4.9% in August, excluding transportation, orders were down 1.8%.
  

• U.K.'s GDP rose 3.1%
  

• Norway hiked key interest rates by 0.25% to 5%
  

• The U.S. DOE said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.8 million barrels to 320.6 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 600,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 700,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 89.6% to 86.9%
  Gasoline demand rose 0.4%
  Distillate demand fell 1.2%.
  

• Gold prices should top $800 per ounce by the end of the year, Barrick’s chief Greg Wilkins said. He suggested the gold market was currently overestimating world gold production.
  

• Global supplies of platinum may fall short of demand by 205,000 ounces this year, Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd said.
  

• Gold, in custody at exchange traded funds, reached 823 metric tons, greater than the holdings of the Bank of Japan.
  --------------------------------------
  
  9/25/07

• U.S. existing home sales were at an annual rate of 5.50 million units in August, down 4.3% from July's pace. At the current rate there is a 10-month supply -- the most in 18 years.
  

• U.S. consumer confidence fell from 105.6 to 99.8 in September, weaker than expected
  

• Consumer spending in France rose 1.0% in August
  

• German business confidence fell from 105.8 to 104.2 in September
  
  

• China will increase its state reserves for soybeans and edible vegetable oil to an appropriate level to guarantee the market supply, the State Council said Monday. Domestic food prices, pushed China's consumer-price inflation to 6.5% in August. Domestic production is projected to fall to an eight-year low.
  
  

• Coffee rose to the highest price since April 2005 on speculation that rains in Brazil this weekend may not be enough to limit damage from a prolonged dry spell.
  

• Australia's Agriculture Minister Peter McGauran said Wednesday production from the new wheat crop might be about the same level as the drought-hit crop in 2006, which produced 10 million metric tons. Australia's domestic wheat demand is about 7 million tons.
  
  

Updates resume Sep. 26

Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright
The danger is that this could now accelerate as the yield gap between the United States and the rest of the world narrows rapidly, leaving America starved of foreign capital flows needed to cover its current account deficit - expected to reach $850bn this year, or 6.5pc of GDP.

...Jim Rogers, the commodity king and former partner of George Soros, said the Federal Reserve was playing with fire by cutting rates so aggressively at a time when the dollar was already under pressure

The new British empire? UK plans to annex south Atlantic Britain is preparing territorial claims on tens of thousands of square miles of the Atlantic Ocean floor around the Falklands, Ascension Island and Rockall in the hope of annexing potentially lucrative gas, mineral and oil fields, the Guardian has learned.

U.S. DoD To Outsource $15B War on ‘Narcoterror’
“This gives us the opportunity to bid on this work,” said Linda Hartwig, an ARINC spokeswoman. “We don’t have a lot of details yet, but we do know that this is an expansion of what [the United States] is already doing to fight drug trafficking, and that 80 percent of the work will be overseas.”
Hartwig said the other participating vendors are defense giants Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon, and security contractor Blackwater USA. Blackwater confirmed its participation, but the other three vendors did not respond to inquiries.
The vendors will compete for a series of task orders covering a wide range of products and services. These could include anti-drug technologies and equipment, special vehicles and aircraft, communications, security training, pilot training, geographic information systems and in-field support.

Quick Overview

• A big overhang of property will bring U.S. house prices down further, but it is too early to say if the economy will sink into recession, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying.
  

• Canada's retail sales fell 0.8% in July.
  

• Mexico holds rates at 7.25% on signs of slowing U.S. Economy.
  

• Inflation in India slips to 3.32%, a 5-year low. Forex reserves at $232.187 bn
  

• The USDA said that YoY pork production totaled 1.85 billion pounds in August, up 4%. Beef production totaled 2.45 billion pounds.
  

• The USDA said there were 457.9 million Lbs of frozen pork in storage on August 31st, up 10% YoY. Frozen bellies totaled 22.7 million pounds, up 90% YoY.
  

• The USDA said there were 10.302 million head of cattle on feed on September 1st, down 6.2% YoY. August placements were down 7.5%, marketing’s unchanged.
  

• According to the Ag Department, the total commercial red meat production during August was a record 4.326 billion pounds, up 10% from last month and 2% more than last year.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 760 million pounds of frozen orange juice in storage, down 14% YoY.
  
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• Canada's wholesale sales up 2.0% from June.
  

• Retail sales in the U.K. rose 0.6%.
  

• China plans to restrict fuel made from agricultural products and cut import tariffs to reduce food inflation. Corn demand is expected up 14.5% by 2010, while output is expected to rise 3.5%. China's overall inflation rate in August was a 10-year high of 6.5%. China's food-price inflation however was 18.2%, 34.6% for vegetable oils and 495 percent for meat.
  

• YoY, on September 19, cocoa stocks in New York Board of Trade warehouses fell 14% to 3.77 million bags. There are also concerns about the presence of black pod disease in the Ivory Coast.
  

• Credit Suisse, raised its 12-month forecast for gold, silver and other precious metals because of supply shortfalls and a decline in the value of the dollar.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Consumer prices fell 0.1% in August.
  

• U.S. August’s housing starts fell 2.6% from July's pace -- the lowest in twelve years. YoY housing starts are down 24%.
  

• YoY consumer prices in Canada rose 1.7% in August.
  

• The Bank of Japan kept interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.8 million barrels to 318.8 million barrels. Supplies of gasoline rose 400,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 600,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell last week from 90.5% to 89.6% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.5% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 1.0% YoY.
  
  

• The World Energy Counsel raised its worldwide estimate of proven and recoverable conventional oil reserves by 117 billion barrels to 1.215 trillion barrels.
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Fed reduced the federal funds rate from 5.25% to 4.75% and the discount rate from 5.75% to 5.25%.
  

• The U.S. producer price index was down 1.4% in August -- up 2.2% YoY
  

• The capital flow into the U.S. was $103.8 billion in July, up from $34.4 billion in June.
  

• The National Association of Home Builders said its index of homebuilders expectations fell from 22 to 20 in September.
  

• The House approved a plan to expand federal backing of mortgages in hopes of helping homeowners avoid foreclosure.
  

• YoY U.K.'s consumer prices rose 1.8% in August.
  

• Japan's index of services was down 0.5% in June.
  

Frank May Win `Tougher Than Expected' Subprime-Lending Limits
``There may be no practical ability, even with extreme care and diligence, to avoid funding defective loans,'' Miller says. ``And if that's the case, the only recourse is for investors and others to stop providing liquidity to the market.''

Quick Overview

• The New York Fed regional manufacturing index fell from 25.1 to 14.7 in September.
  

• Mortgage lender Northern Rock fell to seven year low-- customers continue to withdraw savings following a bale-out by the Bank of England.
  

• An early freeze across the upper Midwest on Saturday may have hurt soybeans. The cold snap drove temperatures to record lows of 24 degrees in some sections of Wisconsin, and 28-32 degrees across much of northern Iowa. This may cut 10 million to 15 million bushels from 2.6 billion bushels the USDA forecast.
  

• Australia’s Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics cut its wheat harvest forecast to 15.5 million metric tons in the harvest starting October. This compares to its June estimate of 22.5 million tons.

• Reports this morning talk of significant crop decline in major growing regions of China because of severe drought.
  

• Arabica Coffee futures rose to a one-month high. Traders expect tighter supplies ahead of the Vietnam harvest.
  
  

Greenspan Sees Political Pressure on Fed as Inflation Picks Up
To keep inflation under 2 percent, ``the Fed, given my scenario, would have to constrain monetary expansion so drastically that it could temporarily drive up interest rates into the double-digit range not seen since the days of Paul Volcker,'' Greenspan wrote.

Updates resume Sep. 16

Judge strikes down part of Patriot Act
A federal judge struck down a key part of the USA Patriot Act on Thursday in a ruling that defended the need for judicial oversight of laws and bashed Congress for passing a law that makes possible "far-reaching invasions of liberty."

Quick Overview

• U.S. non-farm payrolls fell 4,000 in August, the first decline in four years. Payrolls for June and July were reduced by 81,000. Most job losses came from the auto and construction sectors.
  

• The weak U.S. housing sector warrants close attention to assess the economic outlook as well as its recent disruptive effects on financial markets, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said on Saturday.
  
  
  

• Struggling lender Countrywide Financial will cut 12,000 jobs as it struggles to deal with challenging conditions in the mortgage industry, the company said.
  
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.0% in August, still the lowest in 33 years.

Quick Overview

• Bank of Canada reverses liquidity move by tightening collateral requirements for financial institutions participating in special liquidity operations, says credit markets have settled down.
  

• Retail sales increased 2.9% in August, the International Council of Shopping Centers said, exceeding the group's forecast of 2.5%.
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 19,000 last week to 318,000, less than expected.
  

• The Bank of England met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected.
  

• China increased reserve requirements for banks from 12.0% to 12.5% -- the seventh increase this year.
  

• Australia's unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3% in August.
  

• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.0%, as expected.
  

• Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and National City Corp. said more than 2,000 workers will be laid off as the financial institutions scale back their struggling mortgage businesses.
  

• Manufacturing orders in Germany fell 7.1% in July, weaker than expected.
  
  

• The Labor Department said that non-farm productivity was up an annual rate of 2.6% in the second quarter of 2007, the best gain in almost two years. Unit labor costs were up an annual rate of 1.4% in the second quarter, less than expected.
  

• U.S. ethanol demand is at a record high of 443,000 barrels a day in June.
  U.S. ethanol production capacity is currently 6.7 billion gallons, rising to 6.6 billion gallons in 2009.
  

• The U.S. DOE said that:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 3.9 million barrels to 329.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of underground natural gas rose 36 billion cubic feet to 3.005 trillion cubic feet.
  U.S. refinery use rose from 90.3% to 92.1%
  Gasoline demand rose 0.5% YoY
  Distillate demand was unchanged YoY.
  

• Allendale expects the U.S. Department of Agriculture to raise its 2007/08 marketing year production estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat. The report is next Wednesady.
  FC Stone also sees a slight increase in corn and soybean production estimates.
  
  

• USDA Chief Economist Keith Collins says growing demand for ethanol is not only driving grain prices higher in the U.S., but around the world.
  
  

Sean Shammity vs. Ron Paul

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said pending home sales were down 12.2% in July -- the lowest in six years.
  

• The Fed’s Beige Book did note, that tighter lending standards were having a noticeable effect on housing and that is a concern.
  

• The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.50%,
  

• The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 6.50%,
  

• Retail sales volume in the Euro zone (13) rose 0.1% in July.
  

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing fell from 53.8 to 52.9
  

• U.S. Construction spending was down 0.4% from June.
  

• GDP in Australia rose 0.9% in the second quarter and up 4.3% YoY.
  

• GDP in the Euro zone rose 0.3% in the second quarter and up 2.5% YoY.
  

• The International Cocoa Organization said world production of cocoa in 2006-2007 totaled 3.435 million tons. Resulting in 1.708 million tons of ending stocks or 48% of annual use.
  

• South African gold production fell an annual 7.5% in the second quarter as the quality of ore declined, the country's Chamber of Mines said.
  
  

• December Wheat rose 30 cents (limit) to 805 ½.. Traders had expected India to buy only a portion of the 530,000 tonnes offered at a tender last week. Instead, India bought 795,000 tonnes over the weekend, and Russia is considering limiting wheat exports to protect their domestic supply.
  

UN says rate of livestock breed extinction is 'alarming'
Among the breeds the International Livestock Research Institute says are most at risk are the Ankole cattle, whose drought resistance and rich milk made them prized animals in East and Central Africa until the arrival of European dairy cows.
Similarly, the Red Maasai sheep of East Africa, which have developed genetic resistance to a common parasite, have almost disappeared since the introduction of Dorper sheep from South Africa 15 years ago, the research institute says.