Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims were down 2,000 last week to 322,000.
  

• Canada's wheat crop is estimated at 20.3 million tons, down 20% YoY.
  

• The Bank of Japan voted 8 to 1 to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 23 billion cubic feet to 2.926 trillion cubic feet.

Dollar May Fall to Record Within Six Months, Goldman Sachs Says
The Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to 4.5 percent by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs.
The dollar will fall also because foreign investors will reduce purchases of higher-yielding corporate bonds, said Nordvig.

China fear over 'tainted' US soya
US soya bean exporters said China was trying to "balance things out".

Quick Overview

• The Bank of Japan at its regular 2-day policy meeting that begins today is unanimously expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged.
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro zone rose 4.4% in June, stronger than expected.
  The USDA said there were 459.8 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, up 10% YoY.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 849 million pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage, down 15% YoY.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.9 million barrels to 337.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 5.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 600,000 barrels.
  Gasoline demand was up 0.6% YoY
  Distillate demand was up 2.1% YoY
  

Updates resume August 22

Chart of the Day

Fed Free Reserves

Look Out. This Crunch Is Serious
Incipient panic has reigned in U.S. financial markets over the past couple of weeks, and no wonder. Some hedge funds have blown up, the country's second-largest mortgage lender has come close to collapse and stocks have fallen. On Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank lowered a key interest rate to help calm things down.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Housing starts were down 6.1% from June's pace and down 20.9% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s retail sales rose 0.7% in July
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the Euro area 13 were up 1.8%
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 21 billion cubic feet last week to 2.903 trillion cubic feet.
  
  
  

• Gold demand in India rose 72 percent in the first half of the year to 528 tonnes, and China's consumption rose 11 percent so far in 07.
  
  

Quick Overview

• St. Louis Fed President William Poole said financial market disruptions had not yet hit the U.S. economy and the central bank should not act before its meeting on Sept. 18, Bloomberg television said.
  
  

• U.S. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, and up 2.4% YoY.
  
  

• The U.S. Treasury Department said that foreign net capital inflow totaled $58.8 billion in June, down from $107.3 billion in May.
  

• The Federal Reserve said that U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% in July.
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 26.46 to 25.06.
  

• U.K.'s Unemployment rate improved from 5.6% to 5.4%.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 5.2 million barrels to 335.2 million barrels,
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 900,000 barrels.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 2.5% YoY.

Basis Capital Says Yield Fund Loss May Top 80%
The funds ran into trouble by investing in the unrated, riskiest portions of collateralized debt obligations and then leveraging the investment. The portions, also known by bankers as ``toxic waste,'' are first in line for any losses when borrowers fall short on mortgage payments.

Sentinel warns of losses if clients panic
"The (companies) who have money with Sentinel are members of the various exchanges. So the exchanges have an interest to make sure there is no spillover which will effect them," the official said. "They're not doing this purely for charity."

Sentinel Management Group Seeks to Halt Redemptions
Sentinel's clients include so-called futures commission merchants, businesses that manage buy and sell orders for commodities futures contracts. FCMs are required by the CFTC to keep their customers' money segregated from funds they invest on their own behalf. By that measure, Sentinel is 17th in terms of customer money for U.S. FCMs, according to July 31 data from the CFTC.

Flush with Profits from the Iraq War, Military Contractors See a World of Business Opportunities

Since the launch of the "global war on terror," the administration has systematically funneled billions of dollars in public money to corporations like Blackwater USA , DynCorp, Triple Canopy, Erinys and ArmorGroup. They have in turn used their lucrative government pay-outs to build up the infrastructure and reach of private armies so powerful that they rival or outgun some nation's militaries.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Producer prices rose 0.6% in July and up 4.0% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.1% in July and up 2.3% YoY.

• GDP in the Euro area 13 rose 0.3% QoQ, and up 2.5% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s Consumer prices rose 1.9% in July.
  

• Japan's tertiary index of services rose 0.1% in June.
  

• Retail sales in China rose 16.4% YoY
  

• Retail sales in New Zealand's fell 0.4% in June.
  

• The world will see a sugar surplus of 11 million metric tons in 2007-08, surpassing the large 2006-07 world surplus of 10 million tons, U.K.-based Czarnikow.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in July.
  

• Japan GDP rose 0.1% QoQ
  

• Consumer prices in China rose 5.6% YoY, the most in 10 years. China's CPI is mainly being pushed higher by food costs.

Time to sell or what? Maybe check an 'insider' index
He has compiled this index back to the mid-1970s, and found it to have an impressive record in predicting the market's subsequent 12-month return.

Crunch time
The ECB’s move eased the cash crunch—at least temporarily. Overnight rates dropped back to the central bank’s target rate of 4%, and economists praised the speed and effectiveness of its intervention. However, the provision of liquidity is only a short-term measure to restore calm. Even cuts in interest rates, which financial markets are pricing in increasingly aggressively, would not necessarily address the underlying problem. Restoring faith in American mortgage markets, and the cornucopia of investments derived from them, is the bigger challenge.

China's agriculture minister says drought poses 'grave threat' to grain harvest
Drought has hit about 110 million hectares (270 million acres) of arable land, according to the Office of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.
Sun said during a tour of Jiangxi province, where 866,000 hectares (2.1 million acres) of crops have been affected, that the conditions pose a "grave threat" to the autumn harvest, the China Daily reported.

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve joined the European and Asian Central Banks to add cash ($19 billion) to the banking system.
  
  

• YoY Japanese wholesale prices rose 2.1 percent in July -- for the 41st straight monthly increase.
  
  

• The idea that Beijing might use its $1.33 trillion currency reserves as a bargaining chip in trade talks with Washington is (also) unsettling markets.
  
  

• The area of floating ice in the Arctic has shrunk more than in any summer since satellite tracking began in 1979, experts said.
  
  
  

• Japanese corporate failures rose 15.6% in July.
  
  
  

• The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn rose from 1.502 to 1.516 billion bushels.
  Soybeans fell from 245 to 220 million bushels.
  Wheat fell from 418 to 404 million bushels.
  Sugar rose from 1.377 to 1.388 million tons.
  Cotton fell from 5.90 to 5.80 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn fell from 108.4 to 102.2 million tons.
  Soybeans fell from 51.9 to 51.6 million tons.
  Wheat was fell 116.6 to 114.8 million tons.
  Cotton rose from 50.8 to 51.5 million tons.

Bernanke, Paulson Were Wrong: Subprime Contagion Is Spreading
``Housing created a lot of ancillary economic activity and jobs, and now we are in the reverse process,'' says Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago and a former Fed economist.

BOJ pumps 1 trillion yen into money markets in sync with ECB, Fed
The central banks of Japan, the United States and Europe took a coordinated action to provide liquidity for the first time since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States. The size of the BOJ's money injection was larger than usual, according to money market traders.

Quick Overview

• BNP Paribas (France's largest bank) froze investor redemptions from three funds. The news caused more fears about the continued run on funds tied to US subprime mortgages.
  
  

• The European Central Bank loaned 94.8 billion Euros to tone down a credit crunch.
  
  

• The U.S. Treasury said the current $8.965 trillion debt limit will be reached in October.
  
  

• Australia's unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.
  

• New Zealand's unemployment rate improved from 3.7% to 3.6%.
  

• The Bank of Korea raised its rate from 4.75% to 5.00%.
  
  

• The Florida Department of Citrus said inventories of frozen orange juice totaled 73.6 million gallons, down 15% YoY
  

• The International Sugar Organization expects a 2007-2008 world production surplus of 10 million tons.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said supplies of natural gas rose 42 billion cubic feet to 2.882 trillion cubic feet.
  

China's Trade Surplus Likely Jumped Almost 60 Percent in July
``As the U.S. election approaches, the trade relationship with China will get more attention and tensions become more vocal,'' said Adrian Foster, director of capital markets at Dresdner Bank AG in Beijing. ``The big trade surplus number and product-safety concerns are adding fuel to the fire.''

Quick Overview

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.6% in June
  

• U.S. Inventories rose 0.5%.
  

• The California Air Resources Board mandated that gasoline sold in the state include 10% ethanol by the end of 2009. California consumed 1 billion gallons of ethanol this year and the new rules will likely double that figure.
  

• Wheat rose to a record in Chicago, on speculation that demand for U.S. grain will climb because of unfavorable weather for crops in the U.S., Europe, Canada, Australia, Ukraine and Argentina.
  

• Dow-Jones News said this year's drought in China will mean "China is likely to import millions tons more of soybeans in the coming crop year than earlier expected."
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 4.1 million barrels last week to 340.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.9 million barrels.
  Demand for gasoline was up 0.8% YoY
  Demand for distillate rose 4.2% YoY
  

China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales
The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.

US House Approves Renewable Energy Tax Incentives
The Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Tax Act of 2007 includes tax credits and bonds to promote investment in renewable energy production from wind, solar, geothermal, cellulosic ethanol and biofuels, and other critical energy conservation initiatives. The measure passed by a vote of 221-189.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Productivity rose 1.8%.
  

• U.S. Unit labor costs rose 2.1%.
  

• The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged and said that while tightening credit conditions had increased risks, inflation was still its main concern.
  

• YoY Retail sales in the U.K. were up 3.1%.
  

• The International Coffee Organization left its estimate of 2007-2008 world coffee production unchanged at 112.0 million bags. World consumption was raised from 119.5 million bags to 120 million bags.
  
• Australia's central bank announced Wednesday it is raising official interest rates by one-quarter percentage point to 6.5 percent — the first rate movement in nine months.
  

• Japan's bank lending rose 0.3% in July.
  

• Japan's July foreign reserves hit record high of $923 bil.
  

Quick Overview

• The U.K.'s manufacturing index increased from 103.1 to 103.3 in June.
  
  

• The USDA said:
  56% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent, down from 58%
  56% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, down from 58%
  69% of the spring wheat crop is rated good to excellent, up from 68%.
  54% of the cotton crop is rated good to excellent -- unchanged.
  

U.S. Housing Is Among `Biggest Bubbles,' Rogers Says
``This is the only time in world history when people were able to buy houses with no money down and in fact, in some cases, the builders gave them money for a down payment,'' Rogers said. ``So this bubble is the worst we've had in housing and it's going to be the worst before its over cleaning it out.''

Updates resume August 5

Quick Overview

• Treasury’s Henry Paulson said the U.S. government will hit its $8.965-trillion debt limit in early October and asked Congress to raise it.
  

• U.S. Capital markets are losing market share to overseas competitors, but it is the bond market rather than equities that is losing ground to foreign competition, a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed.
  

• The Chinese government increased bank reserve requirements - again.
  

• Japan's industrial production increased 1.2% in June.
  

• The USDA said that:
  58% of the corn crop rated good to excellent, down from 62%.
  58% of the soybean crop rated good to excellent, down from 61%.
  68% of the spring wheat crop rated good to excellent, down from 75%.
  54% of the cotton crop rated good to excellent, down from 56%.
  

Franco Is Still Dead, and Housing Is Still Bust: Caroline Baum

Residential investment, as it's referred to in the gross domestic product accounts, may not be the real threat to the U.S. economy. The danger lies in the fact that ``there's a lot more household debt associated with housing'' than there was with the stock-market bubble, Carson says.

Chart of the Day (3)

Chart of the Day (2)
NYSE Weekly Advancing Issues

Chart Of the Day (1)

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP rose 3.4%.
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment rose from 85.3 to 90.4 in July.
  

• YoY consumer prices in Japan fell 0.2% in June.
  

• Goldman Sachs thinks crude oil prices have the potential to spike to a $100 a barrel by the end of summer unless Middle East production increases.
  
  

Coke named global brand king
Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Marlboro and Microsoft have been named among the top 20 most valuable brands in the world, according to consultancy Interbrand's annual best global brands report.

Hidden U.S. subprime losses may mirror Japan bank crisis
"The Japanese experience of holding large losses as opposed to taking a hit and moving on was a direct cause of the Japanese malaise," ..

Quick Overview

• Wall Street suffered one of its worst losses of 2007, as investors succumbed to worry about the derivatives market.
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders rose 1.4% in June. Excluding transport, orders fell 0.5% MoM.
  

• U.S. New home sales were down 6.6% MoM. For the first half of 2007, new home sales were down 22%.
  

• The poor performance of many mortgage loans will worsen substantially through the rest of the year, according to Moody's.
  

• Home prices in the U.K. increased 0.1% MoM.
  

• The U.S. DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 71 billion cubic feet last week to 2.763 trillion cubic feet.
  

• USDA is reporting the discovery of Asian soybean rust in three fields in Oklahoma, the first findings of rust in that state.

Quick Overview

• Existing homes sales fell in June for a fourth straight month, declining 3.8%, the National Association of Realtors said.
  

• The Federal Reserve's Beige Book said that economic activity continued to expand in all twelve districts.

• The U.S. economy is "performing well" and defaults on commercial and industrial loans by banks remain "low," New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner said.
  

• Consumer prices in Australia rose 1.2% QoQ, and 2.1% YoY.
  

• GDP in South Korea rose 4.9% YoY.
  

• New Zealand's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 8.25 percent.
  

• The Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 1.1 million barrels last week at 351.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 800,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 2.9 million barrels.
  Gasoline demand was up 1.2% YoY
  Distillate demand was up 2.8% YoY
  

$100-a-barrel oil may be only a few months away
The $100-a-barrel oil that Goldman Sachs Group said would prevail by 2009 may be only a few months away.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. economy is not at risk of a credit crunch despite continuing troubles in high-risk subprime mortgages, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser said.
  

• The Feds Richmond's index of manufacturing unchanged at 4.0 in July,
  
  

• Retail sales in Canada rose 2.8% in May.

Ultra-Flexible Fiber Optics on the Way
In standard fiber, the light signal leaks out at bends or turns and "with two 90-degree turns, the signal is lost," Corning spokesman Dan Collins said. "This design relies on nanostructures that serve as a mirror or a guardrail, and as the fiber is turned or bent, the light doesn't leak out. We have wrapped the fiber around a ball point pen and it retains its effectiveness."

Quick Overview

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson said that problems in the subprime mortgage loan sector could be contained and would not hurt the overall economy. He also repeated that a strong dollar was in the U.S. interest and currency values should be set in free and open markets.
  

• The USDA said there were 10.737 million head of cattle on feed on July 1st, down 1% YoY.
  

• The USDA said frozen pork inventories were up 14% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that:
  62% of the corn crop was good to excellent, down from 64% last week.
  61% of the soybean crop was good to excellent, down from 62% last week.
  75% of the spring wheat crop was good to excellent, down from 76% last week.
  56% of the cotton crop was good to excellent, up from 55% last week.
  
  

• F.O. Licht, increased its estimate of the world 2006-2007 sugar crop by 5.5 million tons to 167.3 million tons.
  

• The Agriculture Department sent $1.1 billion in farm payments to more than 170,000 dead people over a seven-year period, congressional investigators say.
  
  

• Starbucks Corp will raise U.S. prices on coffee, lattes and other drinks by an average of 9 cents a cup :((

Dollar's Bear Market Slide More Boon Than Bane for George Bush
The currency has lost 13.2 percent since January 2001, when George W. Bush took office, the most under any president since at least Gerald Ford, who left the White House in 1977. That's based on a Federal Reserve index that tracks the dollar against the currencies of 38 U.S. trading partners, including Germany, Japan and Canada.

Researchers develop inexpensive, easy process to produce solar panels
Researchers at New Jersey Institute of Technology have developed an inexpensive solar cell that can be painted or printed on flexible plastic sheets.
"The process is simple," said lead researcher and author Somenath Mitra, PhD, professor and acting chair of NJIT's Department of Chemistry and Environmental Sciences. "Someday homeowners will even be able to print sheets of these solar cells with inexpensive home-based inkjet printers. Consumers can then slap the finished product on a wall, roof or billboard to create their own power stations."

Quick Overview

• U.S. Index of leading indicators fell 0.3% in June. The index has been down in four of the past six months.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of factory activity fell from 18.0 to 9.2.
  

• U.K.'s Retail sales were up 0.2% in June.
  

• The International Copper Study Group said that in the first four months of 2007, world copper demand exceeded production by 157,000 tons.
  

• Losses in the fast-unraveling subprime lending market could top $100 billion, but the Federal Reserve is taking measures to protect borrowers, according to Fed Chairman Bernanke.
  
  

• Japans earthquake disclosed safety problems that could arise at nuclear-power plants during a powerful earthquake. The fault along which Monday's magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred appears to extend right beneath Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant -- the world's largest atomic power complex.
  
  

• Malaysia's leader called for a massive economic overhaul of the Islamic world to boost its competitiveness so Muslims can reap the benefits of globalization.
  
  

• China is canceling its aluminum import taxes, impose export taxes instead .

U.S. Housing Slowdown Will Lead Fed to Cut Rates, McCulley Says
``This whole subprime crisis has been more of a Wall Street event than it has been a Main Street event, but that's going to change,'' he said. ``You've got overpriced homes and inventory that's half the distance to the moon. Nationwide deflation in home prices'' will follow.

Gulf dead zone to be biggest ever The UN believes the algal blooms are having a significant impact on commercially valuable fish stocks.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in June, up 2.7% YoY.
  

• U.S. housing starts rose 2.3% from May's pace. YoY housing starts are down 26%.
  
  
  
• China's gross domestic product expanded 11.9 % YoY -- the fastest pace in 12 years.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 500,000 barrels last week to 352.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 2.3 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 700,000 barrels.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.3% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 4.4% YoY.
  
  

• MoM Consumer prices in Canada fell 0.2%. YoY prices rose 2.2%