Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors reports U.S. existing home sales down 2.6% from March's pace and the lowest level in over three years. Current inventories of homes for sale represent an 8.4 month supply, the most in 15 years.

• July lumber rose its $10 daily limit.
  

• GDP in the U.K. rose 0.7% in the first quarter and up 2.9% YoY.
  

• Japans consumer prices were unchanged YoY.
  

• YoY goods shipped by truck in the U.S. fell by 2.7 percent in April.
  

• Container volumes on the Asia — Europe trade rose 20% in the first four months of the year.

Bernanke Warned by Real Estate Analysts:
Housing Collapse Is Much Worse Than You Say

"The housing market has softened much more than is being reported" by the Fed, and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says JBREC

Quick Overview

• U.S. New home sales were up 16.2% from March's pace and stronger than expected. YoY new home sales are down 20%. New homes for sale in the U.S. are at a 6.5 month supply.
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders were up 0.6% in April, weaker than expected.
  

• U.S. Jobless claims were up 15,000 last week to 311,000.
  

• The USDA estimates 2007-2008 the world sugar production at 163.3 million tons up from 161.3 million tons YoY. World ending stocks are expected to rise 6.1 million tons to 45.1 million tons, or 29% of use.
  
  

• Taiwan GDP was up 4.2% YoY.
  
  

• Pakistan suspended wheat exports.
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 104 billion cubic feet last week to 1.946 trillion cubic feet.
  

Indians offer personal maths tuition on the web With private tutors costing £25-£50 an hour in Britain, Indian-based companies are now offering online GCSE maths tuition for just £50 a month for unlimited sessions to anyone with a broadband internet connection.

Quick Overview

• Canada's leading indicators was up 0.4%
  

• Reuters - Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday he feared a "dramatic contraction" in Chinese stocks.
  
  

• The DOE said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 2.0 million barrels to 344.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were up 1.5 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were down 900,000 barrels
  Gasoline demand was up 1.2% YoY
  Distillate demand was up 2.6% YoY.
  
  

• USDA estimated Brazil's coffee crop at 36.2 million bags.
  

• More than 60,000 birds have died of an outbreak of bird flu near the capital of Pakistan

1 in 8 Iraqis dies before fifth birthday "Unfortunately, this is becoming common," said Saad Mehdi, 35, a pediatrician at Ibn Al-Baladi.

Quick Overview

• An index of investor confidence in Germany increased from 16.5 to 24.0 in May, the highest score in 11 months.
  

• The U.S. House of Representatives voted to allow the government to sue OPEC for price manipulation -- the White House threatened to veto.
  
  

• The handling capacity of China's ports is expected to hit 8 billion tons and 170 million TEUs (twenty-foot container equivalent units) in 2010. The cargo handling capacity of all China's ports totaled 5.6 billion tons and 93 million TEUs in 2006.

Quick Overview

The Chicago Fed index of national activity rose from -.11 to -.10 in April.

The Foreign Policy of Ron Paul Ron Paul has always believed that foreign and domestic policy should be conducted according to the same principles. Government should be restrained from intervening at home or abroad because its actions fail to achieve their stated aims, create more harm than good, shrink the liberty of the people, and violate rights..
..How unusual, how incredibly strange, that Ron Paul, who has stood for these principles his entire public life, is criticized by some as a radical, outside the mainstream, and influenced by experimental ideas that are marginal at best. And why is he treated this way? Because he takes the ideas of Washington and Jefferson seriously, just as seriously as he takes the idea of freedom itself, and he does so in times when faith in Leviathan remains the dominant political ideology.

Kuwait Drops U.S. Dollar Peg in Blow to Gulf Currency Union
Kuwait unshackled its dinar from the tumbling U.S. dollar on Sunday and switched the exchange rate mechanism to a basket of currencies, throwing plans for currency union with other Gulf Arab oil producers into disarray.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 87.1 to 88.7
  

• The USDA said there were 11.297 million head of cattle on feed in the U.S. on May 1st, down 2.3% YoY. Placements were down 2.8% and marketing’s were up 2.0%.
  

• Canada's retail sales totaled C$34.0 billion in March, up 1.9% MoM and up 5.6% YoY.
  Hong Kong GDP was up 5.6% QoQ.
  

• China raised its one-year lending rate from 6.39% to 6.57%.
  

• China will widen the floating band of yuan against U.S. dollar for daily spot trading on the interbank market from 0.3 percent to 0.5 percent on May 21.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims were down 5,000 last week to 293,000, the lowest in four months.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of regional manufacturing increased from 0.2 to 4.2 in April, stronger than expected.
  

• U.S. Index of leading indicators was down 0.5% in April with eight of the ten components showing a decrease.
  

• Japan's GDP was up 0.6% in the first quarter of 2007 and up 2.0% YoY.
  

• Canada's consumer price index was up 2.2% YoY, down from a 2.3% gain in March.
  

• The International Copper Study Group is forecasting that world production of copper will exceed use by 270,000 tons this year and by 520,000 tons in 2008.
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 95 billion cubic feet at 1.842 trillion cubic feet.
  

• Fed Chairman Bernanke says the central bank is considering tougher rules to crack down on abusive practices by mortgage lenders. But he says the economy should escape without significant harm from the problems in the subprime market.

Ron Paul Said It
Plenty of reasonable people can disagree about foreign policy. What's really strange is when one reasonable position is completely and forcibly excluded from the public debate.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.528 million units in April, up 2.5% MoM and better than expected. For 2007 housing starts are down 26% YoY.
  

• U.S. Industrial production was up 0.7% in April, stronger than expected.
  
  

• U.K.’s Unemployment rate. remained at 5.5% in the first quarter
  

• China's industrial production increased 17.4% YoY.
  

• Greece’s GDP rose 4.6% QoQ
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 1.0 million barrels last week to 342.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were up 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were up 1.6 million barrels.
  Gasoline demand was up 1.0% YoY
  Distillate demand was up 3.1% YoY.
  

U.S. Median Home Price Tumbles to 2-Year Low in Slump

The city with the biggest drop in median home price in the first quarter was Elmira, New York, with a 15 percent decline to $75,300, making it the cheapest housing market in the nation

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in April and 2.6% YoY. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up 0.2% in April and up 2.3% YoY.
  

• New York Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing increased from 3.80 to 8.03 in May.
  

• The National Association of Homebuilders said that its index of homebuilder confidence dropped from 33. to 30 in May, the most pessimistic reading in 15 years.
  
  

• GDP in the Euro area rose 0.6% in the first quarter and 3.1% YoY,
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the U.K. rose 2.8% in April
  

• Japan's machinery orders were down 4.5% in March, weaker than expected.
  

• YoY Indonesia's GDP was up 6.0% in the first quarter
  

• India may consider raising the ethanol content in its gasoline blends to 10% from the current 5%.
  

• Czarnikow expects world sugar production at 162.7 million tons in 2006-2007, exceeding consumption by 6.9 million tons.
  
  

Quick Overview

• Japanese wholesale prices rose 0.8% MoM and climbed 2.2% YoY.
  

• Japan’s current account surplus rose 36.9% -- a record high. On a seasonally adjusted basis the current account surplus rose 63.3% MoM, following a 19.2% monthly decline in February.
  

• Retail sales in New Zealand rose 1.3% MoM.
  

• Producer prices in the U.K. were up 2.5% YoY
  

• The Florida Department of Citrus said there were 78.2 billion gallons of frozen orange juice concentrate in inventory, down 15% YoY.
  

• AAA said U.S. average gasoline prices climbed to a record-high average of $3.073 a gallon.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Producer prices rose 0.7% in April and 3.2% YoY. Excluding food energy, prices were unchanged.
  

• U.S. Retail sales in April fell 0.2% MoM and rose 3.0% YoY.
  

• Producer prices in China were up 2.9% in April from a year ago, up from a 2.7% gain the previous month.
  

• Industrial production in India was up 12.9% YoY.

• Canada's unemployment rate unchanged at 6.1% in April.
  
  

• The USDA estimates 2007-2008 ending stocks of:
  Corn at 947 million bushels, up from 937 million bushels in 2006-2007.
  Soybeans at 320 million bushels, down from 610 million bushels in 2006-2007.
  Wheat at 2.216 billion bushels, up from 2.087 billion bushels in 2006-2007.
  Sugar at 1.34 million tons, down from 1.72 million tons in 2006-2007.
  Cotton at 6.4 million bales, down from 9.5 million bales in 2006-2007.

• The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn is 90 million tons, down from 93 million tons in 2006-2007.
  Wheat is 113 million tons, down from 120 million tons in 2006-2007.
  Cotton at 50 million bales down from 55 million bales in 2006-2007.
  
• Even though US corn ending stocks are estimated to be above last year, the stocks to use ratio is likely to be lower, down to 7.6% from 8.1% for 2006/07.
  
  

• The USDA expects U.S. beef production to for 2008 up 6.7%.
  

• The USDA expects 2008 pork production to be up 0.8%
  

• The USDA estimates the Florida's orange crop at 131 million boxes and juice yield of 1.65 gallons a box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade shortfall rose 10.4 % to $63.9 billion in March.
  

• The Fed’s holdings of Treasury and agency debt kept for overseas central banks rose $8.167 billion in the week ended May 9, to stand at $1.937 trillion.
  

• The European Central Bank met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.75%.
  

• New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.8%.
  

• The Bank of England raised its base rate by 0.25%.

• Australia's unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.4% in April.
  

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected.
  
  

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson said he feared that support for keeping U.S. markets open to foreign investment was breaking down.
  

• Japan's leading indicators out at 40% in March, a sign of slower growth ahead.
  

• Consumer confidence in the U.K. rose from 88 to 90 in April.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 5.6 million barrels last week to 341.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were up 400,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were down 500,000 barrels
  Gasoline demand was up 1.0% YoY
  Distillate demand was up 5.2% YoY.

American dream sours as housing market collapses
Home owners' losses will total an estimated $164 billion (£82 billion), according to the Centre for Responsible Lending, an independent research group.

Quick Overview

• U.S. wholesale sales were up 1.8% in March while inventories were up 0.3%. YoY wholesale sales were up 8.4%.
  

• Australian Retail sales were up 1.1% MoM.
  

• Housing starts in Canada were down 1% MoM.

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve's reported that consumer credit increased at a rapid annual rate of 6.7 percent in March. This is up from February's 2.8 percent growth rate and is the biggest increase since November.
  

• German factory orders were up 2.4% in March and up 9.9% YoY.
  

Regulators Warn Against Currency Trades
The regulators said trading in foreign currencies, especially outside of big exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, is "at best extremely risky, and at worst, plagued by outright fraud."

Bush Approval at New Low, Matches Carter, Poll Says The poll also found that 71 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.

Only Mike Gravel and Ron Paul Get It Both for Republicans and Democrats fence-straddling on the war, let alone calls to "stay the course" are being seen as increasingly dangerous or fatal options.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.5% in April with a gain of 88,000 jobs, the weakest monthly increase in more than two years. Nonfarm payrolls in February were revised up 23,000 while March's figures were reduced by 3,000.
  
  

• Australia reduced its 2007 estimate of core inflation from 2.75% to 2.50%.
  
  

• Brazil's Stock Market broke 50,000 for the first time.
  
  
  

• Brazil expects to produce 5.34 billion gallons of ethanol (from sugar)in 2007, the most ever and up 13% YoY.

• Brazil expects sugar production at 31.3 million tons in 2007-2008, up 5% YoY.
  
  

• Kansas Wheat Quality Tour found surprisingly big crops, saying the wheat in western Kansas should more than make up for the yield losses from freeze-damaged wheat in traditionally high-yielding parts of the state. But how much damaged wheat will be harvested remains a wild card.
  
  

• Crude palm oil's bull run is likely to continue for at least another decade, analysts predicted at an international vegetable oil conference.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims were down 21,000 last week to 305,000, the lowest level in three months.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of U.S. services increased from 52.4 to 56.0 in April, stronger than expected.
  

• The Fed holdings of Treasury and agency debt for overseas central banks rose $772 million in the week ended May 2, to stand at $1.929 trillion.

US proposes global ban on fishing aid
A US proposal for a global ban on billions of dollars in subsidies that drive overfishing of the oceans has won widespread support from World Trade Organisation members and raised hopes for an international pact later this year.

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders were up 3.1% in March and more expected.
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro area fell from 7.3% to 7.2%.
  

• The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged at 6.25%.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 1.1 million barrels to 335.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were down 1.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 900,000 barrels.
  Gasoline demand was up 1.6% YoY
  Distillate demand was up 5.4% YoY.

Quick Overview

• The US manufacturing grew more strongly than expected. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose to 54.7 in April from March's 50.9.
  

• The National Association of Realtors said pending U.S. home sales fell 4.9% in March, more than expected.
  

• Manufacturing in the U.K. fell from 54.2 to 53.9 in April.
  
  

• A new ETF replicating the DAX Global Russia Index started trading. The index is made up of 30 publicly traded companies domiciled in Russia. Symbol RSX.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Personal incomes rose 0.7% in March and consumer spending was up 0.3% -- less than expected.
  

• The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose 2.1% YoY.
  

• The Chicago purchasing managers' index fell from 61.7 to 52.9 in April, weaker than expected.
  

• U.S. Construction spending was at an annual rate of $1.1878 billion in March, up slightly from February's pace. YoY construction spending is down 2.4%.
  

• Canada's real GDP was up 0.4% in February and up 2.1% YoY, more than expected.
  

• YoY consumer prices in the Euro area rose 1.8% in April.
  

• Germany's retail sales fell 0.7% in March, more than expected.
  

• China raised the reserve requirement from 10.5% to 11.0%.
  

• Zuericher Kantonalbank, will launch ETFs for platinum, palladium and silver on May 10.
  

• Mineworkers in Peru went on strike demanding higher pay. (Copper)
  
  

China Shipbuilders, Rivaling U.S. in WWII, to Cut Freight Costs
April 30 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of shipping coal and iron- ore is about to decline as the supply of cargo vessels overwhelms demand.
Japan, China and South Korea will produce so many vessels that shipping costs, now at an all-time high, will fall 40 percent by 2010, according to futures contracts traded privately between banks, transportation companies and hedge funds.

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP rose 1.3% in the first quarter, weaker than expected due to the slow housing sector. YoY real U.S. GDP rose 2.8%. The GDP price deflator rose 4.0% YoY.
  

• The U.S. employment cost index was up 0.8% in the first quarter and up 3.5% YoY.
  

• There is the potential for a downturn in the U.S. economy that could have ripple effects around the world, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen said.
  

• YoY Japans consumer prices fell 0.1%.
  YoY Japans retail sales were down 0.7% while household spending was up 0.1%.
  Japans industrial production fell 0.6% in March
  Japans unemployment rate remained at 4.0%.
  The Bank of Japan left interest rate unchanged at 0.50%,
  

• Mexico increased its overnight interest rate from 7.00% to 7.25%.
  
  

S&P/Case-Shiller: Home Price Declines Show No Signs of Abating
The S&P/Case-Shiller Index, which is one of the best gauges of the housing market out there, hasn’t recorded monthly declines on this level in almost 15 years. Robert Shiller, who’s Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC, and one of the leading authorities on real estate in the country, said that month-to-month declines are also persisting, with 17 out of the 20 cities down from their levels in January. If the chart below was a roller coaster, riders would now be holding on for dear life.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims were down 20,000 last week to 321,000, the lowest in a month.
  

• The U.S. DOE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 18 billion cubic at 1.564 trillion cubic feet.
  
  
  

• The International Grain Council estimates world wheat production for the 2007/2008 season at 623 million tonnes, down 1 million from last month because of freeze damage in the US. World ending stocks are anticipated to rise to 117 million tonnes which would be up 2 million from this year but still down from 134 million tonnes last year.
  
  

• The yen traded near a record low against the Euro before a Japanese government report forecast to show consumer prices fell in March for a second straight month.

Are GM Crops Killing Bees?

..But that could soon change. Since last November, the US has seen a decline in bee populations so dramatic that it eclipses all previous incidences of mass mortality. Beekeepers on the east coast of the United States complain that they have lost more than 70 percent of their stock since late last year, while the west coast has seen a decline of up to 60 percent.

Studies show it's a gold mine at the top
..If you didn't make at least $240 million last year, you didn't make the list.

Quick Overview

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 3.4% in March.
  

• U.S. new home sales were at an annual rate of 858,000 in March up 2.6% MoM, but weaker than expected. For 2007, new home sales are down 23% YoY.
  

• GDP in South Korea rose 4% YoY.
  

• GDP in the U.K. was up 0.7% QoQ. YoY GDP was up 2.8%.
  
  
  

• The U.S. DOE said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.1 million barrels to 334.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were down 2.8 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were down 2.6 million barrels.
  U.S. refinery capacity was at 87.8%, down from 90.4% the previous week.
  
  

• The International Copper Study Group estimates world copper production exceeded consumption by 40,000 tons in January. World mine production was up 9% YoY, total usage was up 6% YoY.
  

• There is concern about dry weather in Australia, China, and Eastern Europe – July wheat closed at a new contract high.
  

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales were at an annual rate of 6.12 million units in March, down 8.4% from the previous month and weaker than expected. YoY Median home prices were down 0.3% in March.
  

• U.S. consumer confidence dropped from 108.2 to 104.0 in April, more than expected.
  

• YoY consumer prices in Australia were up 2.4% in the first quarter, down from a 3.3% gain in the previous quarter.
  

• The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25%.
  

• Canada's composite index of leading indicators was up 0.4% in March.
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area were down 0.7% MoM, and up 4.7% YoY.
  

• India's central bank kept its interest rate unchanged.
  
  
• Canadian farmers intend to plant:
  3.5 million acres of corn this year, up 26% YoY.
  17.1 million acres of spring wheat, down 16% YoY.
  14.8 million acres of canola, up 12% YOY.
  
  
  
  

Yen Climbs After Standard & Poor's Raises Japan's Debt Rating
``This is a sign the economy has returned to normal, following a long period when people lost confidence in Japan,'' said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd. ``As a trading factor, this may have a positive impact on the yen in the long term.''

Quick Overview

• U.K. Retail sales increased 0.3% MoM and 4.5% YoY.
  

• Canadian retail sales rose 0.1% MoM and up 5.2% YoY.
  

• The USDA said there were 11.644 million head of cattle on feed on April 1st, down 1.4% YoY. Placements were up 7%, marketing’s were down 6% YoY.
  

• The USDA said there were 55.3 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage on March 31st, down 10% YoY. Frozen pork supplies totaled 506 million pounds.
  
  

• The Chocolate Manufacturers Association said the U.S. cocoa grind totaled 97,584 tons in the first quarter of 2007, down 7% YoY.
  

• Brazilian increased its estimate of this year's coffee harvest to 32.0 million bags.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 825 million pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage on March 31st, down 18% YoY.

House OKs Bill to Give Investors Say on Executive Pay Bloomberg -- The U.S. House of Representatives approved a measure to give shareholders more say on how companies pay top executives, rejecting amendments by Republicans who said investors already have the power to influence compensation.
The measure, approved 269-134, aims to rein in pay levels House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank and other top Democrats called exorbitant by giving public-company shareholders annual non-binding votes on executive salaries.

Quick Overview

• The Conference Board's U.S. index of leading indicators was up 0.1%
  

• U.S. Jobless claims were down 4,000 last week to 339,000.
  

• Japan's index of services, increased 1.0% in February to a new record high, much stronger than expected.
  

• China's economy grew at a faster than expected 11.1 % pace, powered by exports that have inflamed trade tensions and increased the risk of overheating.
  
  
  

• Canada Core CPI YoY at 2.3% as expected.
  

• The DOE said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 46 billion cubic feet to 1.546 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are down 12%.
  

Global Commodity Price Boom May Last Decades Longer, RBA Says
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging economies' demand for resources may sustain high commodity prices for several decades, Australia's central bank said.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 1.0 million barrels last week to 332.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were down 2.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were down 600,000 barrels.
  In the past four weeks gasoline demand was up 2.5%
  
  

Platinum leaders berate fund launch The world's two largest platinum producers have voiced opposition to the planned launch of a platinum exchange traded fund announced last week by Zurich Cantonal Bank of Switzerland.
Trevor Raymond, head of investor relations at AngloPlat, said the ETF would put upward pressure on prices and would have a negative impact on jewellery demand.

Foreclosures, default notices hit 10-year high
Homes lost to foreclosures in California shot up to 11,033 in the first quarter, an 81.5 percent climb from 6,078 in the previous quarter, according to DataQuick Information Systems. Foreclosures rocketed 802.1 percent from 1,223 in the first quarter last year but remained below the 1996 peak of 15,418.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% in March and up 2.8% YoY. Excluding food and energy costs, prices rose 0.1% in March and up 2.5% YoY
  

• U.S. housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.518 million units up 0.8% from February's, but down 23% YoY. So far in 2007, housing starts are down 30% YoY.
  

• U.S. banking regulators urged lenders on Tuesday to help distressed borrowers unable to make mortgage payments and offered possible incentives to move homeowners to lower-cost loans.
  

• U.S. industrial production was down 0.2% in March and up 2.3% YoY, weaker than expected.
  

• U.K.'s consumer price was up 3.1% YoY, the most in a decade.
  

• Canada's factory shipments were down 0.2% MoM.
  

Quick Overview

• Retail sales rose 0.7% in March, the biggest jump in three months, the Commerce Department said.
  
  

• The U.S. Treasury Department said that in February, foreign investors bought $77.9 billion of long-term U.S. securities while U.S. investors bought $19.8 billion of foreign securities.
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing increased from 1.85 to 3.80 in April.
  

• New vehicle sales in Canada were down 3.7% in February.
  

Updates resume April 15